Morning Report: Wholesale inflation comes in hot

Vital Statistics:

Stocks are higher this morning on no real news. Bonds and MBS are down.

Retail sales rose 0.6% in February, which was a touch below expectations. On a year-over-year basis retail sales were up 1.5%. These numbers are not adjusted for inflation, so it is an indication that spending is on the weaker side. January’s numbers were revised downward, which is typical these days.

Inflation at the wholesale level increased 0.6% in February, which was an acceleration from January and December. About 70% of the increase was due to energy prices, particularly gasoline. Excluding food and energy, wholesale prices rose 0.3%.

Initial Jobless Claims fell to 209,000 last week.

Biden is proposing a $10,000 tax credit for first-time homebuyers and people who sell their starter home. The admin is also directing FHFA to waive title insurance fees and telling CFPB to go after fees at closing. Ultimately the problem is supply and interest rates, so the going after closing costs and goosing demand probably isn’t going to do much.

Since the inflation numbers aren’t going to allow the Fed to cut as much as necessary to lower mortgage rates, one way to attack the problem is to target MBS spreads. FHFA can tell Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac buy MBS again which was part of their job prior to the financial crisis.

Homebuilder Lennar reported first quarter earnings yesterday. Revenues rose 13%, which was driven by a 23% increase in units and a 8% decline in average selling prices. Gross margins expanded to 21.8% compared to 21.3% a year ago. The increase in gross margins were driven by decreased construction costs which was offset by a decline in average selling prices and higher land costs. Lennar is holding much less land in inventory than it has in the past.

Earnings were $719 million and the company spent $506 million buying back stock.

41 Responses

  1. Biden is also proposing to dismantle part of the Interstate highway system in the name of correcting past racial injustice:

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2024/03/13/biden-economy-milwaukee/

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  2. lol!

    That’s why there’s no hope left. Keep what you can secure, move to a deep red state and pray.

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  3. Rest assured however, that the climate change data is Rock.Fucking.Solid!

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  4. I know when I got married I suddenly desired to own slaves.

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  5. This has been true since the early ‘90’s at least when I worked in the meat and poultry industry.

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  6. Eyes on the goddamn prize!

    What’s wild is that incumbents don’t (usually) lose, so….

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  7. Hot chicks who won’t let me watch them pee in the ladies toilet are racists, straight up.

    A perfect win/win!

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  8. I think this is a thoughtful thread.

    It does reach a conclusion I agree with already, so…

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  9. Anyone else notice that Substack ceased rendering correctly in Firefox?

    Like

  10. Hitler could riff jokes for an hour.

    It’s how he warmed up the crowd for Triumph of the Will.

    Literally had them rolling in the aisles!

    and the Beer Hall Putsch? Think Bill Burr’s “Philly Rant”. He was heckled for the last 1/3rd of his set, hence the failure.

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    • Apparently he was found guilty of misdemeanor trespassing. If that is cause for disqualification under the “insurrection” clause, then every Republican controlled state should be searching the history of all elected Democrats for instances of having been arrested at a protest, and disqualifying them immediately.

      edit: Looks R’s did a similar thing years ago. Not under the insurrection clause, but under state law, in Arkansas.

      https://www.jurist.org/news/2020/11/arkansas-supreme-court-invalidates-election-victory-over-misdemeanor-conviction/

      The Arkansas Supreme Court on Tuesday invalidated the state legislature election victory of Democrat Jimmie Wilson over a previous federal misdemeanor conviction. The invalidation deemed Republican David Tollett the default victor of the November 3 Arkansas State House District 12 election.

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      • Some people still do not understand we are past the Rubicon. There is no going back, it’s surrender or victory. Elected Republicans hoping for a return to normal are as bad as elected Democrats, but even more dishonest.

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      • It will be interesting if some states revise their oaths of office for state offices to remove any mention of upholding the US Constitution in response to this.

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    • The government will make a living hell out of any bank that loans him the money.

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      • Exactly. Their behavior will attract those that think they can game the left and repel those that think they cannot. Does that help or hurt NYC consumers?

        But Trump needs to reconcile the fact that the city is going to seize his properties, liquidate them at fire sale prices then seize more. I suspect most of his real estate in NY will be gone forever. I see no court reversing this.

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  11. maybe I’m being obtuse but Lemon’s argument, that mistakes are happening now, would indicate a need for higher standards.

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  12. I assume he can now be targeted with a defamation law suit, even in the absence of being convicted or even charged with a crime.

    Mayor Adams Denies Sexually Assaulting a Colleague in 1993

    Mayor Eric Adams said he did not recall meeting the woman who accused him of assault: “This did not happen.”

    By Emma G. Fitzsimmons and Dana Rubinstein
    March 19, 2024

    Mayor Eric Adams strenuously denied sexually assaulting a colleague in 1993 after asking her for a sexual favor, saying on Tuesday that the accusation made by a former colleague was completely false.

    “This did not happen — it did not happen,” Mr. Adams said in his first remarks since the detailed allegations emerged in a legal claim filed on Monday. “I don’t recall ever meeting this person during my time in the Police Department.”

    The lawsuit was filed in New York Supreme Court as part of the state’s Adult Survivors Act, which provided a window for people to bring lawsuits over sexual assaults that might have occurred years ago.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/19/nyregion/eric-adams-lawsuit-sexual-assault.html

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  13. Anyone here have any experience selecting a 401k plan for a business? Any recommendations?

    Total assets around $2 m

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  14. Im laughing at the thought of Mnuchin as MAGA.

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    • The useful thing about his comment is that it shows that Chinese ownership has nothing to do with why they are going after Tik Tok.

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  15. If Trump can’t capitalize on this then he deserves to lose:

    “Biden Administration Announces Rules Aimed at Phasing Out Gas Cars

    The regulations would require automakers to produce more electric vehicles and hybrids by gradually tightening limits on tailpipe pollution.”

    https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/20/climate/biden-phase-out-gas-cars.html

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  16. For you George:

    “Yes, Sydney Sweeney’s Boobs Are Anti-Woke

    Leftists are now trying to pretend they never had a problem with women’s bodies

    Richard Hanania

    Mar 19, 2024″

    https://www.richardhanania.com/p/yes-sydney-sweeneys-boobs-are-anti

    Like

  17. No link is present.

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  18. And another cave on the budget process:

    https://punchbowl.news/archive/32124-punchbowl-news-am/

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Be kind, show respect, and all will be right with the world.