Morning Report – What to watch for with the FOMC this afternoon 6/18/14

Vital Statistics:

 

Last Change Percent
S&P Futures 1933.6 -0.2 -0.01%
Eurostoxx Index 3280.8 5.5 0.17%
Oil (WTI) 106.6 0.2 0.21%
LIBOR 0.231 0.000 0.00%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 80.54 -0.094 -0.12%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 2.63% -0.02%
Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA 105.9 0.1
Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA 105.2 0.1
BankRate 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 4.26

 

Markets are flat ahead of the FOMC meeting. Bonds and MBS are up.

 

Mortgage Applications fell 9% last week as rates ticked up a hair. Purchases fell 4.7% while refis fell 12.7%. Refis dropped to 51.7% of all loans.

 

The FOMC decision is expected around 2:00 pm EST. Expect to see another reduction in asset purchases and no change in the Fed Funds rate. The focus will undoubtedly be Janet Yellen’s dot graph which shows the range of Fed Funds rate projections by the different FOMC members. Remember after the March FOMC meeting the bond market sold off on Janet Yellen’s “as soon as six months” comment, which was referring to the one lone dot sitting at the 1% line in 2014. Current forecasts for 2014 GDP are 2.8% – 3%, unemployment 6.1% to 6.3%, and inflation 1.5% to 1.6%. The Fed has consistently been overshooting on their GDP and unemployment estimates, while their projections of inflation have been more or less on target. So the big things to watch for are a) Janet’s dot graph, and b) revisions to economic forecasts.

 

Julian Castro, Obama’s nomination to head HUD believes that credit standards can be eased for FHA loans without jeopardizing FHA’s solvency. HUD is keen to increase access to credit, not only for minorities but also for the first time homebuyer, who has been the missing piece of the puzzle in the housing recovery.

105 Responses

  1. What a shock.. obamacare costs more than elmendorf and obama said it would…

    http://www.latimes.com/nation/politics/la-na-obamacare-subsidies-20140617-story.html

    By any means necessary…

    Like

  2. Now who’s being naive Kay?

    Like

  3. Out-Fucking-Standing!

    I’m in!

    Like

  4. Place you bets —

    Does Hillary run?

    Like

    • noav:

      Does Hillary run?

      Is there really a question? The media is already trying to give her a boost. (Why in the world would the press hype and broadcast a “town hall” meeting with someone who has literally no current role in government whatsoever?)

      Like

  5. No, but for the family business she needs to be appearing so. It keeps the money flowing into the Clinton Foundation.

    Yes, because it’s her turn and she deserves it.

    What’s the Progressive case for Hillary, as in, why is she the best choice?

    Like

  6. See — i’m with Troll. It’s a cash grab.

    Like

  7. Does Hillary run?

    No question…

    Like

  8. I just heard a sweet Dolly Parton cover of Bob Dylan’s Don’t Think Twice.

    #XMsOutlawCountry

    Like

  9. I was just discussing lawn darts this weekend. apparently a friend of a cousin was struck in the head with one. he lived. but it did stick in his head.

    Like

  10. I’ve never been more convinced of AGW.

    http://www.weather.com/safety/winter/montana-snow-june-20140616

    I literally weep for Gaia.

    Like

  11. Us kids of the 1970s were fed a diet of sugar, salt and red dye #5…

    Like

  12. Thought it was Yellow Dye #5.

    “Al Powell: “You alright, Roy?”
    John McClane: “Just firing down a thousand year old Twinkie. What do they put in these things anyway?”
    Al Powell: “Sugar enriched flour, partially hydrogenated soybean oil, polysorbate 60 and yellow dye #5. Everything a growin’ boy needs.””

    Like

  13. that’s the best Christmas movie.

    Like

  14. I believe it’s been irrefutably established that it’s NOT a Christmas movie.

    Like

  15. Run DMC says otherwise.

    Like

  16. That movie reminds me of my first Persian Gulf deployment. I probably watched it 50 times…

    Like

  17. Yet again, inability to agree on first principles (in this case, of what constitutes a Christmas movie) caused ATiM debate to deadlock.

