Brent Nyitray
Fairlington Blade
Let the mutherfuker burn!
jnc4p
Kevin S. Willis
Michigoose
lmsinca
markinaustin
Arcanaut
novahockey
quarterback
ScottC
yellojktVital Statistics:
| Last | Change | Percent | |
| S&P Futures | 1431.7 | 5.3 | 0.37% |
| Eurostoxx Index | 2521.7 | -6.8 | -0.27% |
| Oil (WTI) | 96.72 | 0.2 | 0.19% |
| LIBOR | 0.399 | -0.006 | -1.36% |
| US Dollar Index (DXY) | 80.23 | -0.172 | -0.21% |
| 10 Year Govt Bond Yield | 1.68% | 0.02% | |
| RPX Composite Real Estate Index | 193.1 | 0.2 |
Markets are stronger this morning after the government sold a stake in AIG and the National Federation of Independent Businesses noted an increase in optimism. Deutsche Bank is looking to cut $6 billion in expenses by 2015. The trade deficit shrunk from 44B to 42B. Bonds are up 7 ticks, while MBS are down a couple.
The National Federation of Independent Business released their Small Business Optimism Report for September, which showed improvement, but is still solidly in recession territory. On the positive side, hiring plans are the best they have been in years; but on the negative side, they aren’t hiring now. It also weighs in on QE, asking the obvious question: “Is anyone not hiring because interest rates are too high?” They also note that “political uncertainty” is at a new high – 22% of respondents cited that as a reason they are sitting on their hands. That said some pizza parlor owners must be doing okay.
Chart: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index:
Fannie’s first sale of REO-to-Rentals traded at 96% of BPO. That is an eye-popping number, given that distressed pools have been trading in the mid / high 60s, but this is an oddball transaction – the buyer (Pacifica) will participate in a JV with Fannie, will put up under 16% of the purchase price, manage the properties, split the cash flows with Fannie and will receive a management fee. It seems odd that Fannie is basically buying properties from itself – Pacifica puts up 12.3MM, while Fannie puts up the rest. Let me guess, there is a mark-to-market angle here…
FHFA and F&F have launched a new Reps and Warranties framework for conventional loans sold after Jan 1. Put-Back risk – the risk that the government could come after you and force you to re-purchase a loan if the borrower starts missing payments – has been weighing on mortgage bankers and explains why banks have put such stringent overlays on F&F loans. The government will release banks from this requirement if the loan pays consistently for 36 months. For HAMP loans, it will be 12 months. Co-incidentally, Congress has a re-introduced a bill to expand HARP refis which may contain language regarding the Qualified Mortgage safe harbor provision. The QM has been a big source of uncertainty for lenders. Finally specifying what constitutes are qualified mortgage could go a long way towards getting mortgage credit flowing again.
Redwood is doing another deal – $312 million of jumbos – the 9th deal since the market froze in 2008. Only 9 jumbo securitizations in 4 years. Probably $2 billion in total. To put that number in perspective, non-agency deals topped 1.2 trillion in 2004 and 2005.
Filed under: Morning Report |
All Things in Moderation 
brent and scott
This may be of interest to you:
“Is BlackRock Kissing Individual Bonds Goodbye? ”
http://www.cnbc.com/id/48973149
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Crowdsourcing works wonders:
http://intrepidusgroup.com/insight/2012/09/tracking-udid-src/
Referenced here from
http://daringfireball.net/
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jnc:
Did you understand that? I got very lost.
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Whistleblowing pays:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/courts_law/irs-pays-whistleblower-104-million-for-providing-information-about-overseas-tax-cheats/2012/09/11/a2c9eade-fc21-11e1-98c6-ec0a0a93f8eb_story.html
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“bannedagain5446, on September 11, 2012 at 9:28 am said:
jnc:
Did you understand that? I got very lost.”
Yes. The researcher used pattern analysis to identify the root source of the iPhone identification data that was (allegedly) stolen from the hacked FBI laptop and trace it back to a specific application and the company that developed it.
The great thing about throwing something on the Internet for people to figure out is that there are a lot of them who are smarter than we are and have more time on their hands to do so just for the challenge of it.
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Krugman attempts to make the case that upgrading your cell phone to an improved model is the economic equilivent of smashing windows just to replace them. I don’t think he succeeds.
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/11/broken-windows-and-the-iphone-5/
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parable_of_the_broken_window
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In the great annuals of the obvious:
Here’s the quote for you Banned:
This should be kept in mind every time some economist recommends adding even more debt to stimulate the economy under the theory that “borrowing is cheap”.
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Worth noting:
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A contrarian take on the Clinton economy of the 1990’s that’s worth a read:
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The Clinton boom began with the Greenspan Put. It lasted through the bursting of the real estate bubble. It was fun while it lasted…
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jnc:
I tried to make the case in Ezra’s column that the 800 billion projected savings on debt payments in Obama’s deficit reduction plan were illusory because interest rates will triple over the next decade at least. I was escorted out of the room figuratively speaking because we all know that financially speaking everything will always be the way it is today.
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jnc:
But does that make the theory that the FBI is tracking the numbers more or less plausible? Could they have used that app to make thier access?
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More on the question of repurchase of loans requests by the FHFA/GSEs and how that is about to change as cited by Brent above:
“Regulator Claims New Rules Will Loosen Mortgage Lending”
http://www.cnbc.com/id/48988843
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Benin makes an ass out of himself . . . again.
