Morning Report: Retail Sales disappoint 11/13/15

Stocks are lower this morning after some disappointing data and an earnings miss out of Cisco Systems. Bonds and MBS are up small.

Retail Sales rose 0.1% in October, missing estimates. The control group which strips out autos, gas and building supplies rose 0.2%, which was again below expectations. Retail sales are getting tougher to measure as more and more shopping goes on line. Many of the small online shops do not report their sales data to the government, so actual retail sales data is hard to come by.

The Producer Price Index fell 0.4% in October, which was well below expectations again. Ex-food and energy, the index was up 0.1%.

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey increased to 93.1 from 90.

Low energy prices are a big driver of this disinflationary environment. They aren’t going away as the International Energy Association says we have 3 billion barrels in storage, which is a record. And soon we will have Iran adding to the supply.

The third quarter was the best in nearly a decade, according to the NAR. Home prices increased in 87% of all MSAs. Existing home sales are up 8.3% YOY and prices are up 5.4%. Inventory remains tight.

Citing market conditions, non-bank lender Loan Depot is postponing its IPO.

50 Responses

  1. As the resident language pedant, I thought this point was pretty interesting:

    http://thefederalist.com/2015/11/13/racism-isnt-the-problem-on-campus-gender-insanity-is/

    Many ironies surround the rise of LGBT/feminist ideology, not the least of which is the role of American exceptionalism. One could argue that the United States has been far more obnoxious about imposing its gender radicalism on the world than the Soviet Union was about forcing a vision of classless societies across the globe.

    The language predominantly spoken in the United States—English—is extraordinarily bereft of gender constructions compared to almost all the other languages in the world. As I learned in compiling the contributions to “Jephthah’s Daughters,” most European languages involve nouns, adjectives, and articles that adapt according to feminine, masculine, or neuter forms. Other languages beyond Europe, such as Arabic and Chinese, do not have words for “parenting” or “marriage” other than compounds of “mother-father” and “husband-wife.” The obsession with forcibly changing language to scrub gender out of everyday speech came from the United States for a very clear reason—it could only be remotely conceivable in a place that spoke English.

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    • I made a foray into the PL today. I have to say that the comments system there makes it very hard to really keep track of everything that is being said. You really have no chance to follow all or even most of the conversations, especially if you have any interest in making detailed, substantive comments instead of brief one-liners. There are just too many comments updating too often in too many different places. As a system I think it really sucks, wholly apart from the quality of the commentary.

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  2. i saw you met Al, the resident anarchist who advocates for state control of everything.

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  3. Shit hit the fan in Paris. Sounds like Muzzies.

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  4. @Scottc1: “I have to say that the comments system there makes it very hard to really keep track of everything that is being said.”

    It’s really terrible. Way worse than it used to be.

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  5. @novahockey: “i saw you met Al, the resident anarchist who advocates for state control of everything.”

    He wants universal democracy (he has said), so that everybody votes on everything. He has essentially advocated for no government, except whatever has to exist to allow people to vote on everything. And administrate whatever non-capitalist financial system this utopian state has. As if human beings would start voting themselves into hierarchal bureaucratic structures immediately. Something-something-magic would keep capitalism cropping up in the form of black markets, I guess.

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  6. @scottc1: “If you want to take a class in “ethnic, racial, and sexuality theory,” feel free to take one, but don’t force such an ideologically driven course on all CMC students. If the dearth of such courses at CMC bothers you, maybe you should have chosen a different school. ”

    Obviously, they are speaking through the lens of white privilege.

    It is amazing to me that this common sense statement: “If the dearth of such courses at CMC bothers you, maybe you should have chosen a different school” is now essentially a form of “hate speech”. Yay, America!

