Do Nothing Congress? My Ass.

http://thehill.com/business-a-lobbying/business-a-lobbying/263354-lobbying-victories-of-2015

And sure, they probably named some post offices too.

College Football Playoffs and the remaining good bowl games

Such interesting possibilities.  Stoopes and the Land Thieves are 3-0 against ‘Bama, and Austin native Baker Mayfield is lighting it up at QB for the Sooners.  However, Brent Venables, who for a decade under Stoopes was the defensive guru of the Big 12, is now at Clemson.  Stoopes dumped Venables so that he could hire his brother, Mike Stoopes, who had been fired from his HC job.  Mike is a downgrade from Venables.

Michigan State was consistently the best coached defense in the nation under Dantonio and Narduzzi, but Narduzzi is now deservedly a HC on his own.  Nevertheless, MSU has not forgotten how to defend.  Twist for the ‘Bama – MSU game is that Saban used to coach at MSU.

Could ‘Bama grind out a victory against any of the other three?  All of the other three are better than every team that ‘Bama faced, but there are many truly NFL capable studs in the Tide’s lineup. Crucially, I would rate all three of the other starting QBs in the playoffs well ahead of ‘Bama’s Jake Coker.

Could MSU score enough to beat OU or Clemson?  Could either Clemson or OU  score four TDs against the MSU or ‘Bama defenses?

The Playoff Schedule:

No. 1 Clemson faces No. 4 Oklahoma on Dec. 31 in the Orange Bowl.

No. 2 Alabama will face No. 3 Michigan State on Dec. 31 in Jerry World, the Cowboys’ stadium, mislabeled the something Cotton Bowl.

For OU, Arlington TX would have been a home game, so it was a sure thing that OU would be ranked #4, although that ranking is certainly “reasonable”, regardless.

While I would not predict the results of a game between 19 YOs without inside information on injuries, grades, drinking habits, and girl friends, I will guess that styles will produce more TDs in the Arlington game, and that the final will provide a true contrast.  Here is a statistical model, taken without benefit of the “model information” I consider crucial:

Each Team’s Chances Of Winning The College Football Playoff

In the other Bowl games of note, the truly outstanding teams that fell short of the Playoffs will be butting heads.  TCU and ND had so many injuries that they were not the same teams by midseason as they were in early September.  They remained very tough squads, and if they heal before their bowl games, they will be as good to watch as the playoff teams.

Stanford, Ohio State, Iowa, Florida State, UNC, Okie Lite, and Baylor (if it has its first or second string QB back), are all highly competitive teams.  In fact, there was no single dominant team this year, and I am not inclined to believe that Clemson’s record set it apart.   I find ACC competition suspect, below the top three teams.  By contrast, the very competitive PAC has some good multi-loss teams, as does the western half of the SEC.

Only one non-power conference team is worth a mention: Houston.  Not having played even a fruit blender schedule there is no comparable way to measure them.  They do have talent and are very well coached by Herman, however, who was previously OC at tOSU.

So these are the best of the remaining bowl games, but remember when there is nothing on the line, either team may show up or not, depending in part on how much they want to party over Winter Break:

Dec 29
Citrus Bowl NKA as something else
UNC v. Baylor (but one of BU’s two best QBs must return for this or it will not be worth watching)

Dec 31
Peach Bowl
FSU vs UH (classic who wants to be there game)

Jan. 1 –

Fiesta Bowl
Notre Dame vs. Ohio State (injuries for ND and no incentive for tOSU?)
Rose Bowl Game
Stanford v. Iowa (Stanford has a great RB who will set many records)
Sugar Bowl
Oklahoma State vs. Ole Miss

Jan 2 –
Alamo Bowl
Oregon vs. TCU (another injury bowl – but these are exciting teams)

Jan 11 – National Title Game from Glendale, AZ

FWIW, do not bet on these games.  19 YOs, girlfriends, drinking, injuries, passing finals, arrests in New Orleans…you cannot know the outcome.  That is why we watch.

And – GOOD LUCK to Michigan State!

 

 

 

Thanksgiving 2015

Happy Thanksgiving Day to all of you! May your plates and portfolios be full, and may we all have peace and hope.

 

 

And, of course, may all the correct teams win this weekend!

