Brent Nyitray
Fairlington Blade
Let the mutherfuker burn!
jnc4p
Kevin S. Willis
Michigoose
lmsinca
markinaustin
Memetrics
novahockey
quarterback
ScottC
yellojktVital Statistics:
| Last | Change | Percent | |
| S&P Futures | 1447.3 | -5.9 | -0.41% |
| Eurostoxx Index | 2545.6 | -22.1 | -0.86% |
| Oil (WTI) | 91.68 | -0.3 | -0.33% |
| LIBOR | 0.373 | -0.003 | -0.73% |
| US Dollar Index (DXY) | 79.48 | 0.423 | 0.54% |
| 10 Year Govt Bond Yield | 1.73% | -0.04% | |
| RPX Composite Real Estate Index | 194.1 | -0.1 |
Markets are lower this morning after some disappointing European reports and a soft initial jobless report. 383K people filed for unemployment last week, higher than the survey of 379k. Last week was revised upward as well. Later this morning we will get Leading Economic Indicators. Bonds are up a point and MBS are up 1/4.
It looks like HUD paid out over $1B in false claims for its Preforeclosure Sale Program. The program ran from 9/10 to 8/11 and paid out $1.7B in total. It was intended to help homeowners who must sell their home for less than it was worth, provided they had an unavoidable financial crisis, lived in the home and did not have sufficient income to make the payments. The IG sampled 80 random cases and found 3/4 failed to meet the criteria. Ironically, it may have been a blessing in disguise since the homes would have probably gone into foreclosure anyway and FHA would have lost more in that event.
FHFA has sent to the Federal Register its approach for setting guarantee fees on a state-by-state basis, to account for the fact that foreclosures take longer and are more expensive in some states than others. Housing advocates will undoubtedly object strongly to this measure. I guess they believe that borrowers in non-judicial states should subsidize borrowers in judicial states.
On the back of yesterday’s WaPo story highlighting the difficulty the Fed is having getting the benefits of QE to Main Street due to bottlenecks in mortgage origination, Bank of America announced they are cutting 16,000 jobs by year end, of which 3200 are in new mortgage origination. It is astounding how much national capacity has been taken out of mortgage origination over the past 5 years. I suspect a lot of people will find themselves caught flat-footed when the turn happens.
Filed under: Morning Report |
All Things in Moderation 
Worth a read:
“My Embed in Red
A week steeped in right-wing media reveals a Republican Party far more despairing than the lamestream knows.
By Frank Rich
Published Sep 16, 2012”
http://nymag.com/print/?/news/frank-rich/right-wing-media-2012-9/
“Mitt and the Moochers
Simon Johnson
Sep. 20, 2012”
http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/mitt-and-the-moochers-by-simon-johnson
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“Leading Economic Gauge Dips; Philly Fed Index Shrinks”
http://www.cnbc.com/id/49102068
It certainly is a bumpy ride.
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‘For nearly two years oil extracted from the middle of the US and Canada has traded at steep discounts to oil delivered in ocean tankers as North American drillers pump more than pipelines can take to refineries.
Now investors including Pimco and Goldman Sachs [GS 116.745 -2.275 (-1.91%) ], the Wall Street bank with the biggest commodities business by revenues, say these discounts will narrow. Others including PBF Energy, a company chaired by refinery investor Tom O’Malley, and oil transport company Magellan Midstream Partners see the discounts lasting for years.
This debate matters. At stake are hundreds of millions of dollars worth of trades and investments as well as fees for commodities exchange operators CME Group and IntercontinentalExchange.
The discount is most visible in futures markets, where $92-a-barrel West Texas Intermediate, the US benchmark crude, sells for $16 less than Brent, the North Sea benchmark. Changes in pipeline flows and the use of rail routes to carry crude produced inland to the coast have led to bets that the discount will diminish.
Goldman argues that a recent change in direction of oil flow along the Seaway pipeline is draining 150,000 barrels a day from the glutted WTI delivery and pricing point of Cushing. The pipeline’s capacity is due to rise 400,000 b/d in 2013.
New rail infrastructure will carry more barrels from inland fields, reconnecting Cushing with the waterborne market. This should in turn shrink the WTI discount to $4, or the Seaway tariff, says David Greely, Goldman’s head of energy research. The bank is recommending clients buy WTI and sell Brent for delivery next June.”
http://www.cnbc.com/id/49098016
Classic misdirection by Goldman. This would be an easy trade to get killed on and a hard one to make money on. I’ll bet their real deal is something entirely different.
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banned, it actually reminds me of Saloman back back in the day… They would put out these huge research pieces and at the end would have some sort of structured product (knock-in quanto whizbang option) which would allow you to make the same bet. Of course they had the other side of the trade.
