Morning Report: Good numbers out of D.R. Horton 11/10/15

Stocks are lower on no real news. Bonds and MBS are flat

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index was flat in October at 96.1. Interestingly, “quality of labor” has replaced “poor sales” as the #3 issue facing small business (taxes and regulations are 1 and 2). Over half of all firms reported trying to hire in October, but 48% of them couldn’t find qualified applicants. A net 17% of small businesses intend to raise pay, up from September and the highest level since 2007. Perhaps we are finally starting to see wage growth pick up in the US.

Import prices fell 0.5% in October and are down 10.5% year-over-year.

Wholesale inventories and wholesale sales rose 0.5% in September. The inventory to sales ratio is at 1.31, which is pretty high and is a warning sign for a cyclical slowdown.

Completed Foreclosures are up 50% to 55k in September, but are down 17.6% year-over-year. The seriously delinquent percentage is 3.4%, the lowest since December 2007. The judicial states, particularly the Northeast are beginning to make some progress in reducing their foreclosure inventory.

Homebuilder D.R. Horton reported better-than-expected numbers this morning. Earnings were up 44% to 64 cents a share. They also hiked their dividend. Homebuilding revenue was up 28% and orders increased by 19%. Overall, orders seem to be looking up for the builders, which bodes well for the 2016 Spring Selling Season, which starts in a few months.

Speaking of betting on housing, two big timber REITs – Plum Creek Timber and Weyerhaeuser – announced a merger yesterday. This deal is basically a big levered bet on housing. The US has under-built for years and we have tremendous pent-up demand, especially at the lower price points.

43 Responses

  1. Frist!

    Although, to be honest, that’s all I’ve got right now. Happy birthday, Marine! 🙂

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  2. I wasn’t a jarhead… I was a squid..

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  3. In light of this whole Missouri and Yale thing, is it really a surprise that the NFIB considers the “quality of labor” to be a big concern?

    Special snowflakes must be a pain in the ass to manage…

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  4. I know–McWing was a jarhead. I should’ve prefaced that, though. 😀

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  5. Special snowflakes must be a pain in the ass to manage…

    Saturday Night Live nailed it with The Millenials:

    http://www.nbc.com/saturday-night-live/video/millennials/2916016

    1st Millenial: “I identify as gay but I only sleep with women”
    2nd Millenial: “That’s very brave. I’m just gender lazy.”
    Boss: “Oh, great! We’re talking about gender again.”
    2nd Millenial: “Glad you’re here. I need to go to the south of France to find myself.”

    I consider it a horror movie.

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  6. what a time to be alive.

    somewhat related:

    Nick Naylor: After watching the footage of the Kent State shootings, Bobby Jay, then seventeen, signed up for the National Guard so that he, too, could shoot college students.

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    • Interesting, don’t you think, that, judging by the activities of activists/protesters, the problem of racism seems to be centered primarily in cities and campuses run by liberals?

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  7. @Scott… thinking about the Baltimore thing… 50% Black cops, Black mayor, Black Chief of Police. Black US AG, Black president and obama thinks the problem is racism??

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    • Brent:

      …and obama thinks the problem is racism??

      His cynical exploitation of the race issue (surely he is too smart to really think the problem is racism) probably harms blacks the most, as the real problems afflicting the “black community” never get addressed. Another indication of just how Obama should be judged, that he actually doesn’t really give a rat’s ass about the “black community” as long as his political prospects are furthered.

      BTW, I just saw this, headlining the ESPN website:

      http://espn.go.com/college-football/story/_/id/14097482/the-invisible-claim-victory-missouri-resignation-president-tim-wolfe

      But so much of the uprising was rooted in the frustration of minority students facing years of entrenched racism. They were demanding the ouster of a president, supported by a faculty whose actual preference was to oust the chancellor. It all stemmed from a movement addressing major offenses that were deemed too trivial by an administration whose only response had been to advise that the slapped get tougher, have thicker skin, get over it.