Windows 10 is Here 7/29/15

http://www.cnet.com/products/microsoft-windows-10/

 

Yes, it is out 3 days before my retirement.  After which, of course, I will never need it again.

 

No matter whether MS “got it right” this time.  I write this on a laptop I loaded with Ubuntu (Linux) only and do not intend to be captive to an operating system monopoly ever again, once I do not require legal software apps that only run on MSW.

 

For those of you who must continue to use it, I hope it is all it’s cracked up to be.

Two Candidates That Will Not Get My Vote (nor that of Dave Ramsey). And it has nothing to do with politics. 7/16/15

I have long considered myself to be socially liberal and fiscally conservative (personally and politically). Personally, that means you live within your means and save up for the big stuff (cars, kids’ education, retirement). Politically, that means you pay for whatever government you want. You’re a small government conservative? Fine! Set taxes accordingly. You’re a big government liberal? Ditto! Make sure that current taxes cover current expenditures and capital expenditures are covered appropriately. If you sell off your toll highways to pay off a short term deficit, congratulations. You just took out a payday loan on the back of your taxpayers. With that as preamble, let us consider two case studies in fiscal liberals. Or, as Dave Ramsey would put it, freakin’ morons.
 
Ladies and Germs, I give you two candidates who could never get my vote.
 
On my right, let’s give a big hello to Marco Rubio. Republicans will regularly warn you that Social Security is a giant Ponzi scheme. Hence, you should prepare for funding your own retirement. I heartily agree with the latter portion of this and have socked away for retirement ever since I started making decent money in 2001. As Dave Ramsey says, live like nobody else now so that you can live like nobody else later. So, what did Senator Rubio do when he faced some cash flow problems. He cashed out his retirement funds! That’s roughly like borrowing money at 35% interest (10% penalty plus your tax rate). And what emergency did he face? Tell us, Marco:
 
“We wanted to have access to cash in the coming year both because I’m running for president but also my refrigerator broke down. That was $3,000. And I had to replace the air conditioning unit in our home,” the Florida Republican said on “Fox News Sunday.”
 
I hope you liked that fridge, Marco, because it just cost you $5000 ($5000 – 10% = $4500 * 2/3 = $3000). Senator Rubio evidently has no idea how to fill out a budget. I do sympathize, having just needed to replace our refrigerator (that we bought new when remodeling). As a fiscal conservative, I checked out the Fourth of July sales and picked up a very nice Samsung for a hair under $1,000 (with French doors no less). That $68,000 IRA that he cashed out probably would have grown to about $750,000 when he retired. But, hey, he’ll have a little mad money on the campaign trail.
 
To my left, a big round of applause for Martin O’Malley. What was his financial sin, you ask? He borrowed over $300,000 so his daughter could go to Georgetown. He utterly failed to save anything for his kids’ college education. When little snookums wanted to go to Georgetown like Grandpa, did he say, “Sorry baby girl, but we have an excellent university in College Park”? No! He went down to the bank and signed on the dotted line. And then he makes a campaign issue of student debt. Here’s a thought, Martin. If you can’t afford it, don’t buy it. I’d love to be tooling down the road in a Tesla right now. I don’t have the scratch, so I’ve got a 10 year old RAV4 (after our 15 year old Solara finally gave up the ghost).
 
Both Rubio and O’Malley are high earners and I’m sure will be able to make up the difference. However, for making two of the worst financial errors you possibly can, they’re dead to me. If you can’t be trusted with your own money, I’m sure as hell not going to trust you to be a responsible steward of my taxes.
 
BB

Polygamy 7/14/15

Being of the school that hears the word polygamy and forthwith tires, imagining a competitive household in which it is revealed that under pressure at least one adult participant is nuts, I have never engaged in a discussion of multiple spousing.  And as a lawyer, I have never understood how an argument for polygamy as constitutionally protected could be made.  After all, there is no equal protection argument to be had.  But Kennedy’s loosy-goosy “due process” argument in the SSM case has perhaps opened a door a crack that could have remained slammed shut.  Certainly, Justice Roberts thought so.

So when I stumbled across this article in The Economist, I read it with interest and decided to share it here.

http://www.economist.com/blogs/democracyinamerica/2015/07/marriage-and-civil-rights?spc=scode&spv=xm&ah=9d7f7ab945510a56fa6d37c30b6f1709

I was struck by the author’s notion that it is libertarians who are actually pushing polygamy, and apparently liberals who oppose it.  I thought everybody opposed polygamy except some folks in Utah who have TV reality shows.

