Saturday Football Open Thread (Week 6)

Posted on October 6, 2012 by Michigoose

The weather is changing–here in SLC we had our first dip into the 30s last night for the overnight low.  Leaves are starting to turn, the presidential debates have started, and in 31 days we’ll be voting. . . time for the football to get serious!  First up this week, Utah lost to USC here in Salt Lake Thursday night; after a fluky start in which the Utes scored 14 points in the first 2:15 or so, the Trojans went on to dominate 38 – 28.  Last night Syracuse beat Pitt 14 – 13–Scott, was it a good game or just close?  Incidentally, BYU beat USU 6 – 3 in what, from the last five minutes of the game that I saw, had to be two of the most inept offenses on display this week.  Up for us in ATiM-world today:

MSU is at Indiana (line: MSU, spread 16).  Maybe we could win one this week, guys?  Go Green Go White!

Northwestern is playing Penn State (line: Northwestern, spread 3).  Northwestern is 6 – 0 on the season so far, so this should be a good game to watch (noon EDT on ESPN).

Unless you’re watching USF at Temple (line: USF, spread 4.5).  This one you’ll probably have to stream to watch–Go Bulls!

BC is at Army (line: BC, spread 9.5) also at the same time on CBS.  That’s going to be a busy time for remote controls!  Go, Eagles!

Arizona plays at Stanford (line: Stanford, spread 9.5).  Despite the prediction, everybody is talking about Stanford’s problems with their quarterback. . . maybe the ‘Cats can sneak one in.  Go, Wildcats!

Georgia Tech is at Clemson (line: Clemson, spread 10.0).  The Yellow Jackets are 4 – 1 against Clemson since 2008–yello?  Will they go 5-1 today?

Wisconsin is hosting Illinois (line: UW, spread 11.5).  Go, Badgers!

Oklahoma takes on Texas Tech (line: OU, spread 4.0).  Can I hear a Sooner cheer here, okie?!?

Michigan is at Purdue (line: UM, spread 3.0).  M Go Blue!

Texas hosts West Virginia (line: UT, spread 7.0) in what promises to be an outstanding game.  It’ll be on FOX at 7:00 pm EDT.  Hook ’em, ‘Horns!

Nebraska is at osu (line: osu, spread 3.0).  This game will be on ABC at 8:00 EDT, and the Cornhuskers are my favorite team playing this evening.  Go, ‘Huskers!

Happy football Saturday to all!

Filed under: Fall, Football, Open Thread | 4 Comments »

“Unbroken” – A Book Review

Posted on October 6, 2012 by lmsinca

Interestingly enough this was a difficult book for me to read. Next month will be the five year anniversary of my father’s death. He was a bombardier (First Lieutenant) in WWII and flew over Germany in support of Patton’s Army. Their B17 suffered from structural problems, not unlike the B24.

Part of a passage from my father’s diary reminds me how dangerous their mission was:

Al and I were looking up records of previous missions of the Group. Since they started B-17’s they have had three times as many “major aircraft damage” in half as many missions. Ratio-six to one. That isn’t good.

A couple of years ago I received a copy of a letter my father wrote to one of his buddies after arriving in Europe that never reached his friend. He went down with the plane and the pilot during a terrible fire on the plane, originating in the bomb bay, while most of the crew was able to abandon ship. His nephew tracked me down and I sent him a copy of my dad’s diary and he sent me a copy of the letter my father wrote to his uncle.

My father was also raised in Southern California, not far from Torrance, and graduated from USC. He attended college after the war however, taking advantage of the GI Bill. Reading Louie’s story occupied my time with a lot of reflection and comparing and contrasting stories. It was very strange for me. I kept wishing I could ask my dad what he knew about Louie, if anything.

My father was also an athlete, although not in the same league as Louie (football and swimming), and always stressed participation in athletics as a character building exercise and that the discipline needed to succeed in sports would be useful in fighting life’s adversities. It’s one of the lessons I tried to pass on to our children. Reading Unbroken, I couldn’t help but believe that Louie’s passion for, and commitment to running taught him how to survive in some of the worst circumstances we can imagine.

