TRES FAUX MORNING REPORT 7/24/12

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10 Year Govt Bond Yield 1.45% -.025%
POLITICO reports that: In the midst of a severe drought, the House Republican leaders are proposing to walk away from farm states and decades of precedent by not calling up the new five-year plan before the current law expires Sept. 30.
Read more:
Watched Geithner on Charlie Rose last night.  He speaks with certainty about the uncertain.  It’s not yet internet available.

44 Responses

  1. Hey Mark, thanks for holding down the fort with your morning reports……………….appreciate it. Hopefully, I’ll have more time to weigh in later today.

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  2. Jennifer Rubin rises to a new level of incoherence today

    “Romney’s background in business, with the Olympics and as governor of Massachusetts, suggest he is well equipped to wring out excess costs at the Pentagon while modernizing our aging fleet and airplanes. The rebuilding of American ships will in and of itself communicate to the Chinese that we are serious about defending our interests in Asia.”

    The “rebuilding” of the world’s largest military will tell the Chinese that we are serious about buying the steel and borrowing the money from the Chinese to defend our interests in Asia, our biggest trading partner the Chinese from agression by the Chinese

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  3. Greg is a very passionate but economically ignorant well movitvated columnist.

    Hard to blame the guy for what he doesn’t know, except when he tries to pretend he does.

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  4. The farm subsidies going away would actually be “Change I Can Believe In”.

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  5. It seems a Spanish bank has fallen on me, and I can’t get up.

    Please call a doctor, (preferably a German one)

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  6. J, here’s a link to a Tea Party group trying to block the Farm Bill,

    http://thehill.com/blogs/on-the-money/budget/239535-tea-party-group-goes-after-gopers-supporting-farm-bill-

    As Milton Friedman said: ““I do not believe that the solution to our problem is simply to elect the right people. The important thing is to establish a political climate of opinion which will make it politically profitable for the wrong people to do the right thing. Unless it is politically profitable for the wrong people to do the right thing, the right people will not do the right thing either, or if they try, they will shortly be out of office.”

    Unfortunately there will probably be a massive stampeded to the trough post election, regardless of the victors.

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  7. Looks like it costs less to cover fewer people:

    “CBO: Supreme Court ruling cuts cost of health-care law by $84B”

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  8. OT: Today’s Fresh Air is highly recommended.

    “‘The Twilight War’ Between The U.S. And Iran
    July 24, 2012

    In The Twilight War, government historian David Crist outlines the secret history of America’s 30-year conflict with Iran. The book, based on interviews with hundreds of officials as well as classified military archives, details how the covert war has spanned five American presidential terms and repeatedly threatened to bring the two nations into open warfare.

    Crist tells Fresh Air’s Terry Gross that there have been several incidents that have almost resulted in battle over the past 30 years.”

    http://www.npr.org/2012/07/24/157248254/the-twilight-war-between-the-u-s-and-iran

    My conclusion – confrontation with Iran is based on national interests and not specific personalities.

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  9. Apple Delivers a Big Earnings Miss; Outlook Disappoints”

    We’re gonna get crushed tomorrow and they’ll be jumping off bridges in China

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  10. “A couple from Missouri, who didn’t initially want to talk to Johnson, chatted with him briefly about the Second Amendment. “What Aurora did for me, personally,” said Johnson, “is that I’m going and getting a concealed carry permit.”

    Did Johnson worry what would happen if multiple armed people tried to stop a gunman in a movie theater? “Just speaking for myself,” he said, “if I had the potential of stopping it, I would have done it.”

    http://www.slate.com/blogs/weigel/2012/07/24/libertarian_presidential_candidate_gary_johnson_aurora_shootings_make_me_want_to_carry_a_gun.html

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  11. Just speaking for myself, if I knew a bunch of strangers were carrying concealed weapons into a theater, I’d be watching movies at home from now on. There’s a reason I live in CA. Oh, and I won’t be looking with interest at Gary Johnson any more either.

