Morning Report – Jobs day 11/08/13

Vital Statistics:

Last Change Percent
S&P Futures 1741.8 -3.4 -0.19%
Eurostoxx Index 3009.5 -33.4 -1.10%
Oil (WTI) 94.24 0.0 0.04%
LIBOR 0.239 0.001 0.21%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 81.22 0.373 0.46%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 2.72% 0.12%
Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA 105.3 -0.7
Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA 104.5 -0.7
RPX Composite Real Estate Index 200.7 -0.2
BankRate 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 4.27
Stocks are down in spite of a jobs report that showed a better-than-expected increase in payrolls. Bonds are getting slammed on the number, with the 10-year down 12 basis points.
The economy added 204,000 jobs in the month of October, well in excess of the 120k street expectation. September was revised upward. The government shutdown was expected to depress job growth and it looks like that didn’t happen. The unemployment rate ticked up to 7.3% and the labor force participation rate nosedived to 62.8%, the lowest since January of 1978. Average hourly earnings ticked up a tenth of a percent and average weekly hours fell. Overall, the report was a mixed bag, but it does bring back the possibility of a December tapering. Separately, personal Income rose .5% and personal spending rose .2%.
The chart below shows the labor force participation rate since the days of Ward and June Cleaver. The big increase was due to women entering the workforce, which shows how dramatic the decline has been. Roughly half the gains have been taken away.

Twitter’s IPO went swimmingly. It priced at $26 and traded as high as $50. It now sports a 25 billion market cap which works out to 48 times trailing 12 month sales.
Freddie Mac is doing another risk sharing deal as the GSEs try to lower their footprint in the mortgage market.

28 Responses

    • jnc:

      As an FYI on the whole Sarvis cost Cuccinelli the race:

      For what it is worth, the Cuccinelli campaign itself seems to be blaming the government shutdown, not Sarvis.

      Still no regrets on my vote.

      You got what you wanted, ie split government, so no reason to expect you to regret it.

      Like

  1. I’m curious to see how the Medicaid expansion push plays out.
    Fundraising and governing are different skill sets. But I imaging the whole point of his candidacy and election was to raise funds for the eventual 2016 D nominee.

    Like

  2. “For what it is worth, the Cuccinelli campaign itself seems to be blaming the government shutdown, not Sarvis.”

    Thought they were blaming the lack of money from the national party?

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    • jnc:

      Thought they were blaming the lack of money from the national party?

      Probably different campaign people saying different things. I read this yesterday at NR:

      Chris LaCivita, Ken Cuccinelli’s chief political strategist during the recently ended gubernatorial campaign, says the federal-government shutdown crippled the Virginia Republican’s campaign more than any other factor. “It moved the disaster of Obamacare away from our narrative,” he says, in an interview with National Review Online. “It sucked the oxygen out of the room. Instead of talking about Obamacare, we were talking about the shutdown.”

      In mid October, LaCivita says, the campaign was startled by how the shutdown affected their momentum. Their internal poll numbers dipped and several of the Virginia attorney general’s donors, especially conservative groups aligned with Cuccinelli, “suddenly became gun-shy.”

      Like

  3. “Fundraising and governing are different skill sets.”

    NoVA, McAuliffe may be a lot of things, but he’s not stupid. It wouldn’t surprise me if he turned the governing aspect entirely over to staff and personally concentrated totally on politics.

    Like

    • jnc:

      NoVA, McAuliffe may be a lot of things, but he’s not stupid. It wouldn’t surprise me if he turned the governing aspect entirely over to staff and personally concentrated totally on politics.

      Reminds me of someone else..

      Like

  4. that’s a pretty good observation.

    Like

  5. Serious question, what did Obama apologize about?

    Like

    • Whitaker:

      Serious question, what did Obama apologize about?

      From a linguistic point of view his apology is pretty nonsensical.

      I am sorry that they, you know, are finding themselves in this situation, based on assurances they got from me.”

      But no one has found themselves in any situation “based on assurances they got” from Obama. They found themselves in “this situation” because of the legislation he signed into law, which was deliberately designed to put, and is in fact not economically viable without putting, people in “this situation”. So if he is actually “sorry” that people are finding themselves in this situation, then he must necessarily be sorry he signed O-care into law in the first place. That seems unlikely given that he is forging ahead with it instead of calling for its repeal.

      Alternatively, I suppose he could be “sorry” for giving false assurances to people, but if so this alleged master of rhetoric has chosen a particularly incoherent way of conveying that, framing the apology in terms of the actions of others (“finding themselves”) with him as nothing more than a passive observer rather than framing it in terms of his own regrettable actions. For someone who was genuinely sorry for having given false assurances to people a much more coherent way of apologizing would be to say, er, “I am sorry for giving people false assurances”.

      Like

  6. Serious question, what did Obama apologize about?

    That we were unable to appreciate the subtleties of “if you like your plan you can keep it.”

    Like

  7. Seditious and racist.

    @iowahawkblog: This country doesn’t need more leadership, it needs less followership.

