Brent Nyitray
Fairlington Blade
Let the mutherfuker burn!
jnc4p
Kevin S. Willis
Michigoose
lmsinca
markinaustin
Arcanaut
novahockey
quarterback
ScottC
yellojktI love this quote from the US DOL:
The vital force of labor added materially to the highest standard of living and the greatest production the world has ever known and has brought us closer to the realization of our traditional ideals of economic and political democracy. It is appropriate, therefore, that the nation pay tribute on Labor Day to the creator of so much of the nation’s strength, freedom, and leadership — the American worker.
With so many people out of work this Labor Day and an election on the horizon I think most of us are a little more apprehensive this year than other years in the more distant past. Regardless, I always love Labor Day as the end of a long hot summer of beaches, swimming, busy work days, sleepovers with the grand kids and the transition to making plans for the Fall.
I’m about ready to go out and tear out the rest of my summer garden and will plant the Fall one in two weeks. We’ll swim another few weeks here and then I’ll switch to the high school pool as it’s heated year round and ours will begin to cool as the nights get colder. We had our last big beach trip this weekend, the grand kids are back in school and our youngest just left this morning to finish writing her thesis and so we won’t see her again until Christmas.
Here in our local community is the big (we like to think of it that way) fair and a parade down Main Street. At the fair we still have displays of quilts, canned goods, arts and crafts and the 4H Club will show off their ribbon winning animals and cute bunnies and baby chicks. It’s always a reminder to me of the way things were when I was growing up and that those values are still alive and well in pockets of America.
Wishing all of you a happy Labor Day and hoping you’ve all enjoyed the last real break in what appears to be a heated campaign season. Haaaaahaaaaa, I’m rested and have my boxing gloves on so watch out…………. just kidding.
All Things in Moderation 
Happy Labor Day lmsinca. Is that you in the picture? I unfortunately have to work today.
Banned/John, post a reply if you are around today. A couple of (unintentionally) humorous posts on PL from your nemesis that may interest you.
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jnc, I’m sorry you have to work and maybe, but our daughter and granddaughter are out surfing. That was Friday before the big waves came in on Saturday. The only one brave enough from our family to try it Saturday was our daughter and she didn’t stay out very long. We spent Saturday looking for sand crabs and shells and playing cards on the beach. This is our secret little cove in Oceanside, CA.
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That is gorgeous, Lulu! It reminds me of what I liked best about WA when I was living there–I could get to either the Pacific Ocean or the Puget Sound (well, I lived on the Puget Sound) and so could decide what kind of waves to see. Since I turn lobster-red at the drop of the hat, I tended to enjoy the ocean waves more in the fall/winter when I needed to dress in long sleeves anyway, and those waves remind me of the Northwest coast.
Have a happy Labor Day, all, and enjoy yourselves!
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The NY Times editorial page has gone off the deep end with regards to immigration amnesty:
“But the bill is facing strong opposition from some sheriffs who claim that the Trust Act would force them to choose between violating federal law and violating state law, based on their mistaken view that detention requests from ICE are mandatory, not voluntary.”
Looks like they are supporting nullification when it comes to Federal immigration law.
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Points to President Obama for taking the high road.
“DES MOINES — President Obama wants to make it clear that, in his own words, “I am a huge Clint Eastwood fan.”
“He is a great actor, and an even better director,” the president said in an interview with USA TODAY aboard Air Force One, on his way to campaign rallies in Iowa Saturday. “I think the last few movies that he’s made have been terrific.”
…
“Was he offended?
“One thing about being president or running for president — if you’re easily offended, you should probably choose another profession.” Obama said with a smile.”
http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/story/2012-09-02/obama-clint-eastwood-skit/57520284/1
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“One thing about being president or running for president — if you’re easily offended, you should probably choose another profession.”
Probably some of the truest words ever spoken by a politician! 🙂
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Mich:
Probably some of the truest words ever spoken by a politician!
Certainly by that politician, at least. 🙂
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BTW, the large font “bad lip reading” in the Tag Cloud to the left reminded me–I can hardly wait to see what they come up for for the Clint and the Chair routine. They don’t have one posted yet, but it’s got to be only a matter of time.
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His speech didn’t poll very well at all but there’s this:
In Florida, 72 percent had a favorable opinion of Eastwood compared to 11 percent with a negative one. (That includes a majority of Democrats; 58 percent had a favorable opinion of him, while 20 percent negative.) In North Carolina, 71 percent had a favorable overall opinion of Eastwood, compared to 14 percent negative.
“Those are certainly numbers any politician would die for,” PPP said.
I always watch his movies. I’ve seen Gran Torino several times for some reason and still love all the Dirty Harry movies even though he’s totally moved on to bigger and better films and directing.
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I wonder what the NYT thinks the US immigration laws should be? The Libertarian’s believe in open borders. It seems that there is an element of that on the left as well. If there should be some control, what should it be? Does immigration depress wages? Spur growth?
When I think back to Bush’s Amnesty in his second term, the Republican’s received a lot of blame, though if I’m not mistaken the D’s controlled Congress, so I think there are large elements in both party’s that don’t want amnesty and want tighter enforcement.
I’m not an amnesty proponent. I would only grudgingly agree to it if those that receive it never can become citizens and voters unless they return to their home countries and go to the back of the line. If they choose not to do it, they can stay/work/pay taxes but not vote.
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Michi
Since I turn lobster-red at the drop of the hat
My husband is that way but on my side we tan very easily. However, since we prefer not to have skin that looks like old shoe leather we’ve been using sun screen our entire lives and take large umbrellas or our EZ Up to the beach. I do have one new little spot on my chest I’m going to have my doc look at and remove when I go back in the next week or so. We’re overly cautious around here when it comes to sun as we spend so much time outdoors.