    Like

  18. I vote for Red Tape as the new name for the Redskins…

    Like

  19. “That movie reminds me of my first Persian Gulf deployment.”

    Hopefully not because of German terrorists hijacking the ship.

    Like

  20. I liked NoVA & Shrink’s suggestion of the Washington Rent Seekers.

    Like

    • McWing:

      Equal Protection is for me, not for thee.

      It seems entirely whacky to me that a trademark, once granted, can be simply and easily revoked by a vote of just 2 unelected bureaucrats. But we do live in Twilight Zone times.

      Like

  21. Set at Christmas time – check
    obstacle that is resolved with a miracle – check (in this case, i give you the F B I)
    fat man in a suit – check (see Al Powell)

    Like

  22. Heh.

    Like

    • McWing:

      The USPTO is going to be furious when it discovers Notre Dame’s mascot.—

      I have been making this point for years. If Redskins is disparaging, how in the hell can Fightin’ Irish, with a belligerent (and most probably drunk) midget as its mascot not also be deemed disparaging?

      Like

  23. Puh-lease.

    Name me another Christmas movie set at Christmas time but is not about Christmas.

    This shouldn’t surprise me. You have no taste. You hated Star Trek reboot.

    In a just world it would have got you banned.

    Like

    • McWing;

      Name me another Christmas movie set at Christmas time but is not about Christmas.

      The Ref. (Great movie, BTW.)

      Like

  24. Please, even the sub-humans that think Die Hard is a Christmas Movie DO NOT include The Ref as a Christmas movie.

    The correct answers are Lethal Weapon and It’s a Wonderful Life.

    My work here is done.

    Like

    • McWing:

      Please, even the sub-humans that think Die Hard is a Christmas Movie DO NOT include The Ref as a Christmas movie.

      Exactly. I was trying to advance your point…Die Hard, like the Ref, is not a Xmas movie. Nor is Lethal Weapon. It’s a Wonderful Life, however, is most definitely a Xmas movie.

      Like

  25. [whistles Ode to Joy]

    http://www.cracked.com/blog/5-reasons-die-hard-is-the-best-christmas-movie-ever-made/

    I actually did not read this before making my FBI point.

    Like

  26. what’s your favorite christmas movie then?

    Like

  27. Wait. It’s a Wonderful life is not a christmas movie? and i’m the sub-human?

    Like

  28. “It seems entirely whacky to me that a trademark, once granted, can be simply and easily revoked by a vote of just 2 unelected bureaucrats. But we do live in Twilight Zone times.”

    Think of how much that brand is worth, and the government simply destroyed it on a whim…

    Like

    • Brent:

      Think of how much that brand is worth, and the government simply destroyed it on a whim…

      Exactly. I can’t believe the courts will uphold this. If 2 guys in the patent office can unilaterally and capriciously withdraw trademark protection that has existed for years and upon which business decisions and investments have been made, there is no point to issuing trademarks in the first place.

      The sentimental left will probably cheer this action, because it is pretty much exclusively interested in preferable results, in this case the elimination of an offensive (to them) team name. Anyone who cares about the rule of law and an objective process, however, not to mention the very purpose of having a patent office in the first place, should be appalled.

      Like

  29. Bad Santa.

    It’s a Wonderful life is set during Christmas but not about Christmas.

    Think about it.

    Like

    • McWing:

      It’s a Wonderful life is set during Christmas but not about Christmas.

      Christmas themes run throughout the movie.

      Name me another movie that culminates with the song Hark The Herald Angels Sing that isn’t a Christmas movie.

      Like

  30. Brent,

    Just read that the Trademark is still in force pending the outcome of the appeal. Apparently the last appeal took 8 years.

    Like

  31. Bad Santa.

    okay. we can work with that.

