Morning Report: Delinquencies spike in April

Vital Statistics:


Last Change
S&P futures 3200 -19.1
Oil (WTI) 40.74 -0.41
10 year government bond yield 0.61%
30 year fixed rate mortgage 3.02%


Stocks are lower this morning on no real news. Bonds and MBS are up.


Initial Jobless claims came in at 1.3 million. It is surprising to see so many claims given the state of re-opening, however it seems like many small businesses are still closing down as a result of the COVID shutdown. There is talk of additional stimulus out of Washington, along with the end of the additional $600 a week for the unemployed.


Retail Sales increased 7.5% in June, well above the 5.2% forecast. The control group, which excludes gas, autos, and building products rose 5.7%. This is overall good news for the economy as consumption is the biggest driver.


Overall delinquencies rose to 6.1% in April, according to CoreLogic. The hardest hit states were the NYC area: NY, NJ, CT, as well as the deep south states of LA and MS. You can see how fast the DQ rate spiked in the chart below:

30 day DQ


Single family authorizations fell 10% in June, according to BuildFax, although activity might be stabilizing as builders learn to work within the restrictions of COVID. Certainly the demand is there, as first time homebuyers try and escape the cities. Note we will get housing starts and building permits tomorrow.



36 Responses

  1. Good morning!

    @kevinwillis1, I thought that you’d find this interesting. Like yours, a majority Black school district.


    • Interesting. Right now some of the municipalities are letter students either attend on an alternate day schedule or go virtual the first 9 weeks and then probably go to the alternating schedule, which is what my daughter wants to do.

      My understanding is that we are going to let parents choose either to go to school or learn virtually, and this decision will be fixed for the semester. Then, after the first semester, it may be revisited–either giving parents the ability to opt back in to schooling-at-school or perhaps just saying “we’re all going back now”. Numbers are still about 70% picking “schooling at home”.


  2. I guess we will have a chance to see if the 1964 Civil Rights Act is still enforceable, or if we are now embarking on a new edition of reverse Jim Crow laws in the South.


    • That’s different cause reasons. Gotta love our Calvinball judicial system

      Liked by 1 person

    • Roberts will Kennedy it.

      Liked by 1 person

    • And given what the federal government is putting out, national Jim Crow is likely well on its way, given how entrenched the critical race theorists are at every level of government:

      That’s the Smithsonian. You can just pick anything and it’s getting to where you don’t even have to reverse the races being discussed to be appalled.

      This just being one example:

      Interestingly, these helpful images have disappeared from the above page after Byron York tweeted about them.


    • This isn’t reparations.

      “The resolution on reparations does not require direct payments but will mandate investments in areas where Black residents face disparities.”

      They are just rebranding existing social spending.


      • I made that statement (here or elsewhere) but it was my immediate response: this is rebranding social spending that they’d want to do anyway, most of which is likely to go to paying vendors or contractors they have some tangential relationship with already–this is most likely a way to use their position to throw money at colleagues, friends and fellow travelers under the unimpeachable cover of fighting racism–or fighting whiteness, however it needs to be characterized to be untouchable.


      • jnc:

        They are just rebranding existing social spending.

        Perhaps, but rebranding – redefining words – is a perennial strategy of the left to accomplish its true desires. Redefining existing social spending to be more explicitly, rather than just incidentally, race based moves the Overton Window. This is what they do.


  3. Interesting article:

    I think it’s fair to say Trump wasn’t most voters’ first pick, but as the 2016 primaries went on, it became evident to a lot of us that Trump was the best option we had. Not for grand narratives and national unity, but for the disunity, chaos, confusion, and stalemate that he unfailingly brings to the enemies of small government and local institutions. I don’t trust Trump to do anything other than keep the other side busy while I continue to build, and run interference for me with the people who want to make it illegal to be a religious small-government conservative. That’s all. That’s the grand bargain that rose up to replace the Grand Narrative—not just for me, but for millions and millions of citizens. I suspect this is why the endless, scolding op-eds from Conservatism, Inc. about Trump fall mostly upon deaf ears. Trump voters don’t expect anything grand or noble from him, other than to maybe bring clarity to the situation with the media and the Left. He exposes the other side for what it is. He’s not a builder. But he is useful. Because while he distracts, the real conservative movement is happening quietly, in every town and city and state in the union. The war for self-government is being fought by an army of anonymous citizens who are slowly building back up the essential secondary institutions that centralization has destroyed.