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Thanks for the link to the Frank Rich piece, jnc, I’d had it in the back of my mind to track it down.
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Also, did the site layout change?
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smaller font?
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That’s what I noticed.
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President Obama’s quote on “redistribution” in full. Sounds like a pretty mainstream progressive/liberal/democratic position to me. I.e. not crazy Marxist/socialist.
I’d argue that every time Romney elevates one of Obama’s obscure past statements as an example of the President’s nefarious socialist intentions, and then the full statement doesn’t live up to the hype it diminishes Romney a little more. Basically a case of the Republican candidate who cried “socialist” once too often.
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The Onion strikes again”
http://www.theonion.com/articles/media-having-trouble-finding-right-angle-on-obamas,2703/
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jnc/NoVa–
I don’t know what did it; it was like this when I changed the QOTD last night. I suspect that there’s a setting that got flipped somewhere in the bowels of the system.
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jnc:
I’d argue that every time Romney elevates one of Obama’s obscure past statements as an example of the President’s nefarious socialist intentions, and then the full statement doesn’t live up to the hype it diminishes Romney a little more. Basically a case of the Republican candidate who cried “socialist” once too often.
I agree totally. I can see which Mark McKinnon and Steve Schmidt are sitting this one out–Romney’s Boston gang doesn’t seem to be capable of running a competent campaign for dog catcher at this point. And I don’t think he’s got enough time to recover, absent a black swan event (as someone pointed out yesterday).
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See also the quote from the Simon Johnson article I linked above:
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One of the most disappointing things that comes to mind about President Obama after reading his full statement with four years experience with his presidency is the extent to which his actual actions have focused on the “political issues” of selling his agenda of government as the solution as opposed to the “technical issues that have to be dealt with” with good policy.
There has been no substantial reform of the federal government under his watch, merely it’s continued costly expansion via programs like the PPACA which do not reform the current unsustainable health care system but just expand it to cover more people. David Brooks was fundamentally right in calling it the “Status Quo Sanctification and Extension Act”.
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I think eventually the situation on the ground is going to factor into this and none of these gaffes will make a lick of difference. you have to say something way, way out of bounds — like Akin — for them to stick. It’s up or down on Obama and that’s bad for him. So we’ll find out how incompetent (as a campaigner or as president) you can be and still win. I’m sure the President got a bump out of this latest. and it will be gone by middle of next week. if not sooner.
“What that means then is that as we try to resuscitate this notion that we’re all in this thing together, leave nobody behind, we do have to be innovative in thinking how”
And I’d hammer him on this. Not the idea [which is popular for reason I don’t get :)] but his execution. bonuses for wall street, ineffective HARP for main street. a Fed out of control, etc. Romney is right that Obama has a built in base. you have to drive up his negatives to beat him.
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Changing the subject for the moment, for those who don’t think the new voter ID laws are turning into voter suppression, I’d offer up this excerpt from an article dated July 31st:
And in that context, you’ve got Republicans saying things like this:
Link (caution DJ! Benen!)
In their attempt to solve a problem that doesn’t need solving, Republicans may just have won a battle (which I don’t think they will) but lost the war.
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Conservative media goes apeshit over a real quote pretending it to be in answer to a never asked question and taken out of date:
From Rubin’s column but with many similar assertions:
“That, however, is a decidedly different proposition than Carney’s assertion that the attacks had nothing to do with America or American policy: “But this is not a case of protests directed at the United States writ large or at U.S. policy, but it is in response to video that is offensive to Muslims.”
In fact that quote was not about the Libyan embassy at all or even the initial Egyptian protest. This came from the press briefing on the 14th in response to this question:
“Q Jay, as you know, the unrest in the Middle East is spreading to other embassies — U.S. embassies. The President’s critics are saying this is an indictment of his handling of the Arab Spring, that this has given rise to further inflamed sentiment among Islamists. What’s his response to that?”
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brent:
Yes it’s shocking that Goldman trades against it’s clients interests often using their own proprietary information too. Something like that could cause a problem someday (unless they get bailed out of course)
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DJ–you’re wading around in Rubin’s column? Good way to get slime (or something) all over yourself!
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BTW, jnc, and NoVA–
I’ve poked around in the innards and I can’t figure out how to reset the font size (I found the place that should reset it, but nothing seems to have happened). I’m going to keep poking; this happened a couple of other times and Scott was eventually able to get it to reset, so I know there’s a way. . .
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I’m not sure I follow. The order of events as I understand them are:
1. Embassy attacked on 9/11. We are to believe this is purely a coincidence.
2. Ambassador killed.
3. Everyone blames video and says Romeny’s an ass.
4. President goes to Vegas
5. Riots spread
6. President parties with Jay-Z
7. Libya says we knew and sounded the alarm.
8. US Ambassador to UN doubles down on the video
9. Witnesses reporting, not a riot, not an attack, but a coordinated military strike
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michi
Being fiscally conservative, socially liberal enables me to switch hit between polemic columns
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nova
From Carney’s press briefing 9/12/12, the day after
“Q Jay, does the U.S. — does the White House believe that the attack in Benghazi was planned and premeditated?