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  12. I almost never read Politico but Roger Simon has a blistering piece up today.

    Now, in front of the cameras and a small crowd Sunday, he stood in a blue suit, with no tie, his shirt collar open. It was about 8:45 p.m. East Coast time, and there was the beginning of stubble on his chin.

    It was not his words that got to me, though they were simple and powerful: “Scripture says that ‘He will wipe away every tear from their eyes, and death shall be no more.’”

    No, it was a few minutes later, when Obama described a teenager who had been shot in the neck by a bullet, and Obama put his hand to his throat to mark the spot and, as he kept talking, let his fingers linger there.

    It was wrenching, touching, dramatic, sincere.

    And baloney.

    Not baloney because he was not moved by the terrible violence, not baloney because he did not feel for all the dead, their loved ones and the survivors. No, all those things were real to him.

    What was baloney is that he intends to do nothing about preventing it in the future.

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    • What was baloney is that he intends to do nothing about preventing it in the future.

      What does Simon suggest be done?

      I suppose some nominee from some obscure party would jump on the gun control bandwagon after this, but Simon knows it won’t be a R or D.

      Doesn’t make public compassion baloney.

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  13. I read the accounts of four young men killed in that theater who died shielding their loved ones. Those guys are heroes, not some blowhard (sorry if that’s too strong) who says what he’d do if he had a gun. I keep remembering the one guy in the crowd who had a gun at the Gifford shooting who almost shot an innocent bystander.

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  14. That ‘s interesting Lms, in all seriousness I’d actually feel safer if I knew at least some, if not all, movie goers were armed.

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  15. I don’t know mark, Clinton managed to do something didn’t he? I happen to love compassion but it rings somewhat shallow if we can’t even manage a discussion about gun control or large magazines for “personal” use, or assault rifles or whatever.

    I know it won’t ever happen, I conceded the fight a long time ago and it’s a waste of breath to ignite it again, but I just had to say something about it so the record is clear. I hate guns, I hate that so many people think they need them, and I hate that we can’t even have a rational discussion for fear of stepping on the toes of the 2nd Amendment.

    Those of us who abhor the easy access to weapons will some day be hiding behind the walls of our homes in fear of complete strangers carrying loaded weapons. And we wonder why so many cops shoot first and ask questions later.

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    • I support better training requirements and enforcing licensing standards and making gun show sales subject to gun shop rules. If we could have a way to know who will go nuts, that would help, but we don’t. And yes, I think specially permitting long clips would make sense and be constitutional.

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  16. McWing

    I’d actually feel safer if I knew at least some, if not all, movie goers were armed.

    I would simply ask how you would determine who was entitled to carry a gun? Holmes managed to amass a fairly large arsenal without even a background check from what I’ve read and only 6000 rounds of ammunition, poor guy. I don’t actually even care if some people want guns in their homes for protection, or enjoy target practice or hunting, but having people walking around on the street carrying weapons is IMO a recipe for disaster.

    I understand it’s a minority opinion apparently but it really is one of the reasons I live in CA. I grew up in the wild west but none of the family ever cared a whit about guns other than the occasional hunter and I was never interested in that, as you might imagine.

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  17. Yahoo News

    Four Democrats have come forward in the wake of the mass shooting in Aurora, Colo. to voice support for new legislation aimed to combat gun violence.

    Colorado Rep. Diana DeGette, New York Rep. Carolyn McCarthy and New Jersey Sen. Bob Menendez joined Sen. Frank Lautenberg of New Jersey Tuesday to voice support for Lautenberg’s bill outlawing the sale of high-capacity gun magazines.

    “I hope that this does spark a national conversation about where we go in terms of reasonable gun control measures,” Menendez told reporters gathered for a press conference on the issue. “So that no one like Alex Teves, who grew up in New Jersey and found himself in Colorado, will ever again be gunned down by a man who could build an arsenal with a click of a mouse and have it delivered to his door by the cart load–ammunition, high capacity clips, explosives, bomb-making materials–all within the law.”