    Like

  32. “Brent Nyitray, on June 18, 2014 at 1:03 pm said:

    Think of how much that brand is worth, and the government simply destroyed it on a whim…”

    Sounds like a taking to me.

    Like

  33. Look, I’m really not committed to this. I was just taking the Progressive “side” for the sake of argument.

    However, Hark The Herald Angels Sing doesn’t appear to have been originally written as a Christmas Carol. That, er bastardization came later.

    http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hark!_The_Herald_Angels_Sing

    If there’s on thing Frank Capra knew it’s the origins of that poem.

    Your move.

    Like

    • McWing:

      Your move.

      From your own link (emphasis added): “”Hark! The Herald Angels Sing” is a Christmas carol…”

      Check mate.

      Like

  34. No, it’s a poem written in 1739 that was most definitely not written as a Christmas Carol.

    All we have here is source material. It was written in 1739 as a poem unrelated to Christmas. The movie emphasizes the WORDS OF THE POEM, not the melody. This is Capra’s nod to the movie NOT being a Christmas movie.

    Don’t you forfeit the game if you falsely claim check-mate?

    Like

    • McWing:

      The movie emphasizes the WORDS OF THE POEM, not the melody.

      Man, I would have thought you’d at least have seen the movie if you are going to say it isn’t a Christmas movie. We hear the melody, not the words, repeatedly before we ever hear the words. Janie (that’s George’s daughter, George being the main character) plays it on the piano over and over again, driving George crazy as he frets over the impending scandal looming over the old Bailey Building and Loan. It’s a key scene in the movie.

      Don’t you forfeit the game if you falsely claim check-mate?

      You presented the link as some kind of authority, not me. Now you want to disavow what it explicitly says? I hear Obama is looking for a new press secretary. You may want to look into it.

      Like

  35. In my house, It’s a Wonderful Life is an annual Thanksgiving tradition, thus a Thanksgiving movie. Or a pre-Christmas movie, if you will.

    “That’s a lie! Harry Bailey went to war! He got the Congressional Medal of Honor! He saved the lives of every man on that transport.”

    “Every man on that transport died! Harry wasn’t there to save them, because you weren’t there to save Harry.”

    Like

  36. “Let the mutherfuker burn!, on June 18, 2014 at 2:32 pm said:

    No, it’s a poem written in 1739 that was most definitely not written as a Christmas Carol. ”

    It’s in A Charlie Brown Christmas.

    Like

  37. Star Trek: Into Darkness was terrible. Especially the casting of Benedict Cumerbatch, but included the reversal of the Kahn ending, and Bones keeping around to experiment on with the magic blood of pasty British middle-eastern dictators who are genetically modified . . . and turning the Enterprise engineering section into a brewery. And Chris Pine. And . . .

    The first one was a weak but forgivable start, but the second was just bad. Hopefully the 3rd time will be the charm, with no more dues ex machine via emergency phone calls to old Spock.

    Like

  38. McWing: “I’ve never been more convinced of AGW.”

    You hate science.

    Like

  39. So, a cartoon, that premiered on television is now. “Christmas Movie?”

    What the hell is going on? Has everyone lost their mins?

    Like

  40. If Hillary runs, she’ll be, what? 2 years younger than Reagan was when he was first elected? I thought that was outrageously old for a potential president. Maybe that was just the 80s.

    Like

  41. Look, the problem with the second one was that we compare it to, perhaps, the greatest movie ever made. Anything would pale compared to that.

    In just going to pretend your 2nd paragraph doesn’t exist.

    Like

  42. @McWing: Karl Urban was an awesome bones. Underused in the 2nd movie, he was absolutely my favorite part in the first. Anyhoo, I saw Man of Steel in the theater instead of Into Darkness, and regretted the decision. Man of Steel was worse.

    It’s not a matter of comparing it to Kahn, it’s a matter of how it aped Kahn. It was just silly. And the casting of Benedict Cumerbatch as Kahn made no sense. The movie could have been improved just by casting, say, Benicio Del Toro as Kahn.

