Debate Night

Posted on October 3, 2012 by lmsinca

This will be an open thread, live blogging the first Presidential debate.

From a variety of sources this is what we know:

The first presidential debate of 2012 will be held on Wednesday, Oct. 3, at the University of Denver in Denver, Colo. The moderator is Jim Lehrer, executive editor of the PBS NewsHour.

The Commission on Presidential Debates said the 2012 presidential debates will be moderated by a single individual and take place from 9 to 10:30 p.m. Eastern Standard Time. Neither of the candidates will be permitted to give opening statements, but will be allowed 2 minutes for closing statements.

The first debate will focus on domestic policy. The specific topics will be announced several weeks beforehand, and the debate will be divided into six 15-minute segments focusing on each. The moderator will ask a question, and each candidate will have 2 minutes to respond.

It should go something like this:

A debate that will consist of a total of six time segments of approximately fifteen minutes each in length. The issues to be discussed by the candidates have been agreed to in advance of the debate. Lehrer said on September 19, as he announced the issues that would be debated on Wednesday, that the first three segments would focus on “the economy”, while the final three would discuss “health care, the role of government, and governing”.

Each candidate will be asked a question by the moderator, and the candidate will respond with his answer, representing his personal view on the question. Some new proposals may be introduced during the debate, and while the debate will have few direct interactions between the candidates, both candidates are expected to question the proposals of their opponent.

And then a little hopeful thinking from one of Nova’s links:

Who knows? Maybe one day there will be candidates who will see it as politically advantageous to reveal themselves in this way. In the meantime, take note of a meaningful rule change announced this year by the presidential debate commission. For the first time, in the first and third events, the candidates will each get two minutes to respond to the opening question for each 15-minute segment, and then “the moderator will use the balance of the time in the segment for a discussion.” That could mean up to 11 minutes of free-wheeling talk between the candidates. In a 90-minute debate, that could happen six times.

That is not insignificant. And if the candidates use that time not to make speeches or repeat talking points, or to ignore an important question that was just asked, but instead to listen, engage and think in a way the audience can witness, we just might get a presidential debate that deserves the label.

What are you looking for in the debate? Do debates ever change the trajectory of an election? Why are there so few chances for third party candidates to participate? Will we hear any surprises, policy-wise, from what we’ve heard on the campaign trail?

And lastly, here are some body language tells we can all watch for…………hahahahahaha

1. An itchy nose could be a sign that someone isn’t telling the truth. If someone is scratching their nose, there could be an issue

2. Hands in pockets are a sign of insecurity

3. Crossed arms don’t necessarily mean a person is angry or protective: They could just be cold in the studio where the debates are taking place!

4. Touching the neck could be a sign that someone is threatened or feels insecure

5. Finger pointing is a sign of aggression and it can make the audience mistrust the speaker

Another telltale sign, experts say, is frequent blinking by a speaker. It might indicate that person is uncomfortable with the words they are saying.

Filed under: 2012, Debates, Mitt Romney, Obama | 157 Comments »

Morning Report 10/3/12

Posted on October 3, 2012 by Brent Nyitray

Vital Statistics:

  Last Change Percent
S&P Futures  1442.2 1.3 0.09%
Eurostoxx Index 2491.1 -2.5 -0.10%
Oil (WTI) 91.06 -0.8 -0.90%
LIBOR 0.353 -0.002 -0.42%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 79.89 0.143 0.18%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 1.62% 0.00%  
RPX Composite Real Estate Index 194.4 0.2  

Markets are flattish after ADP says US companies added 162,000 jobs in September.  This was better than expectations.  August was revised downward from 201k to 189k.  Mortgage applications rose 16.6% as rates fell.  Bonds and MBS are down small.

Corelogic reported home prices increased 4.6% in August 2012 compared to August 2011.  This was the biggest percentage increase in prices since 2006. All but 6 states reported price gains. They are forecasting a 5% increase for Sep. 

While we fret about Europe, the other problem lies across the Pacific – the bursting of the Chinese real estate bubble. The Chinese appear to be at the final phase of the bubble, where the government is hoping that prices simply stagnate for a decade while economic growth and incomes catch up. Unfortunately, experience tells us once bubbles become inflated they take on a life of their own.  That said, the Chinese are savers, and have a cushion that US and European households do not. 

The Washington Post tries to game the election for the markets.  Bottom line:  the evidence is mixed, so don’t try and trade it.  Of course pundits from each political persuasion will try and claim that they are better for the markets. The article ignores the most important consideration (IMO) – An Obama win means the Fed will continue its policy of aggressive quantitative easing.  A Romney win means a new Federal Reserve Chairman, and presumably less aggressive measures.  So at the margin, an Obama win is bond bullish (or neutral), while a Romney win is bond bearish.  I would say that would apply to the stock market as well, at least in the short term.  Longer term, the economy will benefit more from less manipulation of interest rates than more.  ZIRP is creating imbalances that will create problems down the road.

