Morning Report: Lousy jobs report

Vital Statistics:

S&P futures4,2059.8
Oil (WTI)64.33-0.37
10 year government bond yield 1.52%
30 year fixed rate mortgage 3.15%

Stocks are flattish this morning after a disappointing jobs report. Bonds and MBS are up.

The economy added 266,000 jobs in April, which was a huge disappointment compared to expectations of about a million. The unemployment rate ticked up to 6.1%. The labor force participation rate increased from 61.5% to 61.7%. Average hourly earnings were up a disappointing 0.3%, however this is due to more lower-paid leisure and hospitality workers getting jobs, which pulls down the average.

The 10-year traded down to 1.48% immediately after the news, but has recovered back above the 1.5% level. Mortgage backed securities are lagging the move, which is typical behavior when the 10 year has a big move one way or the other.

Note that the March payroll number was also revised downward by 146,000 jobs as well. Punch line: this is a lousy report, and the Fed isn’t going to even think about raising rates any time soon.

Apparently Google searches for “when is the housing market going to crash” are up big over the past month.

One of my pet peeves with the business press is the casual way people throw around the term “bubble.” Bubbles are extremely rare events, and housing bubbles happen once or twice a century. For a housing bubble to happen we need everyone – regulators, lenders and borrowers to buy in to the concept that real estate is special and cannot go down in price. Anyone old enough to sign a mortgage doc knows that isn’t the case.

Home prices are up big because we have underbuilt for 15 years and because interest rates are so low. This situation is nothing like 2007 when companies like Washington Mutual were offering negative amortization loans to anyone who could fog a mirror.

We don’t have a housing bubble right now. That said, you could make the argument that we have a sovereign debt bubble, especially overseas where there are still negative yields on the 10-year.

Housing affordability dropped in the first quarter, according to the Wells Fargo / NAHB Housing Opportunity Index. The index compares the typical mortgage payment for a 90 LTV loan at the median house price and calculates how many borrowers would have a 28% front-end DTI or lower. Right now, about 63% of borrowers earning the median income would have a 28 DTI or lower if they bought the median house and put 10% down.

This graph demonstrates how much interest rates play into the calculation. Yes, home prices matter, but they aren’t the only story. People who focus only on prices are missing half the picture.

Rocket was pummeled yesterday on its results and fears of a replay of the Great Pricing War of 2018 between Rocket and crosstown rival United Wholesale. United Wholesale is down 45% year-to-date while Rocket is more or less flat. Fun fact: at current levels, UWMC has a 5.6% dividend yield (at a 31% payout ratio). If you divide Rocket by the $1.11 special dividend it paid in March, you get a 5.8% yield (48% payout ratio). We are getting into REIT territory with these yields. I know mortgage bankers have never gotten love from the Street, but this nuts.

Morning Report: Rocket disappoints

Vital Statistics:

S&P futures4,159-0.8
Oil (WTI)65.33-0.37
10 year government bond yield 1.59%
30 year fixed rate mortgage 3.15%

Stocks are flattish this morning on no real news. Bonds and MBS are up small.

Initial Jobless Claims fell slightly to 493k last week. Meanwhile outplacement firm Challenger, Gray and Christmas reported that there were 22,913 announced job cuts last week.

Productivity increased 5.4% in the first quarter as output increased 8.4% and hours worked rose 2.9%. Unit Labor Costs fell 0.3% as compensation rose 5.1% and productivity rose 5.4%.

Rocket is getting pummeled this morning after reporting first quarter earnings and a slew of investment banks downgraded the name. Volume was up 100% compared to the first quarter of 2020 to $103.5 billion. Earnings per share came in at $1.07. Gain on sale margins increased 49 basis points compared to a year ago to 3.74%. Not sure why the stock is down 14% pre-open, but I haven’t checked out the conference call yet. FWIW, the Street is in a “shoot first and ask questions later” mode when it comes to the mortgage bankers.

New Rez reported first quarter earnings of $0.65 per share. Origination rose 14% sequentially to $27.2 billion. Gain on sale margin slipped QOQ to 143 basis points compared to 157 in the fourth quarter. The company is guiding for Q2 origination to fall to $22 to $24 billion. The company sees its servicing portfolio driving results going forward. The stock is unchanged this morning.

