Morning Report 9/19/12

Vital Statistics: 

  Last Change Percent
S&P Futures  1455.6 2.7 0.19%
Eurostoxx Index 2557.9 4.5 0.18%
Oil (WTI) 94.87 -0.4 -0.44%
LIBOR 0.376 -0.003 -0.79%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 79.39 0.141 0.18%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 1.78% -0.02%  
RPX Composite Real Estate Index 194.3 0.7  

Markets are higher this morning after the Bank of Japan increased monetary stimulus.  This is in spite of a disappointing report on housing starts. Bonds are up half a point and MBS are up 1/4.

Housing starts climbed to an annual 750k pace in August, still roughly half of the pre-bubble average since we started keeping records in the late 50s.  To put that number in perspective, in 1959, we had just over 1.5 million housing starts with a population of 177.8M people. Fast forward today, starts are down 50%, while the population is up 75%.  Low household formation numbers combined with underwater homeowners is keeping demand low. That situation will not last forever – the low household formation numbers are creating pent-up demand that eventually gets released.  Even in a lousy economy, people still get married, have kids, and will need housing. We have underbuilt new housing for the past 10 years.

Chart:  Housing starts (1959 – Present)

 The recent QE-driven bull run in stocks has left many people skeptical, given that profitability may have peaked and Taxmageddon may usher in an early 2013 recession. Professional short-seller Jim Chanos is finding value traps in nat gas, iron ore, HP and Coinstar. Doug Kass mentioned Dell and Microsoft as short ideas on Bloomberg radio this am. 

WaPo has an article accusing the banks of price gouging in the latest round of QE. Basically so much capacity has been taken out of the mortgage banking industry that banks cannot handle the amount of business coming their way, especially as GMAC sits in bankruptcy and Bank of America pulled out of correspondent lending. Much of this new business is refinancing, which the banks view as temporary.  As a result they are reluctant to hire, knowing that the refi business is going to disappear once rates start backing up. Also, guarantee fees are increasing, which is working against what the Fed is trying to accomplish.

Who are the 47%?

You’ll all be glad to know I’m done with my brief obsession with the people who produced, filmed and promoted the crappy video that turned the ME on it’s head.  I was more interested in the psychological profiles of the characters involved than the political ones anyway.  Now I’m stuck on Romney.

Here are his comments again, the ones I had a truly visceral reaction to.

There are 47 percent of the people who will vote for the president no matter what. All right, there are 47 percent who are with him, who are dependent upon government, who believe that they are victims, who believe the government has a responsibility to care for them, who believe that they are entitled to health care, to food, to housing, to you-name-it. That that’s an entitlement. And the government should give it to them. And they will vote for this president no matter what…These are people who pay no income tax.

Romney went on: “[M]y job is is not to worry about those people. I’ll never convince them they should take personal responsibility and care for their lives.”

Earlier I challenged Scott to say what he meant.

I think the elephant in this room is that you agree with him. Just say so.

jnc replied first,

I’ll own this. I definitely agree with him. I mean it when I say I’m a libertarian. It’s the most persuasive argument he’s made in my view thus far in the campaign. Note also that the 53% vs 47% meme isn’t original to Romney. The first I saw of it was from Erik at Red State in the Facebook posts in response to the “We are the 99%” meme as part of Occupy Wall Street. The “divide the country” approach didn’t start with Romney, he just draws the line differently than OWS

then went on to talk about the “Life of Julia” and his ideas on the flat tax.  Just a reminder, I ridiculed the “Life of Julia” and said it reminded me of the dopey sex ed material the girls watched in the 60’s and btw, a lot of us are intrigued by jnc’s tax proposals.  Too bad Romney didn’t mention either of those.  He was too busy embarrassing the 47% of the population that don’t pay Federal Income Tax or the 47% of Obama’s base, and brought out the tried but true euphemism that Brigade (of PL fame) always trots out……………..liberals are on the dole and only vote for Democrats so they can continue to get “free stuff”.

Romney seems to be confusing the 47% of people who don’t pay Federal income tax with 47% of the population at large who are Obama’s base who will naturally vote for Obama.  A large number of the 47% who don’t pay income tax are seniors, vets, people living in the poorer states in the south etc., many of whom also generally vote for Republicans.  It’s a little confusing who he’s actually insulting here but it seems to be just about everyone who isn’t in an exclusive group of wealthy Republicans.

And then after challenging me on what he considered my mis-representation of Romney’s words and taking something out of context, Scott said this,

I thought I did, but if I need to be I can be more clear. I agree with him.

