Morning Report: Existing Home Sales rebound 1/22/16

Stocks are higher this morning as global markets rallied overnight. Bonds and MBS are lower.

Generally a risk-on feel to the market, as stocks and commodities are rallying. Oil is back above $31 a barrel.

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index improved to -.22 from -.36 last month, while the Index of Leading Economic Indicators fell 0.2%.

Existing Home Sales rose 14.7% in December to 5.46 million. November’s numbers were depressed by TRID, and it looks like much of those sales got bumped to December. This makes 2015 the best year for existing home sales since 2006. The median home price increased 7.6% to $224,100. Housing inventory continues to fall, and the 1.79 million homes for sale represents only a 3.8 month supply (6 – 6.5 months’ worth constitutes a balanced market). First time homebuyers accounted for 32% of all sales, while all-cash transactions fell to 24%.

The first time homebuyer is returning to the market, as FHA origination increases. After the FHFA cut FHA insurance premiums, we saw an increase in FHA origination.

Things might run a little slow today as the Federal Government workers will leave at noon to get home before Snowmageddon II hits DC. Fannie Mae pricing will be the most affected.

As Ted Cruz and Donald Trump dominate the headlines and the polls, the big Wall Street donors are relatively sanguine.

19 Responses

  1. Fristy, fristy, frist frist frist!


  2. Are you guys north of us expecting to be affected by the Great Blizzard of 2016 also, or is it just playing in the mid-Atlantic?


  3. I am on the northern edge of it, so our forecast is for 2 – 7 inches… I have a flight out of JFK on Sunday afternoon, and hoping I don’t get delayed…

    It looks like it will be a Mid-Atlantic event, not really a Northeast event…


  4. My mind is blown, I recently flew on United for a meeting and my company’s E-Ticket email includes, get this, the CO2 emmissions for my trip!!

    That is FUCKED UP!

    This country’s deserved descent and wallowing in the shitter is something else.


  5. This has the ring of truth to it. And makes me want to support Cruz all the more.

    Coming as it does from so many Washington politicos who have for years said it was beyond the pale to attack fellow Republicans, and how dare conservatives not rally behind their chosen candidate, the hypocrisy here of rejecting a lifelong Republican in Cruz for a Republican of convenience in Trump is laughable. The motivations are obvious: first, there is the personal animus; second, the partisan belief Cruz would fail and Trump would succeed; third, the cynical view that Trump would be a better working partner than Cruz.

    Except there’s one more thing going on here too – the recognition of a threat to the existing order not of Ted Cruz the man, but Ted Cruz the model. Yes, Cruz himself is an existential threat to the established order in Washington, someone with the potential to reorient a party coalition and blow up the existing gravy train. But everyone in Washington who depends on that order is convinced that he’s a general election loser. So why the palatable (sic) underlying fear for the disruption a Cruz nomination could bring? If they’re so certain he’s going to lose, why worry?

    Because the threat smart members of the Washington political elite truly believe in is not Ted Cruz, but the model he represents: that the path for an ambitious freshman politician to achieve leadership of the Republican Party in this day and age is not the normal give and take and deference to leaders and precedent and the way we do things around here, but instead to take a flamethrower to this system from day one. Regardless of whether Cruz wins a general election, his nomination could fundamentally transform the political incentives of the Senate and change the internal dynamics of the Senate Republican Conference. It shows that you can get a shot at the presidency not by playing along, but by playing your own game.

    The potential of every two years having someone walk through the door in each new Senate class who thinks they could be the next potential Ted Cruz is an absolute nightmare for those who have thrived in their cushy lifestyles as stewards of the world’s most exclusive club. And that is why his nomination is unacceptable.


  6. BTW, Roe v Wade. turns 43 years old today.

    As a reminder, it took the court 58 years to reverse itself in Plessy v Ferguson.


  7. My understanding is that DC residents have resorted to cannibalism.


  8. Hope all of you East Coaster’s survive the storm……….and hopefully none of you are actually traveling this weekend…..LOL………stay home and watch football instead!!!


    • lms….thanks. Starting to come down now. Predictions are up to 15 inches for us. We’ll see.

      Unfortunately no football games today. Have to settle for some college basketball.

      New blizzard post up.


  9. Parody or real?


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