Despite the lousy sentiment for the mortgage banking sector, Genworth is IPO-ing its mortgage insurance arm, setting a price range of $22-$24 per share.

A Federal Judge ruled that the Center for Disease Control overstepped its bounds when it imposed a foreclosure moratorium last year. “It is the role of the political branches, and not the courts, to assess the merits of policy measures designed to combat the spread of disease, even during a global pandemic,” the order states. “The question for the Court is a narrow one: Does the Public Health Service Act grant the CDC the legal authority to impose a nationwide eviction moratorium? It does not.” This ruling won’t affect any state-level moratoriums.

Fed Vice Chairman Richard Clarida said that the Central Bank is comfortable with current policy. “We’re still a long way from our goals, and in our new framework, we want to see actual progress and not just forecast progress,” Clarida said. “As we go into next year and beyond, if there are unforeseen, persistent upward pressures on prices that would move inflation to a level inconsistent with our mandate, we would use our tools to bring it down,” he said. “We don’t see overheating as our baseline. Of course, in any outlook there’s risks.”

Morning Report: The economy added 742k jobs in March

Vital Statistics:

S&P futures4,17720.8
Oil (WTI)66.440.77
10 year government bond yield 1.60%
30 year fixed rate mortgage 3.13%

Stocks are higher as commodity prices continue to rise. Bonds and MBS are flat.

Janet Yellen caused a stir in the markets yesterday when she said that interest rates may have to rise somewhat to prevent overheating in the US economy. She later walked back that comment (the Treasury Secretary is not supposed to be suggesting policy to the Fed), and clarified her statement. Regardless, the Fed Funds futures are handicapping at least a chance of a rate hike this year despite the language out of the Fed that the labor market is nowhere near ready for rate hikes.

The private sector added 742,000 jobs in April, according to the ADP Employment Survey. Roughly a third of these jobs were in leisure / hospitality however employment grew is pretty much every category. Note that the Street is looking for about 940,000 jobs in Friday’s Employment Situation Report, so that estimate could be a touch high.

Mortgage applications decreased modestly last week as purchases fell 3% and refis were basically flat. “There was a mixed bag of action in the mortgage market last week,” said Joel Kan, MBA Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting. “Mortgage rates were slightly higher, refinance applications were essentially unchanged and purchase applications fell for the second straight week. Both conventional and government purchase applications declined, but average loan sizes increased for each loan type. This is a sign that the competitive purchase market, driven by low housing inventory and high demand, is pushing prices higher and weighing down on activity. The higher prices are also affecting the mix of activity, with stronger growth in purchase loans with larger-than-average balances.”

The MBA refinance index is below. You can see we are still quite elevated compared to historical numbers

Factory orders rose 1.1% in March. Part of the uptick we are seeing in inflation is due to inventory restocking. In many ways, this is reminiscent of the economy back before things like just-in-time inventory management and globalization. The economy would expand, companies would aggressively build inventory to compete, inflation would rise, which would trigger a response from the Fed, which would cause a recession and then the cycle would repeat.

For companies, inventory is a big use of cash, so they try to minimize it. Technology and data allowed them to use just as much as was necessary to meet demand, which improved cash flows. The COVID-19 pandemic revealed some of the issues with that model, and perhaps we will see some sort of reversal. These issues won’t necessarily show up in corporate financials as increased costs as much as they will manifest as lost opportunities.

I suspect the re-adjustment to this will take years and this will improve economic performance over the next few years. The big question revolves around commodity prices and whether they trigger inflation. My guess is they will not, as producers will invariably ramp up production and energy demand can be met quickly. People forget that 10 years ago, oil was trading around $125 a barrel. Lots of wells were drilled then that can be turned on pretty quickly.

Commodities rallied hard 10-15 years ago, driven by insatiable demand for everything out of China. We didn’t see a wave of consumer inflation then, though we did see a wave of asset inflation, especially real estate. Regardless, the Fed generally views commodity-push inflation as transitory and will probably not react to it. The economy should be relatively strong over the next few years, driven by inventory build, and housing.

Morning Report: Home prices rise double digits

Vital Statistics:

S&P futures4,164-24.8
Oil (WTI)65.240.87
10 year government bond yield 1.60%
30 year fixed rate mortgage 3.14%

Stocks are lower this morning on overseas weakness. The big trade seems to be to dump tech in favor of early-stage cyclicals. Bonds and MBS are up small.