I have said this many times, but if the way in which we fund our government is through income taxes, then everyone should pay income taxes, and the tax rate should be flat with no exemptions.

I think this is interesting because none of the quotes I was objecting to had to do with a flat tax or even Romney, Scott or Jnc’s tax solutions which are all slightly different if I understand them correctly.  Romney/Ryan don’t like to get into the same kind of specifics that Scott or Jnc do, so I know less about them than I’d like to.

Political differences and tax solutions aside, I wanted to know whether they agreed with the Romney comments I quoted above.

And the government should give it to them. And they will vote for this president no matter what…These are people who pay no income tax”.

Here are a couple of maps showing counties that voted for Obama and the richest vs poorest counties in the country.

Matt Welch over at Reason.com:

I should theoretically be the target audience for this stuff. I never took out a federally guaranteed student loan, never enjoyed the mortgage-interest deduction; I worry all the time about government spending and entitlements, and I am not unfamiliar with the looter/moocher formulation. But this kind of reductionism does not reflect individualism (as David Brooks charges), it rejects individualism, by insisting that income tax is destiny. It judges U.S. residents not as humans but as productive (or unproductive) units.

There are to my mind many more important things to consider in this presidential race than Mitt Romney’s reductive parroting of plausible-but-wrong GOP tropes. But the reason this controversy will have legs is ultimately because many Republicans think Romney’s comments were just fine They are about to learn what the rest of the country thinks about that.

That piece above from “The Corner” (linked in the Reason piece) should please Scott and Jnc.  We’ll see who’s right…………….but I think Romney just screwed his chances of ever becoming President of the United States.  Personally, I don’t think he deserves it.

Morning Report 9/18/12

Vital Statistics:

  Last Change Percent
S&P Futures  1453.2 -0.8 -0.06%
Eurostoxx Index 2563.5 -20.1 -0.78%
Oil (WTI) 95.89 -0.7 -0.76%
LIBOR 0.379 -0.002 -0.53%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 79.08 0.073 0.09%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 1.79% -0.05%  
RPX Composite Real Estate Index 194.3 0.7  

Markets are lower on the back of a decline in European stocks and a profit warning from Fed Ex. The current account deficit came in lower than expected and foreign purchases of US assets jumped to 67B in July from 9B in June.  Bonds and MBS are stronger.

The National Association of Homebuilders Market Index rose to the highest level since early 2007, the latest sign that things are getting better for the homeboys. The Homebuilder ETF (XHB) has been on a tear since the beginning of summer, rallying 21%, but is still 45% off of its bubble highs. 

Chart:  SPDR S&P Homebuilder’s Index ETF (XHB)

Funny tweet from Bill Gross:  Central banks are where bad bonds go to die. The article goes on to discuss whether to be long Treasuries.  IMO – obama win, bond bullish, Romney win, bond bearish.

Bloomberg discusses the foreclosure backlog in New Jersey. The upshot – shadow inventory is decreasing everywhere except for the Northeast where judicial foreclosures are slowing the pace of foreclosures and creating a backlog. This is primarily affecting NY, NJ, CT, and PA. Which is why prices are rebounding in Phoenix and still falling in Fairfield County.  Wasn’t the plan in Washington to hold foreclosures off the market in the hope that less selling pressure means prices hold up?  So much for that theory….

שנה טובה ומתוקה‎

A good and sweet year to you all.

Today is a happy celebration for me and my family. But it begins the ten days of penitence, in which I am to find the people I mistreated during the previous year and ask their forgiveness. I am to do this so that I can seek God’s forgiveness ten days from now on Yom Kippur, the Day of Atonement. If I have not honestly sought forgiveness from those I have injured first then it is thought my prayers for forgiveness to God will not be heard.

This exercise has been mirrored in the Twelve Steps of AA, btw.

Let me add that I have only once seriously pursued this outside my family and close friends in 69 years. It is difficult, and not so much for the reason one would anticipate, the discomfort in making the request. It is difficult because we never know whom we mistreated inadvertently unless they tell us, and then we clean it up at the time, as best we can. Further, it is difficult to recall whom we mistreated purposefully if the emotion that caused the outburst or action is long gone, or if we don’t think of what we did as “mistreatment” at all.

We only trade words here, so I do not recall mistreating any of you save one, and that was inadvertent. I offered my regret at the time. You are welcome to correct me on my faulty memory of mistreatment of others by email to me.

In the Jewish version, it is unnecessary that the the one I mistreated forgives me. It is, however, required that the request by me be sincere.