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  7. @scottc1: “We are disappointed in the fact that your movement has successfully managed to convince its members that anyone who dissents does so not for intelligent reasons, but due to moral failure or maliciousness. We are disappointed that you’ve used phrases like “silence is violence” to not only demonize those who oppose you, but all who are not actively supporting you. We are most disappointed, however, in the rhetoric surrounding “safe spaces.” College is the last place that should be a safe space. We come here to learn about views that differ from our own, and if we aren’t made to feel uncomfortable by these ideas, then perhaps we aren’t venturing far enough outside of our comfort zone. We would be doing ourselves a disservice to ignore viewpoints solely on the grounds that they may make us uncomfortable, and we would not be preparing ourselves to cope well with adversity in the future. Dealing with ideas that make us uncomfortable is an important part of growing as students and as people, and your ideas will inhibit opportunities for that growth.”

    That’s straight-up Jeffersonian. It should be the governing document for colleges, not a dissent from the norm.

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  8. I have not followed what happened at U of MO.

    From what I have read here, I wouldn’t understand it and I would get an upset stomach if I had.

    Are some or many black students trying to resegregate themselves?

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    • Mark:

      Are some or many black students trying to resegregate themselves?

      I doubt that they have really thought about things enough to even have a desired end-game. I think they are primarily interested in nothing more than proclaiming their victimhood in one way or another, and having their feelings validated by authority figures.

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  9. Like

  10. This attack in France has to shake up the presidential race in a big way… Immigration is about to become even more contentious of an issue than it already is.

    And obama wanting to be the “leader on global warming?” Um, I don’t think people are gonna be interested in hearing about that shit at the moment…

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  11. i am sure obama will blame this on Bush, bernie will blame it on income inequality, cankles will mutter something about being resolute and marie harf will yak about jobs for jihadis.

    And the media?

    CNN will argue that this makes hillary look presidential.

    Greg Sargent will argue that this means we have to pass blanket amnesty NOW

    MSNBC will blame it on Halliburton..

    Salon will blame it all on racism.

    Vox will argue that we need to admit more Syrian refugees as a show of goodwill that will make ISIS like us.

    The NYT will try and use this as an argument for stricter gun control

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  12. The Greeks say one was

    I am afraid I still can’t wrap my head around “refugees” that leave behind their wives and kids…

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  13. Immigration is about to become even more contentious of an issue than it already is.

    So you’ve said. I still fail to see how you equate immigration here to what happened in Paris. That’s comparing apples to grapenuts.

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    • Mich:

      I still fail to see how you equate immigration here to what happened in Paris.

      What happened in Paris is the result of radical Islam. Radical Islam is not indigenous to western culture, which both France and the US share. It exists in Paris because of the immigration of Muslims from Muslim countries to the west. If Muslims can export radical Islam to Paris via immigration, they can export it to the US via immigration.

      Can you now see the relationship between immigration here and what happened in Paris?

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  14. The media will try and push that narrative, but i doubt it is going to work. Especially if the attacks continue….

    Admitting millions of people in order to turn Texas purple seems to be a bit rash at the moment

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  15. Wonder what Merkel will do. Now at least two came through Greece recently.

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  16. I wonder how the Europeans like their trade of a military for a welfare state these days…

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  17. They’re counting on a US bailout. Knowing Republican Hawks, they’ll get it.

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  18. Admitting millions of people in order to turn Texas purple seems to be a bit rash at the moment

    That’s a complete non sequitur if I ever heard one!

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  19. That’s a complete non sequitur if I ever heard one!

    if illegal immigrants voted (R), obama would be advocating for a “spare no expense” titanium wall on the border…

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    • Mark:

      I imagine there are all kinds of illegal activities that have net positive economic effects. Generally speaking illegal activities are illegal for reasons other than their effects on the economy or the federal purse. Certainly illegal immigration is.

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  20. $12 billion.

    Chump change.

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  21. I don’t see how it’s a non sequitur. We have no idea who these folks are or there intentions. The prudent thing to do would be to acknowledge that and turn them back.

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  22. Security is going to be tightened in the US.

    Just wait for the first special snowflake on some college campus to claim she has been racially profiled..

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  23. Like

    • Maybe France should have reconsidered the air strikes, given the carbon footprint of planes. Not to mention the bombs. Clearly France is not focused on the important things.

