Brent Nyitray
Fairlington Blade
Let the mutherfuker burn!
jnc4p
Kevin S. Willis
Michigoose
lmsinca
markinaustin
Arcanaut
novahockey
quarterback
ScottC
yellojktVital Statistics:
| Last | Change | Percent | |
| S&P Futures | 1453.2 | -0.8 | -0.06% |
| Eurostoxx Index | 2563.5 | -20.1 | -0.78% |
| Oil (WTI) | 95.89 | -0.7 | -0.76% |
| LIBOR | 0.379 | -0.002 | -0.53% |
| US Dollar Index (DXY) | 79.08 | 0.073 | 0.09% |
| 10 Year Govt Bond Yield | 1.79% | -0.05% | |
| RPX Composite Real Estate Index | 194.3 | 0.7 |
Markets are lower on the back of a decline in European stocks and a profit warning from Fed Ex. The current account deficit came in lower than expected and foreign purchases of US assets jumped to 67B in July from 9B in June. Bonds and MBS are stronger.
The National Association of Homebuilders Market Index rose to the highest level since early 2007, the latest sign that things are getting better for the homeboys. The Homebuilder ETF (XHB) has been on a tear since the beginning of summer, rallying 21%, but is still 45% off of its bubble highs.
Chart: SPDR S&P Homebuilder’s Index ETF (XHB)
Funny tweet from Bill Gross: Central banks are where bad bonds go to die. The article goes on to discuss whether to be long Treasuries. IMO – obama win, bond bullish, Romney win, bond bearish.
Bloomberg discusses the foreclosure backlog in New Jersey. The upshot – shadow inventory is decreasing everywhere except for the Northeast where judicial foreclosures are slowing the pace of foreclosures and creating a backlog. This is primarily affecting NY, NJ, CT, and PA. Which is why prices are rebounding in Phoenix and still falling in Fairfield County. Wasn’t the plan in Washington to hold foreclosures off the market in the hope that less selling pressure means prices hold up? So much for that theory….
Filed under: Morning Report |
All Things in Moderation 
OK, this gives me a schadenboner.
http://www.nypost.com/p/news/international/america_basher_backfire_dKswUjW6LBShGc2uKrGyIM
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The question is will his family sue the United States Government, the filmmaker or the Chinese flag manufacturer in U.S. Court?
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They’ll sue everybody but the Chinese and win.
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Perhaps we should just drop flags instead of bombs and let nature take its course.
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Another “secret” Romney position that he would be much better served by if he made it directly to the public:
Some things are situations to be managed and contained, not problems to be solved.
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OK, this gives me a schadenboner
One of my great regrets in life will be that I’ll never be able to use this phrase myself. . . you should copyright this, McWing! 🙂
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Has Obama’s foreign policy been a success or failure? Or, is it too soon to tell?
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What part? On anti-terrorism operations I’d argue that Al-Queda is considerably less capable than it was when he took office and continues to be on the defensive.
With regards to Libya, it turned out considerably better than I expected at the onset with the removal of Quadaffi with minimal American involvement.
With regards to Israel/Palestine – Come see the new Israel/Palestine conflict, same as the old Israel/Palestine conflict.
I do believe that an opportunity was missed with the aborted Green revolution in Iran.
Overall, I’d grade Obama’s foreign policy a success, at least in terms of the traditional American standards in the area. For myself, I’d prefer a more isolationist approach especially vis-a-vis the Islamist world, but neither party is advocating for that.
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“Michigoose, on September 18, 2012 at 10:26 am said:
OK, this gives me a schadenboner
One of my great regrets in life will be that I’ll never be able to use this phrase myself. . . you should copyright this, McWing!”
You were Airborne, correct? I think you can go ahead and use it.
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Brent wrote:
Wasn’t the plan in Washington to hold foreclosures off the market in the hope that less selling pressure means prices hold up?
1] Was there a plan, ever?
2] Haven’t the foreclosures been off the market for a long time now?
I am in TX where we had relatively few foreclosures and have a stable and slowly recovering market. I am guessing the first round of failures in greater Phoenix, LV, FL, and CA have been trickling into the market. No?
