Morning Report: Building Permits at 8 year high 6/16/15

Markets are lower this morning as the rhetoric between Greece and the EU gets heated. Bonds and MBS are up.

Housing starts dropped 11.1% in May to 1.036 million. April was revised higher from 1.135 to 1.165 million. Building permits rose 12% however to 1.275 million. Housing starts have been very volatile, so it makes more sense to look at the trend, which is generally up. You can see that April’s reading was exceptionally good, so a pullback in May is not all that surprising. The good building permits number (highest in 8 years) provides some basis for confidence in the housing recovery. Permits went way up in the Northeast.

Is the private label market coming back, at long last? Issuance of mortgage backed securities have increased to $32 billion this year from $18 billion last year. Much of this new paper is tied to rentals or distressed mortgages from the bubble years. To put the $32 billion into perspective, the private label market was $1 trillion before the crash. As far as new origination goes, pretty much only high quality jumbos are getting securitized, and even that is difficult as the banks prefer to portfolio these loans. We are still a long way from having any sort of robust non-conforming securitization market, but we are headed that way.

The FOMC meeting starts today, and tomorrow we will get the statement, along with the updated projections and a press conference from Janet Yellen. The Street is still thinking the first hike comes in September.

Homebuilders Standard Pacific and Ryland announced a merger of equals yesterday, which will create the 4th largest homebuilder in the US behind D.R. Horton, Lennar, and Pulte. Standard Pacific and Ryland have been discussing the deal for years and they think the timing is right for a push out to the East Coast. Part of the rationale for the deal was to diversify Standard Pacific’s footprint from the red-hot California market, which is showing signs of overheating.

34 Responses

  1. Frist! It had to happen again sometime.

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  2. If you don’t think this is a feature not a bug, tell me why?

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  3. why do you hate sick people, bagger?

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  4. Brent and Scott – what are the implications of Texas’ gold depository?

    http://www.nbcnews.com/video/texas-gold-rush-465391171689

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  5. Revenue source, I guess and hard currency if they get into a pissing contest with the Federal government.

    Maybe greasing the skids for the secession.

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    • Brent:

      Maybe greasing the skids for the secession.

      Good plan, as it is going to have to happen at some point. The left is simply too intolerant of those who disagree with it. As the left gains more federal power and seeks to destroy those who reject leftist ideology, ultimately the only course left will be separation.

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    • Could Texas’ action lead to a sort of “run” on the NY Federal Reserve Bank? And would it actually make any difference whatsoever if other people’s gold was not stored in NYC?

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  6. Maybe greasing the skids for the secession.

    Heh.

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  7. Interesting.

    http://pjmedia.com/instapundit/208682/

    And, seriously, the effect of all these bogus claims is to normalize rape. If 1 in 5 or one in 4 college women is raped — and parents keep sending their daughters to college anyway — then rape must not be such a big deal. And, if you increase the kind of conduct that’s treated as rape to include all sorts of trivial incidents, then just as many women will be guilty of rape as men. Yet it’s overwhelmingly men who are targeted, suggesting that the whole thing is sex discrimination, creating a hostile education environment for male students.

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    • McWing:

      Yet it’s overwhelmingly men who are targeted, suggesting that the whole thing is sex discrimination, creating a hostile education environment for male students.

      Read the story about the hoax at Amherst along with the transcript of the school hearing. It’s pretty clear from the transcript that under the school code he actually has a better claim for being assaulted by her than vice-versa. She admits to consensual activity (she performed oral sex on him) while he says he was so drunk he doesn’t remember anything about the evening. She acknowledges that he was very drunk. The school code says that drunken consent is not, in fact, consent. Sounds to me like he didn’t consent to what she was doing to him. Yet he is the one who got kicked out of school.

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  8. Gotta admit that the earnestness of lefty blog commenters as it regards their desire to Spend Money to Fix Global Warming is fascinating.

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  9. Worth a note:

    “After Mitt Romney’s loss in 2012, the Republican National Committee convened a post-mortem into the causes of the defeat. The project was co-chaired by Sally Bradshaw, whose day job is serving as Jeb Bush’s top political adviser. The report rejected any substantial policy changes and called instead for better technology, a softer tone, and developing an immigration message to appeal to Hispanics. That theory of the defeat will be theory of the Jeb Bush presidential campaign.”

    http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2015/06/jeb-bus-hispanic-president/396020/

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  10. That was good.

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  11. Why do Progressives find Bruce Jenner sympathetic but not Rachel Dolezal?

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  12. I don’t find either of them that sympathetic. I think if Bruce Jenner wants to become a woman, more power to him, everyone should want to be a woman…..LOL. But a reality show………………..really?

    And Dolezal, I think, tried to fool people into believing she was black perhaps to improve her position in the NAACP. I don’t think that’s very cool as it’s deceptive.

    At least Jenner is up front about his identity crisis.

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    • lms:

      I think if Bruce Jenner wants to become a woman, more power to him, everyone should want to be a woman…..LOL.

      Very funny.

      The real question, though, is whether it is even possible for a man to “become a woman”, or whether those who claim to be doing so are just indulging an unfortunate and sad delusion.