Filed under: Morning Report | 46 Comments »

Morning Report 10/2/12

Posted on October 2, 2012 by Brent Nyitray

Vital Statistics:

  Last Change Percent
S&P Futures  1444.8 7.9 0.55%
Eurostoxx Index 2513.6 14.8 0.59%
Oil (WTI) 92.8 0.3 0.35%
LIBOR 0.354 -0.001 -0.35%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 79.67 -0.159 -0.20%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 1.65% 0.02%  
RPX Composite Real Estate Index 194.5 0.3  

Markets are higher this morning on speculation Spain is preparing to ask the ECB to purchase its debt. The stock market definitely feels like the path of least resistance is up, though it could be the calm before the storm – Alcoa kicks off earnings season next week. Notable earnings warnings so far include Caterpillar and FedEx.  Bonds and MBS are down / flat.

Yesterday’s ISM Purchasing Managers Report was reasonably constructive.  The headline number of 51.1 means that the economy should expand at roughly 3% or so, at least according to historical trends.  Production and backlog were the weak spot, while employment and prices were areas of strength.

The Washington Post has an article which shows what the Fed is up against: Even though interest rates are at rock bottom levels, savings deposits continue to increase. Risk aversion and the desire to replenish lost savings are behind the phenomenon.  Even though the stock market has rallied, the lack of volume indicates that retail investors are not putting money to work there.  Aside from the risk appetite considerations, it also demonstrates why consumption remains weak. 

You know who loves this situation?  Corporate America.  As if on cue, I just received an email saying WellPoint is issuing $1.5 billion of senior unsecured 30 year convertible bonds tomorrow with a price talk of 2.5% – 3% coupon, 20% – 25% premium.  To put that in perspective, the 30 year government bond is at 2.8% and WLP pays a 1.9% dividend. Old time convertible arbs are shaking their collective heads at that one.

Finally, Bill Gross on budgetary crystal meth and the ring of fire.

Filed under: Morning Report | 67 Comments »

Morning Report 10/1/12

Posted on October 1, 2012 by Brent Nyitray

Vital Statistics:

  Last Change Percent
S&P Futures  1439.0 4.8 0.33%
Eurostoxx Index 2480.9 26.7 1.09%
Oil (WTI) 91.72 -0.5 -0.51%
LIBOR 0.355 -0.003 -0.91%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 79.8 -0.135 -0.17%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 1.62% -0.02%  
RPX Composite Real Estate Index 194.5 0.0  

Stock index futures are higher as we kick off the 4th quarter.  There are no major headlines or economic data this morning. Later this week, we will get the FOMC minutes from the last meeting, and Friday’s jobs report will have market moving potential. Bonds and MBS are up.

Will the fiscal cliff affect housing in any way?  Perhaps.  One provision in the expiring tax cuts is the 2007 Mortgage Forgiveness Debt Relief Act and Debt Cancellation which made the debt forgiveness in short sales non-taxable.  Typically debt forgiveness is considered taxable income.  If this provision goes away, short sales and mods with principal forgiveness may grind to a halt.

Meanwhile, HUD secretary Shaun Donovan was defending the mortgage interest deduction on the Sunday morning talk circuit over the weekend.

Filed under: Morning Report | 79 Comments »

Open Thread – Monday (Edited)

Posted on September 30, 2012 by lmsinca

I’m still working but took a break this afternoon to do a little reading. I’m trying to finish Unbroken but I’m not there yet. Next weekend is the book review………..hint, hint. I’ve also been working on our taxes, that’s right we filed an extension (just like the Romneys), but I have even less money now than I did in April to pay what we still owe……………yikes. And we finally got the rest of the parts we needed to finish our big export order to Taiwan, which we’re trying to get out the door (that’s money in the bank). Anyway, I did read a couple of interesting pieces during my breaks this weekend that might spark a little conversation.

Last week Nova linked this piece from the Atlantic about why liberals shouldn’t vote for Obama. It was interesting but didn’t sway me. I’d already explored all of the issues and decided I’m going to vote for him anyway. The most important issue for me is health care reform and even though he didn’t get the bill I wanted I’ve decided repealing the ACA is too big of a threat for me to not support him.

One of the issues discussed was our drone policy, particularly in Pakistan.

