Brent Nyitray
Fairlington Blade
Let the mutherfuker burn!
jnc4p
Kevin S. Willis
Michigoose
lmsinca
markinaustin
Memetrics
novahockey
quarterback
ScottC
yellojktVital Statistics:
Happy Dave Brubeck Day. Stocks are lower this morning as regional bank fears continue to simmer. Bonds and MBS are up.
As expected, the FOMC hiked the Fed Funds rate by 25 basis points and signaled they are ready to pause. It removed language referring to further tightening of policy. During the press conference, Powell pushed back on the idea that the Fed was ready to cut rates. If you look strictly at the dual mandate, that makes sense. On a scale of 1-10, the labor market is at a 9.8, while inflation remains way too high. He acknowledged that it will take a while to get us down to 2% inflation, but emphasized the Fed isn’t willing to relax that target to something like 3%. FWIW, inflation averaged about 3% from 1985 – 2000 and I think most people would regard that time period as pretty comfortable economically.
The bond market was already strong due to the regional bank situation, with PacWest falling 50%, so there wasn’t much reaction to the new language on the long end, although the 2 year did rally on the announcement. The Fed Funds futures are now predicting the Fed will do nothing at the June meeting, and there is a 50-50 chance of a rate cut at the July meeting. The futures are not factoring in any more rate hikes, and they see 75 basis points of easing by the end of the year.
Nonfarm productivity fell 2.7% in the first quarter as output rose 0.2% and hours worked increased 3%. Compared to a year ago, productivity fell 0.9%. Unit labor costs rose 6.3%. Productivity is an inflation-killer, so this is bad news for the Fed.
The regional banks are getting slugged again today, with PacWest down another 40%, and First Horizon down big after its merger with TD bank is terminated. Western Alliance is down despite a press release that updated the markets on its deposit situation. Zions is down as well. If anything will push the Fed to cut rates, this is going to be the catalyst.
Job cuts in April fell 25% month-over-month to 66.995. They are still triple the number they were a year ago. Retail led, along with technology. Separately, initial jobless claims rose to 242k.
Mortgage applications decreased last week as purchases fell 2% and refis fell 1%. “Mortgage applications decreased last week, despite rates declining slightly for the first time in three weeks. The 30-year fixed rate decreased five basis points to 6.5 percent, which is still 114 basis points higher than a year ago,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “Elevated rates continue to both impact homebuyer affordability and weaken demand for refinancing. Home purchase activity has been very sensitive to rates and local market trends, including the very low supply of existing-home inventory. However, newly constructed homes account for a growing share of inventory, giving more options for prospective buyers. The jumbo-conforming spread continues to narrow, an indication that there is reduced lender appetite for jumbo loans following the recent turmoil in the banking sector and heightened concerns about liquidity. The spread was 13 basis points last week, after being as wide as 64 basis points in November 2022.”
Filed under: Economy |
All Things in Moderation 
Trump will now be charged with Seditious Conspiracy by the end of the year.
https://news.yahoo.com/ex-proud-boys-leader-tarrio-150649979.html
Buckle up because the Nat Sec State will burn everything down. Should be entertaining as hell!
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McWing:
In a sane world, this conviction would actually be good news for Trump. The claim against him is that he incited an attack on the Capitol with his J6 speech. But he can’t have “incited” an act that was planned in advance, which is what the seditious conspiracy conviction says happened. In fact, the defense in this case tried to argue precisely that, ie that J6 was caused by Trump, and the prosecution had to argue against that.
However, given that the left’s modus operandi is Calvinball, and the justice department is now a subsidiary of the left, I won’t at all be surprised to see the Biden DOJ present a theory of the case going forward that it explicitly rejected in this one.
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Agreed. He’ll be in convicted and sentenced before the election is my guess. Will be entertaining as hell to watch this unfold.
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BUD earnings conference call concentrated mainly on Bud Light and the Dylan Mulvaney situation.
https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2023/05/04/anheuser-busch-inbevnv-bud-q1-2023-earnings-call-t/
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Any nervousness or reporting here on the debt ceiling?
And in a sane world Trump would already be in prison!
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couldn’t care less
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Default. What’s the downside?
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No, not really. First, there’s enough revenue coming in to service Treasury debt and interest as it comes due and thus avoid a default on actual US debt. The Treasury most likely already has a contingency plan to do exactly that and then prioritize the other payments or delay them all equally.
Should the debt ceiling not be raised, the administration will actually be in an interesting position as they will get to determine what bills get paid and when they get paid. This gives them a lot of power which the Republicans apparently haven’t thought through the consequences of. LBJ wouldn’t hesitate to use it in the same situation.
It’s unfortunate that the media is just repeating the Biden administration’s talking points instead of doing an actual analysis of what would most likely happen if the debt ceiling isn’t raised.