I felt vindicated by his citations of studies of the damage one can expect from polygamy, because they seem evident to me.

Nevertheless, I wonder what it will mean to say there is no right to polygamy, while never prosecuting cases and failing to remove children absent reported repeated physical abuse.  See:

http://www.nbcnews.com/id/23993440/ns/us_news-crime_and_courts/t/women-children-leave-polygamist-ranch/#.VaUFIJNVK1E

Frankly, that case was awful.  But that is what it has taken to enforce laws against polygamy in America.

Given three choices – recognizing polygamy, or banning polygamy with enforcement, or without enforcement – what do you think?

 

Rich State Poor State 2014 7/10/15

State

Dollars (millions)

Ratio to GSP

Revenue

Spending

Net

Revenue

Spending

Net

Alabama

23,789

61,806

-38,016

11.9%

31.0%

-19.1%

Alaska

5,449

7,502

-2,052

9.5%

13.1%

-3.6%

Arizona

40,530

58,723

-18,193

14.3%

20.7%

-6.4%

Arkansas

30,729

20,447

10,282

25.3%

16.8%

8.5%

California

369,193

236,560

132,633

16.0%

10.2%

5.7%

Colorado

52,003

35,559

16,444

17.0%

11.6%

5.4%

Connecticut

57,697

64,994

-7,296

22.8%

25.7%

-2.9%

Delaware

19,040

6,105

12,935

30.3%

9.7%

20.6%

District of Columbia

26,433

26,551

-118

22.9%

23.0%

-0.1%

Florida

154,353

150,037

4,316

18.4%

17.9%

0.5%

Georgia

79,566

55,473

24,093

16.7%

11.6%

5.1%

Hawaii

7,723

10,706

-2,983

10.0%

13.8%

-3.9%

Idaho

9,224

10,924

-1,700

14.4%

17.1%

-2.7%

Illinois

148,332

70,118

78,215

19.9%

9.4%

10.5%

Indiana

54,607

106,579

-51,973

17.2%

33.5%

-16.4%

Iowa

22,309

19,434

2,875

13.1%

11.4%

1.7%

Kansas

25,897

14,729

11,168

17.6%

10.0%

7.6%

Kentucky

30,128

71,522

-41,394

16.0%

37.9%

-21.9%

Louisiana

43,023

29,411

13,612

17.1%

11.7%

5.4%

Maine

6,902

10,525

-3,624

12.4%

18.8%

-6.5%

Maryland

59,614

62,445

-2,831

17.1%

17.9%

-0.8%

Massachusetts

100,161

68,024

32,137

21.8%

14.8%

7.0%

Michigan

71,184

69,061

2,123

15.8%

15.3%

0.5%

Minnesota

96,227

59,213

37,014

30.4%

18.7%

11.7%

Mississippi

11,011

21,879

-10,867

10.5%

20.9%

-10.4%

Missouri

61,512

44,587

16,925

21.6%

15.7%

5.9%

Montana

5,338

7,248

-1,910

12.1%

16.4%

-4.3%

Nebraska

23,885

11,335

12,550

21.3%

10.1%

11.2%

Nevada

16,579

14,629

1,949

12.6%

11.1%

1.5%

New Hampshire

11,044

8,513

2,531

15.4%

11.9%

3.5%

New Jersey

134,870

55,998

78,872

24.6%

10.2%

14.4%

New Mexico

8,758

21,212

-12,454

9.4%

22.8%

-13.4%

New York

250,618

145,994

104,624

17.8%

10.4%

7.4%

North Carolina

72,472

59,945

12,527

15.0%

12.4%

2.6%

North Dakota

7,585

56,969

-49,384

13.8%

103.3%

-89.6%

Ohio

129,901

73,441

56,460

22.3%

12.6%

9.7%

Oklahoma

32,611

25,341

7,270

17.8%

13.8%

4.0%

Oregon

28,409

28,482

-72

13.2%

13.2%

0.0%

Pennsylvania

126,374

182,015

-55,640

19.1%

27.5%

-8.4%

Rhode Island

13,888

8,373

5,514

25.3%

15.2%

10.0%

South Carolina

22,242

73,069

-50,827

11.7%

38.4%

-26.7%

South Dakota

6,734

6,033

700

14.7%

13.2%

1.5%

Tennessee

56,937

72,691

-15,755

18.9%

24.2%

-5.2%

Texas

265,336

147,338

117,998

16.1%

8.9%

7.2%

Utah

18,389

13,459

4,930

13.0%

9.5%

3.5%

Vermont

4,325

4,688

-363

14.6%

15.8%

-1.2%

Virginia

75,049

92,321

-17,272

16.2%

19.9%

-3.7%

Washington

67,813

51,083

16,730

15.9%

12.0%

3.9%

West Virginia

6,885

14,611

-7,726

9.1%

19.4%

-10.3%

Wisconsin

49,592

78,632

-29,040

16.9%

26.8%

-9.9%

Wyoming

4,892

3,560

1,331

11.1%

8.1%

3.0%

Total

3,047,160

2,649,893

397,267

17.6%

15.3%

2.3%

The long, slow death of a Republic 7/4/15