    Like

  43. Only if he wore a foam rubber chest.

    Like

  44. I see FB and lmsinca have bailed? Missed that. Ah, well. I became convinced a while back maintaining a neutral table would be practically impossible without financial incentives. That is, if it were our career to have moderated, fact-based discussions and rejoin lack of fact-based assertions with calm recitation of opposing facts, we could do it. If it’s recreation, it’s hard to maintain a commitment when somebody pushed your buttons or you push theirs. Alas.

    That being said, the Star Trek reboot was ass.

    😉

    Like

  45. @McWing: That was pure Ricardo. Dude knew how to pump those pecs.

    Like

  46. No shit. I stand in awe.

    Like

  47. It’s a Wonderful Life is the ideal pre-Christmas movie. It debuted on December 20th, making it reasonable to claim it as a Christmas movie, I think. That and the heavy emphasis on Christmas in the film. And gifts. And “rebirth”. And angels. And, anyway, Hark, the Herald Angels sing is, xmas carol or not, about the birth of Christ. Which is . . . Christmas.

    Ergo: Christmas movie.

    Also, Carl Switzer is in the movie. And who doesn’t love Alfalfa?

    Like

  48. Anyone else here read the Jack Reacher novels? Just curious. Listening to them all, one by one, and out of sequence. Love ’em.

    Like

  49. Predating Die Hard by 16 years, The Poseidon Adventure involved a Christmas tree as a major plot point.

    Like

  50. Asked how he achieved his chest for Kahn, Ricard Montalban said “Push ups. Lots of push ups.” Director Nicholas Meyer has been asked repeatedly if Montalban wore a prosthetic, and he says no: he was 62 but in awesome shape.

    Like

  51. Poseidon Adventure was released on December 12th. Ergo: a Christmas movie!

    Like

  52. The exchanges cited in this article are very instructive, but this statement from Rep. Michael Capuano just floors me.

    “Yeah, I’ve heard that before,” Capuano replied. “And I love ya, you know I support the agency, I don’t trust that answer from a governmental agency.”

    http://freebeacon.com/issues/cfpb-director-grilled-on-capitol-hill/

    “Baby, you know I love you. Why do you make me hit you?”

    Like

  53. For what it’s worth, my absence has absolutely nothing to do with political discussions and/or viewpoints–it has everything to do with the fact that 100% of the right-wing posters on this forum either tacitly or explicitly supported QB’s bigotry about gays.

    Like

  54. Scott, FFS, the melody is portrayed as annoying! The WORDS are portrayed a joyous! How can this not be clear? You seem intelligent, have I misjudged?

    It’s set during Christmas, it’s not about Christmas!

    Like

  55. I don’t believe QB hates gays or wants to discriminate against them.

    By your measure, if you voted for Obama in ’08 you knowingly voted for a bigot.

    Now who’s being naive [michi]?

    Gays can, and have always been able to marry.

    That accusation is slanderous and beneath you.

    Like

  56. Since when is a Germanic fertility symbol universally Christmas?

    Has no one read The Golden Bough?

    Like

  57. @michgoose: “For what it’s worth, my absence has absolutely nothing to do with political discussions and/or viewpoints–it has everything to do with the fact that 100% of the right-wing posters on this forum either tacitly or explicitly supported QB’s bigotry about gays.”

    Technically, I probably don’t support it. if it’s bigotry (I missed the original postings, probably, I’m such a transient). But I don’t know exactly what he said. Of course, I think I’m on record as being opposed to heterosexual marriage, so take that as you will.

    The libertarians support anti-gay bigotry? That doesn’t seem likely. BTW, condemning for tacit support is kind of lame. Not everybody can or should have every dog in every fight. Not everybody is up to it on that particular Thursday night, or whatever.

    Like

  58. I think It’s a Wonderful Life is about Christmas. The crux is the gift of George’s rebirth from an angel. Christmasy.

