Vital Statistics:
Last | Change | |
S&P Futures | 2457.0 | 2.0 |
Eurostoxx Index | 387.2 | 0.4 |
Oil (WTI) | 46.5 | 0.0 |
US dollar index | 87.3 | -0.1 |
10 Year Govt Bond Yield | 2.30% | |
Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA | 102.625 | |
Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA | 103.59 | |
30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage | 3.96 |
Stocks are higher this morning after a strong GDP report out of China. Bonds and MBS are up.
There isn’t much in the way of market-moving events this week with a sparse economic calendar and the Fed is in the quiet period ahead of their FOMC meeting next week.
Inflation at the consumer level remains below the Fed’s target as the consumer price index was flat MOM and up 1.6% YOY. Ex-food and energy, it was up 0.1% MOM and 1.7% YOY.
Retail sales disappointed, falling 0.2% MOM. The prior month was revised upward however from a drop of 0.3% to a drop of 0.1%. The Street was looking for 0.1% gain. The control group fell 0.1% versus expectations of a 0.4% gain.
Industrial production rose 0.4% MOM while manufacturing production rose 0.2% and capacity utilization ticked up to 76.6%. Improvements in the mining sector accounted for the rise.
Business inventories rose 0.3% as autos increased. Inventory will amount to a slight positive in the Q2 GDP report. The inventory-to-sales ratio is at 1.38, which is elevated compared to historical norms and would ordinarily be associated with a downturn in the economy.
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey fell to 9.8 last month, but is still reasonably strong.
Earnings season gets into full gear this week, with a lot of the big banks reporting.
Wells Fargo reported better-than-expected earnings last week. The stock was down about 2% on the news, despite the earnings beat as improvements in credit quality were offset by high expenses. Mortgage origination was down 11% YOY to $56 billion, while applications fell 13% and the size of their pipeline fell 28%. Nonconforming loans rose by $7.3 billion, while second mortgages fell. Mortgage banking revenues fell 19%, however which indicates margin compression.
Mortgage banking revenues at JP Morgan and Citi also fell by 26% and 52% respectively.
Defaults are soaring for subprime auto loans, as the sector has hit new post-crisis highs. While subprime auto loans are not going to have the impact on the economy that subprime mortgages did, this is a tell that all is not necessarily well in consumer-lending land. Despite the aggressive underwriting in auto loans, mortgage credit remains tight as a drum. The auto loan issue is yet another one of the unintended consequences of Fed policy: many of the biggest investors in this sort of paper are pension funds, insurance companies, etc, who have to hit a return bogey and cannot earn enough in government and investment grade paper to meet their actuarial obligations. Many of the state pension funds are solvent only if you squint at the asset return assumptions.
Mortgage credit eased a touch in June, according the the MBA Mortgage Credit Availability Index. Conforming and non-conforming credit eased while government credit tightened.
Filed under: Economy, Morning Report |
This article is beyond description. Do yourself a favor and read it, you won’t regret it.
http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2017/07/24/how-trump-is-transforming-rural-america
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Are either of these faked? Does anyone here know? Read anything about them?
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Those are hilarious!
What’s your take on them?
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For the limo, maybe he saw another car with more American flags on it to his right and headed for it.
For the one with Netanyahu he was confused about something. Whether he ought to have been confused or whether he had a bad senior moment I dunno. My wife thought may be he had to fart and walked away from everyone for a moment to escape the mikes, etc.
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I had seen the limousine one before. Extreme distraction would be my guess. Although it doesn’t seem possible to miss the limo.
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Juiceboxers take on the workplace:
https://www.vox.com/the-big-idea/2017/7/17/15973478/bosses-dictators-workplace-rights-free-markets-unions
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I think these poor victims should quit. It’s outrageous!
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Elizabeth Anderson is the Arthur F. Thurnau Professor and John Dewey Distinguished University Professor of Philosophy and Women’s studies at the University of Michigan.
They really should announce that up front, rather than making you read the whole ridiculous thing before letting you know.
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I wonder what Tyson’s reasoning is behind not allowing bathroom breaks. And it would appear that there is a long history (pdf) of bathroom breaks being forbidden.
I can’t for the life of me figure out why.
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You are assuming that the assertion about Tyson’s not allowing bathroom breaks actually has some basis in fact.
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I don’t know about the bathroom breaks, but she fails to consider that a laundry list of agencies like OSHA, EEOC, etc exist to prevent workplace abuse.
The other thing she fails to mention is that workplace commissions and protections are great for older workers, but they are not so great for younger ones. Look at the youth unemployment rates in Europe. Way higher than the US.
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Brent;
I don’t know about the bathroom breaks,
Is it even true? Tyson denies it.
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=6&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwj7y4aD-ZDVAhVIwmMKHejID2AQFgg7MAU&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.odwyerpr.com%2Fstory%2Fpublic%2F6910%2F2016-05-16%2Ftyson-chicken-combats-bathroom-rumors.html&usg=AFQjCNGNgU9qXFzm8jJXwYtgNDJoFJjUAA
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i thought that story sounded too good to be true
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Don’t criticize Matt Taibbi:
http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2010/02/this_is_what_happens_if_you_te.html
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who throws coffee?
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Progressives.
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“redundant and discursive”
them’s fightin words..
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Going that extra mile to prove the Department doesn’t discriminate on the basis of race:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/morning-mix/wp/2017/07/17/bride-to-be-called-911-for-help-and-was-fatally-shot-by-a-minneapolis-police-officer/?hpid=hp_hp-more-top-stories_no-name%3Ahomepage%2Fstory&utm_term=.4a587c6a20dd
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Interesting argument:
So in this telling, the “right thing” is to prevent true information about Nixon’s involvement with the Vietnam peace negotiations from becoming public knowledge, lest it “influence” the vote in the presidential election.
Trump has made everyone crazy.
The more traditional version of this story is that it wasn’t about “doing the right thing” but rather Johnson not wanting to open the can of worms about having wiretapped Nixon’s campaign plane, not just the South Vietnamese ambassador.
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It’s official: Kid Rock is running for Senate:
https://www.kidrockforsenate.com/
Singing Sweet Home Alabama all summer long…
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I hope the settlement is in the many millions, but given Columbia’s endowment, it’ll probably barely cause a yawn even if it is. I think the kid should sue not just the university, but every Columbia employee that was involved. Personally. These assholes need to be made personally responsibility for these injustices.
It is akin to jnc’s complaint about bank employees rarely going to jail for their misdeeds. Until they feel the pain personally, they will keep this crap up.
https://jonathanturley.org/2017/07/17/columbia-settles-lawsuit-with-male-student-accused-of-rape-in-mattress-girl-case/
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I guess broads should never get a break from being in the presence of a dude’s Johnson.
http://thefederalist.com/2017/07/05/new-army-training-tells-female-soldiers-put-naked-men-showers/
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That’s a real national defense issue there…
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Small government activist in the morning:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2017/07/17/jeff-sessions-wants-police-to-take-more-cash-from-american-citizens/
Thanks for your input, Beauregard.
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