Morning Report 9/17/12

Vital Statistics:

  Last Change Percent
S&P Futures  1457.1 -1.9 -0.13%
Eurostoxx Index 2583.8 -10.7 -0.41%
Oil (WTI) 99.07 0.1 0.07%
LIBOR 0.381 -0.005 -1.17%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 78.91 0.063 0.08%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 1.85% -0.01%  
RPX Composite Real Estate Index 193.6 -0.1  

Expect a quiet market today and tomorrow for the Jewish holidays. S&P futures are down a couple of points and bonds / MBS are up a few ticks. There is not much on the economic calendar this week.

The Empire State Manufacturing Survey showed manufacturing in the New York region contracted more than expected. Just more evidence that the economy is losing steam going into the election. The diffusion index is now at the lows of late 2010. FWIW, I am hearing initial forecasts for 3Q GDP growth coming in around 1%. Meanwhile, several business owners testified last week that regulatory uncertainty is driving a lot of the inaction.

Paul Krugman has yet another editorial ridiculing anyone who disagrees with ZIRP and QE.  Nobody attacks a strawman with more savagery than Dr. Cowbell, who imagines he is debating with someone who honestly fears Zimbabwean style inflation (yes, he actually did say that).  Right now, commodities are soaring along with the stock market.  Wages are flat to falling.  So, a combination of flat wages and increased food and energy prices equals lower disposable income. I suspect a lot of middle class people would prefer not to have this “help.”  Or seniors, for that matter, who receive meager interest income from Treasuries and high quality corporate bonds.

Rick Santelli (kind of the anti-Krugman) raises some good points about why QE might not end up influencing mortgage rates to the consumer.  Why?  Because we are raising the guarantee fee on conforming mortgages, and the banks will respond to the GSE’s round of put-backs by increasing borrowing costs. His view on ZIRP – the government needs to borrow a lot of money and needs interest rates as low as possible. He also notes that a lot of the floor traders have become mortgage bankers.

Investors in foreclosed properties now have a new source of funds – banks! Waypoint Real Estate Group got $65 million from Citi to buy foreclosed properties. Citi is also working on a way to issue securities backed by rental income streams. This is very good news for the housing market.

Why Gene Weingarten is an A–hat

Yellojkt got something of a shout out in Gene Weingarten’s column this week in which he discusses his interactions with the commenterati. Here’s the relevant paragraph:

“The comparatively erudite Yellojkt, a frequent disparager of mine, periodically writes lengthy, joyful disquisitions on my abject failings as a professional, such as the blog item I am looking at from 2008, which goes on for pages and includes multiple links and is titled “Why Gene Weingarten Is an A–hat.” (Abstract: Because I suck.)”

The full column can be found here.

BB

Anniversaries and a Local Connection to Libya

Hi All,

I’m really sorry I missed the Anniversary.  I wanted to bring balloons and a banner and have a real party but thankfully Scott wrote a nice post and the rest of you joined in with congratulations to ATiM and each other.  Next year we’ll have a big bash with music, speeches and lots of toasts.   I should be able to drink something stronger than apple juice by then.  I’ll just reiterate everyone’s appreciation of Brent and his morning reports and a heartfelt thanks to the rest of you who have taken the time to publish posts and participate in the comments and have also helped with the technical end of things.

Like many of you I’ve learned considerably more about subjects I wasn’t previously that familiar with, discovered interesting tidbits of information about each of you (an unfolding mystery), and personally confronted a few more short-comings in myself than I originally bargained for.  It’s been an interesting endeavor, so thanks everyone.  It’s true; I did tell Scott I hated him once (thanks for telling everyone….lol), about three years ago.  What he forgot to mention, or may have simply forgotten, is that I also apologized right away.  I realized even then, that although we were strangers (much more so then than now) and I didn’t appreciate or like what he was saying, he certainly didn’t deserve my hate.  I was embarrassed I’d even said it as I had gotten caught up in the moment of a heated exchange on health care reform, something I am very passionate about.  No excuses though, even as a few come to mind…………………….hahahahaha.

It’s been a rough year for me health wise, and I’ve been away from ATiM almost as much as I’ve been around.  I’m hopeful all that’s behind me now once I get caught up on my sleep and finish this last round of antibiotics, which I’m having a little trouble keeping down………yuck.   What I learned in the past six or seven months is that my efforts at being healthy my entire adult life didn’t protect me from a health threat I hadn’t anticipated or an unexpected depletion of our funds set aside for emergencies.  What I thought was, and probably should have been, a fairly routine bout of food poisoning in March got very complicated and damn near killed me.   It should be a lesson to all of us that we shouldn’t take our good fortune or good health for granted.   I do feel grateful though that I had some excellent doctors and nurses treating me, even though there were times they seemed more than a little stymied (slightly terrifying), and that I will recover and be as good as new again.  Well, as new as any 62 year old can be, that is.  I’m very cognizant of the fact there are a lot of people who can’t say that with certainty so I feel particularly blessed and more than a little bit lucky right now.

