Morning Report – Lousy housing starts report 6/17/14

Vital Statistics:

 

Last Change Percent
S&P Futures 1925.5 -3.7 -0.19%
Eurostoxx Index 3262.3 0.8 0.03%
Oil (WTI) 106.4 -0.5 -0.45%
LIBOR 0.231 0.000 0.17%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 80.62 0.149 0.19%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 2.63% 0.03%
Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA 106.3 -0.3
Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA 105.2 -0.1
BankRate 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 4.2

 

Markets are lower this morning after housing starts disappoint. Bonds and MBS are down on the CPI data. The FOMC meeting starts today.
Consumer prices rose .4% in May versus expectations of a .2% rise. Ex food and energy, they were up .3%. On a year-over-year basis, prices are up 2%, which is more or less in line with the Fed’s targets.
Housing starts came in a touch over 1 million versus expectations of 1.03 million. Building permits were much weaker than expected, at 991k vs 1.05 million expected. We need housing construction for any sort of meaningful “recovery summer.” It is looking more and more like that isn’t going to happen. Permits fell off particularly hard in the notoriously volatile multi-fam segment.
Part of the issue with the housing market is the first time homebuyer. While the issues of student loan debt and a lousy job market are considered the main driver, there are myths that just refuse to die. According to research firm Zelman and Associates, people believe on average that lenders require a down payment of 11% to 15%. 39% or respondents believe you need a 15% down payment or more. The industry needs to do more to get the word out that there are programs like FHA and VA which require little to no down payment.
Yesterday, the IMF downgraded its estimate for 2014 US GDP growth to 2% and said that rates will stay at zero until late 2015. Right now, the Eurodollar futures are pegging the Fed Funds rate to be 75 basis points by the end of 2015. This forecast is lower than the Fed’s own forecast. Note the Fed will release new forecasts for unemployment, inflation, and GDP growth in the FOMC release tomorrow.
There has been a surprisingly low amount of grumbling from the Left over the Medtronic / Covidien transaction – where Medtronic is buying Ireland-based Covidien basically for the tax domicile. Corporate taxes in Ireland are 12%, versus the statutory tax rate of 35% plus state and local taxes which can push it to 40%. Ireland, like most other countries, has a territorial tax system where it only taxes income earned in its country. The U.S. taxes all overseas earnings once they are repatriated. Plus, obamacare slapped a 3.8% surtax on medical devices. It turns out that stocks that pursue these tax avoidance strategies outperform. Go figure.
Scratching your head about why the 10 year bond is rallying even as QE is being withdrawn and the economy is heating up? Wrap your head around this: Japanese consumer price inflation is rising at 3.4% per year. The yield on their 10 year bond? 73.5 basis points. The Bank of Japan has been buying JGBs in their own form of QE and has bought enough to effectively corner the market. When you talk about US bonds being in a bubble, they are nothing compared to Japan’s. File this one in the “market can stay irrational longer than you can remain solvent.” file. Right now markets all over the world are pricing in a 100% probability that central banks worldwide can stick the landing and return us to a normal interest rate environment without any major dislocations. If you are a bond investor, understand this: Central banks all over the world are attempting to create inflation. At some point they will succeed. Inflation won’t matter until it matters. And then it will be the only thing that matters.

55 Responses

  1. Shit happens!

    But when we get Single Payer, that’ll run smooooooooth!

    Like

  2. your tinfoil hat is leaking, bagger!

    Like

  3. I wish! It’d put the fire out!

    Like

  4. A friend fell and landed face first on the sidewalk. walking while texting. missed the curb.

    ban sidewalks.

    Like

  5. Ban walking!

    Mandate guides!

    Like

  6. Require pedestrian helmets. If it saves one life, it is worth it. Don’t you care about the children?

    Like

  7. I’m a bagger! We’re all Ehrlichian Malthusians.

    Soylent Green is the children the Bagger’s have sacrificed to the alter of Gaia!