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Nice, quick analysis by Kaus on “fact-checking” and Obama’s welfare work waivers.
http://dailycaller.com/2012/09/02/credulous-fact-checkers-fall-for-20-scam/
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Scott:
Certainly by that politician, at least.
I’m in too good a mood for you to lure me down a rabbit hole today, dude! 🙂 Having a good Labor Day? And has eldest daughter started school? What is she thinking of the college experience so far? I spent a few hours last night with some friends and one of theirs’ oldest daughter at a concert; the daughter is a freshman at the U this fall and it was interesting talking to her about her first week; it always surprises me how little has changed since I was a freshman.
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Mich:
And has eldest daughter started school? What is she thinking of the college experience so far?
She’s actually a senior in high school this year. We started looking at colleges last spring, but still one more year to go. I think her sophomore sister is more excited about going (away) to college than she is, though. The oldest’s parameters include driving distance to home. The middle one’s parameter’s are 2: someplace warm, and someplace far away from home.
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Lulu:
Kudos to you! I’m actually a control for a melanoma study here, since I have a history of sun burn from my teenage years but no family history of skin cancer. So far my dermatologist is happy with me and I get free screenings every year for the study, but (especially here at altitude) it’s something I think about all the time. SPF 55 every day.
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lms:
Thanks for that pic. I only went up to Oceanside a couple of times, but the smaller crowds were nice (compared to La Jolla/SD) — the obligatory stop at Pizza Port on the way home was a bonus.
One great thing about being on the west side of FL is that I can still sit on a beach and watch the sun set over the water.
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Michi
My mother had beautiful skin and very few wrinkles even in her 80’s and I always listened to her advice on skin care although not much else……………..lol. My husband’s sister died of metastatic melanoma at the age of 36 so that pounded it into our brains even more. She was a strawberry blonde with lots of freckles who grew up baking herself in the sun with baby oil of all things. I was being forced to use Coppertone at the same time she was tanning. My mother was very prescient in that regard.
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Mike
the obligatory stop at Pizza Port on the way home was a bonus.
If you or anyone else ever gets down to the Oceanside/Carlsbad vicinity again our obligatory stop is the Vera Cruz Fish House on Carlsbad Village Dr. They have the best fresh fish on the southern coast of CA and their smoked albacore and salmon are the best I’ve ever had anywhere.
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“Troll McWingnut or George, whichever, on September 3, 2012 at 10:46 am said:
I wonder what the NYT thinks the US immigration laws should be? The Libertarian’s believe in open borders. It seems that there is an element of that on the left as well. If there should be some control, what should it be? Does immigration depress wages? Spur growth?
When I think back to Bush’s Amnesty in his second term, the Republican’s received a lot of blame, though if I’m not mistaken the D’s controlled Congress, so I think there are large elements in both party’s that don’t want amnesty and want tighter enforcement. “
First, did you mean Reagan’s Amnesty in the 1980’s?
Second, here’s one of the most accurate things Paul Krugman has ever written:
“… open immigration can’t coexist with a strong social safety net; if you’re going to assure health care and a decent income to everyone, you can’t make that offer global.”
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/04/26/the-curious-politics-of-immigration/
For myself, I’d prefer more immigration and less welfare state.
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jnc:
For myself, I’d prefer more immigration and less welfare state
I’m with you on this.
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Mike and Michi
Here’s the difference in the waves between Friday (above photo) and Saturday. You can’t really see them but the outside breakers were at least 8 to 10 feet and you can see how rough the water was close to shore. Grandson digging for sand crabs with his Aunt (our youngest) supervising. We wouldn’t even let him get his feet wet without someone with him as there was also a big rip current fairly close to shore.
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Lulu, thanks for the photo-essay.
George, thanks for the critique on waivers – I am now more sure than ever that the proof of the pudding will be in the eating.
Re: immigration. I met this morning with my clients who run a non-profit community cemetery near Lockhart. Julio, the president of the corporation, is 82, and on one side is third gen Am born and second gen on the other. Once we finished business, Julio, a weathered old cowboy, broke into his annual rant about undocs. It goes like this.
Julio put 6 of 8 kids all the way through college. Julio’s youngest went away to Washington State U. to get as far from TX as she could, damn her. But it was OK because she finished. More than half of undocs are no good. If the children of undocs are doing well in school, we should keep them here and train them up as ‘Mercans, but send their worthless parents back where they came from. Break them of the habit if they knew they would be separated from their kids. We should keep the good foreign engineering students here. We should have a working bracero program. We shouldn’t be fencing out the Rio Grande. MX already stole a lot of water from it in violation of our treaty, and now we are going to let them steal more by fencing OUT our river. We cannot give money to the MX government b/c they are all crooks. We should decriminalize all drugs and dry up the cartels. We should flat turn down adult undocs for subsidized health care. Cheaper to bury them.
So I figured he was against the Admin.
They did some good things. They really beefed up the Border Patrol. They are trying to let the undoc kids finish school. And they don’t want to give a tax handout to the rich. Rs remind him of the bad undocs who want to take but not give. Most undocs are bad.
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jnc:
Didn’t see anything beyond normal cao nonsense.
Have completely lost interest in PL now except for the links which I often checkout. Never look at the comments boards anymore.
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bannedagain5446, on September 3, 2012 at 12:15 pm said:
jnc:
Didn’t see anything beyond normal cao nonsense.
Have completely lost interest in PL now except for the links which I often checkout. Never look at the comments boards anymore.”
