Saturday Football Open Thread (Week 7)

Posted on October 13, 2012 by Michigoose

I’m not sure that any of us cared much about the early games this week; on Thursday Western KY beat Troy 31 – 26,  Tulsa beat UTEP 33 – 11 (UTEP had a field goal and then a touchdown with a two-point conversion), and Arizona State clobbered Utah’s fellow inductee into the Pac12, Colorado, 51 – 17.  Last night  Navy beat Central Michigan 31 – 13 in Mt Pleasant (sorry, Aunt Nancy!).

On the menu for today:

Iowa is playing at MSU (line: MSU, spread 11.5).  Once more into the breach (to mix battles)–go, Spartans! [Update: MSU loses 19 – 16 in OT]

Northwestern, the surprise of the Big Ten this year, is at Minnesota (line: Northwestern, spread 3.5).  Should be an excellent game, and for bsimon’s sake, go Gophers! [Update: Northwestern wins 21 – 13]

Syracuse is at Rutgers (line: Rutgers, spread 7.5)  in Big East play.  Go, Orange!  (Why just “Orange”, Scott?) [Update:  Syracuse loses 23 – 15]

And, ahem, the intra-ATiM death match of the week: Texas is venturing into the lions’ den in the Cotton Bowl which is actually closer to Norman, Oklahoma at noon EDT (ABC)(line: Oklahoma, spread 3.0).  I’m backing away slowly from this one and letting Mark and okie have at it with the trash talk. . .

In a huge surprise, okie goes with the spread and picks the Sooners 31-28. But she’s going to be terribly annoyed if it turns out the Sooners lose by a Penn State field goal. Sooners have the edge at QB, but the game really depends on which defense is worse. Ay-yi-yi for both defenses. Damien Williams could make a huge difference for the Sooner running game if he isn’t overwhelmed by his first experience in the atmosphere of this game. This is a really great rivalry game! In person, the huge crowd demarked at the 50 yard line with a sea of red in one direction and a sea of orange in the other is amazing. Saving the trash talk for the comments. BOOMER SOONER! okie

For the ‘Horns, watch out for Johnathan Gray, last year’s HS running back of the year, as a potential difference maker. QB David Ash has come so far, so fast, as a sophomore, that I won’t concede Landry Jones is still his better. Okie is right about the suspect defenses, yet both squads are sprinkled with huge raw talent. I think it will be close and middling high scoring, as does Okie. 35-28 UT? Could be. HOOK ‘EM! MiA

[Update: OU crushes smushes UT 63 – 21]

Wisconsin is at Purdue (line: Purdue, spread 1.0).  Boil ’em, Badgers! [Update: UW wins 38 – 14]

Utah is playing UCLA (line: UCLA, spread 6.0).  It would be nice if the Utes could win again. . . [Update: UCLA beats Utah 21  – 14]

Stanford is in South Bend to see if Notre Dame can make it 6 – 0 (line: Notre Dame, spread 7.0) [Update: Notre Dame wins 20 – 13]

Illinois is in The Big House (line: UM, spread 21).  Go Blue! [Update:  UM smushes Illinois 45 – 0]

Boston College is playing FSU (line: FSU, spread 27).  Er, Go Eagles! [Update:  FSU wins 51 – 7]

tOSU (Okie and Mark call Okie Lite OSU and “the Ohio State” tOSU) I don’t care–as the “official” Saturday Football poster at ATiM that school in Columbus, OH, gets no love and no upper case from me:  osu is at Indiana (line: tOSU osu, spread 17.5).  C’mon, IU, you gave my alma mater a scare last week.  Really go for it this week!!  Damn Big 12 folks are too polite to “that school”. . . 🙂  [Update:  IU can’t catch up and osu pulls off another win 52 – 49]

Off this week:  Penn State, USF, Arizona, Georgia Tech, and Nebraska.

Happy Saturday to one and all–may the right teams win!

Filed under: Fall, Football, Open Thread | 33 Comments »

Morning Report 10/12/12

Posted on October 12, 2012 by Brent Nyitray

Vital Statistics 

  Last Change Percent
S&P Futures  1433.4 5.0 0.35%
Eurostoxx Index 2492.4 5.3 0.21%
Oil (WTI) 92.14 0.1 0.08%
LIBOR 0.334 -0.006 -1.76%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 79.61 -0.161 -0.20%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 1.68% 0.01%  
RPX Composite Real Estate Index 194.4 0.1  

Stocks are higher this morning after positive earnings out of JP Morgan and Wells Fargo. Mortgage banking drove revenues and profits. The Producer Price Index came in higher than expected, although it was lower ex-food and energy.  Bonds and MBS are flattish.

Was the debate last night market moving?  Of course not.  Best headline to sum it up:  GOP and Dems agree: Our guy won.