I was in the hospital last week with no access to the internet but I did follow the news a little and read the local newspaper.  I became fascinated with the story behind the so-called film that started, or was blamed for starting, all the trouble in the Middle East.  I’m a big proponent of free speech, as we all are, but it’s a shame so much of this tragedy swirls around what was essentially an alleged con-artist’s effort to stir up trouble and probably rip a few investors off.  I’m speculating here a little but I did have time yesterday to do some research, in between naps……lol.  I don’t know if anyone here has already covered this ground or not, as I haven’t had the chance to read through all the comments yet, but here are a few stories that I found particularly compelling.

Some of you may remember I commented here a couple of times that I quit participating in our local city council meetings and citizen commissions a couple of years ago when our conservative city aligned itself with Arizona’s volatile immigration bill.  One of the reasons I became so disillusioned was because there were outsiders (out of state even) around town agitating community members and our council members were swayed by their arguments.  One day last week I saw this guy’s photo in the paper and recognized him as one of those outsiders.  At the same time all of this was going on in 2010 some anti-Obama/anti-Muslim protesters set up a table just outside of the Post Office handing out fliers and propaganda and generally trying to stir up trouble.  Here’s the local story on this Klein character with the photo I saw.  And apparently the film maker is a CA man as well.

Steven Klein, owner of Wise Home Insurance Services, said he believes Muslim extremists control most of the mosques across the United States and that his intention is only to tell the truth.

A Cal State San Bernardino center that monitors extremist groups describes Klein as part of a national anti-Muslim hate movement.

Klein said he founded a group called Courageous Christians United after the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks spurred him to get involved in what he called educating people about Islam. He said he later handed the group over to another person.

He then founded Concerned Citizens for the First Amendment, which also educates people about Islam, he said.

Although he has distributed literature about Islam, Klein said he did not attend protests against the building of a new mosque in Temecula in 2010.

But he said he and other members of Concerned Citizens for the First Amendment distributed leaflets on Islam in high schools across Southern California, including in Temecula, Corona, Murrieta, Norco and Menifee.

Klein said he has written on issues other than Islam, targeting illegal immigration, gays and lesbians serving in the military and Mormonism. But he said he has not attended or organized demonstrations on those issues.

The Southern Poverty Law Center, which monitors hate activity, on Wednesday put out a dossier on Klein. The center quotes him from his Facebook page in 2011 as saying Muslims “are a cancer that WILL attack us and KILL as many as they can to further the Islamic doctrine of Sharia law … Beware, there IS a holy war coming.”

I’m tempted to email all of these stories to the council members and my friend who is the Mayor Pro Tem right now, but I promised my husband I would stay out of it.  Small town politics can get pretty ugly as I’ve discovered anew in the last four years.

Here’s another piece I read that details more on the film-maker and highlights rather obviously that the initial media reports weren’t exactly accurate.  Apparently he’s a convicted meth cooker and scam artist still on probation and not of Israeli origin.  No wonder he went into hiding.

As an example of the early reporting, here is the opening of a top story in the Los Angeles Times, based on AP reporting: “An Israeli filmmaker based in California who made a movie belittling Islam’s prophet Muhammad that has ignited Middle East riots and led to the death of the U.S. ambassador in Libya says he is in hiding. Sam Bacile, 56, who described himself as an ‘Israeli Jew’ who develops real estate in California, told the Associated Press by phone that he went into hiding Tuesday after assaults by conservative Muslims on U.S. missions in Egypt and Libya.”

The AP, in an early report, flatly called Bacile “an Israeli fillmmaker.” Even Haaretz, the Israeli newspaper, published this under the headline, “Israeli Filmmaker in Hiding.”

The media accounts on “Bacile” slowly fell apart as the day wore on yesterday, as I documented here in update, thanks mainly to reporting by blog sites, including Gawker, Buzzfeed and Jeffrey Goldberg at The Atlantic’s site. Then last night, the AP weighed in with an excellent report that seemed to track down the real Bacile, using some fine investigative techniques, and outed him as one Nakoula Basseley Nakoula (Basseley=Bacile, for one thing) in Cerritos, California.

And lastly, the LA Times with a little more background on the film’s producers.  A convict and an agitator deny their culpability now that the shit has hit the fan.