Three years ago I contributed several pieces to a 4th of July series here at ATiM celebrating American independence. I had hoped they would provide some sense of the way I feel about the birth of America, and perhaps spark those feelings in others, especially about the Founding Fathers who made that birth not only possible at all but an actual reality. Usually when I contemplate the birth of the US on Independence Day, I am genuinely filled with a mixture of gratitude, responsibility, and pride. Gratitude to both the people who risked, and sometimes gave, their lives to make it all happen, and to Providence (to use the lingo of the Founders) for landing me in this, a singular nation with an identity grounded not just in history but in unique philosophical ideals. Responsibility to help protect the legacy that has been given to us. And pride in knowing just what it is that has made this a nation of such promise. This year, however, I feel quite different.

When Ben Franklin left Independence Hall at the end of the Constitutional Convention in 1787, he was asked by a woman outside “Well, Doctor, what have we got? A monarchy or a republic?” Franklin replied “A republic. If you can keep it.” The implication of Franklin’s response was prophetic.

A republic is defined as “a state or nation in which the supreme power rests in all the citizens entitled to vote and is exercised by representatives elected, directly or indirectly, by them and responsible to them.” And it is certainly true that we retain the forms, the institutional manifestations, of the Republic that Franklin and his fellow delegates created. We still have a legislative branch comprised of two elected houses of congress. We still have an executive branch headed by an elected president. We still have a judicial branch headed by a Supreme Court comprised of 9 judges, appointed by the president and approved by congress. We still have the several states, with their own constitutions and forms of government. But we no longer operate under true republican rule, nor are the people any longer committed to protecting against the things that the structure of our government was supposed to protect against. Hence while we retain the forms of a republic, we have forfeited the substance of what it means to be a republic, and have become a nation of the ruled.

In 1887 congress, in its infinite wisdom, decided to create the Interstate Commerce Commission, the first regulatory agency in the nation. Nearly 130 years later we now have countless federal agencies. And I mean literally countless. Any attempt to identify exactly how many federal agencies now exist proves fruitless. Some lists will be qualified as “major” regulatory agencies, so as to be able to provide a definitive list. (14 regulatory agencies on that one.) Others, such as Wikipedia, settle for providing “examples” (28 of them) of “independent” agencies – not to be confused with independent regulatory agencies, it reminds us – a comprehensive list, apparently, being impossible to provide. A totally different Wikipedia entry on federal agencies explains the problem:

Legislative definitions of a federal agency are varied, and even contradictory, and the official United States Government Manual offers no definition. While the Administrative Procedure Act definition of “agency” applies to most executive branch agencies, Congress may define an agency however it chooses in enabling legislation, and subsequent litigation, often involving the Freedom of Information Act and the Government in the Sunshine Act, further cloud attempts to enumerate a list of agencies.

And these agencies, however many there actually are, are not populated with elected representatives. They are comprised of both career bureaucrats and political appointees. They are not us.

It is certainly the case that many of these agencies don’t really exercise any real power. For example the US Women’s Bureau, enabled by Public Law 66-259; 29 U.S.C. 11-16.29, doesn’t seem to do much of anything noteworthy except provide a living for its employees. But many others exercise nearly unchecked power to make laws which are never voted on by congress. The people, us, have virtually no say over these laws. The administrative state rules us. We do not rule it.