It turns out yesterday’s unexpectedly large drops in unemployment claims was due to a large state mistakenly reporting its claims.  

Frank Blake of the Home Despot sees a full blown housing recovery as a year or two away. He points to customer attitudes – do homeowners consider a home improvement as an investment to be recouped when the house is sold, or simply an expense.  I would agree – considering a granite countertop an “investment” is definitely bull-market thinking.

What is the role of the CFPB?  It was sold as an agency dedicated to more transparency and ensuring consumers are fully informed when making financial decisions.  But to the people that work there, the mission is to force financial service providers to give consumers a better deal. The Mortgage Bankers Association warns of unintended consequences.

Filed under: Morning Report | 29 Comments »

Come On, I’m Not a Robot, Okay? I Wish!

Posted on October 11, 2012 by Kevin S. Willis

Bad Lip Reading makes performance art out of the presidential debates:

 

It’s party time, chumps!

Filed under: fun stuff | 1 Comment »

Morning Report 10/11/12

Posted on October 11, 2012 by Brent Nyitray

Vital Statistics:

Last Change Percent
S&P Futures 1433.8 7.5 0.53%
Eurostoxx Index 2473.0 16.4 0.67%
Oil (WTI) 92.44 1.2 1.30%
LIBOR 0.34 -0.003 -0.73%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 79.83 -0.092 -0.12%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 1.71% 0.04%
RPX Composite Real Estate Index 194.3 -0.4

Markets are firmer after a surprisingly low initial jobless claims report. Initial Jobless claims fell to 339k, which is below the average over the past 45 years and more or less consistent with normal non-recessionary economies. Bonds and MBS are down on the report.

At the Council on Foreign Relations yesterday, Jamie Dimon revealed the background to the Bear Stearns deal:  “We did them [the government] a favor.  We were asked to do it and we did it at great risk to ourselves.”  Many on Wall Street suspected the flurry of merger activity at the height of the financial crisis – JPM / Bear & Wamu, Bank of America / Countrywide and Merrill, and Wells / Wachovia were a series of shotgun weddings ordered by the government.  Now we have someone explicitly saying that it was.  You would think that would be news, especially since the government is suing JPM for stuff that Bear did prior to the merger.  Or that fact would be interesting to people who bemoan TBTF. To the Washington Post, they discuss Dimon’s comments with the snarky headline “The Financial Gospel according to JP Morgan Chase CEO.” without mentioning the Bear issue, where they focus on the London Whale. If WaPo is truly representative of the Washington mindset, I guess that article speaks volumes about the disconnect between Wall Street and Washington.

California led the nation into the housing bust; now it is leading the nation out of it. Strength on the coast is steadily moving inland.  The Northeast was one of the last to go into crisis, and is still lagging, although rents are up 10% in Manhattan.

Are distressed sales artificially lowering comps, which feeds into appraisal problems with home sales?  The NAR thinks so. Given that you have to use comparable sales, appraisals will lag the market, almost by definition.  This has caused problems on 35% of sales.

Filed under: Morning Report | 9 Comments »

I DON’T WANT TO BELIEVE THEY ARE THIS STUPID

Posted on October 11, 2012 by markinaustin

Letting us in on a secret
By Dana Milbank, Published: October 10

When House Republicans called a hearing in the middle of their long recess, you knew it would be something big, and indeed it was: They accidentally blew the CIA’s cover.

The purpose of Wednesday’s hearing of the Oversight and Government Reform Committee was to examine security lapses that led to the killing in Benghazi last month of the U.S. ambassador to Libya and three others. But in doing so, the lawmakers reminded us why “congressional intelligence” is an oxymoron.

Through their outbursts, cryptic language and boneheaded questioning of State Department officials, the committee members left little doubt that one of the two compounds at which the Americans were killed, described by the administration as a “consulate” and a nearby “annex,” was a CIA base. They did this, helpfully, in a televised public hearing.

Rep. Jason Chaffetz (R-Utah) was the first to unmask the spooks. “Point of order! Point of order!” he called out as a State Department security official, seated in front of an aerial photo of the U.S. facilities in Benghazi, described the chaotic night of the attack. “We’re getting into classified issues that deal with sources and methods that would be totally inappropriate in an open forum such as this.”

A State Department official assured him that the material was “entirely unclassified” and that the photo was from a commercial satellite. “I totally object to the use of that photo,” Chaffetz continued. He went on to say that “I was told specifically while I was in Libya I could not and should not ever talk about what you’re showing here today.”

Now that Chaffetz had alerted potential bad guys that something valuable was in the photo, the chairman, Darrell Issa (R-Calif.), attempted to lock the barn door through which the horse had just bolted. “I would direct that that chart be taken down,” he said, although it already had been on C-SPAN. “In this hearing room, we’re not going to point out details of what may still in fact be a facility of the United States government or more facilities.”