Anyway, it was an odd experience for me reading the book, even down to the description of the crew flying the Enola Gay and dropping the bomb over Hiroshima. One of my father’s best friends, Rick Nelson, was the radio man on that flight. Reading how the pilot desperately tried to maneuver the plane away from the blast and how the fillings in his teeth tingled gave me chills. I sat around a dining room table on many occasions listening to that story and more.

Luckily my father had a much different experience than Louie. Even though there were bomb bay door fires, feathered engines, blown tires, damaged landing gear, hot flak breaking through the skin of the airplane, and even one emergency landing in Belgium, he flew his 36 missions and came home without suffering the terrible conditions many of these young men did, if they were lucky enough to survive at all.

Another reason I had trouble reading the book was because of the awful conditions the POW’s suffered from. It was a very vivid reminder of why we used to be so careful in our treatment of enemy combatants, at least I thought we were. That kind of brutality and suffering is difficult for me to read about.

This passage from the book really resonated with me.

Few societies treasured dignity, and feared humiliation, as did the Japanese, for whom a loss of honor could merit suicide. This is likely one of the reasons why Japanese soldiers in World War II debased their prisoners with such zeal, seeking to take from them that which was most painful and destructive to lose. On Kwajalein, Louie and Phil learned a dark truth known to the doomed in Hitler’s death camps, the slaves of the American South, and a hundred other generations of betrayed people. Dignity is as essential to human life as water, food, and oxygen. The stubborn retention of it, even in the face of extreme physical hardship, can hold a man’s soul in his body long past the point at which the body should have surrendered it. The loss can carry a man off as surely as thirst, hunger, exposure, and asphyxiation, and with greater cruelty.

I’ll be curious to hear what the rest of you thought of the book.

Filed under: 2012, Book Review, Unbroken, WWII | 85 Comments »

I’m Leaving

Posted on October 5, 2012 by lmsinca

So, I think it’s time for me to leave y’all to your own devices. I’ve had some inklings lately that I’m not suited to the atmosphere here anymore (my own fault) and I really need to spend some time working on a few other projects. You’re all in capable hands (your own) and will hopefully carry on just fine. One suggestion I have is I think ATiM works best if you put the time in to create posts, at least two or three a day on various subjects………..so man up! Hahahahahaha

Seriously, I’ll try to check in on you once in awhile and you know where to find me via email, but please don’t worry if I don’t respond right away. It’s been a tough year for me and I need to change the direction of my life a little and spend a little less time on the internet, while I still have time for other things. I have about six quilts I need to finish, that’s number one.

Love all of you!!!!!!!!!

PS the book review post is scheduled for tomorrow. If you don’t want to carry on with that feature would someone delete the widget after this weekend. I’ll be gone tomorrow so won’t be able to participate.

Sorry for the Friday post but it’s a good dump day for news…lol

Filed under: administrative | 5 Comments »

How I Will Celebrate the Racist Mass Murderer Columbus

Posted on October 5, 2012 by Dave!

Never been a big fan of this holiday – not because I really care if CC really “discovered” America  or was good, bad or ugly.  It just does not rise to the importance of most of the other holidays, at least for me.  That won’t stop me from taking the day off, mind you.  My plans for the weekend are to head to a house we have rented with another family near the Shenendoah River, in the mountains, for a weekend of R&R.  Weather is supposed to turn crappy here so I am not sure exactly what we will be doing but it won’t be work.

Fortunately the place is wired and I won’t miss the news of day on Monday….which is Austrian daredevil Felix Baumgartner and his attempted record skydive from almost 23 miles and probably be the first human to break the sound barrier without a craft.  I love this guy.  I love that the current record holder is on his team.  I love that it is a private sector enterprise.  And I think that the one thing I do admire about CC is that he did have a spirit of adventure, just like Felix.  Well…maybe not quite that adventurous…  Here is the story:

On Monday morning (Oct. 8), Austrian daredevil Felix Baumgartner will attempt to break the world record for highest-ever skydive, leaping from a balloon nearly 23 miles above Earth’s surface.  If all goes according to plan, Baumgartner will step into the void 120,000 feet (36,576 meters) above southeastern New Mexico early Monday, then plummet to Earth in a harrowing freefall that will see him become the first skydiver to break the sound barrier.

