All Things in Moderation

Vital Statistics:

Stocks are flattish on no real news. Bonds and MBS are down small.

No progress was made over the weekend with respect to re-opening the government. Trump mentioned the possibility of declaring a national emergency in order to obtain funding for the wall without Congressional approval.

The drop in rates over the past month has caused an increase in activity in what is typically a dead part of the year. Falling interest rates have lured some buyers back into the market who are looking to take advantage of the decline before they move up again. FTN Financial estimates that if we get another 20 basis point drop in the 30 year fixed rate mortgage, 300 billion conforming loans will become in the money and refinanceable. With the Fed Funds futures predicting the next Fed move will be a rate cut, that is in the realm of possibility.

Friday’s jobs report showed an increase of 300k jobs, yet the unemployment rate rose from 3.7% to 3.9%. Does that make sense? It does if you get deep in the weeds on how the BLS calculates these numbers.

New York State is legendary for how long a delinquent borrower can live in their house without paying the mortgage. Some have been there for almost a decade.

Filed under: Economy, Morning Report |