The share of mortgages in forbearance fell again last week, decreasing by 2 basis points to 4.47% of servicers’ portfolios. Ginnie Mae and private label fell the most. “The rate of exits has slowed the past two weeks, with this week’s exit rate reaching the lowest since February,” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA Senior Vice President and Chief Economist. “The increase in the forbearance share for portfolio and PLS loans highlights both the ongoing buyouts of delinquent loans from Ginnie Mae pools as well as an increased forbearance share for other loans that are not federally backed.”

The CFPB sent a letter to the biggest apartment owners warning them about trying to evict anyone. “Landlords should ensure that FDCPA-covered debt collectors working on their behalf, which may include attorneys, notify tenants of their rights under federal law. Nearly nine million households are at risk of eviction due to the economic effects of COVID-19, but no one should lose their home without understanding their rights,” said CFPB Acting Director Dave Uejio. “We will hold accountable debt collectors who move forward with illegal evictions.”

Home prices rose 11.3% YOY in March, according to CoreLogic. Month over month, home prices rose 2%. CoreLogic sees the 2021 spring homebuying season surpassing 2018 and 2019. Demand is strongest at the lower end. CoreLogic said that prices for homes at 25% below the median home price saw increases of 15% plus. This is due to a rush of first-time homebuyers moving out to the suburbs. CoreLogic sees pricing flatting out from here, with gains over the next year rising only 3%. Home prices are flying everywhere except New York State.

Banks eased credit standards in April, according to the Fed’s Senior Loan Officer Survey.

Over the first quarter, banks eased lending standards for most mortgage loan categories and for revolving home equity lines of credit (HELOCs), with notable differences across bank sizes.6

A moderate net share of large banks eased standards on government-sponsored enterprise (GSE)-eligible mortgages, which make up the majority of bank mortgage originations. Furthermore, significant net shares of large banks eased standards on HELOCs and all other mortgage categories except government and subprime mortgages. Moderate net shares of large banks eased standards on government residential mortgages. At the same time, modest net shares of small banks eased standards on qualified mortgage (QM) jumbo mortgages, on QM non-jumbo, non-GSE-eligible mortgages, and on HELOCs. Small banks left standards on all other residential mortgage types except subprime mortgages basically unchanged.

Large banks reported unchanged demand across most mortgage categories and weaker demand for HELOCs. In contrast, small banks reported stronger demand across all mortgage categories except subprime mortgages and unchanged demand for HELOCs on net. Significant net shares of small banks reported stronger demand for GSE-eligible and QM jumbo residential mortgages, and moderate net shares reported stronger demand for all other categories except government and subprime mortgages. A modest net share of small banks reported stronger demand for government mortgages.

Morning Report: Residential Construction jumps

Vital Statistics:

S&P futures4,19419.8
Oil (WTI)63.730.17
10 year government bond yield 1.62%
30 year fixed rate mortgage 3.17%

Stocks are up this morning on no real news. Bonds and MBS are up small.

The big even this week is the jobs report on Friday. The Street is looking for 938,000 jobs to have been created in April. The unemployment rate is expected to fall to 5.8% from 6% and average hourly earnings are expected to rise 4.2% on a year-over-year basis.

We are starting to see early estimates for second quarter GDP growth, with Goldman and the Atlanta Fed predicting 10%+ growth. While the Fed has repeatedly said it will go slow in backing off stimulus, the June Fed Funds futures see an 11% chance of a rate hike.

The ISM Manufacturing Index came in well below expectations at 60.7. New Orders and Production drove the decrease. “The manufacturing economy continued expansion in April. Survey Committee Members reported that their companies and suppliers continue to struggle to meet increasing rates of demand due to coronavirus (COVID-19) impacts limiting availability of parts and materials. Recent record-long lead times, wide-scale shortages of critical basic materials, rising commodities prices and difficulties in transporting products are continuing to affect all segments of the manufacturing economy. Worker absenteeism, short-term shutdowns due to part shortages, and difficulties in filling open positions continue to be issues that limit manufacturing-growth potential.”

Construction spending rose 0.2% MOM and 5.3% YOY, according to the Census Bureau. Residential construction rose 1.7% MOM and 23% YOY. Again, we will see unusually high year-over-year rates for the next several months as we compare against the lockdown days.