Defenders of the administrative state will say that is bunk. They will say that we have authorized these agencies through congress, and that they are merely enforcing laws that congress has written. They will also say that the agencies are not making law, but rather establishing “rules” that define their enforcement policies. That is indeed how the administrative state justifies its existence under a constitution that neither contemplates nor authorizes the existence of a law-making bureaucracy. But reality on the ground shows that it is that justification that is bunk.

An example. The Environmental Protection Agency is right now promulgating “rules” regulating carbon dioxide emissions. It does so ostensibly under the authority of the Clean Air Act which requires regulation of “air pollutants”. The Clean Air Act was written and passed in 1963. For over 40 years no one, not the original authors of the act, not any subsequent congress, not “the people”, not even the EPA itself thought of carbon dioxide as an “air pollutant”. Which is not a surprise at all. Pollution is defined as “the introduction of contaminants into the natural environment that cause adverse change.” But carbon dioxide is a naturally occurring gas the presence of which is vital to life on earth. It is naturally produced by all living beings that have lungs, through the simple act of breathing. It is absorbed by plants during photosynthesis. It is, again, essential to the existence of life on earth.

But due to the rise of “climate change” alarmism, carbon dioxide has now been classified by he EPA as an “air pollutant”. There was no vote. No congressional law. No popular referendum. In fact it wasn’t even the EPA itself that originally designated it as a air pollutant under its authority. It was sued by 11 states which claimed the the Clean Air Act required the EPA to regulate carbon emissions, and despite losing in the lower courts, by a 5-4 vote the Supreme Court ruled in favor of the plaintiffs, forcing the EPA into regulation. Of course, under a new administration that promotes climate alarmism, the EPA has embraced its newfound ability to write legislation regulating carbon. But it is perfectly clear that it is, in fact, writing legislation, not simply enforcing existing law. President Obama essentially ended any pretense to the contrary when he demanded that congress either pass carbon related climate change legislation or face the threat of him doing it unilaterally via the EPA. Which he has now done. One doesn’t ask for new legislation to enforce if one thinks that it already exists and needs to be enforced. The notion that Obama is just enforcing existing law is an obvious ruse.

That is just one particularly infamous example, but this is how the administrative state routinely operates, on big issues and small, constantly writing and re-writing the “rules” to impose whatever desires it currently might have, regardless of whether or not the law itself has changed, and often precisely because the law hasn’t been changed. There are so many regulatory actions that it is impossible for the average citizen to have any idea what his government is doing. The Federal Register publishes between 2,500 and 4,500 new “rules” every single year. The effects of these regulations, laws really, permeates every area of American life. There is not an industry in existence that is left untouched by the federal bureaucracy. Even the most basic and simple of our daily actions are governed by regulatory “rules”.

In Federalist 62 James Madison wrote:

It will be of little avail to the people that the laws are made by men of their own choice if the laws be so voluminous that they cannot be read, or so incoherent that they cannot be understood.

The federal bureaucracy fails on both fronts. Not only is it making laws so voluminous and incoherent that they cannot be read or understood (or even known, to be honest) by the people, but they aren’t even made by men of their own choice. It would be easy to blame this on the institutions of government itself, and certainly there is blame to be laid there. Presidents have routinely expanded executive power through the creative use of the federal bureaucracy. Congress could stop it if wanted to by simply passing laws eliminating the agencies, but instead it does the opposite, not only creating more agencies but writing deliberately vague legislation that invites regulatory agencies to fill in the blanks with its own will. And the Supreme Court has long since ceased apply the law or constitution, choosing instead to rule based on political preferences.

But the real fault lies in we the people. It was the people that elected Franklin Roosevelt 4 times despite his expansive and unconstitutional use and abuse of the federal regulatory bureaucracy to do things that congress would not do. It is the people that elected Barack Obama twice, despite his open contempt for congress’ role as the voice of the people, proclaiming “We’re not just going to be waiting for legislation in order to make sure that we’re providing Americans the kind of help they need. I’ve got a pen and I’ve got a phone.” It is the people that elected a congress that thinks that knowing what is in legislation is what comes after having passed it. Franklin’s cynicism about the people was well founded. He gave us a Republic and we have frittered it away.