    Clarence: There is no George Bailey. You have no papers, no cards, no driver’s license, no 4-F card, no insurance policy…They’re not there, either.
    George: What?
    Clarence: Zuzu’s petals. You’ve been given a great gift, George. A chance to see what the world would be like without you.

    Like

  59. @McWing: “By your measure, if you voted for Obama in ’08 you knowingly voted for a bigot.”

    He oozed tacit support for the DOMA. No, wait, that was explicit. Nevermind. 😉

    Like

  60. “Hello, Bedford Falls! Merry Christmas! Merry Christmas, movie house! Merry Christmas, Emporium! Merry Christmas, you wonderful old Building and Loan! Hey! Merry Christmas, Mr. Potter!”

    Like

  61. Also, George’s love interest and eventual wife is named “Mary”.

    Just sayin’.

    Like

  62. That doesn’t seem likely.

    I take it back. Brent came right out and said he had no problem with gays or SSM.

    When somebody tries to explain to me that I just don’t understand QB’s dislike of gays, or that he’s not, technically, a homophobe because “homophobia” isn’t the correct term, that is (at the least) tacit support for his bigotry. I know exactly what his viewpoint is, I don’t need anybody else to jump in and interpret his words.

    Like

    • Mich:

      or what it’s worth, my absence has absolutely nothing to do with political discussions and/or viewpoints–it has everything to do with the fact that 100% of the right-wing posters on this forum either tacitly or explicitly supported QB’s bigotry about gays.

      The temptation to respond to this with a simple picture of a fire extinguisher is almost irresistible. Almost.

      I know exactly what his viewpoint is, I don’t need anybody else to jump in and interpret his words.

      Actually your characterization of him as a bigot and your references to his “dislike of gays” indicates pretty clearly to me that in fact you have no idea what his viewpoint is. I think it is pretty much a dead certainty that if you were offered $500 to provide an objective, nonjudgmental recap of his beliefs, you couldn’t do it. Regrettably you also seem to have no interest in understanding him, either. You refuse to consider, or are incapable of considering qb’s point of view in anything other than the crudest, most simplistic and unthinking terms.

      In fact, the bigotry charge is really nothing more than typical liberal projection. It is you who is engaged in real bigotry, ie utterly intolerant of qb’s beliefs about homosexual behavior and the effects of its normalization on society. These are beliefs that you think must be completely eliminated from polite society. And so you (mis)characterize them, stigmatize those who hold them with words like “homophobe” and “bigot” and “hater”, and even try to bully people who don’t explicitly reject them by declaring them to be “tacit” supporters of bigotry. These are not views to be discussed, debated, argued, subjected to evidential analysis. They are to be simply stomped out and removed completely from the conversation. That is the real bigotry playing out here.

      Like

      • Volokh on the Redskin trademark issue. After noting that all the Redskins have lost is the presumption of ownership over the trademark, ie they can still sue over unauthorized use but have a higher bar to prove ownership, he notes more generally:

        My tentative view is that the general exclusion of marks that disparage persons, institutions, beliefs, or national symbols should be seen as unconstitutional. Trademark registration, I think, is a government benefit program open to a wide array of speakers with little quality judgment. Like other such programs (such as broadly available funding programs, tax exemptions, or access to government property), it should be seen as a form of “limited public forum,” in which the government may impose content-based limits but not viewpoint-based ones. An exclusion of marks that disparage groups while allowing marks that praise those groups strikes me as viewpoint discrimination. But I’m not sure that courts will ultimately see this my way; so far they haven’t been inclined to do so, precisely because the exclusion of a mark from federal registration leaves people entirely free to use the mark.

        Like

  63. Kevin, all we can rely on is science, and science tells us that Die Hard and IAWL are not Christmas movies.

    Like

  64. @Michigoose: Well, I guess add me to the folks who aren’t big fans of “you can’t argue semantics or word definitions because the issues are so important”. Homophobia is an oft misused word meant to ascribe irrational fear to position that may be discriminatory or based on distaste or negative experiences or religious interpretation, but that aren’t fear.