    Like

  8. Warden: So, why do you want to be a guard here?
    Homer: I believe the children are the future… Unless we stop them now!
    Warden: Welcome aboard. (Holds a nightstick) This ends for beatin’. This ends for holdin’.
    Homer: When does training start?
    Warden: It just finished.

    Or

    Lindsey Naegle: I dream of an America with nudity and F-words on network TV. Where the whole world doesn’t stop because a school bus did. Children are the future… today belongs to me!
    Meeting Crowd: [with their fists raised] YAY!
    Homer Simpson: You can’t change the rules in the middle of the game! We never would’ve had these kids if we thought we had to pay for them. Promises were made!

    Like

  9. “Moments later, Kasich reiterated his belief that God wants the government to spend more taxpayer money on entitlement programs.”

    yep. we’re boned.

    Like

  10. Bell Knox advances Scott’s argument on the university tuition/financial aid racket.

    “To make matters worse, my income now makes me ineligible for the $13,000 in aid I was receiving. My bill for next year will be a staggering $62,000. And I will pay this all on my own; the financial aid office does not care that I am legally financially independent. They view it as my parent’s responsibility to foot the bill.”

    http://www.salon.com/2014/06/17/duke_porn_star_belle_knox_has_lost_her_financial_aid/

    Yes, thank you.

    “Government must stop the flow of money to schools in order to get tuition rates under control again. That means being honest about the fact that not every child should go to college.”

    Her full essay that was exerpted:

    http://time.com/2873280/duke-porn-star-belle-knox-college-cost/

    Like

  11. She gonna taste the War on Women we’ve been talking about.

    It’s cool though, sacrifices hafta be made.

    Like

  12. I always find it heartening that when people have to pay their own bills, they come around to our way of thinking.

    Like

  13. JNC — not sure if you use it, but the DMV sent a cease and desist letter to Uber. I wrote my state delegate and senator. there was a lot of “rent seeking” and “regulatory capture” in it.

    I did get a response that was more positive than anticipated — basically recognizing that the regs need to catch up. I guess un-regulated is just a too much.

    Like

  14. I always find it heartening that when people have to pay their own bills, they come around to our way of thinking.

    Really? We know a lot of people who pay their own bills, and have their entire lives, that aren’t libertarian or conservative.

    The caricatures are really flying today!

    Like

  15. Maybe, but I suspect that your position on tenant vs landlord rights might be somewhat different if you weren’t actually landlord.

    Like

  16. Still, lmsinca you have to admin that this sentence could have been written by myself, Brent, Scott or Nova:

    “That also means making students who can’t afford tuition out of pocket find funding in the private market, where lenders are too judicious to lend someone $150,000 to get a BA in underwater basketweaving.”

    Note the evident disdain for the underwater visual arts students.

    Like

  17. Hey guys, I’m wondering if anyone would like to take over the domain name yearly renewal fee. I doubt I’ll be around much anymore and it seems kind of silly for me to keep paying for it. It’s only $15 so I probably seem like a cheapskate but the rest of you “have” been getting this venture free the last several years.

    Scott actually has the larger expense, the upgrade, but he fits in much better here than I do and probably enjoys the experience more. 😉

    Hahahaha, jnc got me thinking.

    I won’t close it down if no one volunteers, but it seems sort of silly for a liberal to pay for a largely libertarian blog.

    Like

    • lms:

      Scott actually has the larger expense, the upgrade, but he fits in much better here than I do and probably enjoys the experience more. 😉

      I enjoyed it more when there were more liberals willing to engage in serious debate about things. You were the last one standing. Now I guess I’ll have to content myself with trying to convince jnc that we bankers are not criminals and Mark that the law is not an end in itself. Kind of like fiddling while Rome burns.

      I won’t close it down if no one volunteers, but it seems sort of silly for a liberal to pay for a largely libertarian blog.

      Personally I would prefer a blog environment where I was one of the few non-liberals to one where my view dominated. Hence my time spent at PL (and the CNN and NYT boards before that). I guess I’ve spent so much of my life in the political minority (college, New York City, the UK) that I thrive on it.

