Morning Report: ADP jobs disappoints

Vital Statistics:

 

Last Change
S&P futures 3093 3.1
Oil (WTI) 39.84 0.69
10 year government bond yield 0.68%
30 year fixed rate mortgage 3.16%

 

Stocks are higher this morning on no real news. Bonds and MBS are down.

 

Yesterday’s stock market rally capped the best quarter for the stock market since 1998. Pretty much the economy bottomed in early April and seems to be springing back.

 

ADP reported that 2.4 million jobs were added in June. The Street was looking for about 3 million so that was a bit of a miss. Note that the Street is looking for 3 million tomorrow in the jobs report. “Small business hiring picked up in the month of June,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute. “As the economy slowly continues to recover, we are seeing a significant rebound in industries that once experienced the greatest job losses. In fact, 70 percent of the jobs added this month were in the leisure and hospitality, trade and construction industries.” There was a big jump in construction hiring, with almost 400,000 new jobs added.

 

The Markit PMI Index rebounded in June, according the IHS Markit.

“US manufacturers have reported a marked turnaround in business conditions through the second quarter, with collapsing production and demand in April at the height of the COVID-19 lockdown turning rapidly to stabilisation by June. The PMI posted a record 10-point rise in June amid unprecedented gains in the survey’s output, employment and order book gauges.
“The record rise in the New Orders Index, coupled with low inventory holdings, bodes well for a further improvement in production momentum in July. A record upturn in business sentiment about the year ahead likewise hints that business spending and employment will start to revive. “However, while the PMI currently points to a strong v-shaped recovery, concerns have risen that momentum could be lost if rising numbers of virus infections lead to renewed restrictions and cause demand to weaken again.”

I think the last statement there really nails it. If we don’t have a big enough resurgence of COVID cases to warrant another nationwide lockdown, then the economy is pretty much out of the woods, and if anything will accelerate as the unprecedented amount of monetary and fiscal stimulus over the past 3 months takes effect.

 

Construction spending fell 2.1% MOM in May but was up 4.5% YOY.

 

Low mortgage rates will fuel housing affordability this summer, even as buyers bid up the affordable inventory. “The economic fallout and impacts to the housing market from the pandemic appeared to peak in April. The number of existing-home sales fell 18% relative to March, housing starts fell 26%, and the supply of homes available for sale approached record lows,” said Mark Fleming, chief economist at First American. “While historically low mortgage rates made it more affordable for those with stable incomes to buy a home, tightening credit standards and limited supply of homes for sale made it more difficult for some to obtain financing and find the home they want.”

 

 

12 Responses

  1. In Austin a significant component of the surge in positive tests is among construction workers.

    There was never a stoppage here, although many contractors claimed the unusual circumstances to avoid time penalties. The OSHA regs for this apparently have required fewer workers on site at one time. One commercial builder explained to me that he has to continually monitor the crews for masks and distancing. However, the plumbers and electricians are generally refusing to wear masks because they actually impede them. So the builder shuts down other construction near where either the plumbers or the electricians are working. This screws with scheduling, but apparently everyone is going along to get along.

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  2. OMG I just read this quote……….It is a lot easier to wear a mask than a ventilator…………..TRUTH

    Sorry I’m not here to debate or respond to my comments………..I barely have time to be online so I’ll just interject things when I think they’re relevant and you guys can ignore me if you want!

    I try to skim through Brent’s morning report and the comments but otherwise I’m focused on our business (such as it is) and my recovery. I’m trying very hard to get back to back squats, dead lifts, hiking etc and it’s a lot of work with a new hip! I still have about 8 weeks of PT ahead of me.

    Stay healthy and COVID free everyone!

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  3. In my sleepy upper westchester town of Lewisboro, the Town Board is planning to issue a statement that the town is racist towards a laundry list of people, basically a “mea culpa, we’re racist.”

    What would the legal financial and regulatory impact of a town doing that? Is there a precedent? Does it trigger something at DOJ? Does it open the town up for lawsuits?

    They think the volunteer fire department is racist because they don’t seem to be receptive to the woke meddling of politicians.

    Like

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