Chili

Posted on November 4, 2012 by Michigoose

Just to give EVERYBODY a head’s up, I’m going to create a post for us that will go up next Sunday with chili recipes.  Mark and okie talking about Mark’s chili got me started, and as I read back through previous Bites and Pieces posts I was reminded that everyone has posted great recipes at one time or another.  I’ve got two that I’m going to post; a white bean/chicken chili, and the one that is a throwback to our childhoods (and you’ll be surprised where it came from).  Don’t worry about formatting in the post, I’ll do my best to make us all look coherent, just stick your recipe in there.  I’m going to schedule it for Sunday at noon EST, and hopefully it’ll have enough recipes to get us through this winter’s weekends!

Filed under: Bites and Pieces | 2 Comments »

Saturday Football Open Thread (Week 10)

Posted on November 3, 2012 by Michigoose

First off, thanks for covering for me last weekend, okie. I had to take care of some unfortunate work-related stuff, but you stepped into the breach beautifully. Second, I’m very, very glad that everyone seems to have made it through Sandy fairly unscathed. Whew!

Does anybody care about the early games? Thursday Ohio routed Eastern Michigan 45 – 14 and Miami (FL) beat Virginia Tech 30 – 12, while last night Washington was at Cal, and won 21 – 13.  Onto today’s offerings. . .

Oklahoma is at Iowa State in a Big Twelve battle (line: OU, spread 13).  This may be the noon (EDT) game to watch (ABC/ESPN3), unless you’re a Big Ten fan, in which case. . . Update: Oklahoma 35 – 13

Michigan is playing at Minnesota, so bsimon and I get to duke it out (line: Michigan, spread 12.5).  Wolverines eat Gophers, Golden or not, for breakfast.  Just sayin’.  Update:  Michigan, 35 – 13

Georgia Tech is playing Maryland (line: GT, spread 7).  This would be a good week for the Yellow Jackets to start making a comeback. Update:  Georgia Tech 33  – 13

Washington State is at Utah in what may be the battle for the basement (line: Utah, spread 12.5).  Should be beautiful weather, if nothing else–go, Utes!  Update:  Utah 49 – 6.  And yes, the weather is gorgeous–I’m sitting on my back patio on my chaise lounge with a light blanket.  Ah, fall!

Pittsburgh is venturing into South Bend, IN.  Can Notre Dame go 9 – 0? (line: The Irish, spread 18.5).  Brian Kelly certainly does seem to have the luck of the Irish this season.  Update:  and they stay perfect in one of the most exciting games I’ve seen in years.  Notre Dame 29 – 26 in 3OT.

And Nebraska is going to Spartan Stadium (line: MSU, spread 1.0).  Go, Spartans!  Oh, and Paul, what should we wager on this one?  Update:  Grrrrrrrrrrrrrr.  Nebraska 28 – 24.  I owe you an Epic brew, Paul.

Illinois is playing osu (line: osu, spread 21).  This would be an especially sweet one if the Illini could pull through for me. . .  Blast:  osu 52 – 22

Penn State is at Purdue (line: PSU, spread 2).  This has been a tough week for PSU, hope their Saturday is better!  Update:  and it is.  PSU 34 – 9

Texas is at Texas Tech (line: Tech, spread 3.5).  Mark??  Update:  UT 31 – 22.  Hook ’em, ‘Horns!!

In the late games, UConn is playing USF (line: USF, spread 9).  Go Bulls!  Update:  USF wins 13 – 6!