      Like

  18. Sure, I’ll spring for it. But as an anarcho-syndicalist commune, this really should be brought to the current executive in the bi-weekly meeting.

    http://www.sacred-texts.com/neu/mphg/mphg.htm

    Like

  19. can it be paid in bitcoins?

    Like

  20. Case in point, I barely understand anarcho-syndicalist and the Monty Python reference went right over my head………………LOL. Between being old, liberal and female, I think I landed in the wrong space!

    Like

  21. You haven’t seen Monty Python and the Holy Grail?

    Like

  22. Of course I’ve seen it…………..but I still don’t quite get the connection between that and this. Plus it’s been a long time since I’ve seen it and I don’t relive it everyday like the rest of you………….lol

    Like

  23. jnc, let me research the transfer and I’ll get back to you. Is your email associated with this site still a usable one? I remember it was a little complicated when I took it over.

    Like

  24. Yes, it works just fine.

    The connection is on how self governing organizations full of factious people tend to behave:

    “ARTHUR: Then who is your lord?
    WOMAN: We don’t have a lord.
    ARTHUR: What?
    DENNIS: I told you. We’re an anarcho-syndicalist commune. We take
    it in turns to act as a sort of executive officer for the week.
    ARTHUR: Yes.
    DENNIS: But all the decision of that officer have to be ratified
    at a special biweekly meeting.
    ARTHUR: Yes, I see.
    DENNIS: By a simple majority in the case of purely internal affairs,–
    ARTHUR: Be quiet!
    DENNIS: –but by a two-thirds majority in the case of more–
    ARTHUR: Be quiet! I order you to be quiet!
    WOMAN: Order, eh — who does he think he is?
    ARTHUR: I am your king!
    WOMAN: Well, I didn’t vote for you.
    ARTHUR: You don’t vote for kings.
    WOMAN: Well, ‘ow did you become king then?
    ARTHUR: The Lady of the Lake,
    [angels sing]
    her arm clad in the purest shimmering samite, held aloft Excalibur
    from the bosom of the water signifying by Divine Providence that I,
    Arthur, was to carry Excalibur.
    [singing stops]
    That is why I am your king!
    DENNIS: Listen — strange women lying in ponds distributing swords
    is no basis for a system of government. Supreme executive power
    derives from a mandate from the masses, not from some farcical
    aquatic ceremony.
    ARTHUR: Be quiet!
    DENNIS: Well you can’t expect to wield supreme executive power
    just ’cause some watery tart threw a sword at you!
    ARTHUR: Shut up!
    DENNIS: I mean, if I went around sayin’ I was an empereror just
    because some moistened bint had lobbed a scimitar at me they’d
    put me away!
    ARTHUR: Shut up! Will you shut up!
    DENNIS: Ah, now we see the violence inherent in the system.
    ARTHUR: Shut up!
    DENNIS: Oh! Come and see the violence inherent in the system!
    HELP! HELP! I’m being repressed!
    ARTHUR: Bloody peasant!
    DENNIS: Oh, what a give away. Did you here that, did you here that,
    eh? That’s what I’m on about — did you see him repressing me,
    you saw it didn’t you?”

    Like

  25. Got it! 🙂

    factious Is that fractious or facetious…………could go either way.

    Like

  26. BTW, I emailed you with an explanation and will get to work on the transfer next week. Thanks

    Like

  27. This Benghazi trial is gonna get interesting. Heard he was interrogated prior to mirandizing.

    Like

  28. Scott, I’ve enjoyed our debates over the last 5 years (yikes). I prefer an environment where there are lots of different opinions and people don’t act as though political opponents are evil or need to be destroyed. It happened at the PL too. Someone always does it and it comes from all political sides of the rivalry. We never quite got where I envisioned our success at communicating a little differently as a group, but at times it’s been pretty damn good. I just don’t feel like I can thrive here anymore, but will check in occasionally to say hi at the very least.

    This wasn’t actually meant to be a swan song……….LOL

    Maybe I’ll see something that intrigues me again……………..I’ll keep my eyes open.