May still be a facility? The plot thickened — and Chaffetz gave more hints. “I believe that the markings on that map were terribly inappropriate,” he said, adding that “the activities there could cost lives.”

In their questioning and in the public testimony they invited, the lawmakers managed to disclose, without ever mentioning Langley directly, that there was a seven-member “rapid response force” in the compound the State Department was calling an annex. One of the State Department security officials was forced to acknowledge that “not necessarily all of the security people” at the Benghazi compounds “fell under my direct operational control.”

And whose control might they have fallen under? Well, presumably it’s the “other government agency” or “other government entity” the lawmakers and witnesses referred to; Issa informed the public that this agency was not the FBI.

“Other government agency,” or “OGA,” is a common euphemism in Washington for the CIA. This “other government agency,” the lawmakers’ questioning further revealed, was in possession of a video of the attack but wasn’t releasing it because it was undergoing “an investigative process.”

Or maybe they were referring to the Department of Agriculture.

That the Benghazi compound had included a large CIA presence had been reported but not confirmed. The New York Times, for example, had reported that among those evacuated were “about a dozen CIA operatives and contractors.” The paper, like The Washington Post, withheld locations and details of the facilities at the administration’s request.

But on Wednesday, the withholding was on hold.

The Republican lawmakers, in their outbursts, alternated between scolding the State Department officials for hiding behind classified material and blaming them for disclosing information that should have been classified. But the lawmakers created the situation by ordering a public hearing on a matter that belonged behind closed doors.

Republicans were aiming to embarrass the Obama administration over State Department security lapses. But they inadvertently caused a different picture to emerge than the one that has been publicly known: that the victims may have been let down not by the State Department but by the CIA. If the CIA was playing such a major role in these events, which was the unmistakable impression left by Wednesday’s hearing, having a televised probe of the matter was absurd.

The chairman, attempting to close his can of worms, finally suggested that “the entire committee have a classified briefing as to any and all other assets that were not drawn upon but could have been drawn upon” in Benghazi.

Good idea. Too bad he didn’t think of that before putting the CIA on C-SPAN.

danamilbank@washpost.com

Filed under: Congress | 55 Comments »

Morning Report 10/10/12

Posted on October 10, 2012 by Brent Nyitray

Vital Statistics:

  Last Change Percent
S&P Futures  1437.2 1.3 0.09%
Eurostoxx Index 2467.5 -4.8 -0.19%
Oil (WTI) 92.42 0.0 0.03%
LIBOR 0.343 -0.004 -1.15%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 79.93 -0.018 -0.02%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 1.75% 0.03%  
RPX Composite Real Estate Index 194.8 0.1  

Markets are flattish after Alcoa cut its forecast for global aluminum demand in its earnings release.  Earnings were better than expected, but the forecast is weighing on the stock, which is down a couple of percent pre-open. Analysts are predicting a 2% drop in Q3 earnings for the S&P 500.  Mortgage applications fell. Bonds and MBS are down small.

Corelogic reported a 10% decline in shadow inventory down to 2.3 million units in July. This represents six month’s supply.  Geographically, Florida, California, Illinois, New York, and New Jersey account for 45% of all distressed properties. Currently, the flow of properties into shadow inventory is more or less equal to outflows. Remember that shadow inventory does not count properties currently listed on MLSs so it isn’t a full picture of housing inventory.

The government is going after Wells for reckless lending on FHA loans. Prosecutors say the bank claimed over 100,000 loans were FHA compliant when it knew they were not. Wells notes that its FHA delinquency rates are half the industry average. Meanwhile, revenues are up 37%  for mortgage bankers and Wells is the biggest.  The government giveth, the government taketh away…

Issuers of MBS are going to be watching the outcome of the lawsuit against Flagstar closely.  Judge Rakoff is no friend of the securities industry…

FHFA has released its new strategic plan for the mortgage market. Housing advocates will dislike two portions of this – first the fact that there remains no interest in principal reductions, and second, that FHA remains interested in varying guarantee fees by state.  Which means that judicial states will have higher mortgage rates than non-judicial states. They also intend to review the servicing compensation model.

Fannie Mae has a touchy-feely survey of attitudes about homeownership and the economy.

Filed under: Morning Report | 37 Comments »

How The Internet Will Transform Government

Posted on October 9, 2012 by Kevin S. Willis

Although I think the application is a little broader: the Internet is already transforming everything. The first example Clay Shirky cites is that of a girl who took pictures of her school lunch every day, and then was told she had to take it down.

As he points out: why did the school think they could get away with it? Because for the entire history of humanity up until this point, they pretty much could.

Doesn’t make me optimistic about the possibility that the Internet will lead to world peace, however.