There was a rumor going around on Friday that Freddie is going to announce a 5% cap on non-owner occupied loans sometime this week. Freddie is thinking it might not be able to get under the 7% cap by the end of the year.

Mortgage REIT Annaly Capital announced first quarter earnings last week and mentioned on the earnings call that it is moving into the agency NOO space: “We continue to see opportunities in the non-QM market and have started to capitalize on opportunities in the agency investor market given recent changes to the GSE’s preferred stock purchase agreements.” As more and more players enter this market, we should see pricing improve on these loans. Annaly also made a prescient sale of its commercial real estate business, just as the Biden tax plan takes aim at 1031 sales.

New York State is legendary for its long foreclosure timelines. That said, we have found the champion for working the system: A guy on Long Island bought his house in 1998, made one payment, and has managed to still live there.

Morning Report: Incomes rise, spending not so much

Vital Statistics:

S&P futures4,184-19.8
Oil (WTI)63.53-1.47
10 year government bond yield 1.64%
30 year fixed rate mortgage 3.20%

Stocks are lower this morning on no real news. Bonds and MBS are flat.

Personal incomes rose a whopping 21% in March, driven by stimulus payments. Personal spending rose only 4.2%, which is another indication that people are saving their stimulus checks, not spending them. Saving includes debt payments, which is probably what people are doing with the money.

The Personal Consumption Expenditure price index rose 2.3% in March. Ex-food and energy it rose 1.8%. This is the inflation index the Fed pays the most attention to, and it is really the core index (excluding food and energy) that the the Fed focuses on. Note the “market based” index, which is a supplemental index that excludes some other bootstrapped readings, rose 1.6% ex-food and energy. Bottom line, inflation remains below the Fed’s target rate, and that means policy is going nowhere for the time being.

The employment cost index rose 0.9% in the first quarter and 2.6% on a year-over-year basis. Wages and salaries rose 2.7%, while benefits costs rose 2.5%.

Pending Home Sales rose 1.9% in March, according to the National Association of Realtors. Year-over-year contract signings were up 23%, however they were unusually depressed last year due to COVID. NAR projects that existing home sales will increase by 10% to 6.2 million in 2021, and home prices will rise about 9%. They see housing starts rising to 1.6 million in 2021 and 1.7 million in 2022. That might not be enough to meet demand however.

New Construction accounts for a quarter of homes for sale, according to a study by Redfin. This is due to both increased homebuilding and fewer existing homes for sale. “New construction has typically been a good option for buyers who don’t want to deal with bidding wars because builders don’t usually set deadlines for offers. Buyers also like that they can often buy a new home for what it’s actually listed for rather than having to offer way over the asking price to win,” said Melanie Miller, a Redfin real estate agent in Houston. “However, inventory for new construction is very low and prices are now rising for many new and pre-construction homes because lumber prices have gone up. I had one buyer who came to terms with a builder at a certain price. The builder called us the next day and said they can’t do that price anymore because their suppliers just increased prices.”

The soaring costs of sticks and bricks are a big reason why new home costs are rising so much. For anyone who has swung by the Home Despot to work on a home improvement project, lumber costs are through are up almost fivefold over the past year:

Morning Report: The Fed makes no changes

Vital Statistics:

S&P futures4,20629.8
Oil (WTI)64.991.17
10 year government bond yield 1.66%
30 year fixed rate mortgage 3.19%

Stocks are higher this morning as earnings continue to come in. Bonds and MBS are down.

The Fed left interest rates unchanged at its meeting yesterday. Bonds had zero reaction to the press release. The Fed is still concerned about COVID and its effect on the economy:

Amid progress on vaccinations and strong policy support, indicators of economic activity and employment have strengthened. The sectors most adversely affected by the pandemic remain weak but have shown improvement. Inflation has risen, largely reflecting transitory factors. Overall financial conditions remain accommodative, in part reflecting policy measures to support the economy and the flow of credit to U.S. households and businesses.
The path of the economy will depend significantly on the course of the virus, including progress on vaccinations. The ongoing public health crisis continues to weigh on the economy, and risks to the economic outlook remain.