It was in this thread:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/post/the-romney-campaigns-theory-of-the-race/2012/09/02/54d14d42-f521-11e1-86a5-1f5431d87dfd_blog.html
Turns out that Cao inherited all the money that enabled him to move to Vietnam and the other thing was his rant against Fiona for cluttering up the blog. Pot meet kettle.
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jnc:
Turns out that Cao inherited all the money that enabled him to move to Vietnam
LOL.
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Among the lies and hypocrisies in Paul Ryan’s speech the biggest one went unnoticed:
“It began with a perfect AAA credit rating for the United States. It ends with a downgraded America.”
In fact Paul Ryan was the ONLY politician of any influence in either party that suggested it would be ok to default on our payments:
“US Debt Holders Willing to Miss Payments: Rep. Ryan”
http://www.cnbc.com/id/43060739/US_Debt_Holders_Willing_to_Miss_Payments_Rep_Ryan
I saw it live and there was almost a gasp from the other people on the show that morning.
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banned:
Among the lies and hypocrisies in Paul Ryan’s speech the biggest one went unnoticed:
So do you think that was that a lie or hypocrisy? Doesn’t look like either to me.
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banned:
Among the lies and hypocrisies in Paul Ryan’s speech the biggest one went unnoticed:
Maybe it’s just me, but it seems to me if you are going to cite a line from a speech as “the biggest” of many “lies and hypocrisies” contained within the speech, shouldn’t the line actually be, well, not true or an actual instance of hypocrisy? I don’t think that simple statements of fact that Obama supporters find either uncomfortable or inconvenient qualifies as either a “lie” or “hypocrisy”.
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Harold Meyerson has a pretty good run down of the current labor situation.
Since the recession bottomed out in June 2009, median household income has fallen by $2,544, to $50,964 — a 5 percent drop — according to a new report by Sentier Research. It’s no mystery why wages are falling even during the recovery. In a study released last week, the National Employment Law Project found that 58 percent of the jobs created since 2010 pay between $7.69 and $13.83 an hour. New jobs in the mid-range of the wage distribution, paying $13.84 to $21.13, account for just 22 percent of the positions created since the recovery began, though they constituted 60 percent of the jobs lost in the downturn. Higher-wage jobs are just 20 percent of the newly created positions. The biggest increase in jobs has come in food preparation and retail sales.
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lms:
Looks like some decent surfing out there past the shore. IIRC, the Oceanside surfers weren’t quite as militant about outsiders as the Bird Rock bunch (Windansea, in LJ).
jnc:
BTW, I feel your pain — I’m at work today too. At least it is quiet and I don’t have any meetings.
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Mike the surfers and the waves brought out quite a few tourists and cameras on Saturday though. I guess I’m a tourist since I don’t live there but all my kids surf as did my husband and I in our younger years. I still miss it and dream about it sometimes. I grew up surfing Huntington, the north side without lifeguards and parking lots. The worst surfers are in Newport, at least attitude wise, and I knew quite a few of them in their hey day. Luckily the better waves are south now because of the jetties they had to build in Newport to save the homes. The Wedge used to be a great surfing place, really hard core, but now it’s mostly all body boards. A friend of mine almost died there one summer about 30 years ago.
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“bannedagain5446, on September 3, 2012 at 12:29 pm said:
Among the lies and hypocrisies in Paul Ryan’s speech the biggest one went unnoticed:
“It began with a perfect AAA credit rating for the United States. It ends with a downgraded America.”
In fact Paul Ryan was the ONLY politician of any influence in either party that suggested it would be ok to default on our payments:
“US Debt Holders Willing to Miss Payments: Rep. Ryan”
http://www.cnbc.com/id/43060739/US_Debt_Holders_Willing_to_Miss_Payments_Rep_Ryan
I saw it live and there was almost a gasp from the other people on the show that morning.”
Sigh. I remember during the debate over the debt ceiling the rather futile attempts I tried to make the distinction to posters between defaulting on the debt and not paying future obligations. Sending out only partial Social Security checks is undesirable, but it’s not “defaulting on the debt”. Ryan’s not helping.
All in all though, I believe that the hypocrisy charge has more traction than the “lying” charge. Saying that Obama didn’t support Bowles-Simpson is true, if hypocritical.
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“ScottC, on September 3, 2012 at 12:37 pm said:
banned:
Among the lies and hypocrisies in Paul Ryan’s speech the biggest one went unnoticed:
So do you think that was that a lie or hypocrisy? Doesn’t look like either to me.”
In this case, as President Obama clearly wanted a “clean” (i.e. unconditional) increase in the debt ceiling, I’d argue that all the wailing about triggers, sequestration, and credit downgrades by the Republicans counts as hypocrisy. I suspect that even at this point, the Republicans could get the Democrats and Obama to agree to repeal all the triggers and sequestration in exchange for rewriting the debt ceiling increase so that it was unconditional.
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He wasn’t talking about Social Security payments. He was specifically referring to Treasury obligations.
That’s what made it so crazy, because there was literally no need to ever miss a payment on those obligations, no matter what else went unpaid.
It was the craziness of the idea that left everybody else agape.
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“bannedagain5446, on September 3, 2012 at 12:49 pm said:
He wasn’t talking about Social Security payments. He was specifically referring to Treasury obligations.
That’s what made it so crazy, because there was literally no need to ever miss a payment on those obligations, no matter what else went unpaid.
It was the craziness of the idea that left everybody else agape.”
Completely agree. That was totally stupid. The talking point should have been that there was easily sufficient revenue coming in to service interest on the debt and to roll over maturing debt.
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Channel surfing and I caught Band Of Brothers again.
What an incomparably good series that was.
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Band Of Brothers incomparably good series
Agree.
There have been non-historical, purely fictional great series. The original Alec Guinness as Smiley presentations and more recently, The Wire come to mind.