      At least Jenner is up front about his identity crisis.

      If in the future Jenner (or any transgender) passes himself off as a woman and introduces himself to new people as “Caitlyn” without informing them that he was born a man, I think he is trying to “fool” people no less than Dolezal.

      (BTW…welcome back.)

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  13. News update from me. Hover is already bugging me about renewing our domain name here………….I don’t mind paying for it for another year as long as y’all are still enjoying yourselves. Let me know if that’s not the case!

    Also, 2 of our 3 kids have bought houses this year. The girls both went in with their fiances, one in Moreno Valley, CA and the other in Golden, CO. Our son and his wife are still looking in the Longmont, CO area.

    Hope you’re all having a nice summer!

    We’re having our pool completely refurbished and they begin the demo today so we’re pretty excited. Also, having solar kicks ass!

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    • lms:

      News update from me. Hover is already bugging me about renewing our domain name here………….I don’t mind paying for it for another year as long as y’all are still enjoying yourselves.

      I thought you passed that to me last year, but I have not received any notifications, so I guess not. Happy to take it over from you if you want. Just forward me the e-mail.

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  14. Congrats lmsinca on the kids and the pool.

    With regards to Dolezal her brother made comments that she first did it in response to negative experiences she had at Howard University.

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  15. jnc, it doesn’t make sense to deceive the NAACP because of something that Howard University did to her.

    Thanks re kids and pool.

    Hope you’re doing well.

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    • Congrats on pool and kids, Lulu.

      Will remodeled pool be longer, for actual laps?

      i am with you on the Jenner PR circus. I heard this morning that Jenner is being awarded a plaque for “courage” by ESPN, which I assume has a tie-in with the Kardashian Zoo show.

      The NAACP lady from Spokane is just a sad case – perhaps delusional. I get the impression she is divorced from the black guy who was her husband when she was at Howard, as a fine arts major. I had to post the link b/c I wonder if the Spokane NAACP knew about her previous litigation. You do not have to be black to be an officer in the NAACP, but I don’t think suing Howard for reverse discrimination is much of a recommendation for that position.

      Lulu and Scott, I will contribute to the renewal. Let me know. If Scott, Kev, and I split it that would be $25 each, correct?

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  16. “lmsinca, on June 17, 2015 at 9:53 am said:

    jnc, it doesn’t make sense to deceive the NAACP because of something that Howard University did to her. ”

    No, that’s when she started it, and then kept going afterwards.

    http://www.buzzfeed.com/tasneemnashrulla/rachel-dolezals-brother-says-she-warned-dont-blow-my-cover#.es9gz7KKo

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  17. Hey guys, the domain name renewal is cheap compared to the upgrade that Scott does. I don’t mind paying for it, just wanted to make sure you’ll all use it for another year. 🙂

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  18. Mark

    Will remodeled pool be longer, for actual laps?

    Nope, exact same shape and size, new skimmer, coping, quartz surface and tile. We also put in a new, very efficient heater and variable speed pump. We love our pool but I’ll continue to swim laps at the gym or various local high schools and colleges.

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  19. Scott

    Very funny.

    Thanks

    The real question, though, is whether it is even possible for a man to “become a woman”, or whether those who claim to be doing so are just indulging an unfortunate and sad delusion.

    I agree it’s unfortunate and sad but I also think there is some biological validity to gender confusion.

    If in the future Jenner (or any transgender) passes himself off as a woman and introduces himself to new people as “Caitlyn” without informing them that he was born a man, I think he is trying to “fool” people no less than Dolezal.

    I think fooling the general public as an individual is different than passing oneself off as a different race to an organization that speaks directly to racial issues.

    I do agree with Mark that she seems a bit delusional from what I’ve read.

    I suppose there are similarities between the two cases but I think the general issues regarding fraudulent behavior are a bit different. TBH, I feel sorry for both of them.

    And thanks for the welcome back……….we’ll see how long I last……I’m really not very interested in politics right now and already the presidential race is getting on my last nerve.

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  20. I’m in! Quanto mas?

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  21. I can appreciate that argument Scott. If there is a difference in my mind it’s minor. Seeing that pic of Jenner makes me wish we could have the “Wheaties” box Jenner back though.

    I think they’re both a little mixed up and probably irrational. I assume you’re not in the camp that wants him to forfeit his gold medals then?

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    • lms:

      I assume you’re not in the camp that wants him to forfeit his gold medals then?

      Definitely not. I am in the camp that thinks he should do whatever he wants and those closest to him to do their best to help him, but that the rest of the world should not be enlisted to indulge his confusions.

      If anyone wants to pay something send a little to Scott…

      No worries, seriously.

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  22. I’m glad you’re all still here hashing it out and I’ll gladly pay the domain renewal. It really is pretty cheap. If anyone wants to pay something send a little to Scott…..his is the larger bill.

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  23. Scott

    Definitely not. I am in the camp that thinks he should do whatever he wants and those closest to him to do their best to help him, but that the rest of the world should not be enlisted to indulge his confusions.

    Something must be wrong, we agree! Is it opposite day or something?

    Like

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