    Like

  8. Maybe we are confused as to who “you” referenced.

    Smokey: Only who can prevent forest fires?
    [Bart chooses the “You” button over the “Me”]

    You pressed “you,” referring to me. That is incorrect. The correct answer is “you”.

    Bart: [kicks the robot] Mom, can Lisa and I play outside — away from the bear?

    and Obama does like his plan and intends to keep it.

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  9. I don’t visit PL but of those here that do, what are they saying Obama apologized about?

    Like

  10. lack of a public option?

    Like

  11. “what are they saying Obama apologized about?”

    They don’t care about the substance. They are angry with him for caving. “Doormat” etc.

    Like

  12. “They found themselves in “this situation” because of the legislation he signed into law, which was deliberately designed to put, and is in fact not economically viable without putting, people in “this situation””

    Ezra note the same thing, then starts the “discrimination” meme again.

    “Last night, NBC’s Chuck Todd asked President Obama about the people losing their health insurance despite his promise that “anyone who likes their plan can keep it.” (See the video and read the transcript here.)

    “I am sorry that they are finding themselves in this situation based on assurances they got from me,” Obama replied.

    The answer is a bit of a dodge. People aren’t finding themselves in this situation based on the president’s promises. They’re finding themselves in this situation based on his policy. And Obama isn’t apologizing for the policy.”

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/11/08/wonkbook-obama-shouldnt-apologize-for-blowing-up-the-terrible-individual-market/

    Like

  13. that actually makes sense. we’re in a post-policy climate after all.

    Like

  14. They are angry with him for caving. “Doormat” etc.

    jnc: Now you’re just quoting R30.

    I, BTW, am bitterly, bitterly disappointed that I didn’t win any of his inaugural Doormat prizes; I thought sure I’d irritated him enough with my knitting to get at least an honorable mention!

    I’ve been too busy to be on PL (or blogs in general) for the last couple of days, so I must have missed the thread where they were calling for the president’s head for caving.

    Like

  15. It’s also a few others.

    “bls2011
    12:04 PM EST”
    ..
    We all know that when the President said, “If you like your plan, you can keep your plan”, he meant that you can keep your healthcare plan if it is a real, bona fide healthcare plan and not a sub-standard rip-off. After all what kind of idiot wants to pay for healthcare plan that covers essentially nothing.

    Yet the Democratic Party is essentially rolling over and playing dead once again on this very crucial issue.

    Why we are doing this to ourselves is beyond me. When will we ever learn???”

    & my favorite:

    “Socko1980
    12:15 PM EST
    “Yesterday, in an interview with NBC News’ Chuck Todd, President Obama apologized to those who have seen insurance cancelled due to Obamacare, conceding many Americans had been misled by his vow that they’d keep plans they like.”

    Barack Obama shouldn’t have apologized. There is nothing to apologize for. He shouldn’t apologize for people being dropped from junk health insurance plans. Most of these crybabies will be able to get better health insurance, now. Plus, this only affects like 5% of the country. If anybody should be apologizing it is the insurance companies. Barack Obama is a wimp. He always rolls over. He never learns.

    Also, Barack Obama didn’t mislead people. He has talked about this grandfathering clause in the past. In fact, he explained it detail at a press conference a few years ago. In 2010 the Obama administration also released a press release about grandfathered health plans. But, nobody was paying attention. All the press cared about was the Tea Party, and “death panels.” Barack Obama has discussed grandfathered health plans before, he just didn’t shout it from the rooftops. Barack Obama’s shouldn’t apologize because Americans are dumb, and don’t pay attention.

    But, privileged white men, like Chuck Todd, and Greg Sargent, get a kick out of castrating the black president, by calling him a liar.

    P.S., George Bush’s tax cuts were not paid for, they helped cause a recession, and they still haven’t created any jobs. Nobody is talking about repealing them, anymore. Why the double-standard?”

    Yes, Greg Sargent is castrating Obama.

    Like

  16. Perfect:

    “A White House in Crisis Mode, but Some Allies Prod for More
    By MICHAEL D. SHEAR
    Published: November 8, 2013

    WASHINGTON — President Obama was seething. Two weeks after the disastrous launch of HealthCare.gov, Mr. Obama gathered his senior staff members in the Oval Office for what one aide recalled as an “unsparing” dressing-down.

    The public accepts that technology sometimes fails, the president said, but he had personally trumpeted that HealthCare.gov would be ready on Oct. 1, and it wasn’t.

    “If I had known,” Mr. Obama said, according to the aide, “we could have delayed the website.”

    http://www.nytimes.com/2013/11/09/us/politics/a-white-house-in-crisis-mode-but-some-allies-prod-for-more.html?hp

    Like

  17. Yes, Greg Sargent is castrating Obama.

    Seems I’ve been missing a typhoon on PL!

    Like

  18. NoVA:

    shrink linked to this on PL with the caption “Nova lives!”

    Heh.

    Like

  19. J, that NYT piece should be an embarrassment for the Democrats.

    Like

  20. No, what’s an embarrassment is that Republicans couldn’t wait one month to pull the government shutdown stunt. That was political malpractice and it totally saved the Democrats (thus far).

    Like

  21. Saved them how? No snark but what would have happened at this point absent a shutdown?

    Like

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