Morning Report 7/2/12

Vital Statistics:

  Last Change Percent
S&P Futures  1355.4 -1.0 -0.07%
Eurostoxx Index 2280.3 15.5 0.69%
Oil (WTI) 83.5 -1.5 -1.72%
LIBOR 0.461 0.000 0.00%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 81.88 0.253 0.31%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 1.59% -0.06%  
RPX Composite Real Estate Index 182.8 0.3  

Markets are flattish after Friday’s furious rally and some disappointing economic data. Expect low volume this week as the 4th falls on a Wed. There are no major European events on the calendar this week. Bonds and currencies should close early tomorrow. The 10-year is up about point and a half and MBS are up slightly.

In another bullish sign for the real estate market, we have been seeing someone establishing a long position in the RPX futures market.

Merger Monday is back, as we have $15 billion in new deals this morning. Bristol-Myers is buying Amylin and Linde is buying Lincare. Dell has won the bidding war for Quest Software.

The ISM PMI showed contraction in the manufacturing sector – the first such reading since July of 09 – as new orders collapsed. Economists missed the number big-time, as the index came in at 49.7 vs expectations of 52. The drop in commodities prices dropped the prices paid index to 37 from 47.5.

The Markit PMI shows that manufacturing is not accelerating as the economy expands. The index fell to 52.5 from 54 in May. Remember that 50 is more or less the “zero point” and numbers below indicate a contraction in business conditions. In other words, the latest reading indicates conditions are getting better, but just barely. Weakness in Europe is being offset by stronger domestic demand.

9 Responses

  1. Nice to have you back Brent. I firmly believe that when July 4th. falls on a Wednesday we should all just take the entire week off.

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  2. Glaxo settles for an “unprecedented” $3B, admitting criminal guilt about marketing practices and safety information.

    The market shrugs.

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  3. Thanks lms. Wished it was vacation… was actually moving and working on my 10,000-item honeydo list..

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  4. 10,000-item honeydo list

    Wow, I need to work on catching up with your wife, mine’s not nearly long enough.

    Also, we just found out some of that transportation bill money will be filtering through the IE out here so people are looking forward to more jobs on top of the ones we’re already seeing crop up. If CA can turn a corner, still debatable, there’s hope for everyone else. We’re hearing rumors of property values creeping up as well, at least locally.

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  5. Welcome back, brent! Just a curious question, since the markets move in mysterious ways. . . do you know if there has ever been anecdotal evidence of the Tour de France having any influence on them? It just popped into my head because you made the comment about the 4th. . .

    BTW, I agree with lms: your wife’s an overachiever! 🙂

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  6. Thanks, Michigoose, To be honest, I have no idea whether the Tour de France affects markets. I do remember the effect of the World Cup when I was at Bear Stearns in London.

    The matches replaced the normal CNBC / Bloomberg feeds on the TVs on the trading floor. If England was playing, the phones literally stopped ringing. Stocks that typically trade 20 times a second (like British Petroleum) would go minutes without trading. Everyone had their backs to their monitors and were watching the match. A quiet trading floor is a very strange thing to experience.

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  7. Everyone had their backs to their monitors and were watching the match.

    I’m trying to figure out an angle for how this could turn into the perfect opportunity to abscond with all the money. . . .

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  8. Huh. The icons on the site just disappeared for me.

    EDIT: They’re back.

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  9. This is both funny and relevant from Sue over at the PL.

    Christie also said he doesn’t regret calling a reporter “stupid” over the weekend for asking a question at a press conference that was off the designated topic. “[W]hen someone acts stupid, I’m going to call them stupid,” Christie said. “[I]f you don’t have a hearing problem, you should be able to follow the rules. Those are the rules.” (Livewire)

    Chris Christie rules for ATiM……………..take the gloves off?

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Be kind, show respect, and all will be right with the world.