Morning Report: Fed makes no changes to policy 7/27/17

Vital Statistics:

Last Change
S&P Futures 2478.0 5.0
Eurostoxx Index 382.8 0.0
Oil (WTI) 48.4 -0.3
US dollar index 86.3 0.1
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 2.30%
Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA 102.93
Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA 103.81
30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 3.95

Stocks are higher after the Fed maintained existing policy yesterday. Bonds and MBS are flat.

As expected, the Fed kept the Fed Funds rate the same. The statement was almost identical to the June statement. The September Fed Funds futures went to a 100% probability of no hike, and the December futures went to a 51% chance of no hike. The Fed said balance sheet reduction will begin “relatively soon.” The consensus seems to be that “relatively soon” means September. The Fed Funds futures are hinting that as well, by going to a 0% probability of a rate hike, which means they are betting September will the meeting where tapering is announced. One complicating factor will be the debt ceiling hike, which will be happening around that time. If we get a stand-off, we might see the Fed punt until the December meeting.

June Durable Goods orders were up big on aircraft. The headline number was an increase of 6.5% MOM and 16% YOY. Ex-transportation, they were up 0.2% MOM and 6.8% YOY. Core capital goods orders (a proxy for business capital expenditures) fell 0.1% and are up 5.6% YOY.

Initial Jobless Claims ticked up to 244k, while the Chicago Fed National Activity Index rebounded to .13.

The UK banking regulator has decided to kill LIBOR by phasing it out by 2021.

Freddie Mac changed its guidelines on Home Possible Loans. No gift money until 3% down.

27 Responses

  1. Lots of wailing and gnashing of teeth from the left over the return of a policy that was deemed acceptable for 94% of oh-so-woke obama’s term…

    Liked by 1 person

    • lotta ink spilled for trannies, that’s for sure.

      Liked by 1 person

    • I suspect that when all is said and done, this will simply amount to an order that you have to wear the proper uniform and follow the grooming guidelines while on duty or on military installations, as well as not covering your gender reassignment surgery. They aren’t going to go looking for people to discharge. I was in pre-DADT, and the only gay discharges involved (a) self-reporting and (b) caught in the act. The Navy wasn’t sending the shore patrol to gay bars looking for sailors.

      Not to mention there isn’t an XO on the planet who would ever desire a trans discharge case.

      It is only going to affect guys as well. Women can look however they want grooming wise and no one is going to care.

      Like

      • Women can look however they want grooming wise and no one is going to care.

        Gonna have to beg to differ with you there. 🙂

        Liked by 1 person

        • Really? I can see issues with guys looking like women, but not any with women looking like guys..

          Like

        • I cut my hair very short once I figured out that, among other things, that was the easiest way to get headgear and helmets to fit. Subsequently, every commander I had investigated to determine if I was a lesbian.

          Like

        • Subsequently, every commander I had investigated to determine if I was a lesbian.

          That must have been a bunch of gratuitous crap. I assume rising in rank should reduce the number of potential intrusions, but I am curious as to whether that actually made it worse in the real world.

          Like

  2. Adding to the WH chaos, Scaramucci seems a bit unhinged, too.

    Late Wednesday night, following dinner with the president and others at the White House, Scaramucci responded to a Politico report about the financial disclosure form he filed during his stint at the Export-Import Bank earlier this year. The public can request to see these documents, and the article notes that the form is “publicly available upon request.” Scaramucci fired off a tweet that labeled the release of his financial disclosure a “leak” and “a felony,” adding Priebus’s Twitter handle to the end of the message.

    “In light of the leak of my financial disclosure info which is a felony. I will be contacting @FBI and the @TheJusticeDept #swamp @Reince45,” Scaramucci tweeted.

    Like

  3. If this shit comes here, I’m doomed.

    https://heatst.com/culture-wars/british-police-force-to-consider-charging-people-who-mocked-promise-to-track-down-trolls/

    See ya in the Hate Speech Re-education camps, I’ll have liquor and cigarettes to barter for a solid put-down.

    Like

    • It should be clear that despite the tweet no trannies serving currently will be discharged simply for BEING trannies. Some COs might look for and find other excuses, and as with general or admin or dishonorable or less than honorable discharges for everyone, some trannies will deserve them.

      They also might be the among first to be honorably discharged in a RIF. But absent the same circumstances that affect all milpers, those serving will remain in service.

      Funding for surgery could get cut off, of course. That is a separate issue.

      Like

      • Exactly and that is the part that people don’t get. The military cares about behavior, not what you think. If you are transgender you won’t be allowed to dress the part on duty or on base. They aren’t going to care what you do on your own time.

        Of course the people screeching the loudest about this have never served and probably don’t know anyone who has. The military IS red-state America, and will bristle at being dictated to by coastal social liberals.

        I guess it is a necessary evil during D administrations, but that doesn’t mean Rs have to follow suit, despite the caterwauling of the Lady Gagas and the George Takais of the world.

        Like

        • That trannies were allowed in the first place, that the DoD is requesting monies for tranny surgery and that there is controversy over this moronic decision being reversed is ASTOUNDING!

          Like

        • These sort of social engineering / virtue signalling exercises are part and parcel with having a D in the WH, but that doesn’t mean R presidents have to do the same or even continue it.

          Like

    • especially since the left defines hate speech as anything they disagree with.

      Like

  4. Fascinating article by Andrew McArthy re Sessions recusal and Mueller’s appointment.

    If he’s right, Trump not forcing Sessions and Rosenstein to comply with regulations would be malfeasance, no?

    http://www.nationalreview.com/article/449849/sessions-trump-following-federal-regulations-could-have-avoided-mess

    Like

  5. Not really helping the tranny cause Lady Gaga.

    Like

  6. Fuck em.

    http://www.latimes.com/opinion/op-ed/la-oe-pulley-scott-are-recruiters-misleading-women-20170725-story.html

    If potential recruits understood fully what they’re getting themselves into (injury, both mental and physical, soul crushing incompetence from most of the officers corps, life altering bad conduct discharges because you have human flaws) no one would enlist. Why shouldn’t broads get lied too? Happens to dudes every day. Like I said, fuck em.

    Like

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