Morning Report: Black Knight forecasts origination of $4 trillion this year

Vital Statistics:

  Last Change
S&P futures 3296 32.6
Oil (WTI) 35.15 -0.49
10 year government bond yield   0.84%
30 year fixed rate mortgage   2.87%

Stocks are higher this morning as we head into an important week for the markets. Bonds and MBS are down.

Aside from the election this week, we also have a FOMC meeting. Plus, we have a slew of important economic data including the jobs report on Friday. Lots going on.

An election surprise could prove to cause some increase in market volatility. I remember in 2016 after Trump won, the S&P futures were down 100 points in the overnight Asian markets. Paul Krugman was penning his New York Times essay predicting Great Depression II, while famed investor Carl Icahn was buying every contract he could get his hands on in the overnight session. The stock market closed up about 1% on the day after the election. People forget the bond market also had a pretty substantial move. The 10 year yield increased 39 basis points in the immediate aftermath of the election.

This image has an empty alt attribute; its file name is treasuries.jpg

The polls all show a Biden victory, but pollsters are increasingly in the opinion moving business, not the opinion measuring business. So a lot of the margin is nothing more than wishful thinking. I am wondering if the move up in yields lately is the bond market hedging its bets.

The manufacturing sector is still expanding, despite COVID-19. The ISM Survey for October came in at 53.4, which was higher than expected.

Redfin is getting sued by a bunch of housing organizations over its minimum listing price. The lawsuit claims that this amounts to discrimination since many urban neighborhoods especially in the cities they cited (Detroit, St. Louis) are low-priced. Redfin says it is a business decision, but the activists believe it has no legitimate business purpose. The problem is that many properties in these areas are extremely low priced (around $10,000 – $20,000) due to property tax arrears that have piled up for years. A real estate broker simply isn’t going to get excited about putting in the work for a $300 check. Redfin will pay a minimum commission for brokers, but someone has to eat the difference.

Ever notice the MBA’s origination forecasts seem to be low and raised only grudgingly? The latest MBA forecast for 2020 origination (which was only recently raised) came in at around $3.2 trillion. According to Black Knight Financial’s rate lock data, 2020 originations could come in over $4 trillion.

38 Responses

  1. Leaving aside all of the questionable. over the top, and just plain wrong arguments in this piece, it’s worth reading as a critique of the Democrats identity politics strategy on it’s own terms.

    https://www.politicalorphans.com/becoming-white-the-weakness-in-democrats-people-of-color-coalition/

    What’s left unstated is a lot of what Ladd characterizes as “becoming white” used just to be called melting pot assimilation. But apparently that’s considered racist now.

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  2. This may be what finally gets Matt Taibbi excommunicated from Rolling Stone:

    “The Worst Choice Ever

    Donald Trump is a disaster, but Joe Biden’s party is democratic in name only. Why this year’s election is a vomit milkshake
    Matt Taibbi

    My colleagues at Rolling Stone recently endorsed Joe Biden for president:

    Biden’s lived experience and expansive empathy make him not just a good, but an outstanding candidate… This is a fight between light and darkness…

    Joe Biden is a corpse with hair plugs whose idea of “empathy” is to jam fingers in the sternums of people who ask the wrong questions, or call them “fat” or “full of shit,” or dare them to “try me” — and that’s if he remembers what state he’s in. Is he a better human than Donald Trump? Probably, but his mental decline has hit Lloyd Bridges-in-Hot-Shots! levels and he shares troubling characteristics with the president, beginning with a pathological struggle with truth.

    Biden spent much of 2020 lying about everything from his Iraq War vote to his educational history to a fantasy about being arrested in South Africa with Nelson Mandela. The same press that killed him for this behavior in the past let it all slide this time. Same with the growing ledger of handsy-uncle incidents that had adolescent girls and campaigning politicians alike wondering why a Vice President needs to smell their hair or plant lingering kisses on their heads while cameras flash.”

    https://taibbi.substack.com/p/the-worst-choice-ever

    And this especially:

    “Donald Trump is going to be a difficult case for future historians because he’s simultaneously the biggest liar and the most lied-about politician in American history.”

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    • jnc:

      And this especially:

      That is a good line. Although if Trump is indeed the biggest liar, it is at least a close call.

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    • It seems to me that most liberals and dems (even Independents possibly), while pushing Biden and ignoring his faults (and there are many), are simply more concerned with removing Trump from office and are essentially either unenthusiastic or lukewarm about Biden.

      I think the primary motivation for enthusiasm in voting is the desire to find someone more trusted to handle the pandemic, health care, racial issues and world opinion. Whether Biden is capable of that is still a big question mark but I doubt he’ll be worse than Trump.

      I think it’s a backlash election! And if the polls can be trusted at all (doubtful IMO) there appears to be a down ticket reaction as well.

      I admit to being very nervous and stressed out on many levels, as are most of my family and friends, on both ends of the spectrum.

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      • Just curious what you mean by “world opinion”? No wrong answer, it’s an interesting concern.

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        • I take it as meaning international relations.