After Baumgartner deploys his parachute and floats safely to the desert floor, he and the other architects of his mission — which is known as Red Bull Stratos — can celebrate breaking a skydiving record that has stood for more than 50 years.

One of those congratulating Baumgartner will likely be Joe Kittinger, who set the current record of 102,800 feet (31,333 m) back in 1960 while a captain in the U.S. Air Force. Kittinger serves as a Red Bull Stratos adviser. If everything works out on Monday, Baumgartner will also shatter the marks for fastest freefall, longest-duration freefall and highest manned balloon flight. But the daredevil says his leap is about more than just etching his name in the record books.

“Red Bull Stratos is an opportunity to gather information that could contribute to the development of life-saving measures for astronauts and pilots — and maybe for the space tourists of tomorrow,” Baumgartner said in a statement. “Proving that a human can break the speed of sound in the stratosphere and return to Earth would be a step toward creating near-space bailout procedures that currently don’t exist.”

Baumgartner’s 55-story-high balloon is slated to launch from Roswell, N.M. at dawn Monday, weather permitting. Winds must not exceed 2 mph (3.2 kph) at liftoff to ensure that the balloon — whose material is 10 times thinner than a plastic sandwich bag — isn’t damaged, Red Bull Stratos officials said.

Baumgartner will ride aboard a custom-built pressurized capsule that weighs about 2,900 pounds (1,315 kilograms). A hard landing during a July 25 practice jump from 97,146 feet (29,610 m) damaged the capsule, and the daredevil’s record-breaking attempt was delayed while his team made the necessary repairs.

During the July 25 jump, Baumgartner reached a top freefall speed of 537 mph (864 kph) — about as fast as a commercial airliner. But while his capsule got knocked around a bit, the skydiver landed safe and sound.

Baumgartner said he is nervous about Monday’s leap from the stratosphere. But the 43-year-old daredevil — who has jumped from some of the world’s tallest buildings and soared across the English Channel in freefall using a carbon wing — regards a tinge of fear as a good thing.

“Having been involved in extreme endeavors for so long, I’ve learned to use my fear to my advantage,” Baumgartner said. “Fear has become a friend of mine. It’s what prevents me from stepping too far over the line.”

Red Bull Stratos has described the Oct. 8 attempt as a jump from the edge of space. However, space is generally considered to begin at an altitude of 62 miles (100 km), or 327,000 feet.

 

Filed under: fun stuff | 13 Comments »

Morning Report 10/5/12

Posted on October 5, 2012 by Brent Nyitray

Vital Statistics:

  Last Change Percent
S&P Futures  1463.6 7.8 0.54%
Eurostoxx Index 2523.8 38.1 1.53%
Oil (WTI) 91.12 -0.6 -0.64%
LIBOR 0.351 -0.001 -0.28%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 79.3 -0.050 -0.06%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 1.73% 0.06%  
RPX Composite Real Estate Index 194.3 -0.1  

Markets are higher this morning after a surprisingly good employment report. Stock index futures initially jumped on the number and now have given back the gains. Bonds are down a point and MBS are down 6 ticks on the number.

The unemployment rate dropped to 7.8% from 8.1% in September and total nonfarm payrolls rose by 114k.    The Street was expecting an 8.1% rate.  U6 (the underemployment rate) didn’t change at 14.7%.  873k people became employed in September and the participation rate ticked up to 63.6% from a 30 year low of 63.5%.  It looks like the job gains were largely part time, as that sector increased 582k.  Average weekly hours ticked up to 34.5, and earnings increased .3%.  This report does seem at odds with other economic reports showing the economy is slowing.  It certainly makes you wonder what the Fed was looking at when it announced QEIII.