“It appears, then, the political norms have shifted. In, say, 2008, it would have been largely unthinkable that partisans would go after the sitting president, during a war, on the anniversary of 9/11. Those who tried would expect to be condemned, at a minimum, for their insensitivity.”
http://maddowblog.msnbc.com/_news/2012/09/11/13806211-911-politicking-makes-an-unexpected-comeback?threadId=3562972&commentId=69877216#c69877216
BUT on the other hand
“Obama References Bush Failings On 9/11: “Let Us Remember That The Terrorists Responsible For 9/11 Are Still At Large”
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/09/11/obama-digs-bush-let-us-re_n_125601.html
OOPS!
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So embarassing that it was Benin’s own network, indeed the very show that Benin now works on under new managment so to speak, that did EXACTLY what he says was never done before, a scant 4 years ago.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bk0Ac_oN_Zo
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While I can’t stand Jim Cramer (I’ve tried to watch his show to learn a little bit more about finance and just can’t handle more than about three minutes), he does have a bully pulpit and might be able to make the issue of new voter ID laws more widely known.
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And another secretary of state abandons the effort:
Emphasis mine; I think that’s really the issue with many of these laws. They grew out of the 2010 mid-terms when so many ultra-conservatives were elected to the state houses and started agitating for things like this; in many cases there isn’t enough time to allow voters to either (1) get the newly required ID or (2) prove whether or not they’re eligible to vote.
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Wonder if we could get these guys under RICO?
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In what sense? RICO doesn’t apply to Afghanistan, plus we already kill Taliban on sight.
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“bannedagain5446, on September 11, 2012 at 12:13 pm said:
jnc:
But does that make the theory that the FBI is tracking the numbers more or less plausible? Could they have used that app to make thier access?”
It provides supporting detail. It also could imply that the file itself may have come to the FBI as a result of a separate data breach of the developer. I.e. part of an ongoing investigation.
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RICO doesn’t apply to Afghanistan
I know, I know, I was just making a (lame, evidently) joke.
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Michi,
It is hard to tell from how it is written but it appears that 12% of the 4000 were not citizens (approx 480) which is a percentage that would have voted that should not have. What his letter asked people to do was to fill out the form on the back of the letter he sent which required them to affirm they are a citizen and then provide contact info and a driver’s license number. Since the letter went out to only those people that applied for a driver’s license (after they registered to vote), providing ID should not have been a problem for anybody who got these letters.
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Dave:
No, those 482 proved that they were citizens, there are only 141 who are still in question (0.04% of those originally challenged). But there isn’t time to figure out if they’re duly registered citizens or not because there isn’t time to process all of the challenges in court. In this case, it’s not so much whether or not they have ID so much as it is that the challenge came so late in the election cycle that the bureaucracy can’t handle the load. If they had worked on all of these voter ID laws for the 2014 cycle it wouldn’t have been a problem, but they’re trying to ram all of them through for 2012. If the vote is close I predict a class-action lawsuit in every state that changed their rules between 2010 and 2012.
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for those planning ahead:
“Worst States for Retirement 2011”
http://www.money-rates.com/research-center/worst-states-for-retirement/2011.htm?WT.qs_osrc=HFP-27828210
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Maryland is #6 and you’re still there??
Mark and okie, check out the list of the best states!
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have to wait until my high taxes get my kids through the public schools!
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Ryan 2016
Saw on the news that some conservatives are starting to say that if we can’t win this time it’s the end of the Republican Party (LImbaugh, Trump, Will) Of course that’s not true, but for Ryan the 2016 problem is presuming they do lose, what is his appeal going forward?
Can anybody honestly make the case if the GOP loses it’s because they weren’t conservative enough? So you see what does Ryan have to offer in a 2016 primary, that he REALLY isn’t as conservative as all the things he’s said, OT that being more conservative is the answer?
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Thanks for pointing that out, Michi. Truthfully, okieland is a pretty good place to live if you don’t mind rural and you don’t mind the political climate. Oklahoma was not always this red, not even during my adult lifetime, and I have hope that it will some day return to some sense of moderation. After all, we gave the country the likes of Carl Albert. I’ve told this before, but . . .
If you will recall, Carl Albert was Speaker of the House during Watergate. With Agnew gone, there was a point in time when it looked entirely possible that he would become President if Nixon were to be impeached. His response was that he would decline succession because he believed that if it came to it the successor to the Presidency should be of the same party as the elected President. Can you imagine ANY politician today having such ethics?
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I remember that, Okie. He was a gentleman.
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mark, I truly miss politicians with that kind of moral compass. They are looking out for the public’s interests rather than their own or, as in this case, possibly to their personal detriment.
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From PL
“Today in right wing media, courtesy of Steve Benen: Fox News manages to conclude that the unemployment rate doubled while Obama was in office. ”
All the while he endlessly repeats the lie that we have lost more government jobs than any area of the economy since the start of the recession.
His nickname should be “one way”.
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“Actually, you can see several points: federal employment is a small part of the picture and per capita is at a historic low; there are blips every 10 years for the census; and overall government employment has fallen in an unprecedented way under Obama.”
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/11/exploding-government/
In order to keep the lie going that Federal employment has not increased under Obama
Krugman plays bait and switch using Federal employment per capita in his chart and his argument
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