Morning Report: Initial Jobless Claims fall

Vital Statistics:

 

  Last Change
S&P futures 3555 -20.6
Oil (WTI) 41.83 0.41
10 year government bond yield   0.92%
30 year fixed rate mortgage   2.9%

Stocks are lower as COVID cases increase. Bonds and MBS are up

 

Initial Jobless Claims came in at 709,000 last week. While the trend is still going in the right direction, they are still at the highest levels ever recorded. Take a look at the chart below. The yellow highlighted area was the Great Recession

 

Inflation remains under control, at least according to the government statistics. The Consumer Price index was flat month-over-month in October and was up 1.2% on a year-over year basis. Ex-food and energy, prices were flat, and rose 1.6% YOY.

 

Jerome Powell will be speaking this afternoon. Probably won’t be market-moving, but nothing can be ruled out these days. The bond market has been volatile lately as positive vaccine news and negative COVID news battle it out.

 

Manhattan real estate prices and asking rent are falling, which could signal that it is turning the corner. Median effective rent fell 19% YOY to $2868, and leases are up 33%. FWIW, $2,868 sounds low to me. The young are supposedly moving back to Manhattan, but with the bars and restaurants shut, what is there to do?

 

2020 has been the year of the mortgage IPO. Loan Depot is the next to go public.

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