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You were Airborne, correct?
Yep!
I think you can go ahead and use it.
So now I just need to find an excuse. . .
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“Michigoose, on September 18, 2012 at 11:00 am said:
You were Airborne, correct?
Yep!
I think you can go ahead and use it.
So now I just need to find an excuse. . .”
Perhaps:
“Romney’s leaked video gives you a schadenboner?”
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Understatement of the day:
“Even if QE3 does succeed, it could create some exit-strategy problems for Bernanke or his successor. (His term is up at the end of 2013.) Alan Greenspan’s long tenure demonstrated that it’s easier to switch on the monetary spigots than to switch them off. ”
http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/johncassidy/2012/09/three-reasons-to-cheer-for-bernanke.html
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QE3 is a case of extrapolating or inferring the wrong lesson. Milton Friedman demonstrated that tight money choked the recovery in the 30s. This does not mean that aggressive easy money will cause a recovery now.
I expect bubble opportunities both in real estate and stocks, but I will defer to experts to pick them out.
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Worth a read courtesy of Shrink on PL:
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FYI Mark, I posted the links to the whole “Life of Julia” thing you asked about on PL in the 9/17 thread.
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I just saw it and now I comprendo. Thanx.
About the Eurobank – it too has taken the view that if dieting is bad overeating must be good.
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Michi, I agree w/j, go for it.
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jnc:
Perhaps:
“Romney’s leaked video gives you a schadenboner?”
Close, but not quite up to that level. While I agree with lms that it demonstrates his total disdain for nearly half the American population, I agree with all who say he was just being honest. You know my opinion of his intelligence, so it doesn’t entirely surprise me that he would say something like this and not anticipate the blowback.
I have faith in him that he will rise to schadenboner-hood before the end of the campaign, though!
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Thanks, McWing!
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“Michigoose, on September 18, 2012 at 11:44 am said:
…
You know my opinion of his intelligence, so it doesn’t entirely surprise me that he would say something like this and not anticipate the blowback”
In fairness to Romney, it’s hard to anticipate blowback from a surreptitious video recording that you didn’t know was being made. See also President Obama and the “clinging to guns and religion” blowback.
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best comment I’ve seen on this is:
“I was really undecided this election, until Mitt said people who don’t pay for gov’t are dependent on others,” said nobody.
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“I was really undecided this election, until Mitt said people who don’t pay for gov’t are dependent on others,” said nobody.
I tend to agree. Romney isn’t going to be looking for votes in the inner city any more than obama is going to be trolling for votes in the oil patch.
47% of the country is going to vote for obama, no matter what. 47% of the country is going to vote for Romney, no matter what. It is that last 6% that are up for grabs, and I suspect that last 6% is going to vote for who they think is going to make their economic life better – obama or Romney.
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47% of the country is going to vote for Romney, no matter what.
Actually, I think that some of this 47% will vote for Johnson (nationwide) or Goode (Virginia).
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Good point. 47% will vote for obama no matter what, and 47% will vote against obama no matter what.
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“Brent Nyitray, on September 18, 2012 at 12:18 pm said:
…
47% of the country is going to vote for obama, no matter what. 47% of the country is going to vote for Romney, no matter what. It is that last 6% that are up for grabs, and I suspect that last 6% is going to vote for who they think is going to make their economic life better – obama or Romney.”
I’m not as impressed with the great swing/undecided voter’s decision making process. Someone made an argument about ‘likeability’ being determinative for that group and I think it’s accurate.
Also, if we get through the entire election without a single Romney ad featuring the stimulus unemployment prediction chart juxtaposed with the actual unemployment rate, then his campaign team is completely incompetent.
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Johnson had an event and about 40 people attended. he’s on the ballot in VA too and currently polling at about 4% according to a poll the post has up. but it has GOP sample at 24%. which is ridiculously low.
Johnson should be pulling support from Obama on civil liberty issues. Or those voters should be supporting the Greens, who are polling at about 1%.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/polling/obama-leads-romney-virginia-washington-post/2012/09/18/fc0bc590-01ad-11e2-bbf0-e33b4ee2f0e8_page.html
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and 47% will vote against obama no matter what.
