Morning Report: Bank Earnings and Iran 7/14/15

Posted on July 14, 2015 by Brent Nyitray

Stocks are lower this morning after retail sales came in weaker than expected. Bonds and MBS are up.

Looks like we have a deal with Iran. Sanctions are lifted, but snap back if Iran violates any of the terms of the agreement. The immediate effect will to bring another 3 MM barrels of oil per day onto the market. Congress will have a vote on the deal.

Retail sales disappointed in June, with the headline number falling .3% versus expectations of a positive .3%. Ex autos and gas, they fell .2%, versus the .4% expectation. May strong numbers were revised down slightly. There appears to be some seasonal effects going on here (early Memorial Day “borrowed” sales from June) so don’t read too much into this number.

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Survey fell in June to 94.1 from 98.3. Weak sales and the political environment accounted for the decrease. Looks like hiring stopped in June.

Import prices fell .1% in June and are down 10% on a year-over-year basis.

Now that Tsipras has accepted the EU’s terms, he has to sell the idea back at home. Not going to be an easy task, but it will probably pass.

Hillary Clinton gave a speech yesterday on the economy, and it is more or less a grab-bag of assorted liberal ideas: increase the minimum wage, more aggressive enforcement of discrimination laws, paid family leave, free childcare, the usual.. She even went after Uber (who cheekily did a senior citizen promotion that day). It is clear she is feeling the #Bern and is worried about her left flank.

JP Morgan reported this morning that mortgage banking net income fell 20% in the quarter. Not a lot of color on mortgage banking in particular, however they are paying close attention to China (I’ll bet). The stock is up about 1 percent on the open.

Wells also reported this morning. Mortgage banking revenues fell 1% in spite of the fact that originations rose to $62 billion from $47 billion. Well’s market share fell to 13% from 28% three years ago.

Filed under: Morning Report | 11 Comments »

Polygamy 7/14/15

Posted on July 14, 2015 by markinaustin

Being of the school that hears the word polygamy and forthwith tires, imagining a competitive household in which it is revealed that under pressure at least one adult participant is nuts, I have never engaged in a discussion of multiple spousing.  And as a lawyer, I have never understood how an argument for polygamy as constitutionally protected could be made.  After all, there is no equal protection argument to be had.  But Kennedy’s loosy-goosy “due process” argument in the SSM case has perhaps opened a door a crack that could have remained slammed shut.  Certainly, Justice Roberts thought so.

So when I stumbled across this article in The Economist, I read it with interest and decided to share it here.

http://www.economist.com/blogs/democracyinamerica/2015/07/marriage-and-civil-rights?spc=scode&spv=xm&ah=9d7f7ab945510a56fa6d37c30b6f1709

I was struck by the author’s notion that it is libertarians who are actually pushing polygamy, and apparently liberals who oppose it.  I thought everybody opposed polygamy except some folks in Utah who have TV reality shows.

I felt vindicated by his citations of studies of the damage one can expect from polygamy, because they seem evident to me.

Nevertheless, I wonder what it will mean to say there is no right to polygamy, while never prosecuting cases and failing to remove children absent reported repeated physical abuse.  See:

http://www.nbcnews.com/id/23993440/ns/us_news-crime_and_courts/t/women-children-leave-polygamist-ranch/#.VaUFIJNVK1E

Frankly, that case was awful.  But that is what it has taken to enforce laws against polygamy in America.

Given three choices – recognizing polygamy, or banning polygamy with enforcement, or without enforcement – what do you think?

 

Filed under: Open Thread | 19 Comments »