Morning Report – Homeownership rate falls to 4-decade low 7/29/15

Markets are flattish as we await the FOMC decision. Bonds and MBS are down small.

Mortgage Applications rose 0.8% last week as purchases fell 0.1% and refis rose 1.6%.

Pending Home Sales fell 1.8% in June versus May, but are up 11.1% year over year.

Pretty much no one is forecasting a rate hike at today’s meeting, given there is no press conference. There is a chance of rate volatility around 2:00 pm, but I would expect the statement to say pretty much what the various Fed speakers have been saying for a while – the economy is improving, the labor market is losing some of its slack, inflation remains contained, and the Fed will remain data-dependent.

Homebuilder D.R. Horton reported yesterday, beating estimates. Orders increased 25%, closings increased 37%. Texas remains strong despite the drop in oil prices.

The homeownership rate fell to the lowest level since 1967. Basically all of the gains that began with the Great Bill Clinton / George W Bush experiment in using housing as a tool for social engineering have been given back. Note that household formation is finally back on the upswing, so we have a lot of pent-up demand.

29 Responses

  1. Is this the bottom of a valley or the accelerating downhill slide?

    We are looking to buy another duplex. Inquiring minds want to know the future.

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  2. Tough to tell. rents are increasing, but multi-fam construction is too. Think Millennials will still buy, but need a few years in the job market to work down student loan debt and get some confidence.

    IMO, people generally want to own their own home – it is human nature..

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  3. spends day at PL. pounds head on desk. denies FOIA request for paperwork on self-inflicted injury.

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  4. Like I said, your hope was misplaced.

    PL has convinced me that reasoned discussion is a waste of time. I had a higher opinion of progressives and liberals before I started interacting with them online on a regular basis, hence my own evolution of tone.

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    • jnc:

      I had a higher opinion of progressives and liberals before I started interacting with them online on a regular basis, hence my own evolution of tone.

      Wow. If PL has even you saying such things, it must be even worse now than when I was a regular.

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  5. the tech issues had me wanting to quit before. i should stop wasting so much time.

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  6. Scott, eventually PL drags everyone down to it’s level.

    Edit: and yes it’s worse.

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  7. This is my shocked face.

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  8. Videos must be hell on fundraising.

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  9. The stuff on the video is too bad for people to see, but we are going to continue to do it regardless…

    I guess it just goes to Scott’s point that the left simply plays Calvinball with the law when the politics isn’t in their favor…

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  10. check out Ace. there’s a new one. and they’re discussing an “intact” specimen that happens to be be born

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  11. I am generally pro-choice, but this stuff is pretty gross…

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    • Brent:

      I am generally pro-choice, but this stuff is pretty gross…

      I think that if the reality of what takes place in abortions was widely known, there would be a lot more demand for restrictions on the procedure, especially the time period in which it is allowed to take place. Keeping the reality of abortion out of the public consciousness is key to the PP business model (and especially to keeping its federal subsidies.)

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  12. I’m so pro-choice I actually support forced abortions in certain circumstances! The Planned Parenthood videos are interesting to me less for their content and more for the reaction of Planned Parenthood and their supporters in the Democratic party and media. It’s been very illuminating and I look forward to seeing more.

    In the end I’m not sure anything will come of it other than some attention and reduced donations for a time. The Republicans will not go to the mat to defund PP because there are Pro-choice Congressmen facing re-election and most Americans support some level of legalized abortion. Also, this is the hill that Democrats will die on and Republican party leadership knows that.

    I admire the investigator’s and pro-life’s change of tactic however. They are not abandoning the All Abortion is Murder belief but are becoming much more strategic in their efforts. Most pro-choice people are completely repelled by these videos and will support some level of restriction on abortion. What we’re seeing from the pro-lifers is gradual incrementalism and what Planned Parenthood and abortion maximalists like myself are finding is that it is very hard to combat.

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  13. ” the reaction of Planned Parenthood and their supporters in the Democratic party and media”

    agreed. the circling the wagons is fascinating. it’s like this one organization can do no wrong. beyond reproach.

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  14. The fascinating thing is that if you aren’t tapped into RW blogs, you probably don’t even know about it… We have become completely bifurcated in our news sources..

    To be honest, I have absolutely no idea what the left is all up in arms about today, either.

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    • Brent:

      The fascinating thing is that if you aren’t tapped into RW blogs, you probably don’t even know about it…

      Yup. Which is a good indication of how the MSM should be understood.

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  15. yes. see: wagons, circled.

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  16. @ScottC: “Has PL been talking at all about these videos?”

    What I’ve been seeing is all “fraudulent” and “war on women” type stuff. Oh, and irrational and inexplicable hostility towards an organization that provides family planning support. That’s about it.

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  17. why do you hate people who give breast cancer screenings, bagger?

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  18. @ScottC: “Wow. If PL has even you saying such things, it must be even worse now than when I was a regular.”

    I don’t know if it’s worse, but it wears you down. DDAWD asked me why I was such a racist because of something I posted about the Adam’s Mark hotel incident. I just said the guy would have to have something seriously wrong with him if he didn’t know exactly what would happen to him for hanging a slave doll like it was a lynching effigy, and that translated (to brilliant liberal DDAWD) as a pro-racism message in support of the moron who did it.

    There are ideologues out there with whom it is impossible to have a conversation.

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  19. “why do you hate people who give breast cancer screenings, bagger?”

    Because capitalism!

    Because, like all conservatives (or anyone who doesn’t agree with or immediately parrot the ideological party line) I hate all women and minorities because . . . capitalism!

    Or something.

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  20. @novahockey: “and they’re discussing an “intact” specimen that happens to be be born”

    Bah! Fraudulent and staged. Just like the moon landings.

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  21. @McWing: (from the linked article) “Instead of reassuring women that they can be beautiful at any size, let’s reassure them that they don’t have to be.”

    Translation: You are not allowed to want to look beautiful by your own standards because I don’t like it. The body positive folks are all about feeling better about yourself and being allowed to play in the same sandbox as folks who are generally considered to be far more naturally attractive. Because *those people* want to.

    There is so much “you can’t want things I don’t want you to because I don’t like it” in those sorts of pieces. It’s about all there is in them.

    And the reality is, men and women will continue to find each other either sexually attractive or not sexually attractive forever and always. That’s not going to stop.

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  22. Like I wrote, women are stupid.

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  23. All of us?

    🙂

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