|US dollar index||86.4||-0.2|
|10 Year Govt Bond Yield||1.56%|
|Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA||103.3|
|Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA||104.2|
|30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage||3.47|
Markets are lower this morning on no real news. Bonds and MBS are up small.
Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton had their first debate last night. Early polls are showing Hillary won, however the debates went up against Monday Night Football, so the sample is going to skew female. Major media outlets are declaring the winner based on their ideological leanings: Bloomberg says Hillary won, and the WSJ says that Trump won. Did the debate change anyone’s vote? We’ll see, but my suspicion is that people’s minds are more or less made up at this point.
Global bonds have been rallying, but the US 10 year hasn’t been following suit. The German Bund is now back at -15 basis points. Meanwhile, Blackrock is advising caution in Treasuries as the Fed starts hiking rates. Global central banks are selling Treasuries, which is putting pressure on yields.
Tim Duy says December is a good bet for another tightening, but next year’s voting members will skew more dovish than the current FOMC.
Home prices were flat month-over-month and are up 5% for the year, according to the Case-Shiller home price index. The real estate indices are beginning to show a slowdown in home price appreciation. Until we start seeing wage inflation, real estate prices will be stretched versus incomes. The labor market continues to send mixed signals.