 

In response to the numbers, Jack Welch tweeted: “Unbelievable jobs numbers…these Chicago guys will do anything… can’t debate so changes numbers.”  Unsurprisingly the left blogosphere is swarming.  That said, Jack (We always beat by a penny) Welch should be the last person throwing stones about massaging the data.  Given that BLS magically found half a million jobs in the sofa cushions, which allows Obama to claim that the economy has reclaimed all the jobs it lost since he took office, we are going to see some predictable partisan doubt on the economic numbers coming out of Washington.

The minutes from the 9/13 FOMC meeting didn’t have anything groundbreaking in it. Some of the regional presidents are doubting how much of an effect further QE can really have.  Certainly there is nothing in the minutes that suggests that the Fed is seeing more strength in the labor market; if anything they note decreases in hiring plans.

Larry Fink of Blackrock told Maria Bartiromo that “we are about a year away from a full rebound in American housing.”  He is worried about the fiscal cliff:  “The fiscal cliff is probably the biggest problem facing us.  We are already seeing a slowdown in the U.S. economy.  I know many CEOs who are sitting with large sums of cash.  If the government comes up with a comprehensive plan to handle it, we would see a huge rally.”

FHFA has a new white paper out for comment regarding a new infrastructure for the secondary mortgage market.  It envisions a platform that could be used by multiple issuers – which could be laying the groundwork for an MBS exchange where issuers can sell new issues electronically instead of over-the-counter.  

Filed under: Morning Report | 78 Comments »

The AL MVP Debate

Posted on October 5, 2012 by ashot

It’s Friday, so how about something on the light side?

We’ve discussed some weighty topics here at ATiM and, with the exceptions of Scott and QB, we’ve all managed to be right once or twice. But we have yet to tackle a topic as important or divisive as: Who should win this year’s American League Most Valuable Player award?

Like the Presidential race, there are two candidates: Mike Trout of the Anaheim Angels and Miguel Cabrera of the Detroit Tigers.

As in the Presidential race, the sides have dug in and the mud-slinging has begun. There are many other similarities as well, but let’s just get to the arguments.

Mike Trout:

.326 BA, 30 HR, 83 RBI, 49 SB, 10.4 WAR (via Fangraphs)

Pros:He’s one of the best center fielders in baseball and is a rookie! He’s having one of the best rookie seasons in the history of baseball.

Cons: His team didn’t make the playoffs and he faded the last month of the season.

Miguel Cabrera:

.330 BA, 44 HR, 139 RBI, 4 SB, 7.2 WAR (via Fangraphs)

Pros: He just won the Triple Crown, meaning he led the American League in Batting Average, RBIs and Home Runs. He is the first player to do so since 1967. He played his best in August and September with the Tigers trying to make the Playoffs.

Cons: He’s not a good defender and he is not a good runner. His team had a worse record than Mike Trout’s team.

Some of you may be asking…what in the world is WAR? WAR is a “new” statistic that stands for Wins Above Replacement and has become somewhat of a dividing line between the Pro-Cabrera and Pro-Trout camps. From Fangraphs: WAR basically looks at a player and asks the question, “If this player got injured and their team had to replace them with a minor leaguer or someone from their bench, how much value would the team be losing?”

So, according to WAR, if Cabrera was replaced with a minor league player, the Tigers would win 7 fewer games while the Angels would win 10 fewer games. Now I could go on and on about these arguments and am happy to do so in the comments, but the bottom line is I’d be voting for Trout. He’s nearly as good of a hitter as Cabrera and he adds a lot more value with his running ability and defense. Who’s got your vote?

Filed under: 2012, fun stuff | Tagged: | 27 Comments »

Morning Report 10/4/12

Posted on October 4, 2012 by Brent Nyitray

Vital Statistics:

  Last Change Percent
S&P Futures  1451.4 6.7 0.46%
Eurostoxx Index 2495.3 2.8 0.11%
Oil (WTI) 88.75 0.6 0.69%
LIBOR 0.352 0.000 -0.07%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 79.74 -0.226 -0.28%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 1.64% 0.03%  
RPX Composite Real Estate Index 194.4 0.2  

Markets are higher this morning after the ECB held rates steady. Generally speaking, the path of least resistance has been up in the equity markets since QEIII.  Bonds and MBS are down small.

