Brent Nyitray
Fairlington Blade
Let the mutherfuker burn!
jnc4p
Kevin S. Willis
Michigoose
lmsinca
markinaustin
Memetrics
novahockey
quarterback
ScottC
yellojktVital Statistics:
Stocks are higher this morning on no real news. Bonds and MBS are down. Jerome Powell will be speaking at 10:00 am.
Bond yields have been climbing, much to the chagrin of mortgage bankers. Over the past week, the 10 year has tacked on 24 basis points in yield. Some of this is probably due to hawkish comments out of the Fed, but it appears to be global, with the German Bund, UK Gilt, and Japanese Government Bond all moving up in lockstep.
I suspect some people have been hoping that this increase was driven by debt ceiling theater and once we get a resolution yields will begin falling. That might not be in the cards unless the US hits a recession. Note the Atlanta Fed GDP Now model sees 2.9% growth in Q2, which is pretty robust. That said, the GDP Now model was consistently too high in Q1.
Independent Mortgage Banks lost $1,972 on each loan they originated in Q1, according to the MBA. This is an improvement from the $2,812 they lost in the fourth quarter.
“A net production loss of 68 basis points in the first quarter of the year is an improvement over the record 99-basis-point loss reported in the fourth quarter of 2022,” said Marina Walsh, CMB, MBA’s Vice President of Industry Analysis. “Conditions continue to be challenging for the industry, with now four consecutive quarters of production losses and nine consecutive quarters of volume declines.”
Added Walsh, “One silver lining from the first quarter is that production revenues improved by 40 basis points. However, costs continued to escalate with the further drop in volume and reached more than $13,000 per loan despite substantial personnel reductions.”
The Index of Leading Economic Indicators declined again in April, according to the Conference Board. “The LEI for the US declined for the thirteenth consecutive month in April, signaling a worsening economic outlook,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. “Weaknesses among underlying components were widespread—but less so than in March’s reading, which resulted in a smaller decline. Only stock prices and manufacturers’ new orders for both capital and consumer goods improved in April. Importantly, the LEI continues to warn of an economic downturn this year. The Conference Board forecasts a contraction of economic activity starting in Q2 leading to a mild recession by mid-2023.”
Filed under: Economy |
All Things in Moderation 
Janet Yellen thinks we need more bank mergers
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3973512-bank-stocks-tumble-as-janet-yellen-calls-for-more-mergers-report
That is gonna throw a turd in the left’s punchbowl
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One bank to rule them all, one bank to find them, One bank to bring them all, and in the darkness bind them; In the Land of Washington where the shadows lie.
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Opps:
“What happened? New polling from AP/NORC finds that few Americans are paying close attention to the standoff between Congress and President Biden over whether and how to raise the debt ceiling before the U.S. defaults on its debts. However, more than 6 in 10 Americans overall—including 58 percent of Democrats and 71 percent of Republicans—favor increasing the debt limit “only if lawmakers include reductions on the deficit” compared to less than one fifth who favor an increase “without conditions.””
https://www.liberalpatriot.com/p/tlpm-digest-no-stop-signs-speed-limit
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Ezra tries to reset expectations:
“Liberals Are Persuading Themselves of a Debt Ceiling Plan That Won’t Work”
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I’m sure they already have it but if they didn’t, or didn’t have the latest software updates, the Russians will have them now.
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/05/19/fighter-jets-ukraine-biden-00097846
Also, no way there won’t be US ground crews servicing them.
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F-16’s have been exported for years.
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Not to Ukraine.
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Yeah, but I’m pretty sure the Russians already have one.
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Not shocking. I’m thinking that software is what really makes its work and that’s subject to upgrades. Just more escalation against an entity that is obviously not a threat to Western Europe.
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Got to love the Post’s understatement here:
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It’s racist if they don’t do it. Confiscate land of white people if necessary.
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They can start with Gavin Newsom’s winery:
https://plumpjackwinery.com/
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Nice one sentence summation:
“The core belief of critical queer theorists is that homosexuality is not a part of human nature because there is no such thing as human nature; and that everything is socially constructed, even the body.”
https://substack.com/notes/post/p-122491564
Obviously that’s Sullivan’s focus, but the truncated version is more on point:
“The core belief of critical queer theorists is that there is no such thing as human nature; and that everything is socially constructed, even the body.”
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So, does that mean all gay people are really just closeted trannies?
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That’s the argument being made by the trans community (and ironically Iran).
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A lengthy discussion of the impact of social media on teens’ mental health that completely omits any discussion of the increase in transgender identification occurring during the same time period.
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It’s a total mystery, a real head scratcher we’ll never figure out.
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This generation of kids is the most engineered in history. The egghead experts and activists have run the show completely.
And this is the result.
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Some good pieces on the ending of education reform as a national priority:
https://wesleyyang.substack.com/p/taught-for-america
https://www.slowboring.com/p/the-strange-death-of-education-reform
https://www.slowboring.com/p/the-strange-death-of-education-reform-3f5
TL:DR – Espousing “Closing the achievement gap” as a goal is now considered racist.
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Lol
For hate’s sake I spit my last breath at thee.
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Everyone knows the media is full of shit these days.
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Matt Orfalea on Taibbi’s substack:
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JFC.
https://redstate.com/bobhoge/2023/05/21/former-defense-secretary-robert-gates-reveals-the-biggest-threat-to-the-usa-and-its-not-china-n749386
We get it, it’s too hard to get people to support invading all the countries.
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So what’s the final solution to this existential threat, I wonder?
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“This lack of civility is, I think, something new and really is pretty pervasive in the Congress. And it sets a pretty bad example for the rest of the country.”
As opposed to the days of canings and duels.
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No shit. It’s all about making sure spending stays on track.
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jnc:
”And it sets a pretty bad example for the rest of the country.”
Who in their right mind would ever look to Congress people as an example to be followed in the first place? The self-regard of the Washington establishment knows no bounds.
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