MR. CARNEY: It’s too early for us to make that judgment. I think — I know that this is being investigated, and we’re working with the Libyan government to investigate the incident. So I would not want to speculate on that at this time.
Q Are you guys worried about al Qaeda in Libya? They seem to be growing. We just saw a report —
MR. CARNEY: Again, I want to be careful about making statements that are based on speculation about this incident and its causes. It’s under investigation, obviously, and as we find out information that can be made available I’m sure we will.”
Yes the administration most likely the State Department screwed the pooch in Libya. That is a seperate issue than the protests elsewhere.
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In a side note, it’s amazing how inarticulate these media people are sometimes. Their questions sound like they wandered in from doing moive reviews in the Akron Journal.
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‘Popcorn Lung’ Verdict Could Spark Rash of Lawsuits”
With a headline like, you have to read the story:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/49103826
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here’ the full remarks at that presser
http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2012/09/12/press-gaggle-press-secretary-jay-carney-en-route-las-vegas-nv-9122012
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brent and scott:
“Bonds Now a ‘Dangerous’ Investment: Joan Lappin”
http://www.cnbc.com/id/49103706
Liability insurance paid up? Because the Popcorn Lung law firm is going to be coming after you guys next.
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Don Juan:
‘Popcorn Lung’ Verdict Could Spark Rash of Lawsuits”
With a headline like, you have to read the story:
I was actually hesitant to go down that rabbit hole when I saw the headline on NBCNews, but it’s even worse than I thought! If it had been a worker that sued it would have been one thing, but for a jury to conclude that eating the stuff is the same as inhaling the fumes. . .
I can only assume that I will never be able to be tried by a jury of my peers, if this is the usual logic employed by jurors. . .
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And here’s Friday the 14ths remarks. it’s under investigation, but film.
http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2012/09/14/press-briefing-press-secretary-jay-carney-9142012
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it’s under investigation, but film.
?
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Michi, I’m fine with the font size. I was mostly curious about what the cause of the change was.
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sorry. hit post too quickly. i’ll be back to finish my thought
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What turned the market around today I think:
“Now, one Fed policymaker is offering some specific—and surprising—answers. Narayana Kocherlakota, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minnesota, laid out in a speech Thursday what he calls a “contingency plan for liftoff.” Here’s the most important part: He argues that “as long as the [Federal Open Market Committee] satisfies its price stability mandate, it should keep the fed funds rate extraordinarily low until the unemployment rate has fallen below 5.5 percent.”
Yikes! ACK! (and words to that effect)
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and he was up unitl recently thought to be more on the hawkish side:
http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/F/10/scale.swf
Buy gold and guns, and watch “Revolution” the new show on NBC
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Worth a read:
“The Vegetarian
A notorious spymaster becomes a dissident.
by David Remnick September 3, 2012”
http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2012/09/03/120903fa_fact_remnick?currentPage=1
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us 1%ers have our eyes on these.
http://www.missilebases.com/properties
actually, I like the Adirondacks
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DJ:
If I’m interpreting you correctly, hell has frozen over.
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jnc:
yep.
With no expertise in the subject, I get the impression from Netanyahu that he has been caught bluffing and can’t get out of it. There’s apparently no way for the Israelis to conduct a succesful attack without US support, but he’s too far gone down the “we’ll go it alone” road to stop.
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Nova:
actually, I like the Adirondacks
I’d go for the Northern Cascades, myself, but then I’ve always liked the western mountains. Belleville (NOT Bellevue), WA is a lovely place to base out of.
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michi
If they’re serious about the 5.5%, we had all better try to convince our unemployed friends to stop looking for work, in order to lower the rate. Tell them it’s hopeless
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markinaustin,
Is this guy one of your neighbors?
Stay classy, Texas.
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YJ – He lives 7.0 mi from me by car, about 5.5 mi. by black helicopter.
You have a passing acquaintance with Austin. He lives by the Balcones Country Club on US 183 toward Anderson Mill. Probably you will not see him at SXSW or the ACLfest or the Austin Film Fest or the LGBT Fest or on 6th Street. I doubt whether he frequents even the old time clubs, the Continental or the Saxon Pub. My guess: you will never see his shade or hear the sound of his feet.
I am not responsible for ‘ol Bud. I assume there will be a follow-up story where his Neighborhood Association asks him to remove the hanging chair and he refuses. What drama.