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  24. of course obama figured today is the perfect day to release more guys out of GITMO.

    http://news.yahoo.com/us-transfers-five-guantanamo-detainees-uae-pentagon-005729064.html?soc_src=mediacontentsharebuttons&soc_trk=tw

    there goes the 11-dimension chess player again…

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  25. If Muslims can export radical Islam to Paris via immigration, they can export it to the US via immigration.

    We don’t have thousands of Muslim immigrants streaming across our borders. Now do you see why Brent’s statement makes no sense?

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  26. @Michigoose: “We don’t have thousands of Muslim immigrants streaming across our borders. Now do you see why Brent’s statement makes no sense?”

    We admit about 100,000 Muslim immigrants legally into the US every year, according to Census data. Pew research has estimated that the US immigrant Muslim population will more than double over the next 20 years:

    “In the United States, for example, the population projections show the number of Muslims more than doubling over the next two decades, rising from 2.6 million in 2010 to 6.2 million in 2030, in large part because of immigration and higher-than-average fertility among Muslims. The Muslim share of the U.S. population (adults and children) is projected to grow from 0.8% in 2010 to 1.7% in 2030, making Muslims roughly as numerous as Jews or Episcopalians are in the United States today. Although several European countries will have substantially higher percentages of Muslims, the United States is projected to have a larger number of Muslims by 2030 than any European countries other than Russia and France.”

    http://www.pewforum.org/2011/01/27/the-future-of-the-global-muslim-population/

    From Brietbart (or, as the knee-jerk reaction on Plum Line would be, “bogus source”):

    “The head of the United States Citizenship and Immigration Services Union, Kenneth Palinkas, recently warned about this very issue: “It is also essential to warn the public about the threat that ISIS will exploit our loose and lax visa policies to gain entry to the United States. Indeed, as we know from the first World Trade Center bombing in 1993, from the 9/11 terrorist attacks, from the Boston Bombing, from the recent plot to bomb a school and courthouse in Connecticut, and many other lesser-known terror incidents, we are letting terrorists into the United States right through our front door.””

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  27. @Scottc1: “Maybe France should have reconsidered the air strikes, given the carbon footprint of planes. Not to mention the bombs. Clearly France is not focused on the important things.”

    Heh. But, seriously, France is doing exactly the right thing. Track the leadership and hit it hard after an attack. You’ve got about a month where nobody is going to say: oh, you killed some civilians with your attacks, you’re so bad (or complain about the carbon footprint). Endless wars don’t do anybody any good, and don’t really provide a disincentive. The only thing is the number of bombs. 20 is what I read. Should have been more like 2000.

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  28. The Intelligence community is going to argue again for back doors into cell phones and all consumer encryption (never mind that such backdoors would open up such devices to cyberterrorist attack, and plain old criminal attack). I’ve heard a dozen different reporters describe the attacks as “very sophisticated” using almost the same language. Talking points have gone out from the NSA and CIA! And the world intelligence community, no doubt.

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  29. More on how Mizzou is worse than any old terrorist attack in some foreign city:

    http://www.breitbart.com/national-security/2015/11/14/mizzou-campus-activists-and-black-lives-matter-complain-about-paris-stealing-the-spotlight/

    “Racist white people kill me, you want everyone to have sympathy for YOUR tragedy, but you have none for ours”.

    “Interesting how the news reports are covering the Paris terrorist attacks buck said nothing about the terrorist attack at #Mizzou”

    There was a terrorist attack there? Is she talking about the poopstika? I find such comments telling though . . . they are upset that their special-little-snowflake selves are the center of national attention. Look at me! Look at me! Most of the tweets seem to be: hey, pay attention to us! We’re important! I want my followers to keep increasing! I need more people using my hashtag!

    “Not to take away from Paris at all but just how they’re getting news coverage & the worlds[sic] support, we deserve it too. #Mizzou” and “We can remember the tragedy in Paris and still remember #Mizzou. We are capable of multitasking. Both situations are equally messed up.”