And Arizona is playing at UCLA (line: UCLA, spread 3.0).  Go, Wildcats!  Errrrr:  Arizona got shellacked by UCLA, 66 – 10

Off this week: Wisconsin

Filed under: Football, Open Thread | 31 Comments »

Morning Report 11/2/12

Posted on November 2, 2012 by Brent Nyitray

Vital Statistics: 

  Last Change Percent
S&P Futures  1428.8 5.6 0.39%
Eurostoxx Index 2554.3 20.4 0.81%
Oil (WTI) 86.74 -0.4 -0.40%
LIBOR 0.313 0.000 0.00%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 80.44 0.393 0.49%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 1.76% 0.04%  
RPX Composite Real Estate Index 194.1 -0.3  

Futures are higher on the back of a better-than-expected October jobs report.  Bonds are MBS are down

Nonfarm payrolls increased 171k in Oct and the Sep number was revised upward from 114k to 148k.  The unemployment rate ticked up to 7.9% from 7.8% as the labor force participation rate increased to 63.8%. Weekly hours and pay fell. The report pretty much confirms the labor market is on the mend, albeit slowly.

The Northeast continues to pick up the storm damage, although gasoline shortages are becoming a problem as the lack of power in NJ means that gasoline can’t be pumped out of the large tanks into trucks. This will be an additional drag on the 4Q economic numbers as people stay home instead of shopping. 

We have another glimpse of how long the Fed thinks QE should last – until the unemployment rate falls below 7.25%. Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren cautioned that this was a threshold, not a specific target. Rosengren is one of the most dovish Fed members, but does not have a vote at the moment.  He went further to say that if the unemployment rate falls to 6.5%, it is time to start moving away from ZIRP.

Colony Capital won an auction for 970 Fannie Mae foreclosed homes in Arizona, California, and Nevada. It is a complicated partnership agreement and Colony plans to rent out the properties. It looks like they paid close to BPO $176MM for a portfolio that was appraised at $157MM in Feb.  Since Feb, prices have shot up in Arizona.  Colony will get 20% of the rents as a management fee, and will take 10% of the profits up to $136MM, and then their take grows to 50%.  It looks like they only have to put up something like $34 million.  Fannie was unable to sell the Atlanta portfolio.

The MR will be spotty next week as I am traveling to the Left Coast.

Filed under: Morning Report | 11 Comments »

Things Republican Politicians Do That Drive Me Crazy

Posted on November 1, 2012 by Michigoose

Steve Benen wrote this up today and I am at a total loss as to what the Senate Republicans think this is going to accomplish. Hiding reports doesn’t make the facts go away, and while I understand that you can probably find as many economists to disagree with the report as ones that agree with it, it seems to me that a better solution would be to publish a rebuttal.

In mid-September, the non-partisan Congressional Research Service published a detailed report, documenting the fact that reducing taxes on the wealthy does not, in fact, generate economic growth. Instead, the CRS found, the trickle-down model appears to be “associated with the increasing concentration of income at the top.”

[snip]

But in this case, the CRS presented Republicans with inconvenient truths. A spokesperson for Mitch McConnell said the officials at the research service “decided, on their own, to pull the study pending further review.” While that may be true, the question then becomes how much pressure the CRS officials were under to make this decision “on their own.”

And what is it that Republicans didn’t like about the CRS analysis? McConnell aides offered a series of complaints, including the report’s use of the phrase “Bush tax cuts.”

Apparently, in Republicans’ minds, to say “Bush tax cuts” is to use an inappropriate “tone.”

But putting all of that aside, we simply cannot have a functioning federal system in which neutral, independent offices are ignored, pressured, and/or censored when Republicans don’t like what they have to say. We’ve now seen this recently with the Bureau of Labor Statistics and Congressional Budget Office, and democratic norms dictate that GOP officials cut this out.

Here is the original report, republished by Senate Democrats on their web site.

Filed under: Congress, Economy, GOP, income inequality | 22 Comments »

Morning Report 11/1/12

Posted on November 1, 2012 by Brent Nyitray

Vital Statistics:

 

Last

Change

Percent

S&P Futures 

1409.0

2.2

0.16%

Eurostoxx Index

2523.4

19.8

0.79%

Oil (WTI)

86.5

0.3

0.30%

LIBOR

0.313

0.000

0.00%

US Dollar Index (DXY)

79.9

-0.015

-0.02%

10 Year Govt Bond Yield

1.71%

0.02%

 

RPX Composite Real Estate Index

194.1

-0.3

 

 

Markets are up slightly as we recover from Sandy.  Transportation into NYC is still spotty, so expect lower-than-normal liquidity.  Bonds are down 1/2 a point and MBS are down small.