And if they cost Romney the election by voting for Johnson or Goode instead, that
would lead to a schadenboner.
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My comment on this overblown story was that the people who are going to vote for Mitt already believe they are the 53%, regardless what taxes they actually pay.
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My comment on this overblown story was that the people who are going to vote for Mitt already believe they are the 53%, regardless what taxes they actually pay.
Reminds me of Steinbeck’s “The problem with the poor in America is that they think they are temporarily embarrassed millionaires.”
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And if they cost Romney the election by voting for Johnson or Goode instead, that
would lead to a schadenboner.
If it weren’t for Perot and Nader, we wouldn’t have had a President Clinton or Bush II
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Ironically, it was Stanley Greenberg of all people who came up with what Romney’s message should have been months ago:
Rather than explicitly go with 47% vs 53% he should have done the responsible vs irresponsible meme.
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Actually I wish Romney would say something like:
“Of course I care about the middle class and the poor. An improving economy will do more for them than any marginal bump in government spending will. This administration listens solely to academics and policy wonks and cannot figure out why their regulations are hurting the economy. They dismiss industry objections as self-serving and suspect. This administration has believed that artificially manipulating the housing markets and interest rates is helping the economy improve. The net result is that six years after the bust, house prices are still falling in parts of the country and rising commodity prices are claiming an even higher percentage of disposable income. Yet the president still supports more manipulation by the Fed and more make-work programs. Japan has followed that prescription for over 20 years and they are still stuck in a slow-growth morass. Why this president thinks our experience will be any different is beyond me.
The president continues to ask me “What is my plan?” Actually, Mr. President, it is to stop doing what you are doing. Let’s take our hands off the housing market and let it heal. Let’s tell the financial sector what the ground rules are and let them get back to business. Let’s get the Federal Reserve out of the central planning business and let interest rates rise to what the market believes they should be. Let’s rid the tax code of gimmicks, special favors and other outdated and ineffective incentives which distort our behaviors and make tax accounting a drag on the economy. Let’s bring back earnings parked overseas with a tax holiday, provided 50% of the savings is spent on increasing payroll.
I do not consider business to be inherently sinister. I will not reflexively dismiss the concerns of business. I will be aware of the unintended consequences of regulation. I will listen to more than academics and policy wonks. Businesses are sitting on their hands and their cash, waiting for the storm to be over. Let’s end the storm. It doesn’t have to be this way. We can do better.”
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He Who Shall Not Be Named has a new post up:
“A Rare Look at Why The Government Won’t Fight Wall Street
Matt TaibbiPOSTED: September 18, 10:28 AM ET”
http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/blogs/taibblog/a-rare-look-at-why-the-government-wont-fight-wall-street-20120918
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jnc:
He Who Shall Not Be Named
Not that I would want you to stop using this fast-on-its-way-to-becoming-a cliche, but you are aware that it’s not the mentioning of his name that anyone has objected to, aren’t you?
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“Romney’s problem isn’t that he’s a bad candidate. It’s that he’s a conservative one.”
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/
Ezra’s problem is that the piece he wrote proves the opposite of the headline.
Whether or not a genuine conservative could win the presidency is an open and problematic question. However it’s for certain that a candidate who obviously doesn’t believe what he says (or possibly doesn’t believe anything) never learned the secret about faking sincerity and is by definition a bad candidate.
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Brent, you should E-mail that to them. It’s 100 times better than his standard stump speech.
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Brent, you should E-mail that to them. It’s 100 times better than his standard stump speech
I actually googled that because Brent had put it in quotes. Not that I thought Brent was incapable of coming up with something so good. The quotes just threw me off.
JNC- I was talking with a couple partners at work today who both know I’m liberal and they could not believe it when I mentioned being intrigued by the flat tax idea. I have to admit that I am becoming increasingly tempted to vote for Gary Johnson.
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I actually did just email that to someone on his campaign…
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Brent:
Actually I wish Romney would say something like:
“Of course I care about the middle class and the poor. . .