But BoB was the best.
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Mark,
Sounds like he is partially channeling the Edward Abbey solution: Turn them around at the border and give ’em an M-16 and a package of rubbers.
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I did not get to ask him if he was for fencing the other side of the RG. I mainly listen to rants and don’t participate. Charging by the hour I don’t want to be seen as churning for fees!
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“The rise of the older worker is cast sometimes as a problematic feature of the current job climate: a “gray ceiling” in which the lingering of older employees leaves scant opportunity for younger workers to be hired, developed, and promoted. The challenge is genuine, as recent headlines about a “lost” generation of youth imply.
But take a larger and longer view, and the picture may be much more positive. There’s the potential for ample demand for younger and older workers alike. Many seniors, for their part, are engaged in a righteous rebellion against artificial limits — against the notion that hitting 65 means one’s contributions to society are largely in the rearview mirror.”
http://www.cnbc.com/id/48884817
I would say this is an ever increasing employment problem. Not only do they take jobs away from younger workers, but they also depress wages in general because they can double dip with SS benefits as long as they are older than 66, and so can take less wages and still live decently:
“If you were born January 2, 1943, through January 1, 1955, then your full retirement age for retirement insurance benefits is 66. If you work and are full retirement age or older, you may keep all of your benefits, no matter how much you earn. If you are younger than full retirement age, there is a limit to how much you can earn and still receive full Social Security benefits. If you are younger than full retirement age during all of 2012, we must deduct $1 from your benefits for each $2 you earned above $14,640.”
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“markinaustin, on September 3, 2012 at 1:23 pm said:
Band Of Brothers incomparably good series
Agree.
There have been non-historical, purely fictional great series. The original Alec Guinness as Smiley presentations and more recently, The Wire come to mind.
But BoB was the best.”
The Wire is still my favorite series of all time.
and of course this classic:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vx0xulrOsgQ
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The Wire is still my favorite series of all time. Probably mine, too, but Tinker Tailor was close. BoB was the best, and it is on my list of faves, but those are two different lists.
The Great Escape is my favorite movie ever. A lot of movies have been better. I watch TGE on Veterans Day and on Memorial Day with a bunch of other guys. I don’t do that for Lawrence of Arabia, one of the best, but also on my list of faves.
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Worth noting:
I suspect some of the same sentiments are helping Mitt Romney. I.e. the social divide these days over religion is less about the various faiths and more about practicing any faith at all versus living a secular lifestyle.
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Banned, why do you get so exercised about Ryan, his career is dead, no? Career suicide by him should have, I would think, ended any interest you have in him.
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Mark, did you find The Pacific as disappointing as I did? It didn’t have nearly the narrative coherence of Band of Brothers.
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george:
Once in a while politicians treating the public as stupid bothers me (notwithstanding the fact that generally speaking they’re right) . It prompts me to write the anti-Obama pieces that I sometimes do, and now Ryan deserves the same, because he has jumped the shark in an effort to become VP.
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lms:
Since finding out that my surfing abilities are no better than the grommies at La Jolla Shores, I’ve stuck to body boarding (yeah, I’m one of those). But it was fun watching the hard-core surfer’s off Black’s or Windansea.
The surf around here is pretty meager, though I’ve seen some 4-6 ft. swells on occasion.
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jnc:
You were disappointed in The Pacific too? I thought I was the only one. After Band of Brothers, I got the box set of The Pacific sight-unseen because I thought it would be just as good. It was a chore to actually get through the entire thing — I think I re-watched the entire Band of Brothers before I finished The Pacific.
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BTW, per the quotation of the day, I guess we can all put it to bed and declare a second term for the President.
While I think that’s likely, does anyone think that this is a typical election?
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“Michigoose, on September 3, 2012 at 2:05 pm said:
BTW, per the quotation of the day, I guess we can all put it to bed and declare a second term for the President.
While I think that’s likely, does anyone think that this is a typical election?”
Probably. I expect that for example it will be a relatively close popular vote (52 to say 48) regardless of who wins and it will come down to the few key states that have already been identified for the electoral vote.
I think it will resemble the 2000 and 2004 elections more than 2008 or say 1984.
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jnc:
I wouldn’t call the 2000 election typical. I can see this one being like 2004 in that the popular vote is relatively close while the electoral college is pretty much a landslide.
So will that give Obama a “mandate” (a la GWB declaring his in 2004) or will Congress continue to throw up hurdles? And if they do, will the electorate care?
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“Michigoose, on September 3, 2012 at 2:46 pm said:
jnc:
I wouldn’t call the 2000 election typical. I can see this one being like 2004 in that the popular vote is relatively close while the electoral college is pretty much a landslide.
So will that give Obama a “mandate” (a la GWB declaring his in 2004) or will Congress continue to throw up hurdles? And if they do, will the electorate care?”
By typical, I mean pretty evenly divided which is the recent pattern.
A mandate would be a Democratic Congress. A Republican Congress plus President Obama being reelected means that the voters want gridlock, rather than either party having a ‘mandate’ to pursue their agenda.
Bush’s ‘mandate’ didn’t do much to advance his Social Security plan.
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Mike, did you grow up in So Cal, San Diego area or something? I know what you mean about surfer snobs. Have you ever surfed in Hawaii though………………lol. The one and only time I was in Hawaii, my BF and I used to hitch a ride with a tourist bus and the driver would drop us off at a “locals only” surf spot on the big island, talk about snobs. It took me about three days to prove I could surf and it wasn’t just a fluke before they finally accepted me and then we left…………………lol. Our daughter didn’t have quite that bad of an experience in ’03 so maybe it’s different now.
