All Things in Moderation

Vital Statistics:

	Last	Change
S&P futures	4,475	9.2
Oil (WTI)	68.79	1.35
10 year government bond yield		1.35%
30 year fixed rate mortgage		3.07%

Stocks are flattish as we await Jerome Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole. Bonds and MBS are up small.

 

Personal Incomes rose 1.1% in July, which was well above the 0.3% consensus. Personal consumption expenditures rose 0.3%, in line with the Street. The headline inflation reading (Personal Consumption Expenditure Index) rose 0.4% MOM and 4.2% YOY. The core PCE price index increased 0.3% MOM and 3.6% YOY.

The PCE Price index is the Fed’s preferred inflation indicator, and we are seeing more and more Fed Presidents advocate for a reduction in asset purchases.

 

The Supreme Court again upheld the concept of property rights and re-blocked the CDC’s eviction moratorium. “The equities do not justify depriving the applicants of the District Court’s judgment in their favor,” the justices wrote in an unsigned order. “The moratorium has put the applicants, along with millions of landlords across the country, at risk of irreparable harm by depriving them of rent payments with no guarantee of eventual recovery.”

The Biden Administration responded: “The Biden Administration is disappointed that the Supreme Court has blocked the most recent CDC eviction moratorium while confirmed cases of the Delta variant are significant across the country,” White House press secretary Jen Psaki said in a statement. “As a result of this ruling, families will face the painful impact of evictions, and communities across the country will face greater risk of exposure to COVID-19.”  

Supposedly this kicks the issue to Congress now, unless we are about to see an eviction moratorium issued by the Navy.

 

Refinance activity is declining, but it might not be for the reason people think. According to a Bankrate survey, almost 40% of borrowers don’t even know what rate they are paying and how much they can save. According to Black Knight, about 15 million borrowers can save by refinancing, and the number is really more if you delve into their numbers. Bottom line: Interest rates aren’t the issue; education is.

 

 

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