He’d have to actually care, and other than in a basic humanitarian way, I haven’t seen any evidence that he does. He’s willing to gut the social services net in order to benefit the MIC, big business, and the already wealthy if you look at his “principles” that he’s going to base his specific policies on.
In a perfect world we’d have a politician who said what you said and meant it. Hey, haven’t I already suggested that you run??!? 🙂
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Thanks Michi…
Do I dare post that in PL?
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Brent:
Only if you want Liam, ruk, fiona, and Chris to pile on!
Might be an interesting sociological experiment. . . let me know if you do–I’ll go over and lurk just to see what happens! And if I end up jumping in in your defense, we might need NoVA or jnc to come dig us out.
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Worth noting and thanking the Russians for getting our astronauts back to Earth safely, given that the United States is currently incapable of manned space flight.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/innovations/post/soyuz-capsule-lands-in-kazakhstan-brings-american-two-russians-back-to-earth/2012/09/17/a48e4102-00c8-11e2-b260-32f4a8db9b7e_blog.html
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“Michigoose, on September 18, 2012 at 1:09 pm said:
Brent:
Only if you want Liam, ruk, fiona, and Chris to pile on!
Might be an interesting sociological experiment. . . let me know if you do–I’ll go over and lurk just to see what happens! And if I end up jumping in in your defense, we might need NoVA or jnc to come dig us out.”
I’ve ceased posting there in solidarity with banned.
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Brent’s letter was excellent and it just shows an investment banker can have the common touch! 🙂
Jnc, what would you think of flat taxing corporate net income at 28% but permitting the corporation to deduct dividends paid, while recognizing dividends received as ordinary income?
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I actually had a decent conversation with Sue last night, but I had to just ignore what ddawd, cao, and beach had to say.
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I’ve ceased posting there in solidarity with banned.
Maybe we’d be able to recruit Mark to help with a rescue effort. . .
I actually rarely post anymore, but I go read Greg’s pieces and generally skip the comments.
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and beach
Yes, that lovely gentleman is back. . . I was teasing okie about interacting with him, and she admitted that she wasn’t quite sure why she was doing that. And he is still the world’s expert on everything.
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A tweet by NRO’s Jim Geraghty:
“@jimgeraghty: U.S. EMBASSY IN KABUL SHUTS DOWN OPERATIONS http://t.co/IUDRd53f ; OBAMA TO APPEAR ON ‘LETTERMAN’ TONIGHT”
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Full Romney video is now up:
http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2012/09/watch-full-secret-video-private-romney-fundraiser
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OBAMA TO APPEAR ON ‘LETTERMAN’ TONIGHT
Your point, McWing?
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My point is that it’s obvious what the press should focus on, Romney’s so-called gaffe.
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Well, a quick check of NBCNews.com, CNN, and Bloomberg show that you’re getting your wish 67% of the time (NBCNews’ biggest headline right now is “Poll: Optimism Grows About Obama’s Path”), but Reuter’s headline might be setting him up for another retrenching:
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ashot:
BTW, v2.0 is adorable!!!!! That is a great picture of him!
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BTW, v2.0 is adorable!!!!!
Thanks!! We think so, too.
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I consider it an inside joke between myself and lmsinca.
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jnc:
I consider it an inside joke between myself and lmsinca.
It’s not all that inside.
BTW, that was by far the most tempered comment of his that I have ever read.
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“markinaustin, on September 18, 2012 at 2:32 pm said:
Brent’s letter was excellent and it just shows an investment banker can have the common touch! 🙂
Jnc, what would you think of flat taxing corporate net income at 28% but permitting the corporation to deduct dividends paid, while recognizing dividends received as ordinary income?”
Do you mean this in the context of the existing system with everything else remaining the same or in a hypothetical flat tax world?
In the context of a flat tax world, I tend to eschew carve outs as they open the door for arbitrage of the tax rates. The moment you tax advantage one type of income over another, you incentive schemes to re-characterize the income.