    • I don’t expect a lot from any politician–as a person, I can focus on the positive or the negative. One of the reasons I like Obama all right, although with few exception his big government leanings rarely paralleled my own (I was okay with his executive order on OT and salaried workers, generally, as an example).

      But Trump has so many positives for me I have a hard time not liking the guy (except when he’s speaking a lot of the time). Gotten a lot of federal judges through and I think that’s going to be critical for maintaining an America that looks anything like America for the next 20 or 30 years. I think Brett Kavanaugh is a good justice to have on the SCOTUS. Gorsuch I’m less sure about now–especially after that “give Oklahoma back to the native Americans” decision, but I suppose time will tell. Might not be that bad in practice though I don’t care for the reasoning. And don’t like the legal jurisdiction impact (and don’t understand why previously adjudicated cases couldn’t be grandfathered, as this should be regarded as a change of jurisdiction, not invalidating 100 years of previously acknowledged jurisdiction).

      And I love his current press secretary. I think Trump is correct on China and even if future politicians may not be, just the fact that he’s surfacing so much of it and making it generally visible is a positive. I think he is right on borders and the wall–even if the wall is never going to get built (even presidents can’t perform miracles, after all).

      But more than anything I think he is 90% right on Endless War. The Syrian action early on seemed pointless but on the whole I like him better than Biden or most Republicans and, as far as the Dems go, I only think Tulsi Gabbard might actually oppose endless war if in office.

      But I don’t expect presidents to be saints. Or perfect. Trump’s imperfections are highly visible–and that’s a problem in a world where image matters more than substance. But for me, I like him.


    • Trump is the first conservative that has ever fought back against the media. For that alone, I appreciate all he is done.


    • So, how long till the cancel culture left goes after substack?


      • Watching Taibbi engage with his idiot critics from the left is amusing:


        • Eh, I find it depressing. Not Taibbi’s performance but that there so many critics and how pro-fascist (or pro-communist, whatever) the criticism is. But mostly how obtuse they are, missing the point and not addressing the point and not acknowledging they are missing the point, that’s really depressing. But also all the Orwellian Ministry of Truth shit: the argument that the public demanded the NYT editor resign when it was activist staff of the publication wanting to prevent any wrongthing from creeping out. A lot of missing the point and a lot of being wrong on the facts.

          But it’s Twitter. I should know better and temper my expectations accordingly.


      • At whatever point it seems culturally relevant, or the work being done in various substacks becomes viral and gets public attention.


    • Some of the comments there just illustrate the problem perfectly.

      To my great surprise, I’ll miss Andrew. His columns were reliably full of low-key racism, transphobia, and a version of misogyny unique to gay men; and he definitely wants to uphold a power structure that places and maintains white men at its top; but once you get past that, he writes with a mixture of compassion and intelligence that sometimes overpowers the logical gaps in his thinking (because of how strenuously he had to bend himself into a knot to appear not racist or misogynistic while supporting racism and misogyny, but I think that knot bending came to him genuinely, because he genuinely does not think he is those things) and is always sure to provoke intense thought.

      Whole months would go by where I refused to read his column, so as not to support his low-key white supremacist worldview, but I always came back. There’s something addictive about his writing, even when it’s spouting nonsense, predicated on lazy doublethink, or indulging in the fantasy that we should accept slow change rather than ensure that, for example, women have equal access to positions of power as men do. It was at times frustrating that Andrew’s view of human rights centered on the needs of white men to feel safe and secure above all else, but there were also times where Andrew would write something insightful that broke out of his blinkered, self-serving enclave.

      And even when Andrew couldn’t think about the needs of anyone but himself and his white brethren, it was worthwhile to understand how the mind of a rational, seemingly-progressive racist worked. I’ll miss him, even though I’ve long wondered whether New York Magazine was the best home for him. So long, Andrew; I look forward to reading The Dish (for free) to stay connected to the thoughts of privileged white men who are oh so reasonably opposed to letting others share their seat at the table.

      And I find this response to another comment (from a conservative complaining about the mob and leftist intolerance) extremely telling. I’ve seen these from both left and right, when someone from the other side comments in a given publication:

      As I asked below, why do you come to this liberal site? Are there NOT tons of great conservative ones you can comment at? I truly don’t get it.