Obama terrorizes innocent Pakistanis on an almost daily basis. The drone war he is waging in North Waziristan isn’t “precise” or “surgical” as he would have Americans believe. It kills hundreds of innocents, including children. And for thousands of more innocents who live in the targeted communities, the drone war makes their lives into a nightmare worthy of dystopian novels. People are always afraid. Women cower in their homes. Children are kept out of school. The stress they endure gives them psychiatric disorders. Men are driven crazy by an inability to sleep as drones buzz overhead 24 hours a day, a deadly strike possible at any moment. At worst, this policy creates more terrorists than it kills; at best, America is ruining the lives of thousands of innocent people and killing hundreds of innocents for a small increase in safety from terrorists. It is a cowardly, immoral, and illegal policy, deliberately cloaked in opportunistic secrecy. And Democrats who believe that it is the most moral of all responsible policy alternatives are as misinformed and blinded by partisanship as any conservative ideologue.

Then today I saw these charts and thought what the hell? I haven’t had the time to look into where exactly the information came from but according to them there have been exactly zero civilian deaths in Pakistan due to drone strikes this year. Can that be true?

This piece, “Is Karl Rove Losing It?”, is a pretty interesting take on Karl Rove and the author wonders if he really has as much power as he thinks he does. It’s probably just wishful thinking, those of us on the left aren’t too fond of the guy.

Karl Rove is back as GOP party boss, but this time it’s clear that even the best-laid plans of the savviest political strategists often go awry.

That became obvious earlier this week, on Sept. 25, when Missouri senatorial candidate Todd Akin reaffirmed that he was staying in the race in defiance of Rove, who had demanded Akin’s withdrawal and yanked American Crossroads’ millions from his campaign after Akin touted the prophylactic character of “legitimate rape.”

When pulling the super PAC dough didn’t faze the stubborn Missouri Tea Partyer, Rove went ballistic. “We should sink Todd Akin,” he declared , according to Bloomberg Businessweek. “If he’s found mysteriously murdered, don’t look for my whereabouts!”

Rove’s remarks did more than just reopen the schism between the GOP establishment he embodies and the Tea Party, which has begun to see him as a ruthless party boss. It also showed that the Republicans have another serious problem in addition to Mitt Romney’s disastrous candidacy: Karl Christian Rove.

And lastly this one suggests three reasons why Romney isn’t doing better than he is. I do realize it’s not over though…..believe me.

1. His stand on the auto bailout “Let Detroit Go Bankrupt” has hurt him in states like Ohio.

2. He probably lost Florida when he chose Ryan as his running mate as the majority of seniors apparently don’t like their plans for Medicare…………even if they were excluded from the cuts.

3. His lack of connection with ordinary Americans exemplified by his 47% comments.

Filed under: 2012, aca, Book Review, Medicare, Mitt Romney, Obama | Tagged: | 20 Comments »

A Primer on War with Iran

Posted on September 30, 2012 by markinaustin

THIS DOCUMENT IS EASILY READ BY CLICKING THE FULL SCREEN ICON IN THE LOWER RIGHT CORNER.
 – Mark

Filed under: 2013 and beyond, budget, IRAN, Islam, Middle East, nuclear proliferation | 10 Comments »

Where the Buck Stops…

Posted on September 29, 2012 by Dave!

So Yahoo! typically posts news articles that are amazingly content-free or are about Hollywood celebs (or both I guess).  But every once in a while, they seem to mistakenly post an article that is somewhat interesting in an academic way.  Now by no means is this one an in depth analysis, but I found it interesting.  It is entitled “Where did the mammoth US budget deficits come from?”  and can be found http://news.yahoo.com/where-did-mammoth-us-budget-deficits-come-211927495.html

Aside from the fact that it will confuse non-ATiM members because it does not distinguish between debt and deficit very well, it is a fairly straitforward look at the budget history and problems.  While it’s probably too simplistic for posters here in general, it could be a base for a more in depth budget discussion…perhaps in preparation for Debate I….or sequestration.

Filed under: budget, Economy | 6 Comments »

Saturday Football Open Thread, Week Five

Posted on September 29, 2012 by Michigoose

Another crisp fall morning here in SLC–it’s only 54 outside right now (7:40 a.m. MDT) but it’s supposed to get up to 82 for the high today.  Life, elevated!  How’s the football looking?  Well, Stanford lost to UW in Husky Stadium Thursday night 17 – 13, which if you have to lose is at least a pretty place to do it (you should see the views of Lake Washington and the Cascades from the stadium).  BYU slaughtered Hawaii last night 47 – 0 in Provo; I didn’t watch either game as I was having dinner with friends on Thursday and busy with other stuff last night, so if anyone has any great insights into the games feel free to share.

Today’s games:

Mid Tennessee is at Georgia Tech, which must be yet another of those pre-ACC let’s-make-some-money-for-the-little-guy match ups.  (line: GT, spread 28).  Anything to note, yello? [Update: Wow!!  Mid Tennessee takes it 49 – 28!  Next week, yello. . .]