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JNC, I was trying to use the flat tax idea that dividends should be taxed to the recipient like any other income to justify doing away with double taxation by permitting dividends to be deducted by the corp. I suppose that flat taxing corporate net with personal gross income makes some sense in the instance of the closely held entity. That wasn’t the point. I just picked a % that makes American corps competitive.
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Rep Sander Levin is on CNBC right now, doing an excellent imitation of a nursing home resident who falls asleep mid sentencet.
What is it with you Michigan people that your grandfather’s Congressional representative is good enough for you
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zzzzzzzzzzzzzzz…….. from, Sleeping in Detroit.
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“Did Jesus have a wife?”
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/under-god/post/jesus-had-a-wife-coptic-writing-the-new-da-vinci-code/2012/09/18/c0361072-01c4-11e2-b260-32f4a8db9b7e_blog.html?hpid=z3
. . . and if so, what kind of contraception did they use?
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John Dingel was my rep when I was living there!
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. . and if so, what kind of contraception did they use?
The immaculate kind.
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The hosts were being as patient with him as when you ask an old person what they want for dinner and they tell you about a resturant they went to during the Depression that had the best chicken pot pie ever.
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mich:
I would have been as disappointed if you missed that one, as a batting practice pitcher who strikes a guy out.
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John Dingell was the rep when Henry Ford was living there.
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*grins*
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One key insight to understanding and appreciating Matt Taibbi’s writing style is to realize that stylistically he approaches all topics as if they were sports:
“A Fan’s Desperate Plea to Red Sox Owner John Henry
Why following your team has become emotionally impossible”
By Matt Taibbi
September 14, 2012 1:20 PM ET
http://www.rollingstone.com/culture/news/a-fans-desperate-plea-to-red-sox-owner-john-henry-20120914
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“markinaustin, on September 18, 2012 at 3:10 pm said:
JNC, I was trying to use the flat tax idea that dividends should be taxed to the recipient like any other income to justify doing away with double taxation by permitting dividends to be deducted by the corp. I suppose that flat taxing corporate net with personal gross income makes some sense in the instance of the closely held entity. That wasn’t the point. I just picked a % that makes American corps competitive.”
I’m aware of the issues with double taxation of dividends, but I can’t figure out a way to address it in the context of a total flat tax system without also incentivizing self incorporation. I tend to view it as a matter of pick your poison and that the economic benefits of radical simplification of the tax code and reducing as much as possible the opportunities for arbitrage of the rates outweigh the costs of the double taxation of corporate income/dividends.
To be precise, I’d apply the same flat rate to line 11 (Total income) on the 1120 and line 22 (total income) on the 1040.
With regards to what the appropriate rate level is, it’s whatever is necessary to balance the budget. To spend is to tax.
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JNC, making dividends deductible in the close or personal corp would only have the effect of making Sub-S unnecessary.
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Actually I wish Romney would say something like:
Brent for Prez! Or at least WMR’s campaign manager.
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Just when you think Romney may be a closet libertarian, Ezra Klein does a reality check:
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Interesting. Social media meets insider trading?
“The Return of Facebook’s Winklevoss Twins
By JOHN JANNARONE”
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390444433504577651750662070974.html?mod=WSJ_hp_mostpop_read
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Dang. AAPL ends the day over $700. It’s the iPhone stimulus!
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Looks like the lame duck may be starting early:
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It’s the iPhone stimulus!
Does that make me un-American since I’ve never owned one and don’t intend to buy one any time soon?
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Talk to Paul Krugman. It’s your patriotic duty to spend money for it’s own sake, regardless of any value the things you spend it on actually bring you. Aggregate Demand and all that.
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The moment you tax advantage one type of income over another, you incentive schemes to re-characterize the income.
Yes. A thousands times yes. Money is fungible. It becomes whatever people (and their accountants) want it to be.
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Worth noting:
“D.C. schools set new achievement targets for students by race and income
By Emma Brown, Tuesday, September 18, 10:06 PM”
http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/education/student-achievement-targets-vary-by-race-income-in-dc-and-many-states/2012/09/18/3b306568-fd13-11e1-8adc-499661afe377_story.html?hpid=z2
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I’m shocked that the benefits of QE would be captured by intermediaries and not passed on to customers:
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