Filed under: TED Talks | Tagged: , , | 3 Comments »

Morning Report 10/9/12

Posted on October 9, 2012 by Brent Nyitray

Vital Statistics:

  Last Change Percent
S&P Futures  1452.0 2.2 0.15%
Eurostoxx Index 2493.4 -2.7 -0.11%
Oil (WTI) 90.29 1.0 1.07%
LIBOR 0.347 -0.004 -1.00%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 79.64 0.098 0.12%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 1.72% -0.02%  
RPX Composite Real Estate Index 194.6 0.3  

Markets are slightly higher this morning in spite of the fact that the IMF cut its global growth forecast. Alcoa kicks off earnings season after the close tonight.  S&P expects earnings to drop by 2% this quarter. Bonds are down slightly while MBS are up.

The National Federation of Independent Businesses reported small business optimism dropped slightly in September.  Overall, the mood is one of “uncertainty” and the outlook remains glum.  Topping the list of concerns was the rising cost of health care insurance, followed by economic conditions, energy costs, and taxes & regulation. Access to credit is not an issue anymore. 

 

 

FBR banking analyst Paul Miller says its time to start falling in love with mortgage banks again. Of course virtually all of the publicly traded mortgage banks went under during the crisis. He makes an aggressive interest rate forecast – mortgage rates dropping to 3% over the next quarter or two.  As a result, he sees the refi boom lasting until late 2013. Ben Bernake’s Refi Nation continues…

The battle over last Friday’s surprising payroll continues with a novel angle:  the payroll employment survey numbers were too low. Needless to say, the interpretation of the jobs report has fallen along partisan lines, with those who doubt the numbers being compared to the black helicopter crowd.  Jack Welch opened up a hornet’s nest with that tweet calling B.S. on the B.L.S. Is there an election coming up or something?

Filed under: Morning Report | 53 Comments »

Morning Report 10/8/12

Posted on October 8, 2012 by Brent Nyitray

Vital Statistics:

  Last Change Percent
S&P Futures  1449.8 -5.7 -0.39%
Eurostoxx Index 2501.7 -29.5 -1.16%
Oil (WTI) 88.55 -1.3 -1.48%
LIBOR 0.35 -0.001 -0.28%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 79.62 0.281 0.35%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 1.74% 0.00%  
RPX Composite Real Estate Index 194.6 0.3  

Stocks are lower this morning on no real news. There is no economic data this morning and the bond market is closed for Columbus Day. Alcoa kicks off the earnings season tomorrow.

Treasury and HUD released their monthly Housing Scorecard, which shows that the number of underwater homeowners fell from 12.1 million in Q411 to 10.8 million in Q212.  The report doesn’t really delve into what caused the drop – was driven by home appreciation, or was it driven by foreclosures and short sales? Most of the report focuses on the Administration’s efforts regarding aid to distressed borrowers. 

Bob Schiller has an interesting article on the psychology of the housing market during the bubble years and now. He makes an interesting observation – “In 2004, there was little about the economic climate that would explain why a housing peak should be coming soon.  The world was widely believed to be slowly emerging from the early-2000s recession, which had been associated with the bursting of the stock market bubble of the 1990s.  The stock market was just starting to recover.  It seemed a time of healing.”  The real estate market will surely recover, and while we are breathing a sigh of relief, some other bubble may be forming.  That is the problem when you have a Federal Reserve which keeps trying to put the wealth-effect genie back in the bottle.

The latest “selling you the Brooklyn Bridge” scam – advertising REO as rentals.  Pretty brazen stuff.

Commercial real estate pricing has almost returned to its 2007 peak.

Filed under: Morning Report | 27 Comments »

Sunday Links

Posted on October 7, 2012 by jnc4p

Some reading material from the Internet today:

1. Interesting profile of Romney’s governorship of Massachusetts in the NYT:

“The Mitt Romney Who Might Have Been
By ROBERT DRAPER
Published: October 2, 2012

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/07/magazine/mitt-romney.html?hp

It appears to have been written prior to the debate.

2. I’m shocked that businesses would figure out how to circumvent the ACA’s mandates by self insuring.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/wp/2012/10/07/could-small-businesses-skirt-obamacares-mandates/

http://healthpolicyandmarket.blogspot.com/2012/10/will-smallest-employers-circumvent.html

3. Steve Pearlstein on job creators:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/i-am-a-job-creator-a-manifesto-for-the-entitled/2012/09/28/756f2e90-07ee-11e2-858a-5311df86ab04_story.html

and the side effects of cost reduction in non-labor intensive industries

http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/steven-pearlstein-why-cheaper-computers-lead-to-higher-tuition/2012/10/05/5dced2a0-0fd6-11e2-acc1-e927767f41cd_story.html

Filed under: Bits and Pieces | 5 Comments »

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