    While they may well believe terrorist attacks in Paris are equivalent to racism in #Mizzou (some of which is likely perpetrated by the victims, or fictionalized, to keep the narrative going), the telling thing is the core complain: hey, pay attention to us! We’re important! We’re changing the world here! We’re the Greatest Special-Little-Snowflake Generation!

    “Disgusted @ white conservative Americans using Paris as a “see black people, your woes here w/ us could be more extreme”, but not surprised”. I mean, seriously? That’s how you take it? Or purposely distort it?

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  30. How areSyrian refugee’s entering the country being vetted?

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    • @George: IDK. I would favor extensive polygraph testing, an IQ test, a skill or talent demonstration, a comparative religion quiz, and placing all who pass in southern Utah, an area of the nation thirsting for diversity but informally open to plural marriage, for a three year residency.

      @KW: I continue to refuse to follow U of MO news anywhere but here.

      Did anyone notice HRC is being hidden out by the DNC for the security of her candidacy?

      I told my best friend from HS when we met for dinner in NYC at the beginning of the summer that all else equal Rubio seemed the smartest political choice for the Rs. He is a heart surgeon and a strong R – not so much a strong conservative. He and I have generally agreed on issues since we were 13. He thought it over and said he saw how Rubio was the best contrast to HRC. I added that “pretty” has counted in POTUS races, ever since the advent of national TV, provided they can talk well. Clearly there are no JFKs, RWRs, or even WJCs or BHOs running. BUT:

      is Rubio now closing in, or not?

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  31. How areSyrian refugee’s entering the country being vetted?

    If they will vote (D) then they get waved in…

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  32. @Brent: “If they will vote (D) then they get waved in”

    If they ask to get in and the quotas haven’t been met, they get waive in. I think they might look at a terrorist watch list. That’s about it.

    Don’t forget, the Gang of Eights immigration bill would have tripled the number of Sryians legally allowed into the US. Because, you know, no difference between Mexican immigrants seeking better paying work in the US (and possibly access to our social welfare system) and immigrants from radicalized Islamic states that want to destroy the West.

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  33. @MarkInAustin: “is Rubio now closing in, or not?”

    I don’t think that can honestly be determined until after the first few primaries.

    “I continue to refuse to follow U of MO news anywhere but here.”

    Good enough. And conservatives complain but they should be thankful. That kind of mentality is, I think, the only thing that will give us many college-educated millennial conservatives (outside of, perhaps, some religious or strictly conservative universities). It’s the sort of craziness that makes people (as it did me) question the assumption that they should be liberal (politically, in contemporary parlance) because liberalism is equal to enlightenment and openness and cogitation and thoughtful dialog, etc. I think it is the anger and bullying and self-absorption and “it’s okay when we do it” that keeps pretty much every 20-something from voting Democrat in an unbroken bloc.

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    • Mark…Carson is the heart surgeon, not Rubio. Also, to your question of how Rubio is doing, this came out this morning:

      http://www.redstate.com/2015/11/16/marco-rubio-new-de-facto-gop-frontrunner/

      In spite of what the polls at the moment say, which is that Trump and Carson are way out in front of Rubio, virtually everyone on the GOP side with political experience who does not have an axe to grind or ratings to boost will tell you, off the record, that they expect Rubio to win. At the CNBC debate I ran into people who actually worked for two of the other Presidential campaigns who confessed to me that they gave Rubio better than 50% odds to win at this point.

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      • Scott – my best friend from HS is a world renowned pediatric cardiologist and surgeon. I read your reply and got a good laugh.

        And Carson is a well regarded neurosurgeon. Not heart.

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        • Mark:

          Scott – my best friend from HS is a world renowned pediatric cardiologist and surgeon.

          Sorry…I totally misread your comment. It makes a lot more sense to me now.

          And Carson is a well regarded neurosurgeon. Not heart.

          Ah, yes. Had I remembered that I probably would not have misread your comment.

          Like

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