Morning Report: Home prices continue to rise

Vital Statistics:

  Last Change
S&P futures 3659 32.6
Oil (WTI) 45.07 -0.31
10 year government bond yield   0.89%
30 year fixed rate mortgage   2.78%

Stocks are higher on positive vaccine news. Bonds and MBS are down.

Home prices rose 1.1% MOM and 7.3% YOY in October, according to CoreLogic. Detached home prices rose 7.9% while attached rose only 4.5%. This is almost certainly due to COVID and buyer preference for isolation from neighbors. Phoenix experienced the biggest gains, rising 12%, while the New York City area MSA only grew by 2%.

Jerome Powell will head to the Hill today for testimony. Here are his prepared remarks. He mainly discussed the various lending programs for small businesses and municipalities. He didn’t really talk about MBS purchases.

A bipartisan group of lawmakers are preparing a $908 billion stimulus plan. It will provide an additional $300 a week in unemployment benefits, which is lower than the $600 a week Democrats want. It will provide $240 billion in aid to state and local governments, which Republicans oppose, and another 6 month moratorium on COVID-related lawsuits which Democrats oppose. We will see if this plan has any White House support.

New home inventory is at a 3 year low. A picture is worth a thousand words:

This image has an empty alt attribute; its file name is home-supply-verses-sales.jpg

Construction spending rose 1.3% MOM and 3.7% YOY, according to the Census Bureau. Residential construction spending rose 2.9% MOM and 14.6% YOY.

27 Responses

  1. “We will see if this plan has any White House support.”

    Trump, or Biden? Is the bipartisan support from the self styled “problem solvers” bipartisan group? I think House support is the more critical factor, in any case. Pelosi torpedoed $2B, didn’t she?

    Frankly, I suspect JB would go along with almost any bipartisan measure, this one if there is a R Senate. It fits his style. Like Reagan, he would always go for half a loaf now and come back for more later. If he gets a D Senate it will all be based on what WVa can get out of it. Murkowski could hold up a small R majority for AK and Manchin could kill a pseudo D majority for WVa. Amazing that not more Senators play hardball for their states nowadays.


    • I think either Trump or Biden will sign anything that actually passes both houses rather than veto it at this point.

      “Pelosi torpedoed $2B, didn’t she?” That was before the election. And then she found out that Republicans and Trump didn’t care.

      Another CR is due this month too to avoid a shutdown.


    • Mark:

      Amazing that not more Senators play hardball for their states nowadays.

      Blame the 17th amendment.


      • That and campaign finance reform. They are much more vulnerable to being primaried by a challenger backed by ideological outside groups.


        • jnc:

          They are much more vulnerable to being primaried by a challenger backed by ideological outside groups.

          Spot on.


  2. Taibbi’s latest on the history of Neera Tanden, the Clintons and Sanders is pretty funny.


  3. I’m shocked that this would be the impact:

    The picture is perfect. Who wouldn’t trust Trump over Rasputin?

    Liked by 1 person

    • If I was Trump, I would be in the process of creating Trump TV, and buying bitchute and parler. There is such an opportunity for an uncensored ecosystem.

      Liked by 1 person

  4. Very interesting statistical analysis of vote-count updates across the nation. Apparently Biden’s margin of victory in each of Wisconsin, Michigan and Georgia was provided by a single vote update in each state, all of which display an extreme statistical anomaly.

    With this report, we rely only on publicly available data from the New York Times to identify and analyze statistical anomalies in key states. Looking at 8,954 individual vote updates (differences in vote totals for each candidate between successive changes to the running vote totals, colloquially also referred to as “dumps” or “batches”), we discover a remarkably consistent mathematical property: there is a clear inverse relationship between difference in candidates’ vote counts and and the ratio of the vote counts. (In other words, it’s not surprising to see vote updates with large margins, and it’s not surprising to see vote updates with very large ratios of support between the candidates, but it is surprising to see vote updates which are both).

    The significance of this property will be further explained in later sections of this report. Nearly every vote update, across states of all sizes and political leanings follow this statistical pattern. A very small number, however, are especially aberrant. Of the seven vote updates which follow the pattern the least, four individual vote updates — two in Michigan, one in Wisconsin, and one in Georgia — were particularly anomalous and influential with respect to this property and all occurred within the same five hour window.


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