    I have no issues with homosexuals and do not care about gay marriage. Used to be opposed to it, now I just don’t care. I think it’s inevitable, and the end results will not spell doom. Semantics I feel more strongly about.

    Like

  65. Emotion! I don’t feel like Die Hard is a Christmas movie. I totally feel like IAWL is a Christmas movie.

    Like

  66. Michi, has QB said he has an irrational fear of homosexuals? Has he said he hated homosexuals? If no, then he is not a homophobe or bigot.

    I cannot fathom how opposition to government recognition of SSM constitutes homophobia or bigotry.

    You may think QB is lying, if so, say it. We’re all adults here c

    Like

  67. Kevin, I have a “feeling” that The Big Lebowski is a Christmas movie. Is it?

    Like

  68. Kevin: you have just made my point. I never said that anyone else is a bigot, just that you support QB in his.

    McWing: go pound sand.

    Like

  69. And having angels in a movie along with a woman named Mary may make a movie about religion or religious themes but it most certainly goes not make it a Christmas movie.

    By that measure, every episode of a Touched by an Angel is a Christmas movie.

    Like

    • McWing:

      And having angels in a movie along with a woman named Mary may make a movie about religion or religious themes but it most certainly goes not make it a Christmas movie.

      This is nothing more than Christophobia and you are an anti-Christmas bigot.

      Like

  70. Your feelings are not valid the way mine are, obvious, McWing.

    “Kevin: you have just made my point. I never said that anyone else is a bigot, just that you support QB in his”

    Me personally? I’m not sure I follow. What does “supporting” look like, and what would I be doing if I was doing the right thing in this situation? Stipulating I’m not sure what he said that’s under contention.

    McWing: you’re really stretching it. IAWL is a Christmas movie. Set at Christmas, released at Christmas, redolent with Christmas themes and metaphors and references. Ergo: a Christmas movie.

    Like

  71. Anyone opposed to same-sex marriage is on the right path, IMHO. They just need to expand that to heterosexual marriage, too. 😉

    Like

  72. Kevin:

    I need to go take care of a few things.

    Like

  73. Complete non-sequitur and you know it!

    Besides, “I’m just as God made me.”

    Like

  74. How are we going to get fourteen people in a King Leisure bed?

    Like

  75. It must be weeks since there was a good round of recriminations and swan song posts at ATiM, shunnings, self-analyses, etc. Thank goodness the drought is broken. From the prior thread:

    QB as much as said he’s not interested in debating issues anymore because liberal opinion is essentially worthless. He’s entitled to that opinion but you have to admit it pretty much closes the door.

    Such remarkable power I apparently have. This does not quite accurately reflect my position, but I’m won’t try to clarify it now. I think lms wants or needs reasons to sign off, and so why not this one. It is almost a tradition.

    For what it’s worth, my absence has absolutely nothing to do with political discussions and/or viewpoints–it has everything to do with the fact that 100% of the right-wing posters on this forum either tacitly or explicitly supported QB’s bigotry about gays.

    The last and only resort of an intellectual weakling who can’t defend her own views. How pathetic.

    Scott gave a much more thoughtful response; he’s a better man than me or at least a more patient one.

    Like

  76. IOKIYAD

    Like

  77. Meh, he probably supports SSM so alls forgiven

    Like

  78. How are we going to get fourteen people in a King Leisure bed?

    The best Christmas movie of all!

    Like

  79. “Kevin S. Willis, on June 18, 2014 at 3:02 pm said:

    That being said, the Star Trek reboot was ass.”

    I’m confident Abrams will screw up Star Wars even more.

    Like

  80. You people are sick. Seek help.

    Like

    • You have opinions of movies. They’re pretty much ’70s opinions, but hey, they’re what you’ve got. Why would you think that would be interesting to discuss?

      Like

  81. Is bad taste in movies a pre-existing condition?
    Can you be forced to screen Episode I if it violates your religious beliefs?

    Like

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