    “I think the world is watching,” Menendez added.

    As Yahoo News reported, the issue of gun control emerged this weekend in downballot races around the country, but most lawmakers, including those at the White House, have not expressed a desire to push for gun control legislation in the wake of the tragedy.

    Democratic Sen. Dianne Feinstein this weekend cautioned politicians against wading into the issue in an election year.”It’s a bad time to embrace a new subject,” the California lawmaker and gun control advocate said on “Fox News Sunday.”

    The Democrats speaking out Tuesday urged their colleagues to join them to address gun violence. They also rejected reporters’ questions about why they were taking up an issue that appeared to have little chance of passage this session.

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  18. BTW everyone, I’m back. I’ve been on something of a medical leave but have basically been given a clean bill of health from my doctors after some rather grueling tests and whatnot. Looks like I’m good for another 20 years, God willing.

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  19. Thanks Mark, now if we can get Scott back here, maybe I can give him a run for his money……………………however doubtful that is. 🙂

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  20. VA is an interesting place. I’ve seen people locking up their guns in their cars before they go into a movie theater, because the theater bans them. but the bar next door does not (can’t drink obviously)

    my brother is looking into getting his CCW now. not that it is a new idea for him, but this incident pushed him over the edge. granted, he works in the defense industry and his co-workers are former Navy SEALs and have offered to train him — seriously train him. so there’s that.

    i would, but my wife said no a long time ago. i haven’t even brought it up, b/c i know what the answer would be. but i passed the test a couple of years ago. it wasn’t difficult, but you had to pass a written and practical. had to hit the target standing, kneeling, and prone with both your strong and weak hand. clear a malfunction and perform a rapid reload. the instructor handed you the gun and you had to get 5 shots on target in like 20 seconds. but you didn’t know how many bullets were loaded. but i also think this test went beyond the state requirement.

    the real focus of the class was the use of deadly force requirement. you really can’t unless is absolute worse case scenario. it’s run or hide first and even second.

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  21. “but having people walking around on the street carrying weapons is IMO a recipe for disaster.”

    i’ve stopped counting here. open carry is legal but rare. less so than it was a few years ago. concealed — if you look carefully, you sometimes can tell. granted a lot of them may be some sort of law enforcement, which we have more than our fare share of in the DC area. but anytime i go out, there’s more than a few people armed wherever i go. grocery store, diner, etc. and i’m in blue NoVA. i’d imagine it’s even more pronounced it what is not so affectionately known as ROVA (rest of VA)

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  22. there’s more than a few people armed wherever i go

    That would absolutely freak me out, I’m not kidding. It would be a culture shock unlike any other to me. When our daughter was in Midland, TX working last summer she found it bizarre and unsettling to see people who weren’t cops walking around with guns in plain sight. Of course Midland was bizarre in other ways as well. We’ve led a sheltered life here in CA I guess.

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  23. oh! just saw your other note. glad you’re back and doing well.

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  24. Thanks Nova………………….I feel lucky. It’s been an interesting experience being enmeshed in the medical complex for the last six months. I could tell some interesting insurance and hospital stories but I probably won’t. The biggest shock was getting my hospital bill for three days where the charges added up to $37,000 but the approved cost was a little over $7000 per Blue Cross and so they paid $4000 and I paid $3000. It was similar when my husband was in for surgery on his broken leg. I’d be curious what someone without insurance would pay.

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  25. Re guns and the 2nd Amendment, I read this yesterday and discovered a few interesting new facts that I wasn’t really aware of previously.