    Edited for clarity

    Like

  29. Personally I would prefer a blog environment where I was one of the few non-liberals to one where my view dominated.

    I have no idea what the problem is. You just have such a winning debating style. They (we? I?) must be afraid of having the scales fall from their/our/my eyes from being exposed to the truth.

    Like

    • yello:

      You just have such a winning debating style.

      Thanks! That really means a lot, especially coming from you.

      They (we? I?) must be afraid of having the scales fall from their/our/my eyes from being exposed to the truth.

      I suspect they each have their own distinct reasons for departing ATiM. But for those who remain at PL instead of ATiM it is probably the case that they prefer “safer” environs where liberal opinion dominates.

      Like

  30. See QB, now you’re being funny……………sort of. But generally I think you mean what you say. It’s exhausting trying to hang out here and share an opinion. I’m not afraid of you guys, it’s just not fun. I wanted to come back but I really just think you guys, with the possible exception of Scott and maybe jnc, don’t really want to share the space with liberals.

    That’s fine, I’m pretty sure I can find something more constructive to do with my free time. It’s no great loss to ATiM and if JNC takes over my responsibility, as minor as it is, I’ll feel better about it. I’ve never been one to try and hang on when something’s over although I did with ATiM for probably too long already. It’s hard to give up on something you started with such great expectations.

    Like

  31. http://freebeacon.com/blog/obama-goes-there-refers-to-soccer-as-football/

    President Obama referred to the sport of soccer as “football” during a press conference in Brussels on Thursday, raising questions about his commitment to America.

    I just found the whole thing — which is clearly satire — to be hilarious.

    Like

    • Was there still a question about Obama’s commitment to America? Campaigns in Berlin as citizen of the world, opens term with world apology tour, declares we are just as exceptional as any other country, now blaspheming football in the home of the globalist Eurocrats. Case closed.

      Like

    • Anything in the Free Beacon attempting to be satire runs the risk of running afoul of Poe’s Law. This is the paper trying to make hay out of the fact that Hillary Clinton once won a criminal defense case.

      Like

      • yello:

        This is the paper trying to make hay out of the fact that Hillary Clinton once won a criminal defense case.

        Right, that is precisely the Beacon’s point. No presidential candidate should ever have won a criminal defense, of any kind, for any reason. Ever.

        yello and Obama, two of the greatest slayers of strawmen in history.

        Like

  32. Don’t forget the FreeBeacon’s lead on exposing Walkergate.

    Plus Kate Upton stories.

    God, what a closed minded fool!

    Like

  33. The got the story from those TeaBaggers at Daily Kos.

    From 2008.

    Keerist you’re a misogynistic moron.

    Like

  34. I suspect they each have their own distinct reasons for departing ATiM. But for those who remain at PL instead of ATiM it is probably the case that they prefer “safer” environs where liberal opinion dominates.

    Hardly, given the presence of MindNumbRobot, SnarkBait, ArcX (or whatever his handle du jour is), Jake Dort, etc. Not to mention that the likes of Shrink, Chris Fox (Cao), Reaganand30Years are at least as irritating from the left.

    It is simply that the Venn diagram of common views is virtually the null set. It’s difficult to discuss (not argue) ideas about entitlement reform with somebody who thinks there should be no entitlements. Many of the arguments put forth here suggest that the road to ruin started prior to the first world war.

    As for being afraid of other views, it’s why I’m a regular reader of conservative thinking (op-eds, WSJ, Economist) and an avid C-SPAN listener. I like a diversity of news sources without the bickering.

    Toodles!

    Like

    • FB:

      It’s difficult to discuss (not argue) ideas about entitlement reform with somebody who thinks there should be no entitlements.

      Which is another way of saying that you really don’t want to discuss (argue over, whatever) your premises/first principles. You want to be around those who already agree with you in principle, but just might disagree over the details. And it is most definitely the case that, increasingly, we (left and right) do not share premises/first principles. I think any real discussion must start there. Unfortunately there isn’t anyone on the left from our original group equally interested.

      Many of the arguments put forth here suggest that the road to ruin started prior to the first world war.