Initial Jobless claims came in at 367k, better than expected, but higher from last week’s revised 363k.  Later this afternoon, we will get the minutes of the FOMC meeting which should make interesting reading. 

Lender Processing Services Mortgage Monitor showed delinquencies have dropped almost 50% from peak, while foreclosures remain at their highs.  Which means foreclosures should start dropping in the future. The states with the highest remaining foreclosures are NY, NJ, and HI.

Challenger and Gray reported that planned layoffs are the lowest in 12 years as government downsizing appears to be at an end. While this is a good sign, it doesn’t necessarily mean hiring is about to pick up as headwinds from Europe and Asia, as well as political uncertainty in the US are keeping companies from making any major expansion or hiring moves. They cite a Business Roundtable survey which found that only 30% of CEOs expected to increase capital spending or add more workers.  Those numbers are down from the mid 40s in Q1.  So while layoffs are back at pre-recession levels, hiring is not.

The debate last night was not market moving, but Romney’s performance should put an end to the pundits declaring the race over already.  At the margin, a Romney win would be bond bearish, and possibly stock market bearish since Ben Bernanke would not be re-appointed.  I was happy to hear Romney mention the lack of guidance as to what constitutes a qualified mortgage. 

Filed under: Morning Report | 48 Comments »

Debate Night

Posted on October 3, 2012 by lmsinca

This will be an open thread, live blogging the first Presidential debate.

From a variety of sources this is what we know:

The first presidential debate of 2012 will be held on Wednesday, Oct. 3, at the University of Denver in Denver, Colo. The moderator is Jim Lehrer, executive editor of the PBS NewsHour.

The Commission on Presidential Debates said the 2012 presidential debates will be moderated by a single individual and take place from 9 to 10:30 p.m. Eastern Standard Time. Neither of the candidates will be permitted to give opening statements, but will be allowed 2 minutes for closing statements.

The first debate will focus on domestic policy. The specific topics will be announced several weeks beforehand, and the debate will be divided into six 15-minute segments focusing on each. The moderator will ask a question, and each candidate will have 2 minutes to respond.

It should go something like this:

A debate that will consist of a total of six time segments of approximately fifteen minutes each in length. The issues to be discussed by the candidates have been agreed to in advance of the debate. Lehrer said on September 19, as he announced the issues that would be debated on Wednesday, that the first three segments would focus on “the economy”, while the final three would discuss “health care, the role of government, and governing”.

Each candidate will be asked a question by the moderator, and the candidate will respond with his answer, representing his personal view on the question. Some new proposals may be introduced during the debate, and while the debate will have few direct interactions between the candidates, both candidates are expected to question the proposals of their opponent.

And then a little hopeful thinking from one of Nova’s links:

Who knows? Maybe one day there will be candidates who will see it as politically advantageous to reveal themselves in this way. In the meantime, take note of a meaningful rule change announced this year by the presidential debate commission. For the first time, in the first and third events, the candidates will each get two minutes to respond to the opening question for each 15-minute segment, and then “the moderator will use the balance of the time in the segment for a discussion.” That could mean up to 11 minutes of free-wheeling talk between the candidates. In a 90-minute debate, that could happen six times.

That is not insignificant. And if the candidates use that time not to make speeches or repeat talking points, or to ignore an important question that was just asked, but instead to listen, engage and think in a way the audience can witness, we just might get a presidential debate that deserves the label.

What are you looking for in the debate? Do debates ever change the trajectory of an election? Why are there so few chances for third party candidates to participate? Will we hear any surprises, policy-wise, from what we’ve heard on the campaign trail?

And lastly, here are some body language tells we can all watch for…………hahahahahaha

1. An itchy nose could be a sign that someone isn’t telling the truth. If someone is scratching their nose, there could be an issue

2. Hands in pockets are a sign of insecurity

3. Crossed arms don’t necessarily mean a person is angry or protective: They could just be cold in the studio where the debates are taking place!

4. Touching the neck could be a sign that someone is threatened or feels insecure

5. Finger pointing is a sign of aggression and it can make the audience mistrust the speaker

Another telltale sign, experts say, is frequent blinking by a speaker. It might indicate that person is uncomfortable with the words they are saying.

