Morning Report: Trump back at the White House

Vital Statistics:

  Last Change
S&P futures 3401 6.6
Oil (WTI) 40.55 1.39
10 year government bond yield   0.77%
30 year fixed rate mortgage   2.88%

Stocks are higher as we await a speech by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. Bonds and MBS are down.

Trump is back at the White House and the Presidential COVID-19 scare appears to be over.

There were 6.5 million job openings at the end of August, according to the JOLTs report. Job openings fell 685,000 YOY, which represents the effect of COVID. The quits level was 2%.

After a COVID-related slumber, it looks like non-QM lending is coming back, at least for self-employed borrowers. “It’s not back to full volume, but it’s close,” says Mac Cregger, senior vice president and regional manager at Angel Oak, according to the report.

Mortgage delinquencies are expected to remain above pre-COVID levels through 2022, according to a recent report by Black Knight. The report compares the COVID experience to natural disasters, and looks at delinquency rates as the area rebuilds. Fears of another 2008-style delinquency spike are overblown; homeowners have $125k in tappable equity on average. “American homeowners now have the most equity available to them in history. Of those in forbearance, just 9% have less than 10% equity in their homes, which offers both borrowers and lenders multiple options in lieu of foreclosure,” said Ben Graboske, data and analytics president at Black Knight.

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