Penn State is playing at Illinois (line: PSU, spread 4).  Should be a good, classic Big Ten game.  Go Nittany Lions! [Update: PSU 35 – 7 as Illinois couldn’t convert a goal line stand as time ran out.]

Minnesota is at Iowa (line: UM, spread 6).  More classic (and by that I mean “three yards and a cloud of dust” plays) Big Ten ball.  Go, Golden Gophers! [Update: Iowa wins 31 – 13]

Clemson is playing Boston College (line: Clemson, spread 7).  Games are tightening up this week as we move into conference play. . . go, Eagles!  [Update: Clemson 45 – 31]

osu is going to lose to MSU, I just know it (line: MSU, spread 3).  You know where I’ll be at 11:30 1:30 MDT (stupid time zones!).  Game is on ABC.  GO SPARTANS!!!!!!  [Update:  damn.  osu 17 – 16]

Florida State is at USF (line: FSU, spread 17.0)  C’mon, Bulls, win this!  [Update:  FSU 30 – 17]

Texas is playing the other OSU (line: UT, spread 3.0)  Mark and okie, y’all be nice to each other, now.  Or at least polite!  (FOX at 7:50 p.m. EDT)  [Update: Texas wins 41 – 36 in the last minute.  OSU’s last possession was one of the wildest and wooliest I’ve seen in a long time–a nail-biter of a game!]

Wisconsin is at Nebraska, that Big Ten upstart (line: Nebraska, spread 11.5)  Another intra-ATiM game; I’ll leave Brent and Fairlington Blade to duke it out.  [Update: Nebraska wins 30 – 27 when UW fumbles on a 4th and 1 with 1:11 remaining.  Another nail-biter (the football’s getting much better now that we’re into the “real” games!!]

And, finally, Oregon State plays Arizona (line: Arizona, spread 3.0)  You’ve got another chance to prove McWing wrong here, ‘Cats!  Beat those Beavers!  [Update:  OSU wins 38 – 35–I lost track of how many times the lead changed hands in the 4th quarter.  Excellent game!]

Off this week are USC (vs Utah next week), Syracuse (Pitt), Michigan (Purdue) and Oklahoma (Texas Tech).

Filed under: Fall, Football, Open Thread | 18 Comments »

Morning Report 9/28/12

Posted on September 28, 2012 by Brent Nyitray

Vital Statistics:

Last Change Percent
S&P Futures 1433.2 -7.9 -0.55%
Eurostoxx Index 2470.5 -35.6 -1.42%
Oil (WTI) 91.65 -0.2 -0.22%
LIBOR 0.359 -0.002 -0.49%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 79.56 0.009 0.01%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 1.61% -0.05%
RPX Composite Real Estate Index 194.5 0.0

Markets are weaker on no real news.  Personal Income came in weaker than expected and personal spending was in line with estimates. The .5% increase in spending was driven by a .4% increase in prices. Bonds are up about half a point and MBS are up 1/4.

On the back of the puzzling statistic showing a 17% increase in new home prices, BLS is now saying an additional 453k jobs were added in 2011, bringing the hiring estimate up from 1.9 million to 2.3 million. Is the obama administration playing jiggery-pokery with the economic data?  Well, that is one way to fix the economy.

Amidst all of the usual theories about the cause of the financial crisis (Glass-Steagall, nefarious bankers, Fannie and Fred) we have another – flaws in democracy itself.  He does sound a bit like Thomas (Flathead) Friedman in that he envies more authoritarian societies that are able to push through policies without much opposition.

Is QEIII going to do much for the real estate market? According to Thomas Flexner, global head of real estate at Citi, it won’t “do very much at all.”  Blame tight lending standards. Also, as g-fees increase that will offset part of the lower interest rate effect.

Filed under: Morning Report | 58 Comments »

What Kind of EconoTroll Are You?

Posted on September 27, 2012 by yellojkt

Noah Smith of Noahpinion has published a taxonomy of commenters found on economics oriented blogs. It struck me that a lot of them sounded awfully familiar but I couldn’t quite put types to aliases. So I invite ATiMers to self-diagnose and pick what arbitrary ill-fitting bin they belong in. Feel free to mix and match. Choices include:

Libertarian
Post Keynesian
Market Monetarist
Republican
Austrian
Modern Monetary Theorist
Marxist
Scientist
New Classical

As for myself, I have to classify myself as a Krugmanite, a type mentioned in the comments, since Krugman is the only economist I actually ever agree with even if I can’t understand anything labeled ‘wonkish’.

Filed under: Economy | 5 Comments »

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