And I’m not discussing politics today but I will say I agree with everyone about BofB and Pacific. My son and I were just talking about that yesterday as he’s been watching BofB again recently. I may have to watch it again as well now.
Mark, I have always loved The Great Escape…………………….Steve McQueen……….yummy, and the rest not too shabby either. Oh, and the story was inspiring and full of patriotism and passion.
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“george:
Once in a while politicians treating the public as stupid bothers me (notwithstanding the fact that generally speaking they’re right) . It prompts me to write the anti-Obama pieces that I sometimes do, and now Ryan deserves the same, because he has jumped the shark in an effort to become VP.”
I guess I have a different understanding of ‘career suicide.’ Doesn’t it mean someone who purposefully, permanently removes themselves from any ability to hold and wield power and influence in the body politic? If Ryan, by agreeing to join the ticket with Romney committed ‘career suicide,’ then it stands to reason that he no longer has the power of influence in the body politic and any pronouncement me makes, to anybody, is utterly meaningless and irrelevant. To say he “jumped the shark” is to say that someone who has killed themselves did it again, no?
Also, why the comparison to Obama, in terms of responding to my question? Ryan’s dead, with influence and power on par with, say, John Edwards or Anthony Weiner, and Obama’s the President. Are you suggesting that Obama has, by seeking re-election, committed “career suicide’ the same as Ryan?
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George:
I can’t put a finger on when, precisely, Ryan committed career suicide, but I’m pretty sure he has. The nail in the coffin AFAIC was the lie about his marathon time. That’s probably personal (as a runner), but it just proved that he was willing to lie about stupidly small things in addition to large things.
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“Michigoose, on September 3, 2012 at 4:00 pm said:
George:
I can’t put a finger on when, precisely, Ryan committed career suicide, but I’m pretty sure he has. “
If in retrospect this proves to be accurate, I would say it occurred when he joined the House Republican leadership (i.e. when he accepted the chairmanship of the House Budget Committee). That’s when his budgets ceased to add up, regardless of what you think of his priorities.
Someone pointed out that the marathon time issue was similar to the whole Al Gore “inventing the Internet” meme. Totally unnecessary hyperbole that just discredited them.
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lms:
I wish I had grown up in SoCal, but I just moved there after grad school. I did have a bunch of surfer friends (SoCal natives) that tried to get me to surf though. They talked about getting shut out of waves in Hawai’i, particularly on the North Shore. I think one of them ended up surfing Pe’ahi eventually, so he must have gotten in good with some of the big wave surfers.
Unfortunately for me, I was just too old (and busy) to get the hang of surfing. Love the waves though.
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Mike, we’re thinking of actually retiring in Oceanside. There are still some affordable places down there as it’s a military town and we both love the beach so much but can’t afford anywhere else along the CA coast that has warm water in the summer at least. I went to school in San Diego for two years before I got married (the first time) and ended up in LA and the Malibu/Santa Monica area. The only time I’ve lived outside of CA is when I was three to six years old and my dad worked for Standard Oil (I think that was it) in Houston, where my sister was born. My parents hated Texas so my dad quit the oil industry and we moved to Illinois for a year and then back to CA when I was six. I’ve been here ever since. My dad was a beach person so we spent all our free time at the ocean and he was also a terrific swimmer and body surfer. He and I learned to surf together when I was in high school, then my boyfriends took over…………………lol.
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Someone pointed out that the marathon time issue was similar to the whole Al Gore “inventing the Internet” meme. Totally unnecessary hyperbole that just discredited them.
On this week’s Bill Maher show, he said that Mitt Romney is so stiff he makes Al Gore look like James Brown at the Apollo.
It takes three to make a trend, but the Romney/Ryan comparisons to Gore are rolling in only I doubt the Double Rs can even win the popular vote.
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Yello:
I see your alma mater (or at least your avatar’s alma mater) is tied at the half!
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As a metaphor, Krugman finds Ryan’s athletic dissembling quite apt.
These are the sorts of things that latch onto a candidate in the public mind. Being called a zombie-eyed granny-starver is partisan hyperbole, but everybody can rally against a lying braggart.
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Michi,
Thanks for the reminder. I’m not sure about the strategic value of taking on the Hokies in the season opener, but if the Jackets could win, it would be a big feather in their cap.
And who plays college football on a Monday night?
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scott:
To the extent that the downgrade of the US debt matters at all, (which you and I know that it doesn’t) then the two people MOST responsible in the government for that downgrade are Eric Cantor and Paul Ryan. It doesn’t get more hypocritical then that.
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banned:
which you and I know that it doesn’t
True, but it is certainly a symbol of the general malaise that Obama has presided over.
the two people MOST responsible in the government for that downgrade are Eric Cantor and Paul Ryan.
Sorry, I forgot. Obama isn’t responsible for anything that’s happened since he’s been prez. (Clint’s empty chair routine is beginning to make more sense.)
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Calling out Obama for not supporting Simpson-Bowles when Ryan actually sat on the commission and didn’t support its (non-approved) recommendations either is also fairly blatant hypocrisy bordering on deceptive.
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Obama should say in his speech that he thought having an actor represent the GOP at the convention was a good idea but they should have chosen Drew Barrymore.
For Republicans every day is like “50 First Dates”, they never remember what they said or did before this morning.
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JNC, Mike, and Lulu; one more vote against Pacific, here.
I obviously missed this Ryan marathon thingie. Someone please tell all.
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Mark:
See this.
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Here’s the Reader’s Digest condensed version:
Ryan in a radio interview said he had run a marathon in under three hours, “two hour and fifty-something” in his words. Runner’s World called “Bullshit'” and the actual time turned out to be 4:01, two minutes slower than Sarah Palin.
