Morning Report: FOMC minutes a non-event 7/7/16

Stocks are higher this morning on no real news. Bonds and MBS are down after a stronger-than-expected ADP jobs report

We have a few economic data points this morning. Job Cuts fell 14.1% in June, according to Challenger and Grey. Job cuts fell in the East and Midwest, while rising in the South and the West.

The ADP Employment number shows private companies added 172k jobs in June, above the 160k forecast. May was revised to 168k. Of course last month the ADP number came in at 173k while the official BLS nonfarm payroll number came in at 38k. So ADP has been pretty useless lately

Initial Jobless Claims fell to 254k last week.

The FOMC minutes didn’t really shed much light on the state of thinking at the Fed, other than to say the Fed remains data-dependent. The June FOMC meeting predated Brexit, so in many ways it is a dated view. The participants noted that the labor market weakened while the overall economy was strengthening, and believe that the economy will continue to grow moderately. Given the added uncertainty of Brexit, the FOMC meeting in a few weeks will almost certainly be a non-event, and even tightening in September looks like a tall order.

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