Morning Report: Strange things happening in the financial markets 11/12/15

Stocks are lower this morning as comments from Mario Draghi fail to inspire markets overseas and commodity prices cannot get out of their own way. Bonds and MBS are flat.

Job openings increased to 5.5 million in the US last month.

Macy’s cut its profit outlook, which is an ominous sign for the holiday shopping season. Note we get retail sales tomorrow.

The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index rose from 41.1 to 41.6 last week. Sentiment regarding the economy and people’s personal finances were unchanged, but the perception of the buying climate improved. I am sure low gas prices are having an effect here.

Initial Jobless Claims were flat at 276k last week. They are at a 5 week high, but are still below 300k and are sitting at lows we haven’t seen since the 1970s.

Mortgage Applications fell 1.3% last week as purchases rose 0.1% and refis fell 2.2%.

Five head scratchers in the market which are caused by regulation and central bank distortions. People are demanding higher rates from the government than they are demanding from other banks. Theoretically this should be impossible, however capital requirements have made it happen. There are other strange pricing / volatility events happening, which is why the Fed is anxious to get off the zero bound, even though inflation remains well controlled and the economy remains tepid.

Completed foreclosures increased to 55k in September as the judicial states continue to work through their foreclosure inventory. The national foreclosure inventory stands at 470,000 homes, which amounts to about 1.2% of all homes with a mortgage. This is down 24% YOY. Here is what is behind the spike in REO. Part of it is seasonal – many states have foreclosure moratoriums around the holiday season.

Sentiment for home purchases declined slightly in September, according to the Fannie Mae Housing Survey. Overall, sentiment about the real estate market is slowly improving, but it has been a tough slog.

15 Responses

  1. Obama’s rule on changing the threshold for automatic overtime qualification is punted until late 2016.


  2. Proves he knows damn well it is going to cost jobs and doesn’t want those losses to be part of his legacy.


  3. Hah. Or won’t happen at all, since the next president can just wash it away, should they choose. Maybe trying to give Hillary something to run on?

    “All these good things that are set to happen will go away unless you vote for me!”


  4. I hope this is a typo, otherwise Waldman really has gone off the rails:

    “Based on prior research on similar programs, they argue that spending just under $60 billion over ten years would actually wind up saving the taxpayers over $3 billion.”

    “Could Republicans support a Democratic idea for shrinking government?
    By Paul Waldman
    November 12 at 12:46 PM”


  5. From Ace of Spades:

    “Glenn Reynolds: Raise the voting age to 25. Yes.”

    Less likely than ending the minimum wage, but arguably more beneficial to the country. But I’m afraid it would still be too late.


  6. Like

  7. I’ll bet you dollars to doughnuts these people are professional protesters and not students..

    The lack of evidence of the poopstika tells me this is all a hoax..


  8. Hoax and/or mass hallucination. Everybody involved wants to believe they are a victim and can be part of a glorious revolution so anything remotely resembling critical thought is suspended. My guess that some involved in the “black only” healing space are doing it explicitly to prompt unhappy caucasians in making a statement with a “white’s only” healing space, so that the racial battle can continue, with caucasian being the one’s to blame for their insensitivity. Naturally.

    Parents really want to pay out enough to buy a luxury car every year for their kids to chat and text and tweet in a “healing space”?


  9. It is the victim Olympics…


  10. Is a guy dressing in drag as a gag now offensive to trannies? Asking for a friend.


  11. No more Federal funding until this is fixed!

    Not one fucking dime to these rape factories!


  12. Actually, watching a drone hit on Harvard or the University of Michigan would suit me just fine…


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