Electoral vote predictions

Picking up on a comment by nova, here’s a link to a website where you can design your own electoral map. Then you can copy the URL into your comment for everyone else to see. Overall vote percentages, including minor party candidates, can be used as a tiebreaker.

If someone finds a better site to link, please add it into this post (or replace my link above).

17 Responses

  1. Thanks, Mike! I found that one and a couple of others yesterday but couldn’t find a way to import any of the maps into a post over here.


  2. I could see a couple Senator’s voting non-party line to have the President and VP be of the same party. I wouldn’t automatically assume that Joe Biden would be elected by the Senate if it’s a tie.


    • JNC, just for the sake of argument, assume no Ds would vote for Ryan over Biden [all this assumes that the D caucus has 51 votes on 1-8-13]. What does WMR do with Ryan? Make him SecTreas?

      In a closely divided Senate, with, say, an I or 2 caucusing with the Ds, why do you think the D caucus would give away their tie breaker vote?


  3. Manchin would switch parties in a heartbeat. Pryor, Landrieu, and Begich would be heavily lobbied by both sides. Who knows what King will do. So, if the Rs get to 49 seats in the Senate, they could easily vote Ryan in as VP in the case of an electoral tie.


  4. I’ve got it Obama with 311 EV.

    Of course, I’m a very optimistic person. 🙂

    BTW, glad to see you back, Mark!

    EDIT to add percentages: Obama 51%, Romney 47%, 2% Johnson


  5. Here’s my map.

    Romney 315, Obama 218, and NM comes through for Johnson for 5!

    Basically, Obama holds NV but loses the rest of the swing states. Romney gets PA and WI. I spent a lot of time thinking about OH. I really don’t know. But I’m going with the national polls show Obama losing independents and there aren’t enough Ds to make up for it.

    52% Romney, 47% Obama, 1% Johnson.


  6. NoVA:

    It would appear that you and I are political polar opposites! 🙂


  7. My map

    Obama 298
    Romney 240

    I’m going with
    51% Obama
    46% Romney
    3% Other


  8. I can’t resist a good puzzle, so here’s my map.

    I’ve got Obama 294 to Romney 244.

    nova, I can’t see your prediction panning out unless virtually all mainstream polling is horribly wrong this election.


  9. It’s about time I put in my guesses. BHO 303-235.

    BHO: 50.8%
    WMR: 48.1%
    Others: 1.1%

    I think FL goes to another recount. Yay us! It wouldn’t surprise me to see “other” take enough votes here to shift the victory to BHO. I also wouldn’t be surprised to see Johnson take away enough votes from BHO to give CO to WMR (marijuana legalization is on the ballot in CO).


  10. I think FL goes to another recount.

    Oh, god, I hope not. I remember being on St Thomas on 12/8 last time; I was so tired of the ongoing drama that it was difficult to enjoy myself. On St Thomas!!


  11. Oh, god, I hope not

    I hope not too, but I have a feeling that Tampa/Hillsborough will go for BHO and Orlando/Orange will go for WMR, just based on my small sample of both and the few polls I’ve seen. Unless the R Supervisors of Elections have sufficiently suppressed early voting, Miami-Dade will go strongly for BHO. N. FL is basically S. GA/AL and will go big for WMR. That means a razor close race and a recount.


  12. @Mike: “Unless the R Supervisors of Elections have sufficiently suppressed early voting”

    Is there any evidence of this? I hear a lot about voter suppression from both sides, but there’s never much evidence of it, when it comes down to do it.

    Accusations of cheating and demands for recounts also tends to get old. I expect this election to be a squeaker (Obama wins!) but if there are a lot of demands for recounts, it’s just going to make the Republicans look petty. Not a big fan of Romney, but I expect he’s got the horse sense to take the loss like a man and not keep the election going for months, doing recounts, as even if he won under those circumstances he will have been just another Republican to “steal the election” and it would taint his presidency. Plus being unable to lose with grace tends to sour lukewarm supporters, on the candidate and the party.


  13. KW:

    Is there any evidence of this?

    I mis-typed. Voter suppression in the form of reduced early voting was a R legislative initiative, not something the Supervisors of Elections were doing. That restricting early voting (typically more D) and not absentee ballots (typically more R) is aimed at suppressing the D vote seems apparent.

    Charlie Crist:

    A major reason there are such long lines at the polls is that last year, Florida’s GOP-controlled legislature shortened the number of early voting days from 14 to eight, meaning all early voters are trying to cast their ballots in a shorter window. Previously, Floridians were allowed to vote on the Sunday before Election Day — a day that typically had high traffic.

    Crist said there was no justification for shortening that time period other than pure voter suppression.


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