Morning Report: Home prices rise 5% 9/27/16

Posted on September 27, 2016 by Brent Nyitray

Vital Statistics:

Last Change
S&P Futures 2142.2 2.0
Eurostoxx Index 338.6 -1.0
Oil (WTI) 44.8 0.5
US dollar index 86.4 -0.2
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 1.56%
Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA 103.3
Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA 104.2
30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 3.47

Markets are lower this morning on no real news. Bonds and MBS are up small.

Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton had their first debate last night. Early polls are showing Hillary won, however the debates went up against Monday Night Football, so the sample is going to skew female. Major media outlets are declaring the winner based on their ideological leanings: Bloomberg says Hillary won, and the WSJ says that Trump won. Did the debate change anyone’s vote? We’ll see, but my suspicion is that people’s minds are more or less made up at this point.

Global bonds have been rallying, but the US 10 year hasn’t been following suit. The German Bund is now back at -15 basis points. Meanwhile, Blackrock is advising caution in Treasuries as the Fed starts hiking rates. Global central banks are selling Treasuries, which is putting pressure on yields.

Tim Duy says December is a good bet for another tightening, but next year’s voting members will skew more dovish than the current FOMC.

Home prices were flat month-over-month and are up 5% for the year, according to the Case-Shiller home price index. The real estate indices are beginning to show a slowdown in home price appreciation. Until we start seeing wage inflation, real estate prices will be stretched versus incomes. The labor market continues to send mixed signals.

Filed under: Debates, Economy, Morning Report, politics | 3 Comments »

3rd (and final) Presidential Debate — Foreign Policy

Posted on October 22, 2012 by okiegirl

Thoughts?

Filed under: 2012, Debates | 19 Comments »

Presidential Debate Open Thread

Posted on October 16, 2012 by Michigoose

Don’t know if any of you will be interested, but I thought I’d toss this out there.  Open thread, so if you don’t feel like saying anything about the debate, chime in with whatever’s on your mind!

And I totally stole thisfrom Mark

Filed under: Debates, Open Thread | 177 Comments »

Debate Night

Posted on October 3, 2012 by lmsinca

This will be an open thread, live blogging the first Presidential debate.

From a variety of sources this is what we know:

The first presidential debate of 2012 will be held on Wednesday, Oct. 3, at the University of Denver in Denver, Colo. The moderator is Jim Lehrer, executive editor of the PBS NewsHour.

The Commission on Presidential Debates said the 2012 presidential debates will be moderated by a single individual and take place from 9 to 10:30 p.m. Eastern Standard Time. Neither of the candidates will be permitted to give opening statements, but will be allowed 2 minutes for closing statements.

The first debate will focus on domestic policy. The specific topics will be announced several weeks beforehand, and the debate will be divided into six 15-minute segments focusing on each. The moderator will ask a question, and each candidate will have 2 minutes to respond.

It should go something like this:

A debate that will consist of a total of six time segments of approximately fifteen minutes each in length. The issues to be discussed by the candidates have been agreed to in advance of the debate. Lehrer said on September 19, as he announced the issues that would be debated on Wednesday, that the first three segments would focus on “the economy”, while the final three would discuss “health care, the role of government, and governing”.

Each candidate will be asked a question by the moderator, and the candidate will respond with his answer, representing his personal view on the question. Some new proposals may be introduced during the debate, and while the debate will have few direct interactions between the candidates, both candidates are expected to question the proposals of their opponent.

And then a little hopeful thinking from one of Nova’s links:

Who knows? Maybe one day there will be candidates who will see it as politically advantageous to reveal themselves in this way. In the meantime, take note of a meaningful rule change announced this year by the presidential debate commission. For the first time, in the first and third events, the candidates will each get two minutes to respond to the opening question for each 15-minute segment, and then “the moderator will use the balance of the time in the segment for a discussion.” That could mean up to 11 minutes of free-wheeling talk between the candidates. In a 90-minute debate, that could happen six times.

That is not insignificant. And if the candidates use that time not to make speeches or repeat talking points, or to ignore an important question that was just asked, but instead to listen, engage and think in a way the audience can witness, we just might get a presidential debate that deserves the label.