One ran a low-profile Christian charity from a sleepy suburb east of Los Angeles. The other was a financially strapped gas station operator just out of federal prison.

In the last year, these men, both Egyptian immigrants, became unlikely collaborators in an endeavor that has shaken the stability of the Middle East.

Joseph Nassralla Abdelmasih, the president of the Duarte-based charity Media for Christ, and Nakoula Basseley Nakoula, a convicted felon from Cerritos, emerged Thursday as forces behind “Innocence of Muslims.”

Both men appeared to have gone into hiding Thursday. As the furor over the film grew, they and their associates have distanced themselves from the production. Nakoula told the Associated Press he was a logistics manager on the movie, not the director. He told a Coptic bishop Thursday that he had no role in it, the clergyman told The Times.

“He denied completely any involvement,” said Bishop Serapion of the Coptic Orthodox Diocese of Los Angeles.

He [Nakoula] was convicted on state drug charges in 1997. In 2010, he was convicted in an identity theft scheme. According to the court file, Nakoula, who ran gas stations in Hawaiian Gardens, operated under a dizzying array of aliases, including Kritbag Difrat. He was sentenced to 21 months in federal prison and was released last summer.

Somewhere in the links above is mentioned the lack of public interest in the film itself.  Apparently, there was a viewing of the entire film in a theater recently and no one showed up, literally, not a single person.  This kind of story is right up my alley but the really sad aspect to all of it is, of course, the loss of life.  The thing with free speech is that there are consequences and they generally rest on those who abuse the privilege.  Even if it is ultimately discovered, as the speculation now suggests, that the assault on the consulate was planned and carried out separately from the protests surrounding the youtube trailer of the film, the so-called film will always be associated with the deaths of at least four Americans.

Update 1……….I got a kick out of reading the diet and exercise talk among the guys yesterday but serious congrats to Kevin, McWing and FB’s wife for losing the weight.  Yellow won with the best comment though………OMG.  I’ve always been thin and not a big eater but I’ve gotten too thin this year and am trying to gain back some of the weight I lost.  I was doing pretty well and heading back up to 125 until a little over a week ago, now I get to start all over again as I weighed in at 115 this morning.  I’m still just under 5’9” and big boned so need to get back to about 135 if possible as that’s my healthy weight.  My husband got up to about 235 at 6’2” about 5 or 6 years ago but when he was diagnosed with gout he went on a really strict diet I designed for him and he really lost the extra pounds fast and eliminated the gout as well.  He’s around 200 now which seems to be maintainable and no complaints from the doctors, he’s a swimmer like me and we both ride the stationary bike and I walk our dog most days.  He missed a lot of his workouts earlier this year because of a broken leg but just cut his calories down to make up for it and it seemed to work.  I do most of the cooking and I can tell when he’s gaining a little weight so I just cook a bit differently and he doesn’t even seem to notice……….hahahaha.  I also know when he sneaks out to get a hamburger on the way to the bank or post office and cut back accordingly.

Update 2………….Just read this interview.  I think maybe someone should just wire Romney’s jaw shut at this point.

GEORGE STEPHANOPOULOS: How about the film that seems to have sparked all this, the Innocence of Muslims film? Secretary Clinton today said she thought it was disgusting. How would you describe it?

MITT ROMNEY: Well, I haven’t seen the film. I don’t intend to see it. I you know, I think it’s dispiriting sometimes to see some of the awful things people say. And the idea of using something that some people consider sacred and then parading that out a negative way is simply inappropriate and wrong. And I wish people wouldn’t do it. Of course, we have a First Amendment. And under the First Amendment, people are allowed to do what they feel they want to do. They have the right to do that, but it’s not right to do things that are of the nature of what was done by, apparently this film.

GEORGE STEPHANOPOULOS: We’ve seen General Martin Dempsey call Pastor Jones to say, “Please don’t promote this film.” You think that’s a good idea?

MITT ROMNEY: I think the whole film is a terrible idea. I think him making it, promoting it showing it is disrespectful to people of other faiths. I don’t think that should happen. I think people should have the common courtesy and judgment– the good judgment– not to be– not to offend other peoples’ faiths. It’s a very bad thing, I think, this guy’s doing.

Happy Saturday everyone!!!!!!!!!

Saturday Football Open Thread, Week Three

Well, Mike’s USF Bulls fell to Rutgers on Thursday night 23 – 13, although in their defense they’d had a short week after a spectacular win over Nevada last Saturday.  Last night’s Washington State/UNLV game was predictable, 35 – 27.  Oklahoma has a bye this week, so you can spend all the time in your yard that you like, okie!  It should be another great weekend for both football and outdoor fun, so what’s going on in the stadia:

Western Michigan is playing Minnesota (line: UMinn, spread 1.0)  Really?  I find it difficult to believe that the Broncos are likely to keep it that close, especially after losing to Illinois in Week One 24 – 7.  But maybe they’ll surprise me.  [Update: Minnesota wins 28 – 23]  So the Broncos did better than I thought they would!