The US markets were closed Monday and Tuesday.  The last time the US markets were closed two consecutive days for a weather-related reason?  The Blizzard of 1888.

Can FEMA cover the losses from Sandy?  With the expected flood insurance claims, maybe not. 

We have a slew of economic data this morning, starting with ADP Employment Change.  This is supposed to mirror the payroll survey the government puts out.  It showed nonfarm private employment rose 158k in Oct, while Sep was revised downward from 162k to 114k.  ADP has made some changes to their methodology, so this number will be hard to predict / volatile for the near term.

Challenger and Gray reported announced job cuts increased 41% in Oct, largely a result of lackluster earnings reports so far. C&G don’t differentiate between domestic and overseas job cuts, so the impact on the US will be less.  The Markit Final PMI fell to a 37 month low.

Nonfarm productivity came in better than forecast, while unit labor costs unexpectedly fell. Initial Jobless claims came in at 363k.  Consumer Confidence, ISM, and construction spending will be released at 10:00.

Today is the first Thursday of the month, and that means retailers are reporting same store sales.  Generally, they are up across the board, which was pretty much to be expected.  Apparel did the best, while department and drug stores were generally down.

What will be the economic effect of Sandy? According to IHS Global, it could take 1.5% of 4Q GDP. But what about all of the construction workers that will be hired to rebuild?  More of a Q1 event, though overall, not enough to offset the balance sheet effects. Refer to the Broken Window Fallacy.  This will undoubtedly be motivation to prevent the fiscal cliff from occurring, although there seems to be a consensus that everything should be kicked down the road with the exception of the entirely symbolic tax cuts for incomes over 250k.

 

Filed under: Morning Report | 20 Comments »

Electoral vote predictions

Posted on October 31, 2012 by Mike

Picking up on a comment by nova, here’s a link to a website where you can design your own electoral map. Then you can copy the URL into your comment for everyone else to see. Overall vote percentages, including minor party candidates, can be used as a tiebreaker.

If someone finds a better site to link, please add it into this post (or replace my link above).

Filed under: 2012, Obama | Tagged: | 17 Comments »

Post Romney Options

Posted on October 31, 2012 by jnc4p

To start the Romney campaign postmortems a little early, I’ll throw this out:

Romney was a horrible candidate for small government conservatives because everything he targeted in the budget for cuts was either insignificant symbolism (PBS) or what a majority of people consider a core government function (FEMA). That coupled with holding entitlements sacrosanct and increasing defense made his plans implausible to begin with.

No where in a Romney campaign speech was the fact that the average senior takes out three times as much as they have paid in to the entitlement system (here meaning Medicare & Social Security combined) and that is unsustainable. This campaign was not about making tough budget choices.

How Lifetime Benefits and Contributions Point the Way Toward Reforming Our Senior Entitlement Programs

However, the Republicans do have a candidate available to make this argument, and it’s Chris Christie. This piece from the NYTimes magazine is worth a reread:

“How Chris Christie Did His Homework
Mark Peterson for The New York Times
By MATT BAI
Published: February 24, 2011”
…

How Chris Christie Did His Homework

If anyone can sell entitlment reform, he can:

“Christie, it turns out, has a preternatural gift for making the complex seem deceptively simple. Last month I saw him hold forth at a town-hall meeting in Chesilhurst, a South Jersey borough of about 1,600. Chesilhurst is about half African-American, and I sensed more curiosity than enthusiasm among the racially mixed crowd as it flowed into the little community-center gymnasium. An unusually large number of folding chairs were empty. About 20 minutes after the program was supposed to start, there came over the loudspeakers the kind of melodramatic instrumental that might introduce a local newscast, or maybe an Atlantic City magic show, and in came Christie, taking his position in the center of the crowd. The theme of the week was pension-and-benefits reform, and in his introductory remarks, Christie explained the inefficiency in the state’s health care costs not by wielding a stack of damning statistics, as some politicians might, but by relating a story.