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        • I guess I was more interested in what concerns LMS has about the management of international relations she has with the current administration.

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        • Is that why shops in overwhelmingly Democratic voting cities are boarding up, right wing militias?

          Does she really believe that?

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        • Mc Wing, Not sure this will satisfy your curiosity about my opinion but I think it speaks for itself.

          https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2020/09/15/us-image-plummets-internationally-as-most-say-country-has-handled-coronavirus-badly/

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        • Sorry, I should have been clearer. Why does it matter to you, US image abroad?

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        • I am always bemused by people who express concern about what the rest of the world thinks of the US. I want to ask them…have you seen the rest of the world? There’s a reason that the US has more than 4 times the number of immigrants than any other country in the world.

          Besides which, these types of polls are not actually about the image of the United States. They are just expressions of how much certain foreigners, usually Europeans, like the current US president. And frankly I don’t know why anyone would want to celebrate a political leader who was more highly thought of by foreigners than by his own countrymen. It seems to me that is an indication of a leader who is confused about whose interests he is supposed to be representing.

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        • Hammer and sickle?

          Harris County Democratic Party’s headquarters vandalized

          [12:54 p.m.] The headquarters of the Harris County Democratic Party was vandalized on Monday, the party said in a news release.

          “Election No, Revolution Yes,” was spray-painted onto the party’s office windows along with a sickle and hammer, a symbol first used during the communist Russian Revolution. The building’s locks were also filled with super glue, according to the release, preventing officials from entering the office.

          “This is what happens when Republicans are losing,” said Lillie Schechter, Harris County Democratic Party Chair, in a statement. “They use scare tactics and intimidation to scare voters.”

          Identical messages were reported overnight in Pennsylvania. Democratic U.S. Rep. Mike Doyle’s office and Republican congressional candidate Sean Parnell’s house were both vandalized, according to Twitter posts and a report by CBS Pittsburgh. — Shawn Mulcahy Texas Tribune

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        • They are just expressions of how much certain foreigners, usually Europeans, like the current US president.

          Exactly. The esteem that European leftists hold of US presidents is a univariate model based on the party of that US president.

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      • I don’t necessarily disagree with that, but I do think this is characteristic of how the MSM has been touting Biden:

        “Biden’s lived experience and expansive empathy make him not just a good, but an outstanding candidate… This is a fight between light and darkness… ”

        As Taibbi notes, they have really squandered their credibility over the last four years.

        There was plenty of material to work with on Trump without having to make things up or declare Biden the second coming of Jesus Christ.

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        • LOL, I guess it’s a fight between a self-described Super Man and Jesus then.

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        • In honor of Sean Connery and Highlander:

          “There can be only one”

          Did you ever see the South Park short where it was Jesus vs Santa Claus?

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      • I generally agree with you. I wanted both a younger and more conservative D nominee, but my Never Trump vote could only have been zeroed by a Bernie-Warren winger. In which case I would have planned my 4 year vacation in Canada or San Miguel deAllende, which Scott teased me about. Fortunately we are in a position to plan such a vacation – absent COVID travel restrictions, of course.

        Loss of NATO alliance trust is what I think of as the primary “world opinion” issue.

        Essentially, my Never Trump view hardened over character issues.

        That did not make me enthusiastic for JB. However, JB does appear to me to have all his faculties and the senility attacks seem gratuitous. He is appropriately responsive to questioning. What is true for a lifelong stutterer is that he must pause more while fighting for a word than he did in 2008.

        He still has the same weaknesses he always did. And for me, the same strength – he is not an ideologue. He went out of his way to make friends across the aisle and if he wins, libs will hate him when he continues to do so. And when he names a moderate R or two to his Cabinet.

        Unlike Brent, who has written that he thinks COVID will be a smaller issue if JB wins, I think it will become consuming for two years. There will be resistance to masking and distancing and tracing, as well. There will be resistance to taking vaccines, and children will not be vaccinated. And there is as yet no assurance of an effective vaccine or vaccines, but I am guessing some combo of what is in final phase testing will prove effective next year.

        When I hear the proponents of herd immunity without a vaccine I am struck by the wishful thinking. Without vaccines, herd immunity to polio, influenza, smallpox, and TB would never have developed. Some of those diseases are bacterial, but some are viral. Why assume a new to humans virus would spread once and be done? Makes no sense to me.

        I have said this election will be close and I am sticking with that.

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        • Loss of NATO alliance trust is what I think of as the primary “world opinion” issue.

          Ok, thank you. Does the fact that NATO members have increased their contributions indicate more or less alliance trust? Also, would you support the addition of Ukraine to NATO?

          For the record, I’d just as soon dissolve it altogether.

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        • For the record, I’d just as soon dissolve it altogether.

          I don’t get it. What is the advantage of not having a mutually supportive alliance with western Europe and Canada?

          I am agnostic on all of eastern Europe actually being in NATO. I just have not studied that enough. I know the surface arguments for and against.

          Click to access 20191129_pr-2019-123-en.pdf

          I assume that increased contributions are a good thing, but not an indication of more or less “trust”. I think the US draw down in Germany was a cause of distrust.

