Morning Report: June payrolls rebound in a big way 7/8/16

Posted on July 8, 2016 by Brent Nyitray

Vital Statistics:	Last	Change
S&P Futures	2112.0	15.0
Eurostoxx Index	324.3	2.1
Oil (WTI)	45.5	0.4
US dollar index	87.1	0.1
10 Year Govt Bond Yield	1.41%
BankRate 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage	3.44

Stocks are higher after the jobs report came in stronger than expected. Bonds and MBS are down small

Jobs report data dump:

Nonfarm payrolls + 287k
Two month revision -6k
Unemployment rate 4.9%
Labor force participation rate 62.7%
Average weekly hours 34.4
Average hourly earnings + 0.1% (+2.6% YOY)

The payrolls number is certain to get everyone’s attention, however some of that might be a catch-up from May, which was revised downward to only 11k jobs. The 3 month average is 147k. Given Brexit, this report probably doesn’t move the needle for the Fed. Until we start seeing more evidence of wage inflation the Fed isn’t going to be aggressive.

Mortgage rates have lagged the move downward in Treasuries. As we saw in 2012, bond yields bottomed out in July, but mortgage rates continued to fall for another 4 months, finally bottoming in November. We are seeing the same thing again, where mortgage rates have fallen with the 10 year, but nowhere near as dramatically. Note the MBA keeps bumping up its forecast for 2016 volume.

Filed under: Economy, Morning Report |

11 Responses

Kevin S. Willis, on July 8, 2016 at 9:42 am said:

And my payroll hasn’t changed in 5 years. Wage stagnation!

And . . . Frist!

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Brent Nyitray, on July 8, 2016 at 10:07 am said:

Anyone suppose we will get any columns decrying the violent rhetoric of Black Lives Matter? I guess they aren’t as bad as those nutty tea partiers..

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Let the mutherfuker burn!, on July 8, 2016 at 5:29 pm said:

Funny piece on the perpetually hysterical Sally Kohn.

http://hotair.com/archives/2016/07/08/sally-kohn-stop-blaming-black-lives-matter-the-way-i-blame-pro-lifers/

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Brent Nyitray, on July 8, 2016 at 7:29 pm said:

PL hasn’t changed a whit…

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Brent Nyitray, on July 9, 2016 at 1:22 pm said:

President Obama said Saturday it’s hard to “untangle the motives” of the shooter who killed five Dallas police officers, despite the gunman telling police he wanted to kill white police officers.

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/jul/9/obama-says-motives-dallas-cop-killer-micah-xavier-/

Is he really that fucking dense? I have no idea what he thinks burying the motive will buy him (or the US)

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- Let the mutherfuker burn!, on July 9, 2016 at 4:08 pm said:
  
  But it’s no mystery what Dylan Roof’s motives were.
  
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  - Brent Nyitray, on July 9, 2016 at 6:23 pm said:
    
    racist
    
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    - Let the mutherfuker burn!, on July 9, 2016 at 7:05 pm said:
      
      Loud and proudly so.
      
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- markinaustin, on July 9, 2016 at 8:45 pm said:
  
  Sometimes the crazy guy is a black racist?
  
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novahockey, on July 11, 2016 at 8:01 am said:

I suppose that when this information was immediately released, it was obvious it wasn’t an “assault rifle”

a WWII era SKS.

http://www.westernjournalism.com/what-the-media-wont-say-about-the-gun-used-in-dallas-shooting/

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- Let the mutherfuker burn!, on July 11, 2016 at 8:21 am said:
  
  We may never know the media’s motives.
  
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