When he was a federal prosecutor, Christie told the audience, he got to choose from about 100 health-insurance plans, ranging from cheap to quite expensive. But as soon as he became governor, the “benefits lady” told him he had only three state plans from which to choose, Goldilocks-style; one was great, one was modestly generous and one was rather miserly. And any of the three would cost him exactly 1.5 percent of his salary.

“ ‘You’re telling me,’ ” Christie said he told the woman, feigning befuddlement, “ ‘that no matter which one I pick, the good one or the O.K. one or the bad one, I’m going to pay 1½ percent of my salary?’ And she said, ‘Yes.’

“And I said, ‘Then everyone picks the really good one, right?’ And she said, ‘Ninety-six percent of state employees pick the really good one.’

“Which led me to have two reactions,” Christie told the crowd. “First, bring those other 4 percent to me! Because when I have to start laying people off, they’re the first ones!” His audience burst into near hysterics. “And the second reaction was, of course I would choose the best plan,” Christie said, “and so would you.

“Now listen, I don’t think this is groundbreaking stuff,” Christie added. “I don’t think this means that instead of being governor, you know, I should be at NASA, working on the space shuttle. I’m no genius. Just seems to me that if you give people an option to get something for nothing, they’ll take it.” Scanning the nodding faces around me, it seemed there wasn’t a person in the gymnasium, at that point, who wouldn’t have voted to make state workers and teachers pay more for the better plan.”

Filed under: 2013 and beyond, Republican Party | 16 Comments »

What the @$%?! Disney buying ‘Star Wars’ maker Lucasfilm for $4.05 billion from George Lucas

Posted on October 30, 2012 by jnc4p

Disney buying ‘Star Wars’ maker Lucasfilm for $4.05 billion from George Lucas
By Associated Press, Updated: Tuesday, October 30, 4:37 PM

LOS ANGELES — Disney is paying $4.05 billion to buy Lucasfilm Ltd., the production company behind “Star Wars,” from its chairman and founder, George Lucas. It’s also making a seventh movie in the “Star Wars” series called “Episode 7,” set for release in 2015, with plans to follow it with Episodes 8 and 9 and then one new movie every two or three years.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/disney-says-it-is-buying-star-wars-maker-lucasfilm-for-405-billion-from-george-lucas/2012/10/30/dc0ace18-22cc-11e2-92f8-7f9c4daf276a_story.html?hpid=z4

Filed under: Bits and Pieces, movies | Tagged: , | 11 Comments »

Storm Fallout

Posted on October 30, 2012 by yellojkt

Here in Maryland we seem to have escaped the brunt of Hurricane Sandy but with New Jersey and New York taking the greatest damage. I was living in West Palm Beach when Hurricane Andrew sliced through south Dade County, making it twice that I have been on the fringe of major storms.

Whenever I hear of hurricanes heading for New York I always think of the cautionary tale of the Citicorp Building where the structural engineer, through a series of propitious events, discovered that the building was susceptible to collapse under certain wind conditions. The New Yorker has one of the most succinct and lucid accounts of the event.

This resulted in a crash program to remediate the building’s structure which was successfully completed before any major storm struck the building. This one example is a cautionary tale about engineering professionalism. One should always do the right thing regardless of the consequences.

And no discussion of wind and structures is complete without a reference to the Tacoma Narrows Bridge collapse which is shown in about every freshman engineering class ever.

Open post for storm and disaster stories:

Filed under: 2012 | 36 Comments »

Monday Open Thread 10/29/2012

Posted on October 29, 2012 by jnc4p

On the off chance that Brent can’t do the morning report today due to the hurricane, here’s an open thread. Also, for those who haven’t seen it, I highly recommend the PBS Frontline episode on the 2012 election:

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/choice-2012/

YouTube:

Filed under: Open Thread | 29 Comments »

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