On this Fourth of July, our Independence Day, it might be useful to read through the Declaration of Independence, and remember what its purpose was. It was not merely a declaration of America’s independence from Britain, but it was also a justification for the Declaration itself. While the first few lines are the most remembered from grade school civics lessons, the body of the document is comprised largely of a list of transgressions that King George III was said to have rained down upon the colonists, compelling them to revolt. It is worth noting one of them in particular.

He has erected a multitude of New Offices, and sent hither swarms of Officers to harrass our people, and eat out their substance.

A better description of the modern regulatory state has never been written. It is high time we took Jefferson’s lead and declare our independence from it.

Thought Experiment 5/26/15

If our federal tax system had a voluntary box for contributions above income tax due, and if the box allowed for contributions to be earmarked for any of eight major federal budget “needs”:
1]  debt reduction
2]  defense and national security
3]  medicaid
4]  highway, dam, and port maintenance
5]  national parks
6] VA
7] ag subsidies
8] health subsidies through ACA
9] Returned Directly to the State Treasury of Your Choice__________________________
10] Existing specific federal budget item of your choice_______
Would you check off for any?  $50?  $500?  $5000?
Which functions do you think would draw the most contributions?
Which the least?
Assuming the earmarks would be honored, would Congress immediately offset the predicted earmarks in the following year’s budget?  Would that be good, in that voters would have changed budget priorities to directly suit themselves, or bad, in that Congress would just waste the money?
Would it make a difference to you if the contribution were tax deductible in the following year?  I exclude the possibility of it becoming a tax credit as that would defeat this mind experiment. But see below.

In the alternate mind experiment, in which one can choose to contribute one’s tax payment to selected budget items, which items do you think would be funded?

—–

I will post this at PL.  The reactions there should be – uh- different.

Apple Makes Racism Worse

Tell me again how WaPo is a right wing media organ?

Washington Post’s coverage of the new “controversy” regarding Apple’s update of available emojis updated the venerable set of default emojis to include people of color, so it is no longer the exclusionary sea of beige and yellow it was before.

Of course, it didn’t take long for it to become a problem, as now racists were able to use ethnic emojis in sharing their racist nonsense online. The correct take on this, is, of course: what did you expect? People are idiots. WaPo’s editorial take, however, is more nuanced:

Apple on Thursday introduced its new racially diverse emoji, allowing users to cycle through various shades of white and brown to customize their emoji’s skin colors.  Some rejoiced, with choruses of “We made it” flanked by newly black praise-hand emoji filling Instagram and Twitter. Some even professed to cry tears of joy over this sign of racial inclusion. But already, Apple’s well-intentioned gesture to human diversity has taken a turn for the worse. The emoji are being used to make racist comments on social media and insert questions of race in texts and tweets where it may never have arisen before. Instead of correcting its mistake — excluding people of color from emoji — Apple has, in some ways, made the situation worse.

Catch that? Apple has made things worse. This is Apple’s fault. Not the nutburgers and trolls using the new emojis in racist way, but Apple, for somehow not preventing it.

In trying to advocate for racial inclusivity in its iOS 8.3 update, Apple has allowed for further racial segregation with these new emoji. Because I’m black, should I now feel compelled to use the “appropriate” brown-skinned nail-painting emoji? Why would I use the white one? Now in simple text messages and tweets, I have to identify myself racially.

See what Apple has done! It’s forcing minorities to identify themselves racially in text messages. Apple did this. Not all the people who have been complaining it was racist that there weren’t ethnically-correct emojis. Apple.

The author goes on to suggest that Apple should have made the emojis even more ethnically identifiable, somehow, not just white emojis with a paint job. Yet I can think of no way to add additional ethnic identifiers to emojis and have that go over better. And it would certainly be used be racists to, you know, be racist.

… there’s nothing specifically “black” about an emoji with browner skin. Deepening the skin color of a previously white emoji doesn’t make the emoji not white. It’s just a bastardized emoji blackface. The blond-haired emoji man and the blue-eyed emoji princess are clearly white, but you can slip them into a darker-colored skin. These new figures aren’t emoji of color; they’re just white emoji wearing masks.

And, finally, the author blames Apple for the Political Correctness run amok:

 The company should’ve never made race a question, making the emojis raceless with yellow faces and leaving it at that.

Because Apple made it an issue. Cuz, you know. Capitalism. Or something.