      It is ESPN’s promotion of utter crap like this that really tempts me to cancel my cable subscription.

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  8. Someone has some sense at the University:

    “The Missouri School of Journalism is proud of photojournalism senior Tim Tai for how he handled himself during a protest on Carnahan Quad on the University of Missouri campus.

    University of Missouri System President Tim Wolfe and University of Missouri-Columbia Chancellor R. Bowen Loftin both resigned on Nov. 9 after complaints and protests of their leadership. Tai was covering the event as a freelancer for ESPN when protesters blocked his access through physical and verbal intimidation.

    The news media have First Amendment rights to cover public events. Tai handled himself professionally and with poise.

    Also, for clarification, Assistant Professor Melissa Click, featured in several videos confronting journalists, is not a faculty member in the Missouri School of Journalism.

    She is a member of the MU Department of Communication in the College of Arts and Science. In that capacity she holds a courtesy appointment with the School of Journalism. Journalism School faculty members are taking immediate action to review that appointment.”

    http://journalism.missouri.edu/2015/11/dean-david-kurpius-comments-on-students-coverage-of-protest-on-carnahan-quad/

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  9. This is the sort of response to perceived bias that I respect.

    http://www.vox.com/2015/11/10/9706056/reese-witherspoon-sexism-speech

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  10. I guess Disney is simply too scared to offend soccer moms and the SJW left so they just uncritically spout off all the leftist talking points and are 100% PC all the time.

    Caitlyn Jenner was the perfect embodiment of that…

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  11. surely he is too smart to really think the problem is racism

    who knows what he actually thinks? I wouldn’t be surprised if he saw racism in the white pages…

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  12. @brentnyitray: Your white privilege is showing. What do you know about the psychological damage caused be being a person of color, yet forced to have your name appear in the “White Pages”? Nothing!

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  13. @Scottc1: “Interesting, don’t you think, that, judging by the activities of activists/protesters, the problem of racism seems to be centered primarily in cities and campuses run by liberals?”

    Give a mouse a cookie, and he’ll want some milk to dip it in!

    Give an inch and human beings will want a mile. Coddle and you spoil. You reap what you sew!

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  14. “It is ESPN’s promotion of utter crap like this that really tempts me to cancel my cable subscription.”

    But didn’t ESPN give us Keith Olbermann?

    10 Reasons ESPN is MSNBC with Better Video:

    http://www.newsbusters.org/blogs/matthew-philbin/2015/07/08/10-reasons-espn-msnbc-better-video

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    • KW:

      10 Reasons ESPN is MSNBC with Better Video:

      Too true. I had no idea it’s ombudsman is a former Mother Jones and NYT journalist. No wonder it is so bad.

      It turns out that the photographer who got bullied and pushed around by the protesters at that Mizzou campus protest yesterday was actually on assignment from ESPN, charged with covering the protest. I checked and could not find a single mention on the ESPN website of what happened to the photographer, much less the kind of front page coverage it gave that idiotic article yesterday. Pathetic.

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  15. @jnc4p: (from the Reese Witherspoon article): “”I dread reading scripts that have no women involved in their creation because inevitably I get to that part where the girl turns to the guy, and she says, “What do we do now?!” Do you know any woman in any crisis situation who has absolutely no idea what to do? I mean, don’t they tell people in crisis, even children, “If you’re in trouble, talk to a woman.” It’s ridiculous that a woman wouldn’t know what to do.”

    I think it’s more likely that the woman will turn to the man and ask: “What do we do?” And they guy will probably say, “Let’s do A, B and C.” And the woman will respond: “What kind of idiot are you? We’re doing X, Y, Z. End of discussion.”

    Women do indeed ask: “What do we do?” but it’s always a set up. 😉

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  16. @brentnyitray: “Special snowflakes must be a pain in the ass to manage…”

    They are impossible to manage. Impossible. Let’s hope they can make a good living from their podcasts and blogs about how victimized they are. 😉

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  17. @yellojkt: “1st Millenial: “I identify as gay but I only sleep with women”
    2nd Millenial: “That’s very brave. I’m just gender lazy.”
    Boss: “Oh, great! We’re talking about gender again.”
    2nd Millenial: “Glad you’re here. I need to go to the south of France to find myself.”
    I consider it a horror movie.”

