Morning Report – More mixed economic data 5/30/14

Vital Statistics:

Last Change Percent
S&P Futures 1911.2 2.1 0.11%
Eurostoxx Index 3240.5 -5.7 -0.18%
Oil (WTI) 102.9 0.2 0.19%
LIBOR 0.227 0.000 -0.11%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 80.45 -0.121 -0.15%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 2.44% 0.00%
Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA 106.8 0.0
Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA 106 0.1
BankRate 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 4.13


Markets are down small after some disappointing consumption data this morning. Bonds are taking a breather and are down small.
Personal Incomes rose .3% in April, while spending fell .1%. Inflation remains in check. The income number was in line with Street expectations, while the spending number was not. March’s spending number was revised upward from .9% to 1.0%. University of Michigan Consumer Confidence ticked up slightly to 81.9, although it came in lower than expectations.
The ISM Milwaukee report leaped to 63.5 from 47.3 a month ago, while the Chicago Purchasing Manager’s Index increased from 63 to 65.5. These numbers beat expectations handily. April has had some very divergent economic indicators, with the weak industrial data points to some of these other strong indicators.
Refis dropped to 37% of all closed loans in April, according to Ellie Mae. Average FICOs ticked up a point to 726. Average days to close a loan fell to 39.
With rates falling over the past month or two, where are we going to get a wave of refis? The conventional wisdom is 4% mortgage rates. Remember, however the concept of prepayment burnout, which means that each successive dip in rates has less of an effect on refinance activity, mainly because the pool of people with a refinancable mortgage shrinks. That said, home price appreciation is counteracting that effect as people who were underwater last year and unable to refinance are able to take advantage of it this time around.
More speculation on what is going on in the bond market. Interestingly, according to Commitment of Traders data, speccies are increasing short exposure – the bears are fading the rally, not capitulating. Interestingly, the Fed’s balance sheet actually shrunk over the past week – not by a lot – but still it is surprising. At the end of the day, absent some sort of valid technical explanation of the strength, you have to believe the stock market is telling you one thing and the bond market is telling you another.

29 Responses

  1. That’s our Juicebox!


  2. Shinseki falls on his sword


  3. She, like most women, is stupid.


  4. You can’t trust states to manage school lunches – a Federal solution is the only way it could work. Otherwise you would have a race to the bottom as people leave states where they don’t have pizza and move to places that do.


  5. I did.

    Nothing as good as public school pizza. Translucent mozzerella like cheese product is the shits. Yo.


  6. See McCain’s age was a problem because he’d been tortured into insanity by the North Vietnamese.

    Old women are stupid, yes, but not cause of age.

    In conclusion, you’re a bagger misogynist.


  7. Ezra Klein has a good piece on the meta problems associated with President Obama’s approach to running the government.


  8. Slate rips on National Review for not being reverent enough with Maya Angelou’s death.


  9. Also on the VA:

    “Shinseki said Friday that initial findings from an internal review directed by the president also showed long waits for care at VA facilities, and that some waiting lists had been doctored to make it appear waiting times were not as long.

    “I said when this situation began weeks to months ago, that I thought the problem was limited and isolated because I believed that. I no longer believe that. It is systemic,” he said.”

    “How the VA developed its culture of coverups
    Once a bureaucratic success story, the agency began to hide its problems from those in Washington.

    Written by David A. Fahrenthold
    Published on May 30, 2014”


  10. Whatever one thinks of Sterling, this strikes me as an abuse of the “mental incapacity” provisions of the law.


    • jnc:

      Whatever one thinks of Sterling, this strikes me as an abuse of the “mental incapacity” provisions of the law.

      When I heard about this this morning, I was wondering to myself how this “mental incapacity” was determined, and by who. The article says that the rules of the trust did not require a legal determination. How is that possible?


  11. I thought juicer’s explainer to be sub-par.

    Serious question though,

    8. Obama can be curiously passive when he talks about the failures of the government he runs. “The federal government does a lot of things really well,” Obama said in a November press conference about HealthCare.Gov. “One of the things it does not do well is information technology procurement. You know, this is kind of a systematic problem that we have across the board.”

    What does the government do really well? I literally can think of nothing.


  12. Like

  13. We’re in the best of hands.


  14. The Libs in my twitter feed believe in a conspiracy wherein D and R politicians have conspired to fuck up VA so that it can be privatized.

    If it weren’t for the Kochs, the VA would be fan-fucking-tactic.

    Cause, < SP


  15. Thank God!

    A country that can put a man on the moon can surely force me at gunpoint to pay for sex reassignment surgery.


  16. “She, like most women, is stupid.”

    Congratulations for presenting a perfect stereotype of mysogeny.



  17. It’s no stereotype. I am a misogynist. What of it?


  18. Boy, I bet that cake will taste good. Nothing like eating something prepared by the unwilling.


    • McWing:

      Boy, I bet that cake will taste good. Nothing like eating something prepared by the unwilling.

      Exactly. This is why it is obvious that the point of these suits is not to get access to a service, but is instead to punish politically incorrect thought.


  19. It’s no stereotype. I am a misogynist. What of it?

    That those who claim to be rational conservatives don’t bother calling you on such crap.



  20. Well, I’m now duly shamed.

    Plus, women are evil.


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