          On a completely different note, why was pulling out of the Trans Pacific pact a good idea? Seems like we left the field open to Chinese mercantilism, with no agreement on patent rights. What did I miss there?

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        • I don’t get it. What is the advantage of not having a mutually supportive alliance with western Europe and Canada?

          It’s obvious, based on the incredibly anemic European defense spending along with Germany building a Russian gas pipeline that the Europeans don’t feel the need and are unwilling to do what it takes to defend themselves. They do not see a threat. That’s good enough for me, why not you?

          As for TPP? I think Trump’s ultimate goal is to get out of any trade deals altogether. The ones that haven’t been enacted are easier to bury than existing treaties.

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        • What if Trump is firmly counter culture?

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        • I think the election will be close as well Mark. It’s one of the things that keeps me up at night.

          I also agree that COVID will be a major problem in this country until a viable vaccine is distributed broadly. Biden and staff will have their hands full dealing with the resistance to best medical practices (as described by a majority of public health professionals) on the part of the public and now dis-trust of the vaccine process. We’re in for another long year I think.

          Luckily there does seem to be progress on therapeutics and doctors have learned a great deal about treating patients so the curve of death vs infection is trending downward. Still too many deaths ahead of us though and lots of weird continuing health issues for a percentage of folks who survive but are still suffering from the effects of the illness.

          I’m more than anxious to get out of Covid prison but know that I have to wait for too long still.

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        • Mark:

          What is true for a lifelong stutterer…

          ….is that he generally doesn’t spend over 40 years in the public eye without ever actually stuttering.

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  3. I don’t subscribe to the WaPo any longer, haven’t in years but apparently these are quotes from a recent piece.

    A longtime Republican attorney who worked for multiple presidential campaigns is calling out both President Donald Trump and members of his own party for their attacks on the election process and ballot counting.

    “This is as un-American as it gets,” Benjamin L. Ginsberg, who worked for former President George W. Bush during the 2000 Florida recount and again in 2004, wrote in the Washington Post.

    Trump has repeatedly and without evidence claimed of a “rigged” election, attacked voting by mail, and on Sunday said he’s going to sic his attorneys on the various states after the polls close Tuesday to stop the counting.

    But Ginsberg said past Republican claims of voter fraud have turned up only isolated cases.

    “Proof of systematic fraud has become the Loch Ness Monster of the Republican Party,” he wrote. “People have spent a lot of time looking for it, but it doesn’t exist.”

    Ginsberg, who was a co-chair of the bipartisan 2013 Presidential Commission on Election Administration, warned his party’s voter suppression efforts will turn it into a “permanent minority” in the face of changing demographics.

    “These are painful words for me to write,” he said.

    “My party is destroying itself on the Altar of Trump,” he wrote. “Republican elected officials, party leaders and voters must recognize how harmful this is to the party’s long-term prospects.”

    He concluded with a call for members of his party to reject Trump on Tuesday:

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    • only isolated cases.

      well that changes everything.

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      • Haven’t there always been isolated cases? That’s my understanding but correct me if I’m wrong. I don’t think most Secretaries of State, blue or red states, believe in the kind of wholesale voter fraud that Trump consistently warns about in an effort to de-legitimize the vote of the people. It’s always been a fantasy of the right IMO.

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        • I think in cities it is commonplace. I lived in NYC long enough and saw it in action.

          And with the left thinking they are defending the word against Literally. Hitler. I don’t put anything past them.

          I think the voter fraud in Philly, Detroit, and Milwaukee will be astounding.

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        • Brent:

          And with the left thinking they are defending the word against Literally. Hitler. I don’t put anything past them.

          This is exactly the right point. If Trump is the evil threat to the US that the left and NeverTrumpers proclaim him to be, why wouldn’t they do everything in their power, fair or foul, to make sure he is stopped?

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    • What’s funny is that Trump’s support of the very demographics that Ginsberg’s concerned about is the highest in decades. He’s actually broadened the party’s appeal more so than any other modern Republican President or nominee. So why’s he still bitching?

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      • Hell, the polls all show a significant decline in whitey support and an increase in African American and Latino support. So I ask again, why is this bad? I thought to much whitey support was bad?

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      • Are you sure about that McWing?

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        • Am I sure about what the polls indicate? Well, using 2016 exit polls as a guide to minority voting, yes.

          The question is do you believe the polling on voting demographics? If not, what makes you think they’re incorrect? Finally, what will it tell you about things if the polling of Trump’s minority voters turns out to be correct?

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    • “where she was an associate editor, after plagiarism and inaccurate reporting were discovered in her work.”

      ha. you hired a liar and are sad that she’s a liar.

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      • which is strange since woke bubbleheads are a dime a dozen. it isn’t like she was a special liar or anything.

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      • It’s also strange how this sort of plagiarism often seems to crop up in “impact” journalism where you start with your framing of the piece and then work backwards from there.

        Ala “Jackie” In Rolling Stone.

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  4. Aaaannnd….they’re off!

    Like

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