    Especially if your a parent who the kid thinks is morally obligated to pay for that trip to the south of France.

    “I don’t want it. I deserve it.”

    “Yeah. I know Photoshop.”

    https://screen.yahoo.com/millenials-084221678.html

    The non-stop texting is not a horror movie, though. It’s reality. The friend jumping out the window, and all his friends running to the window to take pictures (and selfies).

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  18. Like

  19. @Scottc1: “I checked and could not find a single mention on the ESPN website of what happened to the photographer, much less the kind of front page coverage it gave that idiotic article yesterday. Pathetic.”

    Yup. You want to talk about the liberal media, look no further than ESPN and sports media in general. It’s not necessarily intuitive, but unlike much the the mainstream press, there is no conservative version of ESPN out there. So they completely set the narrative . . . and choose what to exclude, such as the obviously newsworthy manhandling of their own reporter. They are in a perfect position to call those bullies to account and won’t do it. Because it runs counter to the desire narrative.

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  20. “the central “victim” who went on hunger strike is from a family worth millions.”

    The luxury of going full progressive generally requires a great deal of money.

    Like Ann Coulter said, liberalism is a whimsical system of the very rich and the very poor, both of whom have very little stake in society.

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  21. Like

  22. “It’s stunning how quickly the story in Columbia, Missouri, has turned from a debate about racism in the university community to a story about free speech—and attempts to limit it.”

    Only to you. For the rest it’s predicable.

    http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2015/11/hate-speech-on-campus/415200/

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  23. your assets aren’t yours and shut up about it.

    lover/under on a shooting war. 20 years.

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  24. Yeah, but somehow it’s about not paying for roads and schools.

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  25. Still confused about the shit swastika at Mizzou. If you’re a Nazi wouldn’t using shit to create a symbol you venerate be anathema? Like a Catholic making a crucifix out of a turd, no?

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  26. Isn’t it just another hoax? I thought there was no evidence of it..

    I’m calling bullshit (humanshit) right now…

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  27. ““I mean it just broke my heart,” Christakis said. “I thought that I had some credibility with you, you know? I care so much about the same issues you care about. I’ve spent my life taking care of these issues of injustice, of poverty, of racism. I have the same beliefs that you do … I’m genuinely sorry, and to have disappointed you. I’ve disappointed myself.””

    These people all make me want to barf.

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  28. And the left accuses us of being batshit crazy…

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  29. I expected the professor to have a sign around his neck listing his counter-revolutionary crimes.

    Why would he debase himself like that? You figure he’s got tenure, right? Isn’t this exactly what it’s for? Or does that not protect thought-crimes?

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  30. Hell, aren’t colleges going substituting unpaid adjunct professors for tenured faculty as a way to save money these days?

    Still wondering where all the tuition increases for the last generation have gone…

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  31. @mcwing: “Or does that not protect thought-crimes?”

    I think it probably does not, either directly (oops, you’ve violated the terms of your tenure—yes, there were terms, didn’t we tell you?) or “we will make your tenure here a living hell unless you get out there and prostrate yourself before the mob”.

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  32. @scottc1: “The left does love having cultural revolutions, doesn’t it.”

    Revolutions for their own sake. Once we have to start having revolutions based on completely arbitrary or entirely fictional crisis, I’m expecting we will no longer have riots when the home team loses it’s ball throwing game, we’ll have government coups.

    Looking forward to the return of the guillotine.

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  33. The level of tolerance on campus makes me believe in AGW even more.

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  34. @mcwing: “The level of tolerance on campus makes me believe in AGW even more.”

    Good. Otherwise, you’d have to be prosecuted for your denial of an obvious scientific fact. But that’s how you treat obvious scientific facts, you legally prosecute anybody who disputes them.

    Like

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