Filed under: 2012, Debates, Mitt Romney, Obama | 157 Comments »

Morning Report 10/3/12

Posted on October 3, 2012 by Brent Nyitray

Vital Statistics:

  Last Change Percent
S&P Futures  1442.2 1.3 0.09%
Eurostoxx Index 2491.1 -2.5 -0.10%
Oil (WTI) 91.06 -0.8 -0.90%
LIBOR 0.353 -0.002 -0.42%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 79.89 0.143 0.18%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 1.62% 0.00%  
RPX Composite Real Estate Index 194.4 0.2  

Markets are flattish after ADP says US companies added 162,000 jobs in September.  This was better than expectations.  August was revised downward from 201k to 189k.  Mortgage applications rose 16.6% as rates fell.  Bonds and MBS are down small.

Corelogic reported home prices increased 4.6% in August 2012 compared to August 2011.  This was the biggest percentage increase in prices since 2006. All but 6 states reported price gains. They are forecasting a 5% increase for Sep. 

While we fret about Europe, the other problem lies across the Pacific – the bursting of the Chinese real estate bubble. The Chinese appear to be at the final phase of the bubble, where the government is hoping that prices simply stagnate for a decade while economic growth and incomes catch up. Unfortunately, experience tells us once bubbles become inflated they take on a life of their own.  That said, the Chinese are savers, and have a cushion that US and European households do not. 

The Washington Post tries to game the election for the markets.  Bottom line:  the evidence is mixed, so don’t try and trade it.  Of course pundits from each political persuasion will try and claim that they are better for the markets. The article ignores the most important consideration (IMO) – An Obama win means the Fed will continue its policy of aggressive quantitative easing.  A Romney win means a new Federal Reserve Chairman, and presumably less aggressive measures.  So at the margin, an Obama win is bond bullish (or neutral), while a Romney win is bond bearish.  I would say that would apply to the stock market as well, at least in the short term.  Longer term, the economy will benefit more from less manipulation of interest rates than more.  ZIRP is creating imbalances that will create problems down the road.

Filed under: Morning Report | 46 Comments »

Morning Report 10/2/12

Posted on October 2, 2012 by Brent Nyitray

Vital Statistics:

  Last Change Percent
S&P Futures  1444.8 7.9 0.55%
Eurostoxx Index 2513.6 14.8 0.59%
Oil (WTI) 92.8 0.3 0.35%
LIBOR 0.354 -0.001 -0.35%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 79.67 -0.159 -0.20%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 1.65% 0.02%  
RPX Composite Real Estate Index 194.5 0.3  

Markets are higher this morning on speculation Spain is preparing to ask the ECB to purchase its debt. The stock market definitely feels like the path of least resistance is up, though it could be the calm before the storm – Alcoa kicks off earnings season next week. Notable earnings warnings so far include Caterpillar and FedEx.  Bonds and MBS are down / flat.

Yesterday’s ISM Purchasing Managers Report was reasonably constructive.  The headline number of 51.1 means that the economy should expand at roughly 3% or so, at least according to historical trends.  Production and backlog were the weak spot, while employment and prices were areas of strength.

The Washington Post has an article which shows what the Fed is up against: Even though interest rates are at rock bottom levels, savings deposits continue to increase. Risk aversion and the desire to replenish lost savings are behind the phenomenon.  Even though the stock market has rallied, the lack of volume indicates that retail investors are not putting money to work there.  Aside from the risk appetite considerations, it also demonstrates why consumption remains weak. 

You know who loves this situation?  Corporate America.  As if on cue, I just received an email saying WellPoint is issuing $1.5 billion of senior unsecured 30 year convertible bonds tomorrow with a price talk of 2.5% – 3% coupon, 20% – 25% premium.  To put that in perspective, the 30 year government bond is at 2.8% and WLP pays a 1.9% dividend. Old time convertible arbs are shaking their collective heads at that one.

Finally, Bill Gross on budgetary crystal meth and the ring of fire.

Filed under: Morning Report | 67 Comments »

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