Morning Report – NVR disappoints 04/21/14

Vital Statistics:

Last Change Percent
S&P Futures 1862.5 4.6 0.25%
Eurostoxx Index 3155.8 16.6 0.53%
Oil (WTI) 104.4 0.0 0.05%
LIBOR 0.226 -0.002 -0.88%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 79.89 0.042 0.05%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 2.70% -0.02%
Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA 105 -0.6
Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA 104.1 0.2
RPX Composite Real Estate Index 200.7 -0.2
BankRate 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 4.36


Markets are higher this morning on no real news. Bonds and MBS are up.
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index came in at .2, in line with expectations. The Index of Leading Economic Indicators rebounded to .8. Perhaps this year will be the end of the “recovery summer” running joke.
Thursday’s big increase in rates were a bit of a head-scratcher, given that there were no big economic reports on Thursday. Chalk it up to low liquidity in the markets as senior traders took the day off and instructed their junior traders to stay out of the way.
Lots of earnings this week, with some of the market heavyweights reporting. On Thursday, we will hear from homebuilders D.R. Horton and PulteGroup. Hopefully they will give some insight on how the spring selling season is shaping up.
Washington-DC based homebuilder NVR reported lower than expected earnings, partially based on a reversal of some previously recognized tax deductions.  Orders fell 5%, while backlog was down 3% on a unit basis but up 4% on a dollar basis. Gross margins increased to 18% as average selling prices rose 5%. NVR doesn’t do conference calls, so we’ll have to wait until Thursday to get some more color on the market environment. The stock is down 6.5%.
Ocwen is putting all future mortgage servicing deals on hold, after attracting the scrutiny of the New York Attorney General’s office. Everything is on hold until people figure out what Schneiderman wants.

46 Responses

  1. *sneaking past McWing*



  2. With the debt overhang, The Abomination and crippling environmental regulations on energy production a recovery will never occur. We are now in a shitty new normal.

    tors rebounded to .8. Perhaps this year will be the end of the “recovery summer” running joke.


  3. MIchi, Wednesday is open for me for lunch or dinner.


  4. jnc, dinner it is! I’ll e-mail you.


  5. Full Democracy corps memo that’s getting the headline treatment recently:

    “Democratic strategists have made a blunt declaration in an election-year memo, according to AP, “Don’t talk about the economic recovery. It’s a political loser.” Stan Greenberg, James Carville and others wrote that in head-to-head polling tests the mere mention of the word “recovery” is trumped by a Republican assertion that the Obama administration has had six years to get the economy moving and its policies haven’t worked.”


  6. J, that’s funny. Plus a little wish dating on their part the R’s ignore the Abomination in favor of some ubiquitous economic message.


  7. why. why do I beat my head against the wall. who knew that the ACA would cost more to cover more people, and that was the basis for passage in 2009. i mean, that’s totally what I remember from them.


  8. It was a noble lie to get people covered, bagger.


  9. that’s just what bernie wrote. not in those words, but in meaning.


  10. Also, I love the economic narrative: the economy sucks because of the 1%, not due to our anti-business regulations


  11. there’s a truism for you.


  12. What confuses me as a booger-eating pooh-flinger is Progressives telling me the Abomination is really a conservative concept and then, in the same breath, defending this complete fuck-up of a shit sandwich as if their life depended on it.


  13. Bernie is probably the most deceitful person at PL.


    • True re Bernie. He is the most dishonest. Also only about 1/10 as intelligent as he thinks. Perhaps because he is the most ideologically blind person I have ever encountered.


  14. “novahockey, on April 21, 2014 at 11:40 am said:

    why. why do I beat my head against the wall.”

    Welcome to the club.

    “Det. William ‘Bunk’ Moreland: [to McNulty] There you go. Givin’ a fuck when it ain’t your turn to give a fuck. ”


  15. Worth a note:

    “More homeowners no longer need to be in foreclosure, and they may not even know it
    By Dina ElBoghdady
    April 18 at 12:59 pm

    An increasingly larger share of homes in the foreclosure process have positive equity.”


  16. So…



  17. The retort to failing to expand Medicaid = killing people is how much blood is on Democrat’s hands because they didn’t extend it further?


  18. well, they didn’t expand it further cause of the Koch bros.


  19. “the problem of actually cutting Medicare will loom larger, and the promised-but-postponed offsets will have to actually be pursued.”


    oh wait, he’s serious.


  20. Medicaid provides NO value.

    It’s the thought that counts, bagger!


