All Things in Moderation

Vital Statistics:

	Last	Change
S&P futures	4,407	18.2
Oil (WTI)	73.24	-0.15
10 year government bond yield		1.21%
30 year fixed rate mortgage		2.98%

Stocks are higher this morning on no real news. Bonds and MBS are up.

 

The big event this week will be the jobs report on Friday. The Street is looking for 900k payrolls to be added, which seems pretty high compared to recent history.

 

Construction spending rose 0.1% in June, according to Census. It is up 8.2% YOY. Residential construction rose 1.1% and is up 29% YOY. I would bet most of that increase is due to higher lumber prices.

 

Manufacturing decelerated in July, according to the ISM Manufacturing Report. “Business Survey Committee panelists reported that their companies and suppliers continue to struggle to meet increasing demand levels. As we enter the third quarter, all segments of the manufacturing economy are impacted by near record-long raw-material lead times, continued shortages of critical basic materials, rising commodities prices and difficulties in transporting products. Worker absenteeism, short-term shutdowns due to parts shortages and difficulties in filling open positions continue to be issues limiting manufacturing-growth potential.”

 

The eviction moratorium that was imposed by the CDC expired over the weekend, but FHFA and FHA extended their own eviction moratoriums until September 30. This affects single family rentals backed by FHA and Fannie / Freddie loans. “The pandemic continues to have an outsized impact on the ability of Americans to meet their monthly rent or mortgage payments. Today’s extension of the eviction moratorium protects particularly vulnerable Americans who otherwise would be at risk of losing a place to live,” said Acting Director Sandra L. Thompson. 

Just to put this eviction moratorium into perspective. We are pushing two years now, unemployment is under 6% and there are record job openings. It sure would be nice to get some sort of indication from DC what set of circumstances would warrant a restoration of property rights.

 

St. Louis Fed President James Bullard thinks the Fed should begin tapering MBS and Treasury purchases in September and wrap up the process by March. “We should go ahead and get the taper going, get it behind us, so we would have some optionality to handle the possibility — maybe not even the likelihood — the possibility that inflation is more persistent and higher than we’d like,” Bullard said.

 

 

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