And no, there’s not going to be a 1 trillion dollar coin or a unilateral invocation of the 14th Amendment to just ignore the debt ceiling.
The Washington Post is starting to report that the administration’s position is weakening, so I suspect there will be a last minute deal to raise the debt ceiling with some spending cuts. Or more specifically, reductions in the future growth of spending vs the existing baseline.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/05/04/white-house-biden-debt-ceiling/
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lms:
Any nervousness or reporting here on the debt ceiling?
No…as jnc explained, and as I have explained repeatedly every time the debt ceiling has become an issue since we started ATiM, we are not under any threat of defaulting on our debt. (Memories are short, I guess.)
And in a sane world Trump would already be in prison!
For what?
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At least JNC has a response………………..the rest of you are just being assholes…………..yep I said it!
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you’re wrong
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I’m not wrong Brent, you have done nothing to engage here with me and just shut me down no matter what I link or say. I’ve kept my mouth shut so many times here when you GUYS go into your locker room talk about dick size and HOT women………………All I know right now is that the majority of Americans, men and women, are in support of the policies that Dems advance and Donald Trump is a criminal. R legislatures are doing some great work advancing abhorrent gun laws, making criminals of women and their doctors, shitting on LGBTQ families and banning books……………….WOW
I know you don’t think this is an echo chamber here but as someone looking in from the outside………….it really is.
I would try to show up if you guys just didn’t shut me down every time or accuse me of being a baby killer (Scott)…………..and I’m sorry to say that Brent is the BEST at it. You don’t scare me but you do make me feel both unwelcome and less than valid.
Congrats to Brent for owning this space!
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you GUYS go into your locker room talk about dick size and HOT women
In fairness, I’m the only one that talks about hawt broads and dick sizes. Probably because I myself have a tiny dick and am, well, impotent. I want credit where it’s due, dammit!
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Not true McWing but nice to take the fall for the rest of the guys. I won’t embarrass you all with quotes but it was pretty typical……………and I’ll leave it there. Maybe it’s too bad you’re not a STAR like Trump and can kiss and grab a woman by the
pussy without even asking? Or maybe you’re all too HOT that you don’t even have to try?
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The only chicks I’m able to get are the ones I pay.
But I still think it’s only me who talks broads and dicks.
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lms:
Not true McWing
Sure it is.
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I’m not the one picking a fight.
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Hope you’re doing well, LMS. Wish you would come around more often. How’s Walt?
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I’m sorry McWing but I really doubt your wish here as far as my attention here. Mostly I’m Persona Non Grata but I do appreciate your interest in our health…………….He’s struggling but hanging in there and I might be headed to my 90’s I guess according to my docs……………..If I don’t get cancer I’m on a great longevity path!
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Sorry he is suffering, that is something that no one here wishes on anybody. I’m glad you’re able to be there for him and I hope you’re able to have your kids provide you some relief as well.
As for engagement, you’re wrong, I sincerely wish you would post and engage more. Will you end up changing minds? Probably not, but so what? We, all of us, have different first principals, aside from our shared humanity, so our perspective on all things will undoubtedly be different and deep seated.
That said, I’ve come to realize the execution of the Middle Eastern wars were completely wrong and wasteful. That our trade policies and foreign policy overall has been a complete and total disaster for us and the rest of the world. That all government is corrupt and the only way to minimize the corruption is to keep it as small as possible.
You don’t like my sarcasm or crude language, ok. I many don’t and I’m just as confused as to why not. That said, well… er,… that said I guess.
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lms:
the rest of you are just being assholes
Typical leftist double standard. You expect others to engage you and your questions even as you post nothing but drive-bys.
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Honestly Scott, if I felt like my opinions here were worth anything to you or the rest I wouldn’t just drive by. The best I can do here now, as the odd man out, is drive by with a thought. I know it doesn’t make a difference here but I try! Any debate is a losing proposition for me and I need to sleep at night without the stress of trying to convince 5 or 6 men that I might have a valid point.
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While I appreciate that if one took the reporting in the MSM at face value it would appear that there’s a calamity about to happen and thus the replies may appear to be overly dismissive or flippant, I also recognize the game being played here where the administration is getting friendly reporters to write stories favoring them to improve their position going into the actual negotiations.
This is all the usual Washington BS and everyone has seen this before.
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I actually agree with your assessment here Jnc. I can’t help worrying though. And it’s not just MSM that I listen to, just an FYI. And Washington is always full of BS, that’s why the rest of us need to worry……………LOL
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lms:
And Washington is always full of BS
Yet you still want to give it more power. Go figure.
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Unfortunately this seems to be a broad consensus, even among much of the GOP, the only debate being who gets to wield the power.
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