Morning Report: Personal Incomes rise

Vital Statistics:


  Last Change
S&P futures 3291 -10.6
Oil (WTI) 35.75 -0.49
10 year government bond yield   0.84%
30 year fixed rate mortgage   2.87%

Stocks are lower this morning as big tech earnings report fail to excite investors. Bonds and MBS are down.


Pending home sales declined 2.2% according to NAR. Despite the decline, it is still the second highest reading on record.

“The demand for home buying remains super strong, even with a slight monthly pullback in September, and we’re still likely to end the year with more homes sold overall in 2020 than in 2019,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist. “With persistent low mortgage rates and some degree of a continuing jobs recovery, more contract signings are expected in the near future.”

“Additionally, a second-order demand will steadily arise as homeowners who had not considered moving before the pandemic begin to enter the market,” Yun said. “A number of these owners are contemplating moving into larger homes in less densely populated areas in light of new-found work-from-home flexibility.”


Personal incomes rose 0.9% in September, much higher than the consensus estimate of 0.3%. Personal spending rose 1.4%, higher than the 1% estimate, which is good news for the economy. Inflation (at least as the Fed measures it) remains well under control with the personal consumption expenditures index only up 1.4% on an annual basis.


It sounds like the flight out of urban areas is beginning to be felt for landlords. Apartment REIT Equity Residential reported a big decline in earnings, driven by concessions and turnover in its NYC, SF and Boston markets. Suburban apartments are holding up reasonably well however.

16 Responses

  1. This makes for a pretty good ad.


  2. Apparently this is a way around paywalls. My private browser trick wouldn’t let me get to the Stephen King Trump editorial on WaPo, but this does:

    And the link to the editorial, for anyone interested. I like King but the argument is weak.


  3. Twitter down 21% on lousy sub growth.


  4. New quotation added.


  5. Twitter blinks:


  6. Judge Sullivan needs to disqualify himself:

    The other reason Sullivan must recuse himself is that he has displayed an apparent desire to see that Flynn will still be punished even if the case must now be dismissed. This, too, is inappropriate and demonstrates that Sullivan is not acting impartially.

    When Sullivan appointed an amicus to advise him about whether to grant the DOJ’s motion to dismiss, he also directed the amicus to give advice as to whether he should issue a show-cause order to hold Flynn in criminal contempt for perjury because Flynn had disavowed his guilty plea.

    This second request was extraordinary. First, it displayed ignorance of the law; the Supreme Court decided 100 years ago that perjury does not constitute contempt of court. Second, and significantly for disqualification purposes, trial judges never seek to punish a defendant for filing a motion to withdraw a guilty plea.

    …Sullivan again displayed an apparent desire to see Flynn punished during the Sept. 29 hearing. Although DOJ has moved to dismiss the case against Flynn “with prejudice,” meaning Flynn could not be prosecuted again, Sullivan asked whether he can instead dismiss without prejudice, noting that a new administration at DOJ might decide to pursue the case. Similarly, Sullivan inquired into whether Flynn could still be charged for violating the Foreign Agents Registration Act — to which Flynn did not plead but which was included as additional “relevant conduct” for purposes of his plea — if he dismisses the current case.

    It might be argued that Sullivan was “just asking” these questions and that posing questions does not necessarily demonstrate bias. The clear import of these lines of questions, however, was not an academic inquiry but to determine if there is still a path for punishing Flynn even if the current case has to be dismissed.

    Moreover, judges simply do not pose these questions when the government moves to dismiss a criminal case because it is none of their concern under the separation-of-powers principles. The only reasonable conclusion to draw from Sullivan’s “inquiries” is that he is far too interested in determining if there’s “some way, any way” that Flynn can still be punished for something.


  7. Good read:

    “How The Intercept Abandoned Its Truth-Seeking Mission—And Lost Its Best Journalist
    by Zaid Jilani
    Published on October 30, 2020”


  8. Must be a bunch of anti-science Trumpsters.


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