Morning Report: Decent jobs report

Posted on March 8, 2024 by Brent Nyitray

Vital Statistics:

Stocks are higher this morning after the jobs report. Bonds and MBS are up small.

The economy added 275,000 jobs in February, which was way more than expected. The unemployment rate ticked up from 3.7% to 3.9%, while average hourly earnings rose 0.1%. The headline numbers are indicative of a strong labor market.

January’s payroll number was revised downward substantially, from a gain of 353,000 to a gain of 229,000. The February payroll number was another case of statistical adjustments accounting for the increase, as the number of people with jobs actually fell by 184,000. The number of unemployed people rose by 334k.

The Fed will be happy with the decline in wage growth, and the overall message that the labor market is coming more into balance.

Jerome Powell said yesterday that the Fed is close to cutting rates. “I think we are in the right place,” Powell said of the current stance of monetary policy in a hearing before the Senate Banking Committee. “We are waiting to become more confident that inflation is moving sustainably down to 2%. When we do get that confidence, and we’re not far from it, it will be appropriate to begin to dial back the level of restriction so that we don’t drive the economy into recession.”

When asked about concerns over workers losing their jobs, Powell said: “We’re well aware of that risk, of course, and very conscious of avoiding it,” Powell said. “If what we expect and what we’re seeing – continued strong growth, strong labor market and continuing progress in bringing inflation down – if that happens, if the economy evolves over that path, then we do think that the process of carefully removing the restrictive stance of policy can and will begin over the course of this year.”

These comments helped push the 10 year bond yield to the lowest level in over a month. The Fed Funds futures for March didn’t change, but the June futures are showing a roughly 80% chance of a rate cut.

Filed under: Economy |

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34 Responses

  1. jnc4p's avatar
    jnc4p, on March 8, 2024 at 8:30 am said:

    Worth noting – Rent control law in 2019 leading to bank issues in 2024.

    The story of NYCB is a winding one (Bloomberg’s Max Abelson told it with remarkable clarity), but its central problem comes down to unprofitable loans to landlords — in particular, landlords of rent-subsidized apartments. As of the end of last year, the bank had lent more than $37 billion to multifamily homeowners — a sum that represents about half of its total loan portfolio. (While these are residential properties, the landlords are the ones borrowing money for renovations and buying the buildings, and thus they count as commercial real-estate loans.) For most of NYCB’s history, this was a good business to be in.

    This changed in 2019, when New York State passed the Housing Stability and Tenant Protection Act, a law that blocked the main ways landlords could profit off these apartments. Most rent increases were capped at 2 percent, and other ways landlords were able to make money — application fees, passing along fuel charges — were nixed or curtailed. Landlords were also blocked from using renovations in vacated apartments as a way to bring their rents up to the market rate, a tactic that had led to the loss of an estimated 345,000 affordable units, mostly during the first two Bloomberg administrations.

    https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/can-steve-mnuchin-stop-the-commercial-real-estate-crisis.html

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  2. jnc4p's avatar
    jnc4p, on March 8, 2024 at 11:27 am said:

    Watched the RFK Jr. SOTU response. He makes the MAGA case better than Trump does.

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  3. Let the mutherfuker burn!'s avatar
    Let the mutherfuker burn!, on March 9, 2024 at 5:08 pm said:

    I don’t understand what the U.K. Government has against Tommy Christopher.

    https://twitter.com/TRobinsonNewEra/status/1766556649186054154

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  4. jnc4p's avatar
    jnc4p, on March 9, 2024 at 6:28 pm said:

    NY has to put the National Guard in the subway and this is the priority of the NY AG:

    https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2024/3/8/24093774/big-meat-jbs-lawsuit-greenwashing-climate-new-york

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  5. Let the mutherfuker burn!'s avatar
    Let the mutherfuker burn!, on March 9, 2024 at 7:04 pm said:

    We’ve gone from, “There is no Deep State, Wingnut!” To, “Here’s why it’s great there’s a Deep State, Wingnut!”

    https://redstate.com/mike_miller/2024/03/09/ex-cia-director-suggests-intel-community-might-withhold-sensitive-info-from-trump-if-he-wins-nomination-n2171154

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  6. Let the mutherfuker burn!'s avatar
    Let the mutherfuker burn!, on March 9, 2024 at 7:19 pm said:

    How weak is Biden if he has to grovel at this level in an attempt to shore up his base.

    https://redstate.com/nick-arama/2024/03/09/biden-msnbc-interview-its-just-a-disaster-as-he-digs-deeper-hole-on-illegals-laken-riley-and-israel-n2171165

    The last Democrat incumbent that was this week in their election year was Carter, and Carter had an actual primary opponent. I think LBJ was in a better position than Biden right now.

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  8. jnc4p's avatar
    jnc4p, on March 11, 2024 at 10:17 am said:

    This is hilarious:

    “The ACLU Is Trying to Destroy the Biden NLRB

    from Matt Bruenig’s new publication NLRB Edge

    Freddie deBoer
    Mar 11, 2024″

    https://freddiedeboer.substack.com/p/the-aclu-is-trying-to-destroy-the

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  11. Let the mutherfuker burn!'s avatar
    Let the mutherfuker burn!, on March 12, 2024 at 2:07 pm said:

    Final Turley comment made me laugh.

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  12. Let the mutherfuker burn!'s avatar
    Let the mutherfuker burn!, on March 12, 2024 at 6:23 pm said:

    Best Reader Added Context ever.

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  13. Let the mutherfuker burn!'s avatar
    Let the mutherfuker burn!, on March 12, 2024 at 6:31 pm said:

    Totally different than Trump.

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  14. Let the mutherfuker burn!'s avatar
    Let the mutherfuker burn!, on March 12, 2024 at 6:33 pm said:

    Lol

    LOL squared!

    https://x.com/seanmdav/status/1767555008952971277?s=46&t=vSGsUlnc4rLxcUf7zfUiHg

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  16. Brent Nyitray's avatar
    Brent Nyitray, on March 13, 2024 at 11:38 am said:

    So do people here think this Tik Tok ban is nothing more than a pretext to ban X and Rumble?

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    • Let the mutherfuker burn!'s avatar
      Let the mutherfuker burn!, on March 13, 2024 at 11:43 am said:

      I have no idea. I suppose that it could be but I also suspect that X already is throttling some things and people for political reasons. I don’t really think that Rumble is all that big a concern for the Deep State, it’s reach just isn’t that big.

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    • jnc4p's avatar
      jnc4p, on March 13, 2024 at 2:09 pm said:

      The China link is what gets it majority support from both Republicans and Democrats.

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      • Brent Nyitray's avatar
        Brent Nyitray, on March 13, 2024 at 2:10 pm said:

        I think it is a Trojan Horse for censorship.

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        • jnc4p's avatar
          jnc4p, on March 13, 2024 at 6:10 pm said:

          It’s not a Trojan Horse. It’s the explicit goal. But “China!” is the only thing that can get a majority of elected Republicans and Democrats to agree on who should be censored.

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  18. jnc4p's avatar
    jnc4p, on March 13, 2024 at 6:12 pm said:

    Taibbi goes into the deep history of the Trans craziness

    https://www.racket.news/p/the-dumbest-cover-story-ever

    He finally gets it too:

    “However, the live-and-let-live liberalism that apparently makes me a TARL persuaded me to keep my mouth shut previously, which I now realize was a mistake.”

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