Morning Report: FOMC minutes a non-event 7/7/16

Stocks are higher this morning on no real news. Bonds and MBS are down after a stronger-than-expected ADP jobs report

We have a few economic data points this morning. Job Cuts fell 14.1% in June, according to Challenger and Grey. Job cuts fell in the East and Midwest, while rising in the South and the West.

The ADP Employment number shows private companies added 172k jobs in June, above the 160k forecast. May was revised to 168k. Of course last month the ADP number came in at 173k while the official BLS nonfarm payroll number came in at 38k. So ADP has been pretty useless lately

Initial Jobless Claims fell to 254k last week.

The FOMC minutes didn’t really shed much light on the state of thinking at the Fed, other than to say the Fed remains data-dependent. The June FOMC meeting predated Brexit, so in many ways it is a dated view. The participants noted that the labor market weakened while the overall economy was strengthening, and believe that the economy will continue to grow moderately. Given the added uncertainty of Brexit, the FOMC meeting in a few weeks will almost certainly be a non-event, and even tightening in September looks like a tall order.

14 Responses

  1. Scott Adams on the FBI announcement vis-a-vis Clinton.


    • “The folks who support Clinton are sheepishly relieved and keeping their heads down”

      For about 10 minutes until central command issued the order: “Comey over stepped his authority”


      • Her actual campaign is doing the smart thing. The idiots over at PL are another story.

        Liked by 2 people

        • the 180 is less than 12 hours was impressive.

          Comey did the right thing!
          He’s a monster who editorialized!

          Liked by 1 person

        • “Comey did the right thing!
          He’s a monster who editorialized!”

          Nothing is more indicative of politics-as-tribal loyalty to me. When the same people say one thing at first, then after 12 hours of exposure to prominent members of the tribe saying something else, smoothly shift to saying something entirely different than what they were saying at first as a new set of ideas dominates in the tribe-think . . . wait, important members of my tribe are saying this. This is the new truth!


        • Kev, I am not gonna look, but did PL staff write that, or was it the peanut gallery? I went over there the other day and suggested that being a Hillary fan did not require slavish indifference to her flawed conduct, or some such, but JNC answered that it actually did! Which was funny, but seemingly true, so I left.


        • Joe, I think it is also true that a normal R campaign would would have absolutely picked up on repeating Comey’s stinging rebuke of HRC. Do it item by item, and then conclude with “the administrative remedy were she a gummint employee would be to fire her – so it remains for us not to rehire her.”

          But no. DJT tells of his mancrush on Saddam Hussein. Freak.


        • “Kev, I am not gonna look, but did PL staff write that, or was it the peanut gallery?”

          Peanut gallery, as far as I recall. That’s where I noticed the huge about-face from “Comey is unimpeachable” to “Comey doing what he did is unheard of and unconscionable” in, like, 6 hours.

          Based on experience, I would not be surprise if Sargent had the first position and Waldman had the second, however.


        • Comey did the wrong thing argument was also an op-ed by a former Obama DoJ spokesman:


        • “Comey did the wrong thing argument was also an op-ed by a former Obama DoJ spokesman”

          And when folks started reading that was apparently when a lot of people who had been saying Comey did exactly the right thing suddenly shifted gears and conformed to the new official narrative without batting an eye.


    • Absolutely, and why not?


    • Whether citing HRC turns out to be appropriate or not, it surely is a great defense talking point. Again we have careless tech, not grossly negligent publication directed at large, or to someone without a need to know.

      So if the result is different, it may be because USMC rules on secure servers are penal in nature, not administrative.

      This guy tried to save lives so his case is sympathetic for the defense, anyway.

      Also, I could not find if he is being discharged under less than honorable conditions. If he is being forcibly discharged under honorable conditions than the case parallels what Comey says should have happened to HRC.

      Perhaps this is his point – to raise the nature of his discharge to honorable, or at least, general.


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