  21. See, you can’t fix this with MOAR regulation. Either stop the manipulated program altogether or give the beneficiary a set amount of cash so they can either shop it around or spend it on tootskie. There will always be fraud and corruption in government spending. There is no “savings” to be had by reigning fraud and corruption. What’s more, fraud and corruption are corrosive to individual faith in government (which should be very low as a default) which then starts to effect compliance with government in other ways.

    Long story longer, fraud and corruption are inevitable and corrosive. There’s only one way to minimize it and that’s to reduce the spending and power of government.


  22. Not to go all Godwin but the perfect way to understand Bernie to to know that he would be the Ralph Fiennes character in Schindler’s List.


  23. Gender bias in climate change and MMfA is ON IT!

    The gender imbalance among those quoted on the climate crisis is striking, particularly since women around the world are more vulnerable to the dangers of climate disruption and among the most active in the movement for solutions. Globally, existing inequalities give women less access and less control over resources and make them more susceptible to the worst effects of extreme weather. The last thing the media should do is amplify that divide by only covering one set of perspectives.

    That’s how you level the playing field haters!

    Coming soon to PL. Remember, Hack Sargent will print Anything.


  24. Brent, I presume you’ve seen this.

    “Why a government agency won’t lower mortgage fees for borrowers
    By Dina ElBoghdady
    April 21 at 2:27 pm”


  25. She could have answered it with ” We blew up in the crisis because we were underpricing the risks on these loans.”


  26. You can have utopia too if you submit to central planning and accept a model of supreme waste!

    What the fuck is wrong with you?


  27. Moar Republican War on Women!

    I’m sorry but Attkisson has some serious temperament issues.

    Hysteria? Over emotional? PMS?

    That’s some sweet misogyny.



    • Josh Marshall’s description of media matters demonstrates his own delusional hackishness. More proof that liberals seem to get dumber over time.


  28. Citizens of Detroit vote to elect people who over promise. Why should I be forced (well, the Fed’s monetized debt that will eventually be defaulted on,
    But you get the idea) to pay for their mistakes?

    Blow me.


  29. Do you think the City Attorney actually believes this?

    Irwindale’s city attorney expressed confusion about Tran’s reaction to the government’s harassment of his company. “This seems very extreme,” City Attorney Fred Galante said. “It’s disappointing given that [air quality officials] have explained that there are readily available solutions.”


  30. Just don’t call him a misogynist!

    I’m one and I’ve never seen him at the meetings!



    • Instead of Occupying Wall Street, apparently they should be occupying Wall Street’s regulator’s offices:

      Yet one group in banking stands out as highly paid—federal bank regulators. Before the Dodd-Frank Act, the average employee of a federal bank regulatory agency received 2.3 times the average compensation of a private banker. By 2013 this ratio increased to more than 2.7—and in some cases considerably more.

      The average compensation at the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. (FDIC) and the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) exceeded $190,000 in 2012. The staff at the Federal Reserve is likely even better compensated, but the Fed refuses to release employee salaries.

      You might think high-paying jobs at these agencies require special skills. Not so. At the OCC, secretaries make on average $79,182 per annum. Motor vehicle operators (the agency’s limo drivers) at the FDIC earn $82,130. Human resources management trainees at the CFPB make $110,759 a year.

      Averages tell only part of the story. In 2012, 68% of FDIC and CFPB staff—and 66% at the OCC—earned above $100,000 a year. Nearly 19% of the CFPB and OCC staff earn more than $180,000 a year. At the OCC, 10.5% of workers earn above $200,000 a year, at the FDIC 9.3%.


      • Yglesias demonstrating his economic illiteracy.

        I am not sure I will ever cease to be amazed by progressives’ blind faith in their own ability to intentionally and predictably manipulate society at large to their liking, along with their utter indifference towards individual freedom as they make those manipulations.


  31. “Before the Dodd-Frank Act, the average employee of a federal bank regulatory agency received 2.3 times the average compensation of a private banker. ”

    I assume this is a nationwide comparison?


  32. Yes, but at least he’s semi honest here:

    “So high as to useless for revenue-raising purposes — but powerful for achieving other ends. ”

    No, it’s not about paying for roads and schools. It’s because they hate rich people.


    “If we take seriously the idea that endlessly growing inequality can have a cancerous effect on our democracy,”

    Thanks for letting me know early that I can disregard the rest of the entire thesis.


  33. Covetousness and class consciousness. He’s got his and he doesn’t want any rubes with pretensions stinking up the joint. Why, any of these cum-guzzling juicers get any respect I’ll never know. Their the MSNBC of whatever. They exist for Rightwingers to rail against.

    Edit: Their should be they’re.


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