Morning Report: Big miss in payroll data

Vital Statistics:

  Last Change
S&P futures 4,403 -11.2
Oil (WTI) 69.24 -1.25
10 year government bond yield   1.14%
30 year fixed rate mortgage   2.96%

Stocks are lower this morning on COVID fears. Bonds and MBS are up small.


The 10-year continues to drop in yield, however this is a global phenomenon. The German Bund is back below negative 50 basis points, and the Japanese Government Bond is back at 0%.

I know that with the current central bank intervention in the bond markets that interest rates don’t have the signal to noise ratio they usually have, but it certainly doesn’t appear that the US economy is set for a huge upswing in the second half of the year.


The economy added 330,000 jobs in July, according to the ADP Employment Report. The Street was looking for 700k jobs, so this is a sizeable miss. The gains were primarily in leisure / hospitality and education / health. The June number was revised downward as well.

“The labor market recovery continues to exhibit uneven progress, but progress nonetheless. July payroll data reports a marked slowdown from the second quarter pace in jobs growth,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP. “For the fifth straight month the leisure and hospitality sector is the fastest growing industry, though gains have softened. The slowdown in the recovery has also impacted companies of all sizes. Bottlenecks in hiring continue to hold back stronger gains, particularly in light of new COVID-19 concerns tied to viral variants. These barriers should ebb in coming months, with stronger monthly gains ahead as a result.”

The Street is looking for 900,000 payrolls in Friday’s jobs report so there seems to be a sizeable disconnect between expectations and reality here.


Mortgage applications fell 1.7% last week as purchases and refis fell by basically the same amount. This is despite a 4 basis point drop in the mortgage rate. “Interest rates drifted lower globally last week, as markets assessed the latest concerns regarding the delta variant. 30-year mortgage rates dropped below 3 percent in our survey for the first time since this February, presenting an opportunity for many homeowners who have not yet refinanced to lower their rate and their payments. Refinance application volume slightly decreased, following an 11 percent jump last week,” said MBA Senior Vice President and Chief Economist Mike Fratantoni.


So far, it doesn’t appear that the adverse market fee is having much of an impact on refi volume, does it?


Figure, a blockchain fintech is merging with Homebridge. Figure is led by Mike Cagney, who founded SoFi. “Probably the most significant issue was we had this grand thesis that we could save 90 basis points of expense to originate securitized loans on a blockchain” Cagney told HousingWire in an interview in May.


Fannie Mae just reported earnings. Here are the prepared remarks. Fannie sees purchase volume reaching $1.8 trillion this year, and they expect refi volume to decrease as interest rates rise. They also see a 14.8% rise in house prices this year.

14 Responses

    • Hopefully Kavanaugh will learn a lesson about the government acting in bad faith from this.


      • When the R’s retake congress in 2022, they should immediately impeach Biden for his admitted and intentional disregard for upholding the Constituon.


        • The smart play is to impeach him, then hold hearings on reasons to impeach then send it to the Senate. Rinse, lather, repeat. To not do this is to unilaterally surrender


        • Yes, and the head of the CDC too. Presumably issuing an order that you know to be illegal is a violation of the oath of office.

          I’d also say this would be a pretty clear case for a nationwide injunction of the order by the first federal judge to hear a challenge against it, and not stay the order pending appeal.


      • here’s the CDC order

        Click to access 2021-16945.pdf


      • If Kavanaugh’s confirmation spectacle hasn’t taught him the left is incapable of acting in good faith, then I don’t know what will.

        Maybe all of the so-called R justices are simply playing bad cop to the left’s good cop, and they all are in on it.

        Maybe the judicial system is thoroughly co-opted by the left and we just have to accept the Constitution is doomed.


    • Like

  1. Nice summation of Biden’s performance so far from of all places the NYT:

    “The rate of inflation has been rising at its fastest pace in over a decade — to 5.4 percent in June, from 1.4 percent in January when Biden took office, with no end in sight. The number of homicides grew by 25 percent from 2019 to 2020, and the 2021 rate, 6.2 homicides per 100,000 residents, is on track to become, according to The Washington Post, “the highest recorded in the United States in more than 20 years.”

    The number of illegal border crossings has more than doubled during Biden’s seven months in office, raising the potential for immigration to become a central campaign issue once again, both next year and in 2024.

    U.S. Customs and Border Protection reported that in June of this year the enforcement agency “encountered 188,829 persons attempting entry along the Southwest Border,” a 142 percent increase from the 78,000 in January 2021 when Biden assumed the presidency.”


  2. Because of course requiring student loan payments helps to spread Covid.

    “With eviction victory in hand, congressional Democrats turn attention to student loans

    Temporary freeze on federal student loan payments expires at the end of September, and many Democrats want it extended”


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