Arkansas State is at Nebraska (line: Nebraska, spread 23)  Don’t know much about either team, other than Fairlington Blade is a life-long Nebraska fan, poor soul.  Go, Huskers!  [Update: Nebraska wins 42 – 13]

Cal at ohio state university (line: osu, spread 17.0)  Please, please, please, Golden Bears!!  Come through for me this weekend!!  [Update: osu wins 35 – 28, dang it.  They clearly used #RomneyStrength]

Virginia is at Georgia Tech (line: GT, spread 10.5)  This game has been a toss-up the last three meetings, so anything goes. . . but for yello’s sake, I hope GT wins.  [Update: GT uses real #RomneyStrength to win 56 – 20.  What a game, yello!!]

Boston College is playing at Northwestern (line: Northwestern, spread 4.5)  Hey–didn’t Jack Ryan go to BC?  Go Eagles!  [Update:  Northwestern 22 – 13]

UMass is in The Big House (line: UMich, spread 45.5)  Some games just shouldn’t be played.  Or scheduled in the first place.  [Update: UMich 63 – 13  Beat the spread and everything]

Navy at Penn State (line: PSU, spread 8.5)  Here’s hoping O’Brien gets his first win.  Heaven knows the players could use it, and please let the kicker make a FG this week. . . [Update: PSU takes this one 36 – 7]

Stony Brook vs Syracuse (no details available at posting time)  This strikes me as one of those football games in which many of us haven’t  heard of half of the teams.  Got any insight for us, Scott?  [Update: Syracuse, 28 – 17]

USC is playing Stanford (boy, Lulu, you picked a bad week to tell me these were your two teams!  line: USC, spread 8.0)  Go Trojan Cardinal!  (And that sounds like a colorful condom or something!)  [Update: Stanford wins in an upset, 21 – 14]

Utah State is at Wisconsin (line: UW, spread 14.0)  I think they’re being overly kind to USU after their win over Utah last week.  They’ve had their big win for the season, the Badgers will probably romp.  [Update:  UW holds USU scoreless in the second half and wins 16 – 14.  USU far exceeded my expectations, and it looks like UW lived “up” to Mark’s.]

Texas will crush Ole Miss (line: UT, spread 10.0)  Mark (no pun intended) my words, UT is going to blow the spread away.  [Update: UT blows the spread away 66 – 31.  *coughmarkcough*]

BYU at Utah (line: BYU, spread 3.5)  Go, Utes!  ‘Nough said.  [Update: Utah wins 24 – 21]

S. Carolina State is at Arizona (no details available at posting time)  C’mon ‘Cats, prove McWing wrong (again)!!  [Update:  Arizona also utilizes #RomneyStrength and smushes SCS 56 – 0.  Three wins in a row, McWing!]

And the mac daddy game this week (as far as I’m concerned, anyway):

Notre Dame at MSU (line: MSU, spread 6.0)  MSU is going for its 16th home victory in a row.  Go State!  8:00 pm edt on ABC.  [Update: Meh.  The Irish win 20 – 3.  MSU played like a third-rate high school team; the O-line was non-existent, the QB was throwing uncatchable passes, when he did throw catchable ones the receivers dropped them. . . horrible, horrible game.  Sigh.]


P.S.  Kevin!  Great to see you–and even better to see you posting!  Who’s your team(s) that I should add to the mix?


Diet and Exercise

On the anniversary post, I was asked for “diet tips” and exercise tips in the comments. So . . . here they are. YMMV.

Situps are a lot easier when you’ve lost 70 lbs. If you can do them at home, in the bed in the morning or whenever when you can grab a minute, you’ll find you can increase the weight you can pull on the crunch machine at the gym. That’s been my experience at least. And having less time to go to the gym, finding times where I can do plain body weight exercises has been a life saver.

Toe lifts can be done almost anywhere, at almost any time. Maybe you can’t run on the treadmill or go for a walk, but toe lifts can help with a lot of those muscles, and you can reach your maximum exertion quickly. There’s always time for toe lifts.