      Complete irony-free as to Sullivan’s point about having people of different views, even exceedingly different views, mix it up and talk with each other about those views. This particular poster makes the point repeatedly: this is a liberal publication, why do you come here? Why aren’t you sticking with your own kind?


  4. Interesting read

    “David Shor’s Unified Theory of American Politics
    By Eric Levitz”


    • And once you know the people who are in that office, you realize that actually no; they were just at an awkward office meeting and were like, “Oh man, what are we going to do this week? Well, we could do climate.”

      That’s what I try to tell people when they say there are big, coordinated conspiracies coming out of public institutions and big bureaucratic companies. That’s just not how it works.

      When Florida puts out COVID 19 tests with 100% positive results and it turns out it was 10%, a lot of people go: conspiracy! All about conditioning the sheep! I just don’t believe any group of people is that motivated or organized.


    • But, if you ask a battery of “racial resentment” questions — stuff like, “Do you think that there are a lot of white people who are having trouble finding a job because nonwhite people are getting them instead?” or, “Do you think that white people don’t have enough influence in how this country is run?” — and then control for the propensity to answer those questions in a racially resentful way, education ceases to be the relevant variable: Non-college-educated white people with low levels of racial resentment trended towards us in 2016, and college-educated white people with high levels of racial resentments turned against us.

      While I don’t fault the sampling mechanism, I do disagree with couching a belief that “white people have it hard” as being a form of racism–by which is generally meant some form of light white supremacy at best–is not the best vernacular. Also don’t agree that being opposed to illegal immigration is inherently racist, but I think some of these conceptual differences define why some folks lean Marxist and some folks lean Trump more so that the particulars of racial resentment.

      And I think the real synthesis of these views is that Obama-to-Trump voters are motivated by racism. But they’re really electorally important, and so we have to figure out some way to get them to vote for us.

      Granted, most of them probably won’t be reading the Intelligencer, but I think that worldview is part of the problem, something that they may win in spite of, not because. More so than varying degrees of racial resentment–as measured by surveys that clearly have certain presumptions inherent in them.

      Yeah. Black voters trended Republican in 2016. Hispanic voters also trended right in battleground states. In 2018, I think it’s absolutely clear that, relative to the rest of the country, nonwhite voters trended Republican. In Florida, Democratic senator Bill Nelson did 2 or 3 points better than Clinton among white voters but lost because he did considerably worse than her among Black and Hispanic voters. We’re seeing this in 2020 polling, too. I think there’s a lot of denial about this fact.

      I think this is interesting I’ll need to see more of this to consider it meaningful. At the same time, I never see the Democrats really speaking to working-class minorities much anymore, nor do the seem to hesitate to basically suggest minorities are anything other than permanent victims unable to win at the game of life because white people are unfair. Which I just don’t feel is an appealing message to anybody.

      Among Black voters, one of the biggest predictors for voting Republican is not attending church.

      That’s really interesting.

      But we’re at a point now where, if you look at Stanford Law School, the ratio of students in the college Democrats to students in the college Republicans is something like 20-to-1.

      That’s really scary.


      • But we’re at a point now where, if you look at Stanford Law School, the ratio of students in the college Democrats to students in the college Republicans is something like 20-to-1.

        Well, would you put being part of the College Republicans on your resume? No hiring manager will ding a College Democrat. Even conservatives won’t. But I would bet that 100% of big law firms would ding a College Republican. That guy would be Andrew Sullivan’d immediately.


    • “David Shor’s Unified Theory of American Politics
      By Eric Levitz”

      I am sure this guy is a really smart guy, but the ease and carelessness with which he applies the term “white racist” tells me either he has a huge ideological blind spot, or he is a liar.

      Note that when explicitly asked to define “racism” in the context of which he uses it, he completely dissembles and never actually answers.


      • He self identifies as a Marxist and he’s 28, so I think he buys into the current woke definition of the word.

        I suspect he’s only seen it used in the manner that he regurgitates in the piece.

        I found it interesting because most people with his worldview are mindlessly arguing that the Republicans are doomed as far as elections go and he doesn’t buy that.

        And he was fired from his job for citing data that riots don’t help Democrats electorally.


      • ” And once you know the people who are in that office, you realize that actually no; they were just at an awkward office meeting and were like, “Oh man, what are we going to do this week? Well, we could do climate.””

        this is so true.


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