Morning Report: Zillow forecasts that 2021 could be the best year for housing since 1983

Vital Statistics:

 

  Last Change
S&P futures 3690 5.3
Oil (WTI) 47.21 -0.74
10 year government bond yield   0.93%
30 year fixed rate mortgage   2.78%

Stocks are flattish this morning on no real news. Bonds and MBS are flat.

 

The House and Senate passed a stimulus bill and a funding bill. It allows for $600 checks to be sent to most Americans.

 

The third revision to Q3 GDP came in at 33.4%. Personal consumption expenditures rose 41%. These were both upside revisions.

 

Corporate profits rose 10.3% in the third quarter, which was a downward revision.

 

The number of mortgages in forbearance was unchanged at 5.49% last week, according to the MBA. “The share of loans in forbearance has stayed fairly level since early November, often with small decreases in the GSE loan share and increases for Ginnie Mae loans,” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA Senior Vice President and Chief Economist. “That was the case last week. Additionally, forbearance requests from Ginnie Mae borrowers reached the highest level since the week ending June 14. Additional restrictions on businesses and rising COVID-19 cases are causing a renewed increase in layoffs and other signs of slowing economic activity. These troubling trends will likely result in more homeowners seeking relief.”

 

The spring selling season should be the biggest in 40 years, according to Zillow estimates. They expect that there will be a rush for buyers to get into the market before rates rise in the second half of 2021. I suspect that there is a lot of pent-up demand and supply from last spring, where sellers pulled homes off the market because they were worried about strangers entering their homes. Zillow is looking for home sales to hit 6.9 million units, the highest number since 1983.

 

Existing home sales fell 2.5% MOM to an annualized rate of 6.69 million units. This is still up 26% compared to a year ago. The median home price rose 15% to $310,600. Total for-sale inventory fell to 2.3 months worth, a record low. Homes were on the market for 21 days on average. First time homebuyers accounted for 32% of all sales. Historically that number has been closer to 40%. While low mortgage rates are helping improve affordability, rapid price increases are having the opposite effect.

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