Pushups work a lot of major muscle groups at the same time (proceed with caution if you’ve got back issues). You can do them in all sorts of places. The goal I’ve got is 100 pushups a day. Eventually, 100 in an hour, in sets of 25. I cannot yet complete a full set of 25, but it’s amazing how many muscle groups are improved by developing strength with plank pushups. Haven’t got to a 100 a day, but I’m halfway there (I’ve topped 50, though I still don’t do that every day). But when I started, I was doing sets of 5 and not getting to more than 20 on a good day. It’s just very slow going.

Diet: don’t eat much. Some people go vegan, do Paleo, do Atkins. Everybody has a reason why there way works and radical calorie restriction does not . . . but radical calorie restriction actually does work. At least, it has for me. All I’m doing. Just not eating very much, but trying to get sufficient nutrition to remain healthy. I focus on calories and quantity, and don’t worry much about nutritional value, or whether there is protein or wheat or saturated fats in what I’m eating. I just don’t eat much. And I eat more of fruits and vegetables, if they are part of the meal.

The motivation game is the issue. That’s trickier. I just always keep in mind that the food will be there next week, next month, next year. I don’t have to eat it now. I also keep in mind that the way the brain works (and the reason I was fat in the first place) is that overeating trains the brain to always ask for more. Dopamine receptors go down and dopamine releases go up. So I always think about that, when I’m downstairs, and it’s late, and I’m thinking of snacking. It took three months of very light eating (most of the time) to retrain my brain to stop acting like I was starving because I wasn’t eating second breakfast. Do I want to lose that? I do not. So I skip the late night snack.

Best time of my life, I weighed around 180. I think about that, too. Not that it’s a causal relationship, but it certainly can’t hurt to recreate what components of that time that I can. I think about how I had felt trapped and miserable in high school (when I was fat, out of shape), and how that had seemed to stretch out for decades rather than a few short years. Then how much and how dramatically so much in my life improved during my college years, and just how awesome they were. There were lots of reasons for that, of course, but being slim and fit certainly helped.

And as the quality of my life deteriorated after college in many important ways, I was putting on weight. Hmmmm. Does make a man ponder.

But the improvements in my life, back in the distant past, didn’t happen right away when the needle on the scale first dipped below 180. So I need to maintain, and then judge how things are in my life generally a year from now and two and three years from now. So I keep that in mind as well.

The other bit as regards motivation is spending time (now that I am much skinnier, and generally more fit) enjoying it. Dressing well, admiring myself in the mirror, jumping down the last five or six stairs and landing lightly on my feet. Running a mile on the treadmill, and reflecting on how that would have probably killed me 9 months ago. Thinking about the difference in squeezing through tight spaces or running out to my car or riding rides at the fair. The quality of all these experiences are dramatically better. Do I need to eat dessert that badly?

The answer is no.

Plus, it’s fun, at 43, to be physically fit and attractive. I get looks from, and flirted with by, women half my age. I got the flustered oh-my-gosh-this-an-attractive-man reaction from my daughter’s dance teacher last night, a reaction that I got very familiar with in college. It’s a reaction you only get from women (if you are a man) when they knew you before, and you show up suddenly transformed, for them. They’ve watched you move (abruptly, in their experience, because they have not see you for awhile) from asexual blob of generic humanity to a fit and attractive man radiating strength. It’s not flirting, but it’s an unmistakeable “Wow!” reaction. And one you never get when you’re overweight and out of shape, and not one you get when you move in the other direction. “Wow, you’ve gotten fat!” is a completely different experience.

We’re going on a cruise in November. I weigh now what I weighed when I went to London in college (best trip of my life, for many reasons). I haven’t been this skinny or fit on a nice vacation in 20 years. That’s exciting. I’m going to buy a new suit for the trip, the kind of dress suit that looks great on thin, fit people. And I’m going to look awesome in it. Would I want to spoil that with a cheeseburger (and then another, and then another) or snacks and sugared soft drinks all day long? No, no, I would not. Would it be nice to lose another 5 or 10 lbs before the trip begins? Yes, yes it would. Can I see myself running half-a-mile on a treadmill on the cruise ship each morning? Yes, yes I can. And I couldn’t do that without having done the ground work, or maintaining it. So . . . that’s what I focus on. Because that’s what’s working for me, right now.

A great deal of it is where I keep my mind. Hopefully, I won’t be back here a year from now reporting I’ve gained 50 lbs! I’ve lost weight (I topped out at 300 lbs in high school, bottomed out at 150 lbs 2.5 years later). I got down to 225 before a trip to Mexico in 2008, then shot back up to 270 in 6 months. But I weighed in at 185 lbs this morning. I haven’t weighed that since early 1990.