I know lots of runners and they all know exactly what their best marathon or half-marathon time is. A four hour +/- time is still a great run and didn’t need any embellishment.
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scott
If you want to deny that it was those two, you simply either weren’t following it at the time (which I doubt) or you just won’t acknowledge reality.
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banned:
or you just won’t acknowledge reality.
From S&P’s explanation of the downgrade.
“Despite this year’s wide-ranging debate, in our view, the differences between political parties have proven to be extraordinarily difficult to bridge, and, as we see it, the resulting agreement fell well short of the comprehensive fiscal consolidation program that some proponents had envisaged until quite recently. Republicans and Democrats have only been able to agree to relatively modest savings on discretionary spending while delegating to the Select Committee decisions on more comprehensive measures. It appears that for now, new revenues have dropped down on the menu of policy options. In addition, the plan envisions only minor policy changes on Medicare and little change in other entitlements, the containment of which we and most other independent observers regard as key to long-term fiscal sustainability.”
Seems to me like plenty of blame to go around there. I get it, though. Obama supporters read “political differences” and hear “failure to acquiesce to what Obama wants.”
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Jeez Scott, everyone knows that the House Budget committee chairman and the House Majority leader are the two most powerful and influential positions in the world, bar none!
Duh!
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Only one side created a debt ceiling fight, period.
Only one side suggested seriously that it was ok to default.
These are public statements on record, you can’t wish them away.
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banned:
Only one side created a debt ceiling fight, period
If it was the fight over the debt ceiling, and not the underlying fiscal train wreck that is the federal budget, that concerned S&P, they wouldn’t have downgraded after a debt ceiling deal had been reached.
Only one side suggested seriously that it was ok to default
So now you think S&P downgraded the US because of something a single US House member said on a TV show? An interesting theory.
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btw:
You forgot this part of the statement scott:
“Compared with previous projections, our revised base case scenario now assumes that the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts, due to expire by the end of 2012, remain in place. We have changed our assumption on this because the majority of Republicans in Congress continue to resist any measure that would raise revenues, a position we believe Congress reinforced by passing the act.”
OOPS
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“Republican mainstream flirts with brief default”
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/06/08/us-usa-debt-skepticism-idUSTRE75700720110608
Is this going to be another long drawn out argument where I produce citation after citation from the time in question all of which you simply dismiss on your own say so?
Your position is completely untenable in this scott. There is no question that the debt ceiling fight and the downgrade were the responsibility of Republicans who CHOSE to make this pointless stand and who refused to consider raising revenues as specifically cited in the part of the S&P report which you failed to mention.
Now they lie about it, just like they pretend they were never voted in for the legilsation authorizing defense cuts, either
50 First Dates!.
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So now you think S&P downgraded the US because of something a single US House member said on a TV show? An interesting theory.
Banned certainly never said that. That’s pretty much a strategy taking straight from the worst of the PL “contributors”, Scott.
He cited Ryan’s comment as evidence of his hypocrisy in blaming Obama for the decrease in the credit rating. If banned had cited every Republican comment about defaulting then called Ryan a hypocrite, I would have expected you to criticize banned for holding Ryan responsible for comments of his party members. So when he uses a clip of Ryan speaking, you make the above, wild accusation.
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ashot:
Banned certainly never said that.
There are logical implications to things said, even if those implications are not explicitly stated.
That’s pretty much a strategy taking straight from the worst of the PL “contributors”, Scott.
I confess I haven’t been to PL in ages, but if that is the case, the quality of PL comments must certainly have improved greatly since my time.
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There are logical implications to things said
Agreed, but that does not mean yours was any such thing.
even if those implications are not explicitly stated.
Well, they wouldn’t be implications if they were explicitly stated.
I confess I haven’t been to PL in ages, but if that is the case, the quality of PL comments must certainly have improved greatly since my time.
That’s too clever by half.
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ashot:
Agreed, but that does not mean yours was any such thing.
You are right…it doesn’t mean that. But obviously I thought, and think, it was the logical implication, otherwise I wouldn’t have posted it.
Well, they wouldn’t be implications if they were explicitly stated.
True. I noticed that tautology after I posted, but figured it wasn’t worth the effort to correct it, assuming you got the point.
That’s too clever by half.
Whatever.
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banned:
Is this going to be another…
Nice try, but your premise is faulty.
There is no question that the debt ceiling fight and the downgrade were the responsibility of Republicans…
OK, well if you say there is no question, then I guess it can’t be questioned. The notion that Obama’s priorities, his drunken sailor spending, and his incompetence as a national leader might have played a role in creating the political climate that led to the debt ceiling stand-off is, I guess, just beyond consideration.
…in the part of the S&P report which you failed to mention.
Like you, I “failed” to mention almost all of the S&P report, including the part that read “Standard & Poor’s takes no position on the mix of spending and revenue measures that Congress and the Administration might conclude is appropriate for putting the U.S.’s finances on a sustainable footing.”
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Gotta call it like I see it:
The debt ceiling fight was caused by the Republicans. The Democrats and Obama’s position from the beginning was for a “clean” (i.e. unconditional) debt ceiling increase. Obama even went back and had to disavow his previous Senate votes on not raising the debt ceiling. The Republicans were the ones who decided to use it as a forcing issue.
My main issue with the Republican position wasn’t that they decided to leverage the debt ceiling, but rather that having done so they were unable to coalesce around a unified position to cut a deal. Instead we got the triggers & sequestration, etc that they are now disavowing. My impression was that they went into it without a clear idea of exactly what they wanted to accomplish. Don’t start a fight that you aren’t prepared to finish.