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Sure, but I can hike about 500 miles from DC to upstate NY. Washington States a bit harder. I do have a 3 year old take with 🙂
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I’m hoping that Brent, Banned, and Scott aren’t practicing this:
“Astrology guides some financial traders
by Heidi N. Moore
Marketplace for Wednesday, September 19, 2012
http://www.marketplace.org/topics/economy/astrology-guides-some-financial-traders“
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“Senate Passes Brown-Led Bill Cracking Down on Illegal Chinese Currency Manipulation”
http://www.brown.senate.gov/newsroom/press/release/senate-passes-brown-led-bill-cracking-down-on-illegal-chinese-currency-manipulation
Senator Brown, Chairman Bernanke is waiting in your office. He says it’s urgent, and he has a whiteboard with him.
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jnc:
Some days, it couldn’t hurt!
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From jnc’s New Yorker link:
Precisely (emphasis mine).
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NoVA:
I can hike about 500 miles from DC to upstate NY
True dat. But should you decide to get that second home in SLC in order to avoid the coming winter, I can get us to the Cascades if necessary. 🙂
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And, magically, the font is back to normal size. Or, since I’ve got a couple of Frenchmen chatting away behind me (science is great): et, voila!
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http://edition.cnn.com/2012/09/20/world/asia/afghanistan-uk-baby/index.html
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I assume there will be a follow-up story where his Neighborhood Association asks him to remove the hanging chair and he refuses. What drama.
According to a follow-up story, he’s added an American flag to the chair just in case the symbology was too subtle. These are the people who make a First Amendment Absolutist like me shake my head in dismay.
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So now he’s dishonoring the flag? That will get more attention than lynching the chair, which we understand but at least half the people who ride by will not.
The NA rebuke is sure to follow. The NA will probably have an emergency meeting. Fisticuffs will ensue. The 72 YO lynch crazed homeowner and his three friends will go down in a blaze of glory. Perhaps there will be guns.
ESPN has 85 employees and a presence in Austin unmatched by CNN, MSNBC, and FOX.
John Burnett, of NPR, lives here and plays in a band on 6th Street. So the NA meeting will be covered by NPR and taped by ESPN. Watch for it.
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Mark:
So the NA meeting will be covered by NPR and taped by ESPN. Watch for it.
And those are two media outlets that you don’t normally see mentioned together in the same sentence. 🙂
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Kelley, our puffed up NAs think they control our use of our own homes in some neighborhoods and I was sarcastically predicting another Bengazi over by the Balcones CC.
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Mark, Do you ever go to the ACL Festival at Zilker Park?
http://www.aclfestival.com/
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JNC – I have done so many times. I scrounge tix on Craigslist at the last minute, or I have gone as a guest of one of my kids.
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“These are the people who make a First Amendment Absolutist like me shake my head in dismay.”
Notwithstanding the particular case you cited, that’s the only reason you need a 1st Amendment.
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For any possible “West Wing” fans on the blog:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/reliable-source/post/how-michigan-judicial-candidate-bridget-mary-mccormack-got-the-west-wing-cast-for-her-campaign-video/2012/09/20/a2d53326-0347-11e2-91e7-2962c74e7738_blog.html?hpid=z4
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jnc:
How awesome is that!
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Do you think they all worked for scale? Who directed it?
edit – JNC says they worked gratis. Deemed contribution, but at scale.
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My first thought was whether it counted as an “in kind” contribution as the actors donated their time gratis.
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I don’t know campaign finance law, but if it’s anything like non-profit law (like for the RFTC) it would. I’d tell you my favorite line, but I don’t want to spoil it for anyone before they see the video. It really is awesome.
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re: the video “we have to do something. because we can”
That, above anything else, describes the dysfunction of Washington in a nutshell. we don’t know its a problem, let alone understand it, but we can do something.
(And i really dislike party line ballots)
and it picks up on what was in this morning’s National Review’s morning email:
By the way, Washington can change. For the culture of the nation’s capital and our national politics to become less acrimonious, less perpetually furious, more constructive and solution-oriented, politics has to become boring again. It can’t be dueling cults of personality, with the Black Eyed Peas and other celebrities writing songs about our political leaders in messianic tones. It needs to dispel the mythology of The West Wing that the process of writing legislation and crafting policy is dramatic, and always important, and a clash between good and evil, where stirring speeches bring the people to their feet. Honestly, balancing the budget isn’t supposed to be sexy, or exciting, or cool. Most of the details of what comes out of Washington need to be left to the policy wonks, the folks who actually know what they’re talking about.
This is not governing by an un-scrutinized elite, mind you; it’s just that the day-to-day actions of the federal government ought to be largely irrelevant to most of the citizens. It is not healthy to have our politics so dominant in our culture, nor our cultural divisions so central to our politics.
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