The statement stressed that the Fed wants to see inflation at 2% over the long-term and says inflation has been running “persistently below this goal.” In addition, note the “transitory” characterization about inflation in the statement. The runup in commodity prices is due to COVID supply chain disruptions and shortages, which should dissipate as the year goes on.

First quarter GDP grew at 6.4%, according to the BEA. This is the advance estimate and it will be revised twice. Personal consumption expenditures and government spending drove the increase. Investment fell, largely driven by inventory depletion.

Inflation rose to 3.5% in the first quarter compared to 1.5% in the fourth, so inflation is accelerating. Excluding food and energy, PCE inflation rose 2.3%. Supply chain bottlenecks are causing shortages. Again, inflation numbers for the next several months are going to look exaggerated due to the lockdowns a year ago.

Initial Jobless Claims were more or less unchanged last week at 553k.

Professional Real estate investors beware: the new tax plan by the Biden Administration looks to severely restrict the 1031 exchange, which means capital gains taxes will be due immediately after a property sale, even if you buy another property in the next six months. He also wants to double the capital gains rate as well, and increase inheritance taxes. I have to imagine the net result of gutting the 1031 exchange will be to shrink home inventory even more.

Freddie Mac released a statement on the FHFA’s new refi program for low-income borrowers. “Millions of homeowners have benefited from refinancing to reduce their monthly mortgage payment and build long-term wealth. Freddie Mac’s new Refi Possible mortgage creates more equitable opportunities by making it easier for homeowners in lower income brackets to refinance their mortgage. Refi Possible reaches many homeowners who can benefit from refinancing and provides flexibilities that incentivize our clients to serve these eligible borrowers moving forward. Our goal is to expand access to credit responsibly and make sure we are supporting sustainable homeownership.”

Morning Report: Fed day

Vital Statistics:

S&P futures4,1834.8
Oil (WTI)63.440.57
10 year government bond yield 1.64%
30 year fixed rate mortgage 3.18%

Stocks are flat this morning as earnings come in. Bonds and MBS are down as we await the FOMC decision at 2:00 pm

Morgan Stanley is out with a call saying that optimism for the economy out of the Fed could be bearish for stocks. The fear is that the Fed will begin removing accomodation before the economy has fully recovered. FWIW, the December Fed Funds futures are handicapping a 12% chance of a rate hike this year.

Mortgage applications fell 2% last week as purchases fell 5% and refis fell 1%. The 30 year fixed rate mortgage fell for the third week in a row. “Mortgage applications decreased last week, even as mortgage rates dropped for the third week in a row,” said Joel Kan, MBA Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting. “Even with a few weeks of lower rates, most borrowers have likely already refinanced, which is why activity has decreased in seven of the last eight weeks. The purchase market’s recent slide comes despite a strengthening economy and labor market. Activity is still above year-ago levels, but accelerating home-price growth and low inventory has led to a decline in purchase applications in four of the last five weeks.”

The CFPB has officially delayed the new QM rule until October of next year. This was the rule that changed the relevant metric from a 43% debt to income ratio to something based on a mortgage’s proximity to the average mortgage rate. It also keeps the GSE patch in place, although FHFA has told Fannie and Freddie to limit their 43 DTI + loans, so I guess this really isn’t going to make a substantial difference unless the FHFA letter to Fan and Fred from last January is rescinded.

The homeownership rate ticked down in the first quarter, according to the Census Bureau. FWIW, it is still artificially high due to the foreclosure moratorium. I am not sure what drove the Q220 and Q320 spike, but it looks strange and I suspect it is some sort of data issue.

Consumer confidence rose in April, according to the Conference Board. We are back to pre-lockdown levels as consumers’ current assessment of conditions increased.

Morning Report: Record home price appreciation

Vital Statistics:

S&P futures4,1856.8
Oil (WTI)62.440.57
10 year government bond yield 1.58%
30 year fixed rate mortgage 3.14%

Stocks are higher this morning as earnings continue to come in. Bonds and MBS are flat.

Home prices rose 0.9% MOM and 12.2% YOY in February, according to the FHFA. “Annual house price growth achieved a new record high in February” said Dr. Lynn Fisher, FHFA’s Deputy Director of the Division of Research and Statistics. “The 12.2 percent gain represents an increase of $35,000 for a median-priced home that sold a year ago at $290,000 in the Enterprises’ data.” Every geographic division reported double-digit annual gains.