Also for Labor Day I finally got around to watching The Company Men which is worth catching for those who haven’t seen it. I suspect it will resonate more with the progressive/liberal side of the blog though.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Company_Men
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“yellojkt, on September 3, 2012 at 8:04 pm said:
Calling out Obama for not supporting Simpson-Bowles when Ryan actually sat on the commission and didn’t support its (non-approved) recommendations either is also fairly blatant hypocrisy bordering on deceptive.”
I dislike the conflation of hypocrisy with “lying”. They aren’t the same thing, and I don’t think that fact checkers should be rating factually true statements as false because the person making the charge is being a hypocrite.
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I dislike the conflation of hypocrisy with “lying”. They aren’t the same thing, and I don’t think that fact checkers should be rating factually true statements as false because the person making the charge is being a hypocrite.
I agree with this. Why not rate it as true and add a paragraph that begins “What Ryan failed to mention…”
I also agree with jnc’s take on the debt limit showdown (no big surprise). It seemed to me that Republicans were emboldend by Obama’s bad polls and their midterm win and thought they could pretty much get whatever they wanted. Ultimately the Dems called the bluff and Republicans didn’t have the stomach to actually default.
Obviously Scott is right that the spending and growing deficit played a role in arriving at the showdown. However, that is true with every debt ceiling. So that’s a constant. What isn’t a constant is the opposing party doing what the Republicans did. So it makes sense to blame the Republicans and makes Ryan’s comments laughable.
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“The notion that Obama’s priorities, his drunken sailor spending, and his incompetence as a national leader might have played a role in creating the political climate that led to the debt ceiling stand-off is, ”
Did you forget the party that for the first time in US history pushed through tax cuts at the same time they were fighting one war and starting another?
Nothing that fiscally irrational has been done in wartime since Russia banned the sale of vodka at the start of World War One and cut off 30% of their tax revenues in the process.
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banned:
Did you forget the party that for the first time in US history pushed through tax cuts at the same time they were fighting one war and starting another?
Nope. Feel free to bash Bush for being a big spender…I won’t object. Feel free also to bash Ryan for not doing anything to stop Bush’s big spending. Again, I won’t object. But please let’s not pretend that Obama and co haven’t raised the ante considerably.
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BTW:
I can’t remember who was touting O’Malley for the presidency, but he laid a big egg this weekend. Party regulars will remember how he blew the easy “are you better off question” all to hell.
He may now have a Cory Booker problem.
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Party regulars will remember how he blew the easy “are you better off question” all to hell.
This is going to be all we are going to hear. For the record, it’s obviously a fair question.
I do think it is interesting seeing Republicans trying to reclaim this empty chair thing with national empty chair day and I just saw a picture of a chair carved into Mount Rushmore. I would think Republicans would be better of letting this go rather than trying to reclaim it.
Has anyone seen 2016? I had a Facebook friend who is very conservative but generally just dislikes Obama’s policies rather than the more personal and visceral opposition I see from our mutual Facebook friends. Anyway, he saw the movie and seems convinced this election will determine the fate of the world. I was curious if anyone else saw the movie and their thoughts.
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“Ultimately the Dems called the bluff and Republicans didn’t have the stomach to actually default.”
There was a fair amount of Democratic infighting as well, however Boehner, Cantor, and McConnell should have had a more unified plan going into it and better contingency planning for what to do if they didn’t get a deal on acceptable terms if they were going to pick this fight.
As a reminder:
“Obama vs. Boehner: Who Killed the Debt Deal?
By MATT BAI
Published: March 28, 2012”
and
“Obama’s evolution: Behind the failed ‘grand bargain’ on the debt
By Peter Wallsten, Lori Montgomery and Scott Wilson, Published: March 17”
http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/obamas-evolution-behind-the-failed-grand-bargain-on-the-debt/2012/03/15/gIQAHyyfJS_story.html
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I haven’t seen it nor do I plan to. The whole secret “Kenyan Anti-colonial” thing strikes me as absurd. When I first heard it, I thought they were saying “Keynesian” which at least would make more sense, and the last I checked this country was actually founded on “anti-colonialism”. See the American Revolution.
On domestic policy, President Obama is a conventional liberal Democrat. Ted Kennedy knew what he was getting when he passed the mantle in 2008, and there’s nothing that President Obama has done domestically that I couldn’t see a President Ted Kennedy having done as well. There’s no need to demonize President Obama beyond that.
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“ashot, on September 4, 2012 at 7:43 am said:
Party regulars will remember how he blew the easy “are you better off question” all to hell.
This is going to be all we are going to hear. For the record, it’s obviously a fair question. ”
Greg Sargent made the point this morning that it’s the standard that President Obama set for himself three years ago, so it’s a pretty easy attack to make.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/post/the-morning-plum-obama-gives-himself-an-incomplete–and-hes-right/2012/09/04/5bba5d18-f67c-11e1-8398-0327ab83ab91_blog.html
I’m still waiting for the Republicans to start running ads with the stimulus prediction chart vs the actual unemployment rate with appropriate clips from the “Summer of Recovery” in 2010.
I also wish that a journalist would ask President Obama that if one accepts the Keynesian premise that the original stimulus failed because it was too small, why does he expect different results from his new one that is roughly half the size of the original one?
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So, if there would have been a clean debt ceiling bill there would have been no credit downgrade?
Really?
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“Troll McWingnut or George, whichever, on September 4, 2012 at 8:09 am said:
So, if there would have been a clean debt ceiling bill there would have been no credit downgrade?
Really?”
Correct. There never was one in the past with all the other debt ceiling hikes. No one even paid attention to the votes until the Republicans decided to make it an issue. We’ve got a few more years to go before everything comes crashing down, unless Europe unexpectedly gets its act together.
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So, there would be no credit downgrade until “everything comes crashing down?”