    According to research by professors David Law and Mila Vertsteeg, 97 percent of all the world’s constitutions now protect the freedom of religion; 97 percent protect the freedom of speech and press; 97 percent protect a right of equality; 97 percent protect the right to private property; 95 percent protect the freedom against unreasonable searches; 94 percent protect the right of assembly; 94 percent prohibit arbitrary arrest or detention; 84 percent forbid cruel and unusual punishment; 84 percent protect the right to vote; 80 percent prohibit ex post facto laws; 72 percent protect the right to present a defense; and 70 percent protect the right to counsel. These freedoms, which were first constitutionalized in the United States, are now widely recognized as fundamental to a free, humane and civilized society.

    On the other hand, only 1 percent of all the other nations of the world recognize a constitutional right to keep and bear arms. Of the 188 nations with written constitutions, only Mexico and Guatemala have followed our example.

    Every other nation has rejected the notion that individuals have a constitutional right to own guns. This includes such diverse nations as England, China, Brazil, Iceland, India, Portugal, Turkey, Kenya, Israel, Indonesia, Russia, New Zealand, Pakistan, Germany, Argentina, Vietnam, Canada, Japan, Hondouras, Poland, South Africa, Norway, France — and 162 others. The idea that individuals have a fundamental right to purchase and possess firearms has been resoundingly rejected by 185 of the world’s 188 nations. There are few, if any, questions about which the world’s nations are in such universal agreement.

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  26. Glad you are recovered and doing better lmsinca.

    With regards to this:

    “lmsinca, on July 24, 2012 at 8:00 pm said:

    McWing

    I’d actually feel safer if I knew at least some, if not all, movie goers were armed.

    I would simply ask how you would determine who was entitled to carry a gun? Holmes managed to amass a fairly large arsenal without even a background check from what I’ve read and only 6000 rounds of ammunition, poor guy. “

    I believe you are mistaken. From what I’ve read, he purchased his guns at the national chain outdoorsman stores, background checks were conducted and he passed just fine.

    “July 20, 2012 5:48 PM
    Colo. shooter purchased guns legally from 3 different stores
    By Michelle Castillo

    (CBS News) More information about the firearms used in the deadly shooting in Aurora, Colo. during the midnight “Dark Knight Rises” screening has come to light. A law enforcement source close to the investigation told CBS News that all the guns were purchased within the last six months, which is considered a “short time to the crime.”

    The guns were all purchased legally between May 22 and July 6 at three Colorado gun stores.

    James Holmes purchased a Smith and Wesson .233 high powered semi-automatic rifle at Gander Mountain gun store in Thornton, Colo, according to the law enforcement source. He also bought a .40 caliber Glock pistol at Gander Mountain gun store in Aurora, Colo. Another .40 caliber glock handgun and a Remington 870 shotgun were purchased at Bass Pro Shops in Denver, Colo.”

    http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-201_162-57477014/colo-shooter-purchased-guns-legally-from-3-different-stores/

    You will also note that the link appears to have the actual correct photographs of the models in question.

    I live in VA and have had a CCW since the 1990’s which I keep current, but I haven’t actually carried since around 1998 when I moved out of the city. If I were to start carrying again, I’d need to spend some more time at the range and get a laser sight.

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  27. Thanks jnc, I’m glad they were legal at least…………….lol. Seriously, I thought I read somewhere that there was no background check on something, maybe it was the ammunition or the 100 round magazine? I don’t know what all the rules entail because I’m not interested in owning guns myself in the least. Anyway, thanks for the correction.

    I’ve noticed before that we have quite a few gun advocates here. You’d think I’d have more familiarity with them with all the relatives I have in MT, CO, AZ, UT, NM, WY but it’s never been an issue in our family even though we’re avid outdoors people. If you want to arm me with a fishing pole, I’d be completely at home.

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  28. JNC, I wrote earlier: “If we could have a way to know who will go nuts, that would help, but we don’t.”

    The disconnect in our thinking about this is on both sides of the issue.