Now, if I could only will away the perma-flab that comes from having weighed 300 lbs in high school and 270 lbs a year ago. But perma-flab was a problem even at 150 lbs in college, it’s not the kind of thing you fix without surgery. And, at 43, I think I’ll pass on cosmetic surgery. Because I still look drop-dead gorgeous in a suit. 😉

I’m not sure any of this will be beneficial to anybody else. But it’s working for me, for now. And that’s my story.

Or, my story, so far.

Bits & Pieces (Friday Morning Open Mic)

Mitt Romney is looking like a better candidate all the time.

For everyone who ever wondered where the heck some of Superman’s powers came from in Superman II:

Seriously? Super-Kiss? The ability to pull the S off his chest and make it a big cellophane wrapper? And the bad guys “finger beams”? Where are Kryptonian “finger-beams” in the Superman canon?

Susan Solomon chats up stem cells at TED. She brings up Vioxx, a longstanding pharmaceutical bugaboo of mine. Vioxx, for many users, was a miracle drug. For a significant minority of users, it killed them. So, instead of changing the prescription and treatment model, they recalled the drug and took it off the market. Apparently, researching drugs with stem cell cultures could allow us to identify where certain people would be helped and others would die with the use of a drug. That would be a good thing, I would think.

•••

Is Obesity the Greatest Threat To Our National Security? It’s not a good thing, I know. I’ve recently lost 70 lbs myself, and it’s better being thin than fat, all things considered. But I’m not sure I’ve improved our national security by doing so a single iota. I believe this may be hyperbole.

At least we know the Obama’s aren’t pandering to the fat vote. Although I’m not sure that’s politically smart, given how many of them there are.

Do tax cuts for the rich help the economy? Some say no.

•••

Is romance and lots of support and loving and no expectation of anything in return? Not according to Athol Kay on his blog (Married Man Sex Life), and not according to his multitudes of readers, and advice seekers, on the forums of said blog. It can be eye opening, yet I’ve found my experience dovetails with much of what I read.

Being a jerk doesn’t necessarily lead to a great marriage, but being nice and sweet and supportive (at least, for the guy) definitely doesn’t lead there, either. If you’re a hyper-supportive beta-male (like me), you might think it’s just your situation, but apparently it’s played out again and again and again in marriages across the world:

Boy meets girl, boy and girl get married, guy is super-supportive and tries to be romantic and sweet, girl loses attraction, sex practically vanishes. Girl tells boy he needs to be more supportive and nicer and possibly richer and also more obedient and then she will find him more attractive. Boy tries to comply, girl becomes more distant, more nagging, more shrewish, less affectionate, sex disappears completely.

Then, if you read the stories, girl, as often as not, takes her love to town, cuckolds her husband, and then when her adultery is finally discovered, blames him and tries to arrange it so she can have her cake and eat it too (exciting lover and poor beta-husband’s wallet). I haven’t exactly experienced that, but it’s pretty clear lots of guys do. Don’t go searching for Talk About Marriage unless you want to be deeply, deeply depressed.

The answer? Guys need to be men, the captains of their ship, and step up to the plate and have some balls. Turns out, neither Oprah nor Doctor Phil, and not even John Gray (although I devoured his stuff in my late 20s, early 30s, with pretty much zero benefit) have the right advice for men. The right advice turns out to be: man up, and don’t put up with bullshit. Who knew?

Don’t even get me started on the Manosphere. They definitely don’t like the womyn much, or our feminized culture.

•••

I meant to post this yesterday in celebration of ATiM’s anniversary. However, life gets in the way. Since I did not, I get to share this experience:

Coming back from my daughter’s dance class last, I went through a DUI checkpoint that was like nothing I’d ever seen. They randomly picked a stretch of road about a block long, shut off two lanes on either side so all traffic had to be funneled through one lane. There were about 20 officers in the road, about 50 or 60 on the sides, some of them probably technicians or other support people. Along one side there were five or six cruisers with their bars lit, on the other side there were about 25. Going through it, they checked my tags, asked me where I was going, checked my license (checked the cup holders, natch, looking for open containers), and made sure I and my little girl were properly seat-belted.

They were polite as could be, but it was an odd experience. I can’t imagine the open container and seat belt citations could possible pay for a quarter of the expense of such a large operation. There was too much time for seeing the enormity of the stake out and actually getting there for folks not to have plenty of opportunity to put their seat belts on and hide any open containers; they’d have to be actively drunk, and seriously so, to get caught. I heard officers complaining that they’d checked over 40 cars and got nothing. Then I heard another say he saw an open container, but the guy had zoomed on out and gotten away. Nearly 30 cruisers, bars lit, and no one sitting by to chase down a fleeing violator.

Very strange.