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So, there would be no credit downgrade until “everything comes crashing down?”
Wow…you and Scott both, eh? jnc certainly never said that, nor do I think that is even a reasonable interpretation of what he said.
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jnc:
The whole secret “Kenyan Anti-colonial” thing strikes me as absurd.
This whole campaign is becoming absurd. We’re talking about empty chairs and marathon times. Lying versus hypocrisy.
Eh. I think I’m just tired of all the negative ads we’ve been bombarded with since June. I’ve reached saturation — I wonder how many of my fellow Floridians have started tuning out the political ads too. We’ve got to be past the point of diminishing returns for campaign ad spending …
I’ve turned into a grumpy old man. Get off my lawn, dammit!
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So, when would a credit downgrade have occurred, if ever if there had been a clean debt ceiling vote? Did we deserve the downgrade we got?
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First, thanx to YJKT and Scott for linking the marathon story.
Second, George, the USA did not deserve the downgrade. It was almost as if the bond rating companies, which totally screwed up during the collapse, were trying to overcorrect by downgrading the strongest debt instrument in the known universe.
the Debt Ceiling is a legislative construct for the purpose of permitting political games. It has no other function.
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McWing:
Did we deserve the downgrade we got?
The short answer is no.
The long answer is that, undoubtedly, there is more doubt today about the US’s long term ability to meet it’s obligations, and so yes, we deserve a downgrade relative to times past. But credit ratings are not meant to be relative, either to times past or to other credits in the market. The question isn’t are we more likely than 10 years ago to be able to fulfill our obligations, nor is it are we more likely than any others to do so. It is simply how likely is it that we will fulfill those debt obligations. I think the answer is still very, very likely, even if there are more questions about it now than previously.
BTW, as an aside, I don’t think it actually makes much sense for sovereigns to be rated/measured in a manner similar to, ie with the same granularity as, corporates or municipalities. The idea that S&P has some special insight that allows them make a distinction between, say, France and the US such that one is AAA and the other is AA+ is pretty silly, I think. I think sovereigns should probably just be rated as one of three categories…1)very stable and very likely to meet long term obligations, 2) somewhat stable and will probably meet long term obligations, and 3) political and economic basket cases.
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The downgrade we got was irrelevant. It didn’t affect borrowing costs at all given that the U.S. is still the “least bad” alternative to Europe.
Things come crashing down once GDP to debt gets too high. I’d prefer we get the fiscal house in order before then, but I don’t expect it to happen as long as the interest rates are this low. I tend to go by Ken Rogoff’s metric of 90% debt to GDP.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-07-14/too-much-debt-means-economy-can-t-grow-commentary-by-reinhart-and-rogoff.html
http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/austerity-and-debt-realism
Click to access Debt_Overhangs.pdf
I believe we are expected to hit 70% by the end of 2012.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Debt-to-GDP_ratio
http://seekingalpha.com/article/736761-debt-as-a-percent-of-gdp-the-one-chart-every-commodity-trader-must-see
Note that a Google search will show that the United States is already in excess of 100% debt to GDP, but I believe that involves a different way of counting. I.e. including Social Security and Medicare debt in addition to external creditors. My understanding is that it’s the external creditors that Rogoff considers the drivers of the metric.
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Thanks Mark. So, is the consensus here that we did not deserve the credit downgrade? If so, at what point, if ever, would we deserve one? What has been the negative consequences of the downgrade we did receive?
I personally cannot fathom how we have the credit rating we do. It should have been downgraded under Bush 43. Wouldn’t extraordinarily high borrowing costs actually help to improve our financial situation?
As I side note, I believe we as a government will actually default on a chunk of the debt.
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If the debt ceiling had been raised as part of the lame duck tax cut extension deal in 2010, it would have been a non-event.
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“Troll McWingnut or George, whichever, on September 4, 2012 at 9:10 am said:
As I side note, I believe we as a government will actually default on a chunk of the debt.”
I think we’ll monetarize it first (i.e. print money) before there’s an actual default.
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“I think we’ll monetarize it first (i.e. print money) before there’s an actual default.’
I’m pretty sure the Fed has done some of that already. Regardless, isn’t monetizing the debt essentially a default?
Finally J, did we deserve the credit downgrade? If not, at what point should be receive one?
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J,
Thought so vis a vis debt monetization. Here’s a couple ‘o links,
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/sheldon-filger/federal-reserve-begins-ma_b_677483.html
http://articles.businessinsider.com/2010-11-08/markets/29980443_1_fomc-dallas-fed-monetary-policy
http://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelpollaro/2010/12/02/the-monetization-of-u-s-government-debt-were-watching/
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I have a question, all: if the strongest debt instrument is the Treasury bill, should it be downgraded because it is not as strong as it was, relative to itself, historically? Seems to me debt is rated compared with other current instruments.
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Thanks Scott, that makes sense. From the ratings standpoint your suggesting though, doesn’t a sovereign’s ability to print it’s own currency (let’s exclude European countries for the sake of argument) mean that it can always meet it’s obligation, rendering that particular metric a little moot? Would it be better to say “very stable and very likely to meet long term obligations without significantly debasing it’s currency” or something like that?
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McWing:
From the ratings standpoint your suggesting though, doesn’t a sovereign’s ability to print it’s own currency (let’s exclude European countries for the sake of argument) mean that it can always meet it’s obligation, rendering that particular metric a little moot?
Yes indeed. That’s one reason why I think sovereigns should be rated in a totally different way, and in fact why sovereign ratings can’t really be that useful in any event. As you say, for the rating to really be meaningful, it would have to measure the likelihood of inflating in order to pay off debt, and I don’t think any of the ratings agencies are really up to making such projections.
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