All Things in Moderation

Vital Statistics:

Stocks are higher this morning on overseas strength. Bonds and MBS are down small.

The week after the jobs report is usually pretty data-light and the upcoming week is no exception. We do have a lot of Fed-speak, but that is it.

The number of borrowers in forbearance plans declined last week, according to Black Knight. The number of loans in forbearance dropped by 104k, and brings us back to levels last seen in early May. Black Knight doesn’t have a concrete reason for the decline, but it does postulate that many of the initial forbearance plans were for 90 days or so, and if you received forbearance in mid-March, it was up by mid-June. Of course, the economy is improving as well, and many people who were put out of work due to stay-at-home orders are now back on the job.

Luxury home prices are falling, according to Redfin. “The pandemic is playing an outsized role in the luxury market, as very expensive homes are particularly sensitive to periods of economic uncertainty,” said Redfin economist Taylor Marr. “Many luxury buyers are nervous about pouring money into an investment that may be difficult to sell if the economy takes a nosedive. By comparison, people buying starter homes they plan to live in for 10 years are less concerned with volatile financial markets as long as they have money for a down payment and can afford monthly mortgage payments. And although access to credit is loosening up now, it tightened considerably for jumbo loans, which a lot of luxury buyers use, in April and May.”

Tappable home equity just topped $6.5 trillion, which is a record.

“Tappable equity rose by 8% year-over-year in the first quarter of 2020 to a record high of $6.5 trillion,” said Graboske. “What’s more, with mortgage interest rates hitting record lows, 90% of homeowners with tappable equity now have first lien rates above the prevailing market average. But while Q1 2020 saw overall refinance lending climb to a 7-year high, the number of cash-out refinances, as well as the dollar value of equity withdrawn via refinance, fell for the first time since early 2019. All in, cash-outs accounted for just 42% of refinance loans in the first quarter, roughly half of what was seen at the recent high in Q4 2018 and the lowest such share since Q1 2016. Likewise, the $38.7 billion in equity withdrawn from the market via cash-out refinances was down 8% from the prior quarter. Further, rate lock data – a good indicator of lending activity – suggests the trend is likely to continue, as the cash-out share of refinance activity has continued to fall throughout the second quarter.

As COVID started a mass tightening in credit, jumbos and cash-out refinances became unattractive to many lenders and MBS investors. Fears of rapid prepayment speeds meant that investor demand was weak. As confidence returns to the markets, cash out refis should provide a long-lasting opportunity for the industry. To put that $6.5 trillion into perspective, the MBA estimates that 2020 volume will be around $2.5 trillion. So this could have some legs.

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