      Wilson certainly has a lot to answer for.

      As for being afraid of other views…

      That’s yello’s take, not mine.

      Like

  35. Keerist you’re a misogynistic moron.

    And that is exactly the level of discourse that has made this enclave so much more delightful than the rock-throwing rabble at the Plum Line.

    Like

  36. And that is exactly the level of discourse that has made this enclave so much more delightful than the rock-throwing rabble at the Plum Line.

    Un hunh.

    Now we’re pretending we don’t get sarcasm.

    Awwww. I’m sorry, I had forgotten your delicate sensitivities.

    #punishMeWithSex

    Like

  37. McWing, no one here has delicate sensitivities but your #sarcasmAllTheTime doesn’t invite an honest or worthwhile response. That’s part of the problem. Honestly, you’re part of the problem.

    Like

  38. I fundamentally disagree. It begs for a response. When have I not responded to a challenge with a reasoned response?

    I post stuff all day long that can and should be challenged and worthy of debate. Why it’s interpreted as some sort of “don’t challenge this or you’ll be punished” absolutely escapes me.

    Why not, if you’re interested, read a provided link and make a case?

    I do not know, and I mean this sincerely, what an Inviting Environment looks like.

    If I find something interesting and post a link to it and some commentary, what should it look like to make it inviting. This stuff is beyond me. I know none of you are bad, stupid, evil or ill-informed so I don’t understand why sarcasm, or a strongly asserted opinion makes it bad.

    Like

  39. McWing, I don’t think it really matters anymore, but your comments generally keep me from pursuing the links. I remember a few weeks ago you asked for my or michi’s opinion on something that you linked, I can’t even remember exactly what it was now, but I went there and even commented………………no discussion ensued.

    I don’t really care anymore. As I said, AFAIC you guys own the place now so you can literally do what you want with it. Maybe yello, FB and Michi will still be around but I see no point in my being here.

    It’s not just you btw. QB as much as said he’s not interested in debating issues anymore because liberal opinion is essentially worthless. He’s entitled to that opinion but you have to admit it pretty much closes the door.

    Anyway, I’m sure you guys will find plenty to talk/complain about without me around and as I said, it’s only me, I bet the others will still drop in and you guys can have your usual “love fest”.

    I decided if I’m leaving anyway, which wasn’t actually my original intent, I might as well be honest on my way out the door.

    I hope you guys keep the lights on!

    Like

  40. I just fundamentally disagree Lms. The more one perceives that a door is closed, the more one should push back.

    What would an inviting look like? It’s not a trick question. Dailykos and WaPo are/were inviting forums to me but the sites got to unwieldy to navigate for argument purposes. I like to read right-wing sites but I never comment there, what’s the point?

    Like

  41. McWing, sarcasm only breeds more sarcasm, which is why you and yello have such a stellar communicating style. If that’s what you guys want, then that’s fine, but I don’t need to stick around to read it.

    We disagree on pretty much everything so this is just more of the same. I don’t have time to play these kinds of games and they’ve gotten boring. I see no purpose in pushing back against the doors that qb has closed here for discussion purposes.

    I like to argue as much as the next guy, as I think I’ve proven over the years, but this is pointless. If I’m wrong…………….oh well. There’s nothing really lost to you guys as you can carry on as you see fit, I’ll just be another clueless casualty.

    Like

  42. @lmsinca: “Really? We know a lot of people who pay their own bills, and have their entire lives, that aren’t libertarian or conservative.”

    Having to pay your own bills doesn’t automatically make one a conservative or a libertarian, but it does change their perspective in regards to what money is worth, and how they didn’t really appreciate it when their parents footed the bill for everything. 😉

    Also, having to pay the bills is useful in terms of keeping pricing in the real world. Subsidies almost always inflate prices. 3rd party payers/subsidies that inject a a layer between payor and payee tend to make things more expensive without adding value, no matter who you vote for.