What are you looking for in the debate? Do debates ever change the trajectory of an election? Why are there so few chances for third party candidates to participate? Will we hear any surprises, policy-wise, from what we’ve heard on the campaign trail?

And lastly, here are some body language tells we can all watch for…………hahahahahaha

1. An itchy nose could be a sign that someone isn’t telling the truth. If someone is scratching their nose, there could be an issue

2. Hands in pockets are a sign of insecurity

3. Crossed arms don’t necessarily mean a person is angry or protective: They could just be cold in the studio where the debates are taking place!

4. Touching the neck could be a sign that someone is threatened or feels insecure

5. Finger pointing is a sign of aggression and it can make the audience mistrust the speaker

Another telltale sign, experts say, is frequent blinking by a speaker. It might indicate that person is uncomfortable with the words they are saying.

Filed under: 2012, Debates, Mitt Romney, Obama | 157 Comments »

Republican Debate #17

Posted on January 19, 2012 by okiegirl

Watched the R debate tonight. Seemed to me the gloves came off, and it got pretty cutthroat at times. Anybody else watch? I didn’t keep notes, but there were some statements that really struck me. One example: in a litany of what Obama is doing wrong, Romney included that Obama “wants the government to run this country.” Really? As opposed to whom or what? The government is the surrogate for the people as expressed by our votes.  It was notable that  Romney has already pivoted sharply to the general election.

Notes/commentary by anyone else?

A few links from Ashot:

All about the Benjamins….and Newt’s marriage(s)

EJ Dionne thinks Gingrich won and may have done enough to win South Carolina.

I thought Jennifer Rubin had a few good lines in her take on the debate.

And last, but not least, The Fix weighs in on winners (Santorum, Gingrich, Mitt not on taxes) and losers (Ron Paul).

Filed under: 2012, Debates | 56 Comments »

GOP Security and Foreign Policy Debate

Posted on November 23, 2011 by ashot

So apparently there was another Republican debate last night and the candidates discusseed Security and Foreign Policy…again.

For those, like myself, who were too busy gauging their eyes out or refuse to watch another debate until jets fly across the screen again, here are a handful of articles discussing the debate:

The NY Times has a good summary of the goings on. And I enjoyed this live blogging of the debate from the WSJ. My personal favorite was Gingrich (who apparently is the new front runner) defending the Patriot Act by noting “All of us will be in danger for the rest of our lives.” Good times. I’ll be sure to pass that heart warming nugget on to my son if he ever decides to leave the womb.

Not surprisingly and hardly unique to Republican politicians, there were some factual inaccuracies made by the candidates.
Not to be outdone, the WaPo fact checker points out 15 statements that weren’t entirely consistent with reality.

What’s a debate if we can’t instantly declare winners and losers (anyone who watched the debate falls, I suspect, into the later category)CBS News takes a Little League approach and names virtually everyone a winner. Apparently Cain called Wolf Blitzer, Blitz, which is cute. And in breaking news Jon Huntsman and Ron Paul are apparently running for the Republican nomination.Cillizza sees Ron Paul as a loser in the debate mostly because the rest of the Republicans were hawkish and Ron Paul is decidedly not.

Last, but not least, no news on the baby front. We’ve tried every remedy known to man and if the baby is not here by Tuesday we’re headed to the hospital for induction. Thanks for all the well wishes and an early Happy Thanksgiving to everyone.

Filed under: Debates | 27 Comments »

Views on the Republican Debate

Posted on September 23, 2011 by ashot

Based on the comments here and the articles I’ve perused on the web, it seems like Romney was the clear winner last night.

According to Dan Balz and Perry Bacon Jr., Perry and Obama were the primary targets in last night’s debate.

Clizza saw last night as a clear win for Romney and a loss for Perry.

And in one of my favorite columns after any debate, the fact checker weighs in on the telling of fibs from last night.

Last but not least, we’ll give a Republican viewpoint with Jennifer Rubin saw Perry fade and Santorum get a big win.

Meanwhile, I liked okie’s point about what a contrast of Romney’s 0% capital gains tax with the Obama’s proposal. Does Romney explain somewhere how he proposes to pay for that tax cut?

Sorry that these are all from the WaPo, but work is too crazy for me to pull from too many sources and I’m trying to contribute to this great blog.

Filed under: Debates, Tea Party | 15 Comments »