The number of loans in forbearance ticked down to 4.49%, according to the MBA. “After two weeks of large declines, the share of loans in forbearance decreased for the eighth straight week,” said MBA Chief Economist Mike Fratantoni. “New forbearance requests increased, and the rate of exits declined. More than 40 percent of borrowers in forbearance extensions have now exceeded the 12-month mark.”

The Biden Administration is aware of the disruptions caused by the 7% cap on investment and second homes. The Administration has not yet formed an opinion on this, but it is at least aware. Bharat Ramamurti, the Deputy Director of the National Economic Council told the MBA: “We’re looking forward to working across the Administration with Congress to grapple with those issues,” Ramamurti said. “And we recognize that the issues you raised with second homes is a shorter-term issue, and all I can say on that is we are aware of it; we will continue to engage on it; and we are happy to work with you and your members on it going forward, and having a conversation with FHFA about it…we appreciate you flagging it for us and we recognize that.” Not a lot to hang your hat on here, and it certainly doesn’t seem to be any sort of front-burner issue.

The market for homes this Spring is the most competitive in years, with the National Association of Realtors announcing an average of 4.8 bids per property. Buyers are reacting by increasing the number of cash offers on a property, and are making larger down payments.

The April FOMC meeting starts today amid concerns that the economy is overheating. A survey of economists reveals the market anticipates no changes to policy this year. IMO, that is probably the case.

Concerns about an overheating economy are overblown IMO, although the inflation data will be giving off some wonky readings as COVID lockdowns last year distort the historical data. COVID-19 also created all sorts of supply chain issues that created shortages. While those price increases are real, they are also temporary. As they say in the commodity markets (which is the driver here) the cure for high prices is high prices. This means that prices increase, commodity producers like miners, farmers, and loggers increase production to take advantage of it, which increases supply and causes prices to fall.

Morning Report: The next test for the Fed

Vital Statistics:

S&P futures4,1720.8
Oil (WTI)61.04-1.17
10 year government bond yield 1.57%
30 year fixed rate mortgage 3.14%

Stocks are flattish this morning as we head into Fed week and the meat of earnings season. Bonds and MBS are down small.

Flagstar Bank reached a deal to be acquired by New York Community Bank in an all-stock merger. Based on Friday’s closing prices, the deal is a 6% premium, which isn’t massive. It sounds like the rationale for this merger is not the typical cost-cutting one since there is no overlap of branches. It look like more of a strategic deal where NYCB wants to transition away from its roots as a thrift bank and add commercial banking heft. Lee M Smith of Flagstar will continue to run the mortgage operations, so it sounds like NYCB envisions keeping everything there. NYCB stock is up pre-open so it looks like the Street likes the deal.

The week ahead will have quite a bit of economic data with GDP on Thursday and Personal Incomes / Personal Spending on Friday. We will also have the FOMC meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday. No changes in policy are expected, however if the statement is unusually positive on the economy, bond prices could be vulnerable.

The next test for the Fed will be introducing the idea of returning to a more normal policy. The Fed wants to avoid a repeat of the “taper tantrum” when it made its first attempt to get off the zero bound. In the statement from the March meeting, it said that it wanted to see “substantial progress” towards full employment, and if you look at the employment-population ratio, it gives you kind of an idea what they need to see.

Pre-COVID, the employment-population ratio was 61.1% and it is now 57.8%. To get back to that level, we need to see about 11 million more jobs created. Given that inflation was still below the Fed’s target rate at that level, I think we have to assume that they are probably targeting that level again before they even think about increasing rates (or perhaps even tapering). I think the Fed feels like they were too aggressive last time around and will be less fearful of an inflationary surge. FWIW, CPI inflation was routinely in the 3% – 4% range during the mid- 1980s and 1990s, and most of us remember that period as pretty comfortable economically.

Durable Goods orders rose 0.5% in March, following a 0.9% decline in February. This was below the Street consensus of a 1.5% gain. Core Capital Goods orders (which are a good proxy for business capital expenditures) actually fell by 4.7% (excluding national defense). Inventory build was also minimal, which was another surprise.

The Biden Admin signed a mortgage relief bill that helps delinquent borrowers with their taxes and insurance bills. It will be distributed to states based on their unemployment rates.

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