    Like

  43. Scott – You fundamentally misunderstand the concept of debate. It is not to convince the opposing advocate, it is to convince the audience. Discussion would be to exchange ideas, which is the reason Imsinca and Kevin set up this little spot on the intertubes. You then set out to systematically alienate anybody who disagrees with you. I remember when you contended that this was not a conservative blog. Now you complain that liberals can’t handle your dazzling intellect.

    You have some fundamental principles. They’re pretty much 19th century principles, but hey, they’re what you’ve got. Why would you think that would be interesting to discuss? I think there should be entitlements so that older people have a comfortable existence after they are no longer able to work. As far as I can tell, you don’t. What is there to debate?

    BB

    Like

    • FB:

      You then set out to systematically alienate anybody who disagrees with you.

      Yes! You sure pegged me. That is exactly what I “set out” to do from the very beginning.

      Now you complain that liberals can’t handle your dazzling intellect.

      Why do you find it necessary to lie about things I say, virtually every time you address me? It is a very interesting phenomenon.

      Why would you think that would be interesting to discuss?

      Different things interest different people. As I mentioned, some people prefer to talk with people who already agree with them in principle. Apparently you are one of them. (But that, of course, leads to the question why you keep coming back here to address me and lie about the things I say. An enduring mystery.)

      I, on the other hand, am interested in talking with pretty much anyone, whether they agree with me on first principles (e.g. jnc, nova) or not (mark, lms, ashot, even you). But when we don’t agree on principles, it is discussion (debate, whatever) of that which interests me. Arguing over the finer details of just how much wealth re-distribution the federal government should engage in when I don’t think it should engage in any doesn’t hold a lot of interest to me.

      I think there should be entitlements so that older people have a comfortable existence after they are no longer able to work. As far as I can tell, you don’t. What is there to debate?

      Lots. Like who is going to provide for this “comfortable existence” you desire? Why them and not someone else (like you)? Who will be provided with this “comfortable existence”? Why them and not others? What are the effects (economic, societal, cultural) of forcibly taking from some people in order to provide others with this “comfortable existence”? Where should the decision come from for what constitutes a “comfortable existence” and how much will be taken in order to provide it? Local government, state government, federal government? Why? These are just a few of the topics which could be debated (discussed, whatever) if you were interested. But, apparently, you find it more interesting to lie about things I say. C’est la vie.

      (How’m I doing? You alienated enough to go away again?)

      Like

  44. Why you think people are so incapable of planning for themselves that we all have to be forced into a Ponzi scheme to provide one?

    Or,

    Why people should not have to live with the consequences of their actions?

    Aren’t those worthy of debate?

    At this point isn’t the correct response, “Somalia?”

    Like

  45. FB is a typical liberal whose opinions are based on emotion and whose understanding of reason is severly limited (to the rationalistic world of science). This is why, for all his vast intellectual ego, he is so lacking in depth and substance and sees no point in discussion of ideas. When he says that there is no point, he means it, in a profound sense. Michi is the same. You either share their sentiments about nice things like equality and fairness, or you are stuck in the 19th century or a benighted bigot.

    They can’t give any reasoned defense or even account of their positions, because they are unexamined and based purely on feelings. They have a few crude “intellectual” tools with which to tear down ideas, but they have no reasoned means of justifying what their feelings tell them is right. Hence, they can deconstruct marriage by stripping it of its core and defining characteristic, and when they can’t defend what is left in any way consistent with their own primitive technique, they just call you a bigot. That is the limit of their reasoning ability and the end of “discussion.”

    Discussing the assumptions underlying their positions, their consistency, their grounding–these are all pointless and meaningless exercises to such liberals, “semantics” and obsession with definitions. If you try to interrogate their assumptions, you are only trying to shield your bigotry. Their feelings condemn your position, so your position is wrong. They reliably resort to straw men and question begging because these really are the only “intellectual” tools they have, the sum of reasoning that liberals like FB know, all they think there is in the world. They literally are unreasoning and don’t believe in reason. Hence, trying to engage them in reasoned discussion is a fool’s errand.

    And that in a nutshell is why ATiM went the way it did.

    Like

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