    We can have rational gun control laws within the Second Amendment, despite the fears of NRA,

    OTOH, we can never protect against gone nuts guy with gun control laws that pass Second A. muster.

    Considering that many western rural states have murder rates below 1/300K and that CO is 1.3, all below the national average of 3 [national ave also reflected in TX and CA, LMS], while DC is at 16, there is a certain disconnect between urban reality and rural reality, too.

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  29. Mark

    We can have rational gun control laws within the Second Amendment, despite the fears of NRA

    The point is we can’t actually. Your opinions notwithstanding, which I respect, truly, it won’t happen. That’s my point. What we’re doing now makes no sense, to me at least. I do agree though that it’s very difficult to predict a mental case although I imagine you’ll discover once everything comes out regarding this guy, that there were many ignored warning signs along the way.

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  30. Nova, just another reason to look forward to my generation dying off…… 😉

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  31. “lmsinca, on July 25, 2012 at 9:06 am said:

    Mark

    We can have rational gun control laws within the Second Amendment, despite the fears of NRA

    The point is we can’t actually. Your opinions notwithstanding, which I respect, truly, it won’t happen. That’s my point. What we’re doing now makes no sense, to me at least. I do agree though that it’s very difficult to predict a mental case although I imagine you’ll discover once everything comes out regarding this guy, that there were many ignored warning signs along the way.”

    The test of rationality isn’t whether or not the Clinton assault weapons ban is reinstated or not. Instant background checks are a relatively recent change, and they aren’t going anywhere.

    My recommendation would be for the gun control advocates to take a states rights approach and fight things like mandatory concealed carry reciprocity at the Federal level. There’s no reason why Massachusetts can’t have different gun laws than Montana.

    However, Federal gun bans are a non-starter.

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  32. Chris Cillizza noted the key point:

    “That the numbers on gun control remain steady even in the aftermath of such high profile events like Columbine, Virginia Tech and the Giffords shooting suggests that people simply don’t equate these incidents of violence with the broader debate over the right role for guns in our society. They view them as entirely separate conversations — and that’s why the tragedy in Aurora isn’t likely to change the political conversation over guns either.”

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/post/why-the-aurora-shooting-wont-likely-change-the-gun-control-debate/2012/07/20/gJQA6qWpxW_blog.html

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  33. “lmsinca, on July 25, 2012 at 8:49 am said:

    Thanks jnc, I’m glad they were legal at least…………….lol. Seriously, I thought I read somewhere that there was no background check on something, maybe it was the ammunition or the 100 round magazine?”

    There are no background checks on ammunition or magazines, just firearms themselves.

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  34. Thanks again jnc, that must be what I read even though I couldn’t find the piece again. I spend too much time just reading and not linking or bookmarking. Aren’t there still loopholes regarding background checks at gun shows that the majority of states take advantage of, although I don’t think CO is one of those states.

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  35. Personally I’d rather have open carry so that I know who to stay away from. . .

    And I’d also impose ultra-strict regulations on ammunition (how much/what kind can be purchased) and clips. I couldn’t care less if people own guns, because it’s actually the ammunition that kills people. . .

    Just sayin’ 😉

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  36. “lmsinca, on July 25, 2012 at 12:46 pm said: Edit Comment

    Thanks again jnc, that must be what I read even though I couldn’t find the piece again. I spend too much time just reading and not linking or bookmarking. Aren’t there still loopholes regarding background checks at gun shows that the majority of states take advantage of, although I don’t think CO is one of those states.”

    Yes. Private individuals can sell their personal arms to other private individuals without a background check at gun shows. Same thing as if they advertised the firearms on Craig’s list or in the old Trading Post magazine. This is usually referred to as the “gun show loophole” in the media.

    One reform that could probably pass would be to set up a voluntary background check booth for these transactions run by the local police that provide security at the gun shows. Private sellers don’t really have a way to do it as they